Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 16:38 UTC

Key Developments and Changes (Since 16:08 UTC)

The primary updates involve confirmations and details surrounding the ongoing prisoner exchange, continued drone activity, and further reports of damage and casualties.

Prisoner Exchanges & Related Developments

• Confirmation of 21 Ukrainian Airborne Troops Returned: The Ukrainian Airborne Assault Forces confirm the return of 21 of their servicemen as part of the larger exchange of 150 Ukrainian POWs. This provides a specific breakdown of one unit involved. Images accompany the announcement, depicting returning soldiers, transport vehicles, and medical personnel.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances Confirmed (Kupyansk Direction): Russian sources report further advances south of Zakhidne along the Oskil River, claiming an additional 1km advance and posing a threat to Ukrainian forces near Kindrashivka. They also claim to have established a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil near Topoli, creating a potential launching point for an offensive. Furthermore, Russian advances are reported near Dvorichna, with claims of localized breakthroughs and the encirclement of small Ukrainian units. Fighting is reported near Zahryzove and Kolesnykivka, with Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian positions across the Oskil River. Russian forces are also reportedly advancing west of Lozova and south/west of Zelenyi Hai.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• Drone Activity: Multiple reports of drone activity in the Zaporizhzhia region, with warnings from the Russian side about UAVs heading towards Vasylivka and Melitopol. Increased air defense readiness is reported on the line from Vasylivka to Crimea-Berdiansk.

Donetsk Region

• Kramatorsk: Russian sources claim a strike in Kramatorsk destroyed a NATO armored vehicle parking lot and an ammunition depot, including Excalibur shells.

Kherson Region

• Civilian Casualties: The Kherson Regional Prosecutor's Office reports 30 Russian attacks on the region on February 5, using UAVs, FPV drones, and artillery. One civilian was killed and 17 injured (14 civilians and 3 police officers). The attacks damaged 17 civilian objects, including homes and vehicles. Specific incidents include:
  • Antonivka (suburb of Kherson): A 52-year-old man killed by a drone attack. Eight civilians and three police officers injured throughout the day.
  • Kherson City: Five people injured.
  • Havrylivka (Beryslav district): One civilian injured by artillery fire.

Dnipropetrovsk Region

• Attacks on Nikopol: The head of the Dnipropetrovsk Regional Military Administration reports almost 20 attacks on the Nikopol area, targeting Nikopol, Pokrovsk, and Marhanets communities with artillery, Grad MLRS, and drones. Damage includes infrastructure, 10 private houses, 2 outbuildings, cars, solar panels, and power lines.
• Synelnykivskyi District: Artillery shelling damaged a private house.
• No Casualties Reported: No deaths or injuries were reported in the Dnipropetrovsk region attacks.
• Pharmacy Robbery in Dnipro: A criminal gang reportedly looted a pharmacy for over 2 million UAH.

Kursk Region

• Zelensky on Kursk: President Zelensky confirms the Kursk operation will be an important part of negotiations, and believes Ukraine will succeed.
• Compensation to Residents: Alexander Khinshtein, the acting governor of the Kursk region, reported that 112,000 residents of the border area received compensation of 150,000 rubles for lost property. He requested an increase in this compensation.
• Putin on Kursk: Putin will consider the proposal from the administration.

Geopolitical Developments

• Russia-Belarus Security Agreement: The State Duma will prioritize the ratification of the security agreement with Belarus. The agreement emphasizes its importance in light of "constant provocations" from EU countries.
• US Aid to Ukraine: Zelensky stated that communication with the US regarding aid is ongoing, with meetings and calls planned with the American team focusing on the war. He confirmed that current aid is continuing but stated that new packages are not yet being discussed. He also says that he will not risk the war against Russia without American support.
• USAID closure: Discussions arise about the strategic implications of USAID's closure.
• Diplomacy: Zelensky stated the Kursk operation would be an important part of diplomatic negotiations.

Other

• Azerbaijan Aid: Azerbaijan has allocated $1 million for the supply of electrical equipment to Ukraine as humanitarian aid.
• Propaganda: Ukrainian sources report on a Russian soldier shooting his comrade.

Updated Situation Summary

The successful prisoner exchange continues to be a significant development, with the return of 21 Ukrainian airborne troops providing further detail.

Russian advances in the Kharkiv region, particularly around Kupyansk and the Oskil River, remain a major point of concern. The establishment of a bridgehead across the Oskil River, confirmed by multiple sources, creates a new potential line of advance for Russian forces, representing a critical shift in the tactical situation.

Continued drone activity and attacks on civilian infrastructure in the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions underscore the ongoing intensity of the conflict, despite no reported casualties in Dnipropetrovsk.

Zelensky's comments on the Kursk region and its role in future negotiations, along with the reported compensation to residents and Putin's involvement, highlight the increasing political and strategic significance of this area.

The discussion about US aid to Ukraine highlights uncertainty over future packages, while affirming current support, indicates ongoing diplomatic engagement.

The strategic discussion and reports on the closure of USAID highlight a potential reorganization of US foreign efforts.

The reports of the Russia-Belarus security agreement continue to highlight a greater risk of escalation.