Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 16:08 UTC

Key Developments and Changes (Since 15:45 UTC)

Several significant developments have occurred, primarily focused around continued prisoner exchanges, intensified fighting in specific regions, and further strategic posturing between Russia and Belarus.

Prisoner Exchanges & Related Developments

Confirmation of 150 Ukrainian POWs Returned: Multiple sources confirm the return of 150 Ukrainian servicemen in the 61st prisoner exchange. This includes a detailed breakdown of the units represented:
- 108 from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (7 from Territorial Defense Forces, 26 from the Navy, 3 from the Air Force).
- 22 National Guard soldiers.
- 19 border guards.
- 1 National Police officer.
- Personnel from various regions, including those who defended Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Sumy, and Kyiv.
- National Guard personnel who guarded the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, and those involved in the Kursk operation.
- Ranks: 47 sergeants, 69 soldiers, 16 sailors, and 18 officers.
Poor Health of Returned POWs: Many returned POWs are reported to be in poor health, with some held for over 2.5 years, highlighting the humanitarian aspect of these exchanges.
Local Impact in Dnipropetrovsk: 18 of the released POWs are residents of Dnipropetrovsk, highlighting the localized impact of these exchanges.
Russian POW Returns Confirmed: 150 Russian POWs released.

Kharkiv Region

Confirmed Russian Bridgehead (Oskil River): Russian forces have established a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, south of Topoli. This is a significant tactical gain, potentially opening a new axis of advance. Ukrainian sources confirm this, noting an initial failed Ukrainian attempt to cross, followed by a successful Russian crossing. This confirms earlier reports.
Deep State Update: Russian forces established a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, south of Topoli. The first Ukrainian crossing attempt failed.
Zelensky Statements: Russia dropped at least 11 UCAVs, and 11 guided bombs in the region. 125 children and their families must be evacuated from Kindrashivska and Velykoburlutska hromadas. 122 residents on the left bank of Kupyansk must be evacuated.

Donetsk Region

Pokrovsk Direction Intensifies: Confirmed through multiple reports, this area is now experiencing the fiercest fighting, with continued Russian advances and pressure on Ukrainian supply lines. Reports suggest a shift in Russian tactics towards flanking maneuvers to encircle the city. Ukrainian reserves are struggling to maintain defense lines.
Drone Warfare: Drone operators of the Special Operations Forces reportedly destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers.
Propaganda: A possible piece of propaganda was released, reporting on the alleged torture and killing of a Ukrainian soldier after being mobilized.

Kursk Region

Continued Fighting: The situation in the Kursk region remains highly dynamic.
Zelensky on Kursk: The Kursk operation will be an important part of negotiations.

Strategic & Political Developments

Russia-Belarus Security Agreement Ratified: Russia has ratified a treaty with Belarus stating that an attack with conventional weapons threatening either state's sovereignty can be responded to with nuclear weapons. This significantly escalates the potential for a wider conflict. The treaty also states any attack on one country will be considered an act of aggression against the whole Union.
Argentinian Actions: Argentina decides to leave the WHO, after the US.
WHO is losing its funding: The potential withdrawal of Argentina from the WHO, following the US, signals a potential shift in international health cooperation and may reflect broader geopolitical realignments.
Azerbaijan: The nation of Azerbaijan will donate electrical equipment to Ukraine.
Propaganda: Russian media reports on "torture and killing" of a mobilized Ukrainian soldier.

Drone Warfare and Air Alerts

Widespread Drone Activity: Reports of continued widespread drone activity, with alerts and movements across multiple regions of Ukraine.
Air Raid Alerts in Zaporizhzhia: Repeated air raid alerts in Zaporizhzhia, indicating ongoing aerial threats.
Ukrainian Air Force Alerts: The Ukrainian Air Force reports threats of Russian drone attacks and guided aerial bombs in various regions, including Kharkiv, Donetsk, Sumy, and Poltava.
Russian Drone Strikes: Ukrainian sources report a Russian drone strike on a temporary deployment point in Zolochiv, Kharkiv Oblast, disguised as a civilian building (sports school), destroying the building, vehicles, and an ammunition depot.

Updated Situation Summary

The most significant tactical development is the confirmed Russian bridgehead across the Oskil River, creating a new potential line of advance. This, coupled with intensified fighting in the Pokrovsk direction, represents a serious escalation of pressure on Ukrainian forces.

The formalization of the Russia-Belarus security agreement, explicitly mentioning potential nuclear weapon use, represents a major strategic escalation. It significantly raises the stakes of the conflict and alters the deterrence calculus.

The continued prisoner exchanges, while a positive humanitarian development, highlight the ongoing intensity of the conflict and the large numbers of captured personnel on both sides.

Widespread drone activity and air alerts across Ukraine underscore the persistent aerial threat. Reports of strikes on both civilian and military targets demonstrate the continued intensity of the conflict.

Situation Report