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Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 15:45 UTC

Key Developments and Changes (Since 15:38 UTC)

The most significant new developments are the confirmation of a Russian bridgehead across the Oskil River, south of Topoli, and further details emerging about the recent prisoner exchange and a potential shift in Russian capabilities or military strategy.

Kharkiv Region

New Bridgehead Confirmed: Russian forces have established a bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskil River, south of Topoli. This confirms earlier reports and represents a strategically significant gain for Russia, potentially opening a new axis of advance.
Failed Ukrainian Crossing Attempt: An initial Ukrainian attempt to cross the river at this location failed, but the second was successful, per Russian accounts.

Prisoner Exchange

Detailed Breakdown: The Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War provided specific details about the 150 Ukrainian servicemen returned:
- 108 soldiers from the Armed Forces of Ukraine (including 7 from Territorial Defense Forces, 26 from the Navy, and 3 from the Air Force).
- 22 National Guard soldiers.
- 19 border guards.
- 1 National Police officer.
- Personnel included those who defended Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Sumy, and Kyiv regions.
- Specifically mentioned were National Guard personnel who guarded the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, defenders of Mariupol and Azovstal, and personnel involved in the Kursk operation.
- Ranks included 47 sergeants, 69 soldiers, 16 sailors, and 18 officers.
Humanitarian Note: Many of the released POWs are reported to be in poor health, with some having been held for over 2.5 years.
Local impact: 18 of the released POW are residents of Dnipropetrovsk.

Military and Political Developments

Reduction in Russian Offensives: Ukrainian media reports a potential shift in Russian tactics or capabilities, with a reported reduction in offensive actions. This requires careful monitoring, as it could indicate resource constraints, a change in strategy, or a temporary pause.
Nuclear Deterrent: Documents show that Belarus and Russia have agreed that an attack with normal weapons that threatens either state's sovereignty can be replied to using nuclear weapons.
Possible Propaganda: A possible Russian propaganda piece was released, highlighting the "torture and killing" of a recently mobilized soldier in a Ukrainian TCC.
Argentinian Actions: Argentina decides to leave the WHO, after the US.
Azerbaijan: The nation of Azerbaijan will donate electrical equipment to Ukraine.

Updated Situation

The successful establishment of a Russian bridgehead across the Oskil River is the single most important tactical development. This creates a new potential line of advance for Russian forces and complicates Ukrainian defensive planning.

The detailed breakdown of the returned Ukrainian POWs highlights the human cost of the conflict and the diverse range of units and locations involved. It also reinforces the importance of ongoing prisoner exchange negotiations.

The reported reduction in Russian offensive actions, coupled with claims of significant Ukrainian losses in January, needs careful evaluation. It could indicate a genuine shift in Russian capabilities, a change in tactics, or a temporary pause for regrouping and resupply. The claim of an "operational pause" by Russian military sources warrants skepticism but should be considered.

The formalization of the Russia-Belarus security agreement, with its explicit mention of potential nuclear weapon use, is a major strategic development. This elevates the risk of a wider conflict and changes the deterrence calculus. It also confirms Belarus's firm alignment with Russia.