Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 15:08 UTC
Key Developments
The most significant updates revolve around the confirmed prisoner exchange, ongoing drone warfare, continued fighting in the Donetsk and Kursk regions, and potential shifts in US policy towards Ukraine and the Middle East.
Prisoner Exchange
- Confirmed 150-for-150 Exchange: A substantial prisoner exchange between Ukraine and Russia has been confirmed, with 150 Ukrainian servicemen returned. This included personnel from various branches (Navy, Air Force, Airborne, Ground Forces, National Guard, Border Guards, Territorial Defense, and police). Some had been held captive for over two years. The UAE reportedly facilitated the exchange. Returned Russian military personnel are currently in Belarus.
- Ukrainian POW details: Returned Ukrainian POWs include those captured in Mariupol and the Zaporizhzhia region, as well as those who guarded the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, and those who took part in operations in the Kursk region.
Drone Warfare
- Kamianets-Podilskyi TCC Explosion: A confirmed explosion at the Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support (TCC) in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, resulted in one death (believed to be the perpetrator) and eight injured. Ukrainian authorities attribute this to Russian special services, aiming to discredit the TCC and disrupt mobilization. The perpetrator was identified as the person delivering items to a TCC serviceman.
- Extensive Drone Deployments: Ukrainian forces report deploying 350 FPV drones. Drone operators report destroying 4,387 enemy targets in one month.
- Continued Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue across numerous regions.
- Kharkiv Region: A 61-year-old man died in the hospital due to a Russian attack on Izium.
- Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv Regions: Under threat of attack drones.
- Sumy: Under threat of guided bombs.
- Krasnodar Krai, Russia: Confirmed drone attack on the "Albashnafta" oil depot.
- Zaporizhzhia: A Russian drone strike damaged an unfinished high-rise building.
- Russian Drone Tactics: Russian forces are using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions.
Donetsk Region
- Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces claiming advances.
- Dachne: Russian forces are reportedly developing success.
- Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: Residents are preparing basements, indicating anticipation of hostilities.
- Kurakhove: Russian artillery is targeting Ukrainian forces.
- Sribne: Russian forces are reportedly completing a clear-out operation.
- Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control.
- Other Locations: Fighting continues near Krasnoarmiisk, Malinovka, Yelizavetivka, Vodyane Druhe and Zelene Pole. Russian forces reportedly captured several settlements in January, totaling 163.96 km².
Kursk Region
- The Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory.
- Russian forces are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove and surrounding areas.
- A Ukrainian assault force was reportedly destroyed near Tetkino.
- Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties and their withdrawal.
- New: An "Iskander-M" strike reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot and over 50 units of armored and automotive equipment in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast.
Kharkiv Region
- Lyptsi Direction: Reports suggest a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- Kalynove: Russian forces have reportedly occupied Kalynove.
- Syrskyi's Reserves: General Syrskyi is reportedly transferring reserves to the Kharkiv direction.
Luhansk Region
- Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks.
Zaporizhzhia Region
- Air raid alerts.
- An explosion was reported.
Military and Political Developments
- US Leadership Change at USAID: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been appointed as the acting head of USAID, potentially indicating a shift in US aid policy. Argentina's president has ordered the country to leave the World Health Organization, following the US.
- Trump Administration: The Trump administration reportedly split on Ukraine strategy. Trump has appointed a special representative for Russia and Ukraine.
- Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region.
- Ukrainian Air Force Reports: Reports of drone and missile threats.
- Next Rammstein meeting: Scheduled for February 12th, chaired by the UK.
- New: Ukrainian media reports a significant reduction in Russian offensive actions.
- New: A treaty with Belarus on security guarantees within the framework of the Union State was submitted to the State Duma for ratification.
Other Regions
- Kherson: Four people were injured in shelling, and three police officers were injured in a drone attack.
- Poltava Region: Reports of fires at gas facilities.
- Lyubertsy, Moscow Region: A fire at a minibus depot resulted in the destruction of 30 vehicles.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains very active. The confirmed prisoner exchange is a significant development, potentially indicating a channel for negotiation. The continued intense drone warfare, including the attack on the TCC, suggests a strategy of disruption and destabilization.
Russian forces maintain pressure in the Donetsk region. The situation in the Kursk region is contested, with conflicting reports of gains and losses. The reported reduction in Russian offensive actions, if accurate, could indicate a tactical shift or resource limitations. The reported "Iskander-M" strike in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation.
Geopolitically, the shifts within the Trump administration and US policy towards Ukraine and the Middle East introduce significant uncertainty. The appointment of Marco Rubio to USAID and the potential US withdrawal from Syria could significantly alter the dynamics of international support for Ukraine.
