Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 14:38 UTC

Key Developments

Prisoner Exchange

A significant prisoner exchange occurred, with 150 Ukrainian servicemen returned. The exchange was conducted on a 150-for-150 basis with Russia. This included soldiers, sergeants, and officers from various branches, including the Navy, Air Force, Airborne Forces, Ground Forces, National Guard, Border Guards, Territorial Defense, and police. Some had been held captive for over two years. The UAE reportedly played a facilitating role. Posts about the exchange were initially removed from official Ukrainian channels but were later republished by Zelensky. Russian military personnel returned as part of the exchange are currently in Belarus.

Drone Warfare

Kamianets-Podilskyi TCC Explosion: A confirmed explosion at the TCC (Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support) in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast, resulted in one death (believed to be the perpetrator) and eight injured servicemen. Ukrainian authorities are investigating it as a terrorist act organized by Russian special services. This incident aligns with a previous one in Rivne, suggesting a pattern of Russian-backed attacks on recruitment centers.
Extensive Drone Deployments: Ukrainian forces report deploying 350 FPV drones to various units, with drone operators reporting the destruction of 4,387 enemy targets in one month. Sternenko's reports detail the distribution of FPV drones to various Ukrainian units.
Continued Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue across numerous regions.
- Kharkiv Region: A 61-year-old man died in the hospital due to a Russian attack on Izium.
- Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv Regions: All under threat of attack drones.
- Krasnodar Krai, Russia: Confirmed drone attack on the "Albashnafta" oil depot.
Russian Drone Tactics: Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction.
Drone Warfare in other regions: Enemy tactical aviation activity is reported in the eastern direction. Russia claims to have created a ground control station for drone swarms. Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region, and the Ukrainian Navy reported that naval personnel "landed" a Russian "Shahed" drone overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed. The Ukrainian "Achilles" drone unit claims to have destroyed or damaged 1,942 enemy targets in January 2025. Russian forces are reportedly destroying Ukrainian drones on the Kherson direction. A mobile fire group of the "Steel Border" brigade reportedly shot down a Shahed drone in the Sumy direction. A Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone reportedly destroyed a Russian Ural truck in the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. Video shows the work of drone operators from the 69th Separate Covering Brigade of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group in the Kursk region. Video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle with a "Lancet" loitering munition in the Kursk region. A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region. Russian troops are using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. A Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. An FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area. Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
New Drone Technology: Turkish manufacturer Baykar has opened an enterprise in Morocco for servicing Bayraktar TB2 drones.

Donetsk Region

Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces claiming advances in the western outskirts and near the refractory plant.
Dachne: Russian forces are reportedly developing success in Dachnoe, with video evidence showing the destruction of Ukrainian positions. Russian forces reportedly occupied the settlement.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: Residents are preparing basements, indicating anticipation of hostilities.
Kurakhove: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces, including fuel and ammunition depots, personnel, and a command post.
Sribne: Russian forces are reportedly completing a clear-out operation.
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control, with Russian forces advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Baranivka: Liberated by Russian Forces, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Other locations: The right flank of the Russian forces near Krasnoarmiisk continues to advance, with ongoing fighting near Malinovka and Yelizavetivka. Russian units have reportedly entered the central part of Vodyane Druhe. Attempts to take Zelene Pole are ongoing. Russian forces have reportedly captured several settlements in January, totaling 163.96 km². On the Konstantinopol direction, Russian forces are advancing north of the Sukhi Yaly River.

Kursk Region

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory.
Russian forces are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove and surrounding areas.
A Ukrainian assault force was reportedly destroyed near Tetkino.
Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties and their withdrawal from the region.
Losses: Since the beginning of hostilities, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses: over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment. Over 100 paratroopers have reportedly been deployed to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
New: An "Iskander-M" strike reportedly destroyed a Ukrainian ammunition depot and over 50 units of armored and automotive equipment in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast.

Kharkiv Region

Lyptsi Direction: Reports suggest a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive or reinforcement of positions.
Kalynove: Russian forces have reportedly occupied Kalynove and are approaching Kindrashivka.
Syrskyi's Reserves: General Syrskyi is reportedly transferring reserves to the Kharkiv direction.

Luhansk Region

Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks.

Zaporizhzhia Region

Air raid alerts were declared and lifted multiple times.
An explosion was reported in Zaporizhzhia.

Military and Political Developments

US Leadership Change at USAID: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been appointed as the acting head of USAID, potentially indicating a shift in US aid policy.
Geopolitical Developments:
- Trump claims progress in Ukraine negotiations, but Russia has not confirmed.
- Trump administration reportedly split on Ukraine strategy.
Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian losses in an attempted incursion into the Kursk region.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force continues reporting on drone and missile threats across various regions.
Next Rammstein meeting: Scheduled for February 12th, chaired by the UK instead of the US.
New: Ukrainian media reports a significant reduction in Russian offensive actions over the past seven days.

Other Regions

Kherson: Four people were injured in shelling, and three police officers were injured in a drone attack.
Poltava Region: Reports of fires at gas facilities following a nighttime missile strike.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. The prisoner exchange, now re-confirmed, is a notable development. The ongoing drone warfare, particularly the attack on the oil depot in Krasnodar Krai and the explosion near the TCC in Kamianets-Podilskyi, highlights the conflict's expanding scope. The alleged involvement of Russian special services in the TCC explosion suggests a strategy to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization.

Russian forces continue their offensive in the Donetsk region, particularly around Chasiv Yar, Dachne, and Pokrovsk. The situation in the Kursk region is contested, with conflicting reports of Russian successes and Ukrainian counteroffensives. The reported "Iskander-M" strike in Stetskovka, Sumy Oblast, if confirmed, represents a significant escalation.

Geopolitically, the divisions within the Trump administration regarding Ukraine strategy and the appointment of Marco Rubio as acting head of USAID add layers of uncertainty. The reported reduction in Russian offensive actions, as claimed by Ukrainian media, could signal a shift in tactics or a temporary regrouping. The ongoing drone activity and reports of missile strikes demonstrate the conflict's complexity and fluidity, with significant implications for military operations and civilian populations. The next meeting in the "Rammstein" format, to be headed by Great Britain, will be an important event to watch.

Situation Report