Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 14:08 UTC

Key Developments

Prisoner Exchange

A significant prisoner exchange occurred, with 150 Ukrainian servicemen returned. The exchange was reportedly conducted on a 150-for-150 basis with Russia. This included soldiers, sergeants, and officers from various branches, including the Navy, Air Force, Airborne Forces, Ground Forces, National Guard, Border Guards, Territorial Defense, and police. Some had been held captive for over two years. The UAE reportedly played a facilitating role. However, later reports indicate that posts about the exchange were removed from official Ukrainian channels, suggesting potential complications or a need for clarification. Later reports confirm the removal of the posts, but also a re-publication of the message by Zelensky.

Drone Warfare

Kamianets-Podilskyi TCC Explosion: Confirmed explosion at the TCC (Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support) in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One person (believed to be the perpetrator) died, and four were injured. Ukrainian authorities are investigating it as a terrorist act organized by Russian special services, involving a remotely detonated recruited agent. Eight servicemen were injured. Video evidence of the aftermath shows a covered body. This aligns with a previous incident in Rivne, suggesting a pattern of Russian-backed attacks on recruitment centers.
Extensive Drone Deployments: Ukrainian forces report deploying 350 FPV drones to various units. Ukrainian drone operators report the destruction of 4,387 enemy targets in one month, indicating the intensity and scale of drone warfare. Sternenko's reports provide detailed information about the distribution of FPV drones to various Ukrainian units.
Continued Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue to be reported in numerous regions. Reports indicate three people were injured in Kherson due to Russian drone attacks on February 4th and 5th.
- Kharkiv Region: See details in previous reports. A 61-year-old man died in the hospital due to a Russian attack on Izium.
- Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv Regions: All under threat of attack drones with various reports on their movements and trajectories.
- Krasnodar Krai, Russia: Confirmed drone attack on the "Albashnafta" oil depot.
Russian Drone Tactics: Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction, indicating intense and targeted attacks.
Drone Warfare in other regions: The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of enemy tactical aviation in the eastern direction, with a threat of using aviation weapons for frontline areas. A ground control station for swarms of drones has been created in Russia, designed to work with an unlimited number of drones using a single device. The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region. The Ukrainian Navy reported that naval personnel "landed" a Russian "Shahed" drone overnight. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed. The Ukrainian "Achilles" drone unit claims to have destroyed or damaged 1,942 enemy targets in January 2025. Russian forces are reportedly destroying Ukrainian drones on the Kherson direction. A mobile fire group of the "Steel Border" brigade reportedly shot down a Shahed drone in the Sumy direction. A Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone reportedly destroyed a Russian Ural truck in the Zaporizhzhia region. Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region. Another "Baba Yaga" drone was eliminated. Video shows the work of drone operators from the 69th Separate Covering Brigade of the 35th Army of the "Vostok" group in the Kursk region. Video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian "Kozak" armored vehicle with a "Lancet" loitering munition in the Kursk region. A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region. Russian troops are using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. A Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. An FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber. Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area. Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
New Drone Technology: Turkish manufacturer Baykar has opened an enterprise in Morocco for servicing Bayraktar TB2 drones. This expands Baykar's presence in Africa, where its drones are used by several countries, including Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Morocco.

Donetsk Region

Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces claiming advances in the western outskirts and near the refractory plant.
Dachne: Russian forces are reportedly developing success in Dachnoe, with video evidence showing the destruction of Ukrainian positions and the killing of several soldiers in a school on the western outskirts. Russian forces reportedly occupied the settlement.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: Residents are preparing basements, indicating anticipation of hostilities.
Kurakhove: Russian artillerymen from the 381st self-propelled artillery regiment are targeting Ukrainian forces, including fuel and ammunition depots, personnel, and a command post.
Sribne: Russian forces are reportedly completing a clear-out operation.
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control, with Russian forces advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Baranivka: Liberated by Russian Forces, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Other locations: The right flank of the Russian forces near Krasnoarmiisk continues to advance, with ongoing fighting near Malinovka and Yelizavetivka. Russian units have reportedly entered the central part of Vodyane Druhe after taking control of strongholds to the south. Attempts to take Zelene Pole are ongoing. Russian forces have reportedly captured Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Zelene, Kotlyne, Solone, Novovasylivka, Nadiivka, Yasenove, Novoandriivka, and Petropavlivka in January, totaling 163.96 km². On the Konstantinopol direction, Russian forces are advancing north of the Sukhi Yaly River along a front up to 1.15 km wide.

Kursk Region

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory, claiming significant Ukrainian losses.
Russian forces are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove and surrounding areas.
A Ukrainian assault force was reportedly destroyed near Tetkino.
Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties and their withdrawal from the region.
Losses: Since the beginning of hostilities, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses: over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment. Over 100 paratroopers have reportedly been deployed to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.

Kharkiv Region

Lyptsi Direction: Reports suggest a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive or reinforcement of positions, with the transfer of personnel and equipment.
Kalynove: Russian forces have reportedly occupied Kalynove and are approaching Kindrashivka.
Syrskyi's Reserves: General Syrskyi is reportedly transferring reserves to the Kharkiv direction.

Luhansk Region

Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks.

Zaporizhzhia Region

Air raid alerts were declared and lifted multiple times.

Military and Political Developments

US Leadership Change at USAID: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been appointed as the acting head of USAID. This is a significant development. It suggests a potential shift in the US approach to humanitarian and development aid, which could have implications for Ukraine. Given Rubio's political stance, this change might lead to a more conditional or strategically aligned approach to aid, possibly with greater scrutiny or different priorities.
Geopolitical Developments:
- Trump claims progress in Ukraine negotiations, but Russia has not confirmed.
- Trump administration reportedly split on Ukraine strategy, with some advocating for increased pressure on Russia and others for reduced aid to Ukraine.
Prisoner Exchange: Reports, including from Zelensky's official channels, indicate a prisoner exchange of 150 for 150. However, these reports were later removed.
Explosion near Kamianets-Podilskyi TCC: Reports of an explosion with casualties, similar to a previous incident in Rivne, allegedly orchestrated by Russian special services. The SBU is investigating it as a terrorist attack, with the perpetrator among the dead.
Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian losses in an attempted incursion into the Kursk region.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force continues reporting on drone and missile threats across various regions.
Next Rammstein meeting: Scheduled for February 12th, chaired by the UK instead of the US.

Other Regions

Kherson: Four people were injured in shelling, and three police officers were injured in a drone attack.
Poltava Region: Reports of fires at gas facilities following a nighttime missile strike.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and significant developments across multiple fronts. The prisoner exchange, although initially confirmed, is now uncertain due to the removal of official announcements, then re-publication. The ongoing drone warfare, particularly the confirmed attack on the oil depot in Krasnodar Krai and the explosion near the TCC in Kamianets-Podilskyi, highlights the expanding scope and intensity of the conflict. The alleged involvement of Russian special services in the TCC explosion suggests a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization efforts.

Russian forces continue to press their offensive in the Donetsk region, particularly around Chasiv Yar, Dachne, and Pokrovsk. In the Kursk region, the situation remains contested, with conflicting reports of Russian successes and Ukrainian counteroffensives.

Geopolitically, the reported internal divisions within the Trump administration regarding Ukraine strategy add another layer of uncertainty. The appointment of Marco Rubio as acting head of USAID could signal a shift in US aid policy. The ongoing drone activity and reports of missile strikes, combined with the confirmed prisoner exchange (if verified), demonstrate the complexity and fluidity of the conflict, with significant implications for both military operations and civilian populations. The next meeting in the "Rammstein" format will be headed by Great Britain, not the USA.

Situation Report