Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 13:38 UTC
Key Developments
Prisoner Exchange: A significant prisoner exchange has occurred, with 150 Ukrainian servicemen returned. The exchange was reportedly conducted on a 150-for-150 basis with Russia. This included soldiers, sergeants, and officers from various branches, including the Navy, Air Force, Airborne Forces, Ground Forces, National Guard, Border Guards, Territorial Defense, and police. Some had been held captive for over two years. The UAE reportedly played a facilitating role. However, later reports indicate that posts about the exchange were removed from official Ukrainian channels, suggesting potential complications or a need for clarification.
Drone Warfare:
- Kamianets-Podilskyi TCC Explosion: Confirmed explosion at the TCC (Territorial Center for Recruitment and Social Support) in Kamianets-Podilskyi, Khmelnytskyi Oblast. One person (believed to be the perpetrator) died, and four were injured. Ukrainian authorities are investigating it as a terrorist act organized by Russian special services, involving a remotely detonated recruited agent. Eight servicemen were injured. Video evidence of the aftermath shows a covered body. This aligns with a previous incident in Rivne, suggesting a pattern of Russian-backed attacks on recruitment centers.
- Extensive Drone Deployments: Ukrainian forces report deploying 350 FPV drones to various units. Ukrainian drone operators report the destruction of 4,387 enemy targets in one month, indicating the intensity and scale of drone warfare. Sternenko's reports provide detailed information about the distribution of FPV drones to various Ukrainian units.
- Continued Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue to be reported in numerous regions. Reports indicate three people were injured in Kherson due to Russian drone attacks on February 4th and 5th.
- Kharkiv Region: See details in previous reports. A 61-year-old man died in the hospital due to a Russian attack on Izium.
- Sumy, Chernihiv, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kyiv Regions: All under threat of attack drones with various reports on their movements and trajectories.
- Krasnodar Krai, Russia: Confirmed drone attack on the "Albashnafta" oil depot.
- Russian Drone Tactics: Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya" and "VT-40" FPV drones against Ukrainian positions in the Kupiansk direction, indicating intense and targeted attacks.
Donetsk Region:
- Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues, with Russian forces claiming advances in the western outskirts and near the refractory plant.
- Dachne: Russian forces are reportedly developing success in Dachnoe, with video evidence showing the destruction of Ukrainian positions and the killing of several soldiers in a school on the western outskirts.
- Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: Residents are preparing basements, indicating anticipation of hostilities.
- Kurakhove: Russian artillerymen from the 381st self-propelled artillery regiment are targeting Ukrainian forces, including fuel and ammunition depots, personnel, and a command post.
- Sribne: Russian forces are reportedly completing a clear-out operation.
- Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control, with Russian forces advancing toward Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
- Baranivka: Liberated by Russian Forces, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Kursk Region:
- The Russian Ministry of Defense reports repelling a Ukrainian attempt to invade Russian territory, claiming significant Ukrainian losses.
- Russian forces are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove and surrounding areas.
- A Ukrainian assault force was reportedly destroyed near Tetkino.
- Reports indicate significant North Korean casualties and their withdrawal from the region.
Kharkiv Region:
- Lyptsi Direction: Reports suggest a possible Ukrainian counteroffensive or reinforcement of positions, with the transfer of personnel and equipment.
- Kalynove: Russian forces have reportedly occupied Kalynove and are approaching Kindrashivka.
- Syrskyi's Reserves: General Syrskyi is reportedly transferring reserves to the Kharkiv direction.
Luhansk Region:
- Kupiansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks.
Zaporizhzhia Region:
- Air raid alerts were declared and lifted multiple times.
Military and Political Developments
- US Leadership Change at USAID: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been appointed as the acting head of USAID.
- Geopolitical Developments:
- Trump claims progress in Ukraine negotiations, but Russia has not confirmed.
- Trump administration reportedly split on Ukraine strategy, with some advocating for increased pressure on Russia and others for reduced aid to Ukraine.
- Prisoner Exchange: Reports, including from Zelensky's official channels, indicate a prisoner exchange of 150 for 150. However, these reports were later removed.
- Explosion near Kamianets-Podilskyi TCC: Reports of an explosion with casualties, similar to a previous incident in Rivne, allegedly orchestrated by Russian special services. The SBU is investigating it as a terrorist attack, with the perpetrator among the dead.
- Russian Military Reports: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims significant Ukrainian losses in an attempted incursion into the Kursk region.
- Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force continues reporting on drone and missile threats across various regions.
Other Regions
- Kherson: Four people were injured in shelling, and three police officers were injured in a drone attack.
- Poltava Region: Reports of fires at gas facilities following a nighttime missile strike.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting and significant developments across multiple fronts. The prisoner exchange, although initially confirmed, is now uncertain due to the removal of official announcements. The ongoing drone warfare, particularly the confirmed attack on the oil depot in Krasnodar Krai and the explosion near the TCC in Kamianets-Podilskyi, highlights the expanding scope and intensity of the conflict. The alleged involvement of Russian special services in the TCC explosion suggests a deliberate strategy to disrupt Ukrainian mobilization efforts.
Russian forces continue to press their offensive in the Donetsk region, particularly around Chasiv Yar, Dachne, and Pokrovsk. In the Kursk region, the situation remains contested, with conflicting reports of Russian successes and Ukrainian counteroffensives.
Geopolitically, the reported internal divisions within the Trump administration regarding Ukraine strategy add another layer of uncertainty. The appointment of Marco Rubio as acting head of USAID could signal a shift in US aid policy. The ongoing drone activity and reports of missile strikes, combined with the confirmed prisoner exchange (if verified), demonstrate the complexity and fluidity of the conflict, with significant implications for both military operations and civilian populations.
