Sitrep 2025-02-05 06:10:42

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 06:08 UTC

Drone Warfare

Confirmed Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia: A drone attack targeted the "Albashnafta" oil depot in Novominskaya, Kanevsky district, causing a fire in a reservoir. The fire, assigned a second rank of complexity, was localized and subsequently extinguished, with no reported casualties. 55 personnel and 19 units were involved in firefighting. The plant's capacity allows for processing up to 320,000 tons of hydrocarbon raw materials annually. The Russian Ministry of Defense did not report any downed drones over the Krasnodar Krai in its morning summary. There is speculation about how a video from a nearby surveillance camera was leaked to Ukrainian channels and whether it was an intentional act.
Overnight Drone Attacks: Four Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight, two in the Kursk region and two in the Belgorod region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
Drone Attacks in Bryansk Region: A Ukrainian drone attacked the village of Lomakovka in the Starodubsky municipal district, resulting in minor shrapnel wounds to two residents. Drone attacks were also reported in the village of Novy Ropsk, Klimovsky district, injuring a civilian, and in the village of Khinel, Sevsky district.
Drone Attacks in Belgorod Region: The villages of Mokraya Orlovka and Rozhdestvenka in the Grayvoronsky district, Dvurechnoye and Urazovo in the Valuysky district, Berezovka in the Borisovsky district, Grafovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, and Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka, and Balki in the Shebekinsky district came under drone attacks.
Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Russian forces attacked Kharkiv overnight. An administrative building in the Saltovsky district was hit, causing a fire. A nearby apartment building had its windows blown out, and a gas station was damaged. Another hit was reported in the Osnovyansky district, also causing a fire. One person suffered an acute stress reaction. The roof of a non-residential building, an architectural monument, was damaged and caught fire. The roof of another non-residential building was also partially destroyed and caught fire, and the windows of seven buildings of an educational institution were damaged.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports on Drone Threats: The Ukrainian Air Force reported on several drone threats across multiple regions overnight, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Poltava, Starokonstantinov, Bereznegovatoye, Pavlograd, Balakleya, Zlatopol, Zhytomyr, Fastov, Boyarka, Mirgorod, Priluki, Nezhin, Vylkove, Izmail, and Odesa. The threats were later called off.
Specific Drone Movements: Detailed reports of drone movements were provided, including specific locations and directions of travel, highlighting the complexity of tracking and intercepting drone attacks.
Finnish Drone: Finnish military to test Insta's "Steel Eagle" drone in combat, designed to destroy enemy manpower with a tungsten ball charge. Ukrainian forces have used similar drones before. Concerns raised about potential use against civilians.
Cherkasy Region: Ukrainian air defenses shot down five Russian drones overnight in the Cherkasy region, with no casualties or damage to infrastructure reported.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: See details in the Drone Warfare section above.
Military Actions: On the Lyptsi direction, the enemy is reportedly increasing its grouping for a potential counteroffensive. Personnel (possibly from the 92nd Assault Brigade), armored vehicles, and air defense systems with a new tactical sign ("arrow in a square") have been transferred from Chuhuiv.
Ukrainian Counterattack near Lyptsi: Ukrainian forces are unsuccessfully attempting to counterattack near Lyptsi, according to the head of the VGA region, Vitaly Ganchev.
Advance near Urazovo: Russian forces have advanced near Urazovo, occupying a new section of territory near Topoli, between Urazovo in the Valuysky district of Belgorod and Dvurechnoye in the Kupyansk direction of Kharkiv. The advance is reported to be up to 1 km deep and up to 3 km wide.
North of Kupiansk: On the right bank of the Oskil River, Russian forces are expanding their foothold near Zapadnoe.
Ukrainian Positions Restored near Nadiivka: Ukrainian forces have reportedly restored positions near Nadiivka.
Enemy Advances near Zapadne, Kindrashivka, and Topoliv: Enemy forces are reported to have advanced near these locations, according to DeepState. ISW also reports enemy advances near Kupyansk.
Russian Advance near Dvorichna: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
Russian Advance near Dvorichna: Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
Vovchansk: Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
Explosions in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire was reported at an energy facility in Kharkiv following a drone attack.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force reported launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of the region.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. A high-speed target was reported in the region. They also report a high-speed target moving from Sumy Oblast towards Poltava Oblast.
Transport of Ukrainian Forces: Transport of Ukrainian forces is under attack by drones near Vovchansk.
Ukrainian Forces Repel Attacks: Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks near Hatyshche.
Image Analysis: The image captures a Ukrainian soldier in a contested area, likely on the frontlines, indicated by a damaged road sign marked with a red line and damaged vehicles nearby. The scene suggests recent or ongoing fighting in the region, with strategic importance attached to the location for control and logistics.
Ukrainian Air Force Reports: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Kharkiv Oblast.
Guided Aerial Missiles: Three guided aerial missiles are reported to be targeting Chuhuiv/Balakliia. Four missiles were launched, with two targeting Chuhuiv and two targeting Balakliia. These missiles have reportedly moved on towards Zlatopil in Kharkiv Oblast.

Donetsk Region

Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues on the western outskirts of the city. Enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops. Russian forces have taken control of the territory of the first workshop of the refractory plant and are advancing towards the "Shevchenko" area.
Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk): Fighting is taking place on the northern outskirts of the city near the "Fomikha" mine's spoil tip and near the "Toretska" mine.
Konstantinopil Direction: Russian forces are developing success in Dachnoe.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: The advance of Russian troops towards the Dnipropetrovsk region has led some residents to prepare basements for living during anticipated hostilities. They are stocking up on canned goods and other long-life provisions. Earlier, Ukrainian authorities announced an evacuation in some frontline settlements of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Civilian Casualties in Horlivka: Ten civilians were wounded by Ukrainian shelling in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy used artillery against the "Komsomolets" market and drones against city buses, garbage trucks, and cars.
Ivano-Daryivka: Russian assault units entered the settlement and engaged Ukrainian forces.
Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Fierce fighting is reported on the Zverevo-Chushkilino-Lysovka line, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold defensive positions, especially on the approaches to Krasnoarmiisk. Russian forces have taken fire control of a section leading to the Selidovo-Krasnoarmiisk highway, which supplies the Ukrainian garrison in the area. Positional fighting is reported in Lysovka, with Ukrainian forces attempting to attack.
Myrnohrad and Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and advancing towards Pokrovsk, blocking Ukrainian supply lines.
Kramatorsk Direction: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, injuring 13 people, including two children. One person was killed in Ivanopil, and another was wounded in Chasiv Yar. Ukrainian forces repelled two Russian attacks in this direction.
Kurakhove: Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka. West of Kurakhove, Russian troops are advancing in the Dachne and Andriivka areas, with half of the Dachne settlement cleared.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations continue near Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in troops landing in the central part of the settlement. They reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers, indicating a new development in mine warfare.
Sukhi Yaly River: Russian artillerymen are targeting Ukrainian forces. Army aviation destroyed a bridge across the Sukhi Yaly River near Konstantinopol.
Dzerzhynsk Direction: Russian forces continue to increase their firepower near Dzerzhynsk and are expanding their control towards Shcherbynivka.
Novopavlivsk Direction: One Russian attack was reported in the direction of Kostyantynopil.
Huliaipole Direction: Russian aviation targeted Novopil.
Orikhiv Direction: One combat engagement is reported near Kamyanske.
Dachne: Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian positions near Dachne with a precise strike, reportedly killing several Ukrainian soldiers.
Sribne: Russian forces report they have taken the settlement and are completing a clear-out operation. Ukrainian forces confirm that heavy fighting continues in the area.
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. Russian forces are advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
South Donetsk Direction: Russian assault units are advancing north and west of Velyka Novosilka, capturing a 2km deep and 1.5km wide area.

Kursk Region

Russian forces of the "North" troop grouping are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove, as well as in the forest belts of the Sudzhansky district and on the approaches to Malaya Loknya.
A Ukrainian assault force was destroyed during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties. South Korea's intelligence confirms the withdrawal of North Korean troops from the Kursk region due to heavy losses. Approximately 300 North Korean soldiers were reportedly killed and 2,700 wounded out of an estimated 11,000 deployed. Ukrainian military reports indicate that North Korean troops have not been participating in combat operations in Kursk since mid-January. The National Intelligence Service of South Korea has also confirmed this.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Russian forces are advancing, with battles near Sverdlykove and nearby forested areas.
Reports indicate that contractors have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
The landing attempt of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on two armored personnel carriers was thwarted in Makhnovka.
Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky.
Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian Defence Minister Andrei Belousov inspected the Yug Group of Forces.
Russian forces are continuing to advance in the region of Sverdlikovo and north of Guevo.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces claim to have destroyed a command post of the "Kursk" troop grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in Rylsk, Kursk region.
Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops.
Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
Video shows the work of drone operators from the 83rd Guards Air Assault Brigade in the Kursk region, with reports of the capture and clearing of two strongholds south of Nikolaevo-Daryino.
Video shows a Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
Russian troops are using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
A Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
An FPV drone successfully destroyed a Ukrainian T-72M1 tank in the Kursk border area.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
The death of the Deputy Governor of Primorsky Krai, Sergei Efremov, in the Kursk region has been confirmed.
Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk direction. Five engagements are ongoing.
The use of FPV drones by Ukrainian forces has significantly increased along the logistical routes of Russian troops in the Makhnovka direction.
Russian forces report that the enemy grouping in the Kursk direction has been completely defeated. The remnants of the enemy's forces have been pushed back across the border. The enemy has reportedly lost 1,653 troops, 3 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and 2 MLRS.
An MMA fighter is training paratroopers in the Kursk direction.
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Ukraine is closer to peace than ever before and claimed that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian command post in the Kursk region, killing dozens of Russian officers and some North Korean soldiers.

Luhansk Region

Siversk Direction: Fighting is ongoing in Verkhnekamenskoye and to the northeast of the village.
Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, moving towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
Hrekivka Direction: Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with a 400m advance.
Kupiansk: Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
Bohuslavka: Battles have been initiated.
Novoyehorivka: An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Kupyansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Lozova.
Lyman Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled eight Russian attacks near Novoiehorivka, Novoliubivka, Makiivka, Yampolivka, and Serebrianka.

Zaporizhzhia Region

An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted, then declared again and canceled.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the region 401 times overnight.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv.
Two people пострадали in result of Russian shelling of Zaporizhzhia and Zaporizhzhia region.
One combat engagement near Kamyanske.
Pokrovsk Direction: A 62-year-old woman was wounded as a result of a Russian attack.

Other Regions

Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: The aggressor attacked Nikopolshchyna almost until midnight, using artillery and kamikaze drones. The attacks were directed at the district center, Pokrovska, and Chervonogrigorivska communities. No one was injured. Defenders of the sky destroyed an enemy drone in the region yesterday evening.
Kryvyi Rih: The situation is under control. No shelling was recorded in the Kryvyi Rih district. In the Nikopol district, the enemy attacked Nikopol, Pokrovska, and Chervonogrigorivska communities with heavy artillery and kamikaze drones. No casualties were reported. Air defense was operating in the region in the evening, and one enemy drone was shot down.
Kherson: One person was killed and eight were injured in Russian shelling of the Kherson region. Social infrastructure, farm buildings, and residential areas were damaged, including 10 houses.
Kherson: Four people were injured in a Russian drone attack on Kherson in the morning.
Rivne Region: SBU detains two terrorists in Rivne region. A complex of appropriate investigative and counter-terrorist actions is currently underway.

Military and Political Developments

Ukrainian Air Force Activity: Reports of enemy tactical aviation activity on the eastern front. There is a threat of the use of aerial weapons. Launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast are reported.
Geopolitical Developments:
- The US is exiting the UN Human Rights Council and ceasing funding for certain UN structures.
Casualty Reports:
- The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 1,140 Russian casualties in the past day, along with the destruction of 9 tanks, 12 armored fighting vehicles, and 52 artillery systems.
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost over 240 troops and two ammunition depots in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours. Overall losses are reported to exceed 56,000.
US and Gaza: US President Donald Trump stated that the US is ready to take control of the Gaza Strip and turn it into a "Middle Eastern Riviera."

Other

Latvia Begins Production of Patria 6x6 APCs for Ukraine: The Ukrainian Embassy in Latvia announced that Latvia has begun producing the first batch of Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers (APCs) for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The vehicles are being produced at the "Defence Partnership Latvia" plant in Valmiera, with components manufactured in several Latvian cities. The plant is expected to produce 160 units per year. The Patria 6x6 is a modular vehicle with a Scania diesel engine, automatic transmission, and a capacity for 10 soldiers. It has a range of over 700 km and a top speed of 100 km/h. The armor meets STANAG 4569 standards.
Digital Ruble: The Russian State Duma considers the digital ruble a convenient tool for long-term savings, citing its traceability as a deterrent to fraud.
Fake QR Codes in Moscow: 150 fake QR codes for apartment building chats were used to hack "Gosuslugi" accounts in Moscow in January.
Space Launch: A Soyuz-2.1v rocket carrying spacecraft for the Russian Ministry of Defense was launched from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome.
EU: Macron and Scholz express readiness to respond to Trump's tariffs with similar measures if US President Donald Trump imposes them on European goods.
EU: European Commission warns of decisive retaliatory action if Trump imposes new tariffs on the EU.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. Russian forces continue to make incremental advances, particularly near Urazovo, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and in the Konstantinopil direction. The advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk region from Pokrovsk is causing significant concern among residents.

Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with a confirmed attack on an oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, and ongoing drone activity across multiple regions in Ukraine. The use of drones in Kharkiv overnight resulted in damage to civilian infrastructure and one reported stress-related injury.

In the Kursk region, fighting continues, with reports of significant North Korean casualties and the withdrawal of North Korean troops. The situation in the Kursk region remains tense, with ongoing battles and claims of Ukrainian forces attempting to hold their positions for 100 days.

Geopolitically, the US exit from the UN Human Rights Council signals a significant shift in US foreign policy. Additionally, statements from US President Donald Trump regarding potential US involvement in Gaza add another layer of complexity to the international landscape.

Casualty reports from Ukrainian sources indicate substantial Russian losses, although these figures should be treated with caution.

The beginning of Patria 6x6 APC production in Latvia for Ukraine represents a significant development in terms of military aid and support for Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The discussion of the digital ruble in the Russian Duma highlights the ongoing efforts to adapt to the economic challenges posed by the conflict and international sanctions.

The overall strategic implications of these developments underscore the evolving nature of the conflict, with a notable increase in the use of drone warfare and ongoing efforts by both sides to gain territorial advantage. The geopolitical landscape continues to shift, with potential ramifications for the future course of the conflict. The intensification of fighting in several regions suggests that both sides are seeking to achieve decisive gains, potentially leading to further escalation in the coming days and weeks.

Situation Report