Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 05:38 UTC

Major Updates

Drone Warfare

• Confirmed Drone Attack on Oil Depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia: A drone attack targeted the "Albashnafta" oil depot in Novominskaya, Kanevsky district, causing a fire in a reservoir. The fire, assigned a second rank of complexity, is localized, with no reported casualties. 55 personnel and 19 units are involved in firefighting. The plant's capacity allows for processing up to 320,000 tons of hydrocarbon raw materials annually.
• Overnight Drone Attacks: Four Ukrainian drones were destroyed overnight, two in the Kursk region and two in the Belgorod region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Drone Attacks in Bryansk Region: A Ukrainian drone attacked the village of Lomakovka in the Starodubsky municipal district, resulting in minor shrapnel wounds to two residents. Drone attacks were also reported in the village of Novy Ropsk, Klimovsky district, injuring a civilian, and in the village of Khinel, Sevsky district.
• Drone Attacks in Belgorod Region: The villages of Mokraya Orlovka and Rozhdestvenka in the Grayvoronsky district, Dvurechnoye and Urazovo in the Valuysky district, Berezovka in the Borisovsky district, Grafovka in the Krasnoyaruzhsky district, and Murom, Novaya Tavolzhanka, and Balki in the Shebekinsky district came under drone attacks.
• Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Russian forces attacked Kharkiv overnight. An administrative building in the Saltovsky district was hit, causing a fire. A nearby apartment building had its windows blown out, and a gas station was damaged. Another hit was reported in the Osnovyansky district, also causing a fire. One person suffered an acute stress reaction. The roof of a non-residential building, an architectural monument, was damaged and caught fire. The roof of another non-residential building was also partially destroyed and caught fire, and the windows of seven buildings of an educational institution were damaged.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: See details in the Drone Warfare section above.
• Military Actions: On the Lyptsi direction, the enemy is reportedly increasing its grouping for a potential counteroffensive. Personnel (possibly from the 92nd Assault Brigade), armored vehicles, and air defense systems with a new tactical sign ("arrow in a square") have been transferred from Chuhuiv.
• Ukrainian Counterattack near Lyptsi: Ukrainian forces are unsuccessfully attempting to counterattack near Lyptsi, according to the head of the VGA region, Vitaly Ganchev.
• Advance near Urazovo: Russian forces have advanced near Urazovo, occupying a new section of territory near Topoli, between Urazovo in the Valuysky district of Belgorod and Dvurechnoye in the Kupyansk direction of Kharkiv. The advance is reported to be up to 1 km deep and up to 3 km wide.
• North of Kupiansk: On the right bank of the Oskil River, Russian forces are expanding their foothold near Zapadnoe.
• Ukrainian Positions Restored near Nadiivka: Ukrainian forces have reportedly restored positions near Nadiivka.
• Enemy Advances near Zapadne, Kindrashivka, and Topoliv: Enemy forces are reported to have advanced near these locations, according to DeepState. ISW also reports enemy advances near Kupyansk.

Donetsk Region

• Chasiv Yar: Fighting continues on the western outskirts of the city. Enemy resources acknowledge the advance of Russian troops. Russian forces have taken control of the territory of the first workshop of the refractory plant and are advancing towards the "Shevchenko" area.
• Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk): Fighting is taking place on the northern outskirts of the city near the "Fomikha" mine's spoil tip and near the "Toretska" mine.
• Konstantinopil Direction: Russian forces are developing success in Dachnoe.
• Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmiisk) Direction: The advance of Russian troops towards the Dnipropetrovsk region has led some residents to prepare basements for living during anticipated hostilities. They are stocking up on canned goods and other long-life provisions. Earlier, Ukrainian authorities announced an evacuation in some frontline settlements of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Civilian Casualties in Horlivka: Ten civilians were wounded by Ukrainian shelling in Horlivka, Donetsk People's Republic. The enemy used artillery against the "Komsomolets" market and drones against city buses, garbage trucks, and cars.
• Ivano-Daryivka: Russian assault units entered the settlement and engaged Ukrainian forces.
• Krasnoarmiisk Direction: Fierce fighting is reported on the Zverevo-Chushkilino-Lysovka line, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to hold defensive positions, especially on the approaches to Krasnoarmiisk. Russian forces have taken fire control of a section leading to the Selidovo-Krasnoarmiisk highway, which supplies the Ukrainian garrison in the area. Positional fighting is reported in Lysovka, with Ukrainian forces attempting to attack.

Kursk Region

• Russian forces of the "North" troop grouping are fighting to liberate Sverdlykove, as well as in the forest belts of the Sudzhansky district and on the approaches to Malaya Loknya.

Luhansk Region

• Siversk Direction: Fighting is ongoing in Verkhnekamenskoye and to the northeast of the village.

Military and Political Developments

• Ukrainian Air Force Activity: Reports of enemy tactical aviation activity on the eastern front. There is a threat of the use of aerial weapons. Launches of guided aerial bombs by tactical aviation in Donetsk Oblast are reported.
• Geopolitical Developments:
  • The US is exiting the UN Human Rights Council and ceasing funding for certain UN structures.
• Casualty Reports:
  • The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an estimated 1,140 Russian casualties in the past day, along with the destruction of 9 tanks, 12 armored fighting vehicles, and 52 artillery systems.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reportedly lost over 240 troops and two ammunition depots in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours. Overall losses are reported to exceed 56,000.

Other

• Latvia Begins Production of Patria 6x6 APCs for Ukraine: The Ukrainian Embassy in Latvia announced that Latvia has begun producing the first batch of Patria 6x6 armored personnel carriers (APCs) for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The vehicles are being produced at the "Defence Partnership Latvia" plant in Valmiera, with components manufactured in several Latvian cities. The plant is expected to produce 160 units per year. The Patria 6x6 is a modular vehicle with a Scania diesel engine, automatic transmission, and a capacity for 10 soldiers. It has a range of over 700 km and a top speed of 100 km/h. The armor meets STANAG 4569 standards.
• Digital Ruble: The Russian State Duma considers the digital ruble a convenient tool for long-term savings, citing its traceability as a deterrent to fraud.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains intense, with significant developments in drone warfare, particularly the confirmed attack on the "Albashnafta" oil depot in Krasnodar Krai, Russia. This attack, coupled with continued drone activity across multiple regions, highlights the persistent threat to critical infrastructure and the potential for escalation. The use of drones in Kharkiv overnight resulted in damage to civilian infrastructure and one reported stress-related injury.

In the Kharkiv region, the reported increase in enemy grouping near Lyptsi and the unsuccessful Ukrainian counterattack in the area suggest a potential shift in focus for Russian forces. The reported advance near Urazovo further indicates Russian efforts to expand their territorial control in the region.

In the Donetsk region, fighting continues near Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and in the Konstantinopil direction, with Russian forces making incremental gains. The advance towards the Dnipropetrovsk region is causing concern among residents, leading to preparations for prolonged hostilities.

In the Kursk region, Russian forces are engaged in combat operations aimed at liberating several settlements.

Geopolitically, the US exit from the UN Human Rights Council signals a significant shift in US foreign policy.

Casualty reports from Ukrainian sources indicate substantial Russian losses, although these figures should be treated with caution.

The beginning of Patria 6x6 APC production in Latvia for Ukraine represents a significant development in terms of military aid and support for Ukraine's defense capabilities.

The discussion of the digital ruble in the Russian Duma highlights the ongoing efforts to adapt to the economic challenges posed by the conflict and international sanctions.

The overall strategic implications of these developments underscore the evolving nature of the conflict, with a notable increase in the use of drone warfare and ongoing efforts by both sides to gain territorial advantage. The geopolitical landscape continues to shift, with potential ramifications for the future course of the conflict.