Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 5, 2025, 00:08 UTC

Major Updates

Drone Warfare

• Continued Drone Activity: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements:

  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are moving westward.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones in the south are moving towards Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are moving in a southwesterly direction.
  • Poltava Oblast: Drones are heading towards Cherkasy.
  • Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones in the center are moving southeast.
  • Sumy Oblast: Drones are moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: There is a threat of attack drones.

  "Nikolaevsky Vanyok" reports the following drone movements:

  • One drone flew past Zviahel, flying in Khmelnytskyi Oblast towards Starokonstantinov.
  • One drone south of Zhytomyr, heading west.
  • Two drones in the Korosten area, heading west.
  • Two drones circling south of Bila Tserkva.
  • Three drones from Kirovohrad Oblast are moving into Cherkasy Oblast.
  • One drone is circling south of Kropyvnytskyi.
  • One drone heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • Two drones circling near Kremenchuk.
  • One drone in the east of Kyiv Oblast.
  • One drone circling in the north of Chernihiv Oblast.
  • One drone from Sumy Oblast has moved into Kharkiv Oblast.
  • Two drones in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, heading northwest.

Luhansk Region

• Nadiivka: Ukrainian forces have reportedly regained positions near Nadiivka.
• Zakhidne, Kindrashivka, Topoli: Russian forces have reportedly advanced near these settlements.
• Oleksandropil: The situation in this area has been clarified, suggesting a change in control or contested territory.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Position on Gaza: US President Donald Trump stated that the US is ready to "take the Gaza Strip" and engage in clearing the enclave. This statement has significant implications for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and could potentially impact the broader Middle East situation.
• New Russian Regulations on Foreign Nationals: Starting February 5, 2025, the Russian Federation will implement a new "expulsion regime" for foreign nationals residing illegally in the country. This regime will involve the creation of a registry of controlled persons, imposing restrictions on their rights and freedoms. Foreign nationals in this registry will face limitations on movement, property ownership, marriage, business activities, and banking. They will also be required to report to internal affairs authorities, and repeated non-compliance could lead to deportation. The registry will be publicly accessible, allowing individuals and legal entities, including employers, to verify the status of foreign nationals. This new regulation could have implications for the situation in Ukraine, particularly regarding the movement and status of individuals in Russian-controlled territories.

Russian Military

• "Time of Heroes" Program: The program has seen a significant increase in applications from highly decorated veterans, including an 18-fold increase in applicants with four Orders of Courage and a 1.5-fold increase in Heroes of Russia. This surge in interest suggests that the program is perceived as valuable and potentially linked to career advancement opportunities within the Russian system.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains dynamic, with drone warfare continuing to be a major aspect of the conflict. The latest reports indicate ongoing drone movements across multiple regions, including Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Poltava, Zhytomyr, Sumy, and Khmelnytskyi Oblasts. Ukrainian forces have reportedly regained positions near Nadiivka in the Luhansk region, while Russian forces have made advances near Zakhidne, Kindrashivka, and Topoli. The situation around Oleksandropil has been clarified, suggesting a shift in the frontline.

The new "expulsion regime" for foreign nationals in Russia could have implications for the conflict, particularly in Russian-controlled areas of Ukraine. The increased interest in the "Time of Heroes" program among highly decorated veterans suggests a potential link between military service, recognition, and career advancement within the Russian power structure.

US President Trump's statement regarding the Gaza Strip adds a new dimension to the geopolitical landscape and could potentially impact the broader Middle East situation, with indirect implications for the conflict in Ukraine.