Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 4, 2025, 23:38 UTC
Major Updates
Drone Warfare
- Continued Drone Activity: New reports indicate ongoing drone movements across various regions:
- Four drones are approaching Kropyvnytskyi.
- One drone flew past Pervomaisk heading north.
- One drone is in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, heading northwest.
- Two drones are circling east of Cherkasy.
- One drone is south of Smila, heading south.
- Two drones are circling south of Sumy.
- Three drones have moved from Cherkasy Oblast to the Bilotserkivskyi district.
- Four drones are circling in the north of Kyiv Oblast.
- Zaporizhzhia Region: The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
Russian Military Updates
- Changes to Military Regulations: A comparison of two editions of the Russian Armed Forces Internal Service Regulations reveals a significant change. The 2006 edition included a section titled "Order (command), the procedure for its issuance and execution. The initiative of military personnel," which emphasized the importance of "reasonable initiative" in successfully completing tasks, especially when the received order does not correspond to a rapidly changing situation. However, the 2024 edition omits "The initiative of military personnel" from the section title, and the reference to initiative is reduced to a single sentence: "A soldier, in order to successfully complete the task assigned to him, must show reasonable initiative." This suggests a shift towards stricter adherence to orders and a potential decrease in the value placed on independent decision-making by soldiers in the field.
- Su-75 Checkmate Production: The Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aircraft Plant (KnAAZ) is preparing to repair fighter jets and manufacture prototypes of the Su-75 Checkmate. The plant's director announced that they are deploying aircraft repair facilities and are preparing to assemble two prototypes of the T-75 for static and flight tests. If serial production of the new aircraft begins, the construction of an additional site for the assembly of the Su-75 may be initiated.
Geopolitical Developments
- Baltic Sea Cables: The Finnish Foreign Minister, Elina Valtonen, stated that she does not believe the damage to cables in the Baltic Sea was accidental. She added that Finnish authorities are continuing their investigation.
Other
- Darya Dugina Case: The manufacturer of forged documents for the killers of Darya Dugina received 50 rubles per copy. The documents were fabricated using Photoshop, according to materials from the criminal case reviewed by TASS.
Updated Situation
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic, with drone warfare continuing to be a significant aspect of the conflict. New reports indicate ongoing drone movements across various regions, including Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Sumy, and Kyiv Oblasts, suggesting a persistent aerial threat. The lifting of the air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region provides a temporary reprieve for that area.
The changes to the Russian military regulations, specifically the reduced emphasis on "initiative of military personnel," suggest a potential shift towards a more rigid command structure and may have implications for the adaptability and responsiveness of Russian forces on the battlefield. The preparations for Su-75 Checkmate production at KnAAZ indicate ongoing efforts to modernize the Russian Air Force and potentially introduce a new generation of fighter aircraft.
The Finnish Foreign Minister's statement regarding the damaged Baltic Sea cables adds another layer to the geopolitical tensions in the region, suggesting potential sabotage and raising questions about the security of critical infrastructure. The new information regarding the Darya Dugina case provides further details on the assassination and the methods used by those involved but does not directly impact the military situation on the ground.
