Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine: February 4, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Major Updates

Donetsk Region

Pokrovsk Direction: The situation remains extremely dire. Russian forces are within 2 kilometers of Myrnohrad and 3 kilometers of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Intense fighting is reported near Yelyzavetivka, Vodyane Druhe, and Baranivka. One of the two main routes from Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) to Dnipro is blocked. Ukrainian forces repelled 28 attacks in this area, 4 are ongoing.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Zelene Pole, with reports of a push towards the settlement and ongoing battles. The use of drones, artillery, and aviation suggests a concerted effort to weaken Ukrainian defenses and secure strategic positions. The reported advance of up to 1200 meters south of Baranivka towards Zelene Pole signifies a significant tactical gain. The destruction of Ukrainian strongholds and capture of several опорних пунктів (strongpoints) of the 79th Separate Assault Brigade demonstrate the intensity and success of Russian operations.
- Russian forces are close to liberating Dachne, with increased pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
- Russian forces report they have taken Sribne and are completing a clear-out operation. Ukrainian forces confirm heavy fighting continues.
- Positional fighting continues in the Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk) area, with Russian forces advancing 1 km along the railway towards Krasnoarmiisk and securing new positions.
- An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
- Over 15,000 enemy troops were reportedly neutralized in the Pokrovsk direction in January 2025, with approximately 7,000 being irreversibly lost.
- Ukrainian forces are focusing on disrupting Russian offensive plans and depleting their combat potential.
- Since the beginning of the day, 27 attacks have been reported near Malynivka, Novopoltavka, Zelene Pole, Tarasivka, Myroliubivka, Yelyzavetivka, Promin, Lysivka, Udachne, Nadiivka, Uspenivka, Novooleksandrivka, and Dachne.
- Ukrainian forces have eliminated 246 Russian soldiers, 124 of them irreversibly. They have destroyed 2 tanks, 7 vehicles, 3 motorcycles, 1 BM-21 "Grad", 1 artillery piece, 3 UAV control antennas, and 1 satellite communication system.
- The loss of Shevchenkivske on the Pokrovsk axis means Kyiv has lost access to 13.8 million tons of lithium ores.
- Russian forces, with an advance near Terniv, have reportedly improved their tactical position and destroyed three strongholds, a Western artillery installation, and several Ukrainian vehicles.
- Eight armed deserters from among the "zeks" (prisoners) reported near Pokrovsk.
- Russian forces are reportedly using self-propelled artillery near Novohrodivka to prepare for attacks on Pokrovsk, located approximately 5 km away.
- In Donetsk Oblast, a mandatory evacuation of children has been announced from 12 settlements in the Shakhivska community.
Kramatorsk Direction: Russian forces have made advances south of Rozlyv and expanded their control in the Dachne area, with increased assault activities. A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, injuring 13 people, including two children. One person was killed in Ivanopil, and another was wounded in Chasiv Yar.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi and Severnyi districts. They have taken a position on a spoil tip on the western outskirts of the Blok-9 mine.
- The bulk of the Severnyi district is under Russian control, with ongoing battles on the southwestern outskirts.
- Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the southwest, maintaining the initiative despite no significant changes in the last 24 hours.
- Russian troops are completing the cleanup of the Severnyi microdistrict and are destroying Ukrainian forces in the Shevchenko microdistrict.
- Russian units also took positions in the buildings south of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and advanced in the area of the Dolgoe-II tract south of the Novyi microdistrict.
- The Ukrainian Armed Forces are concentrating forces in the area of Dniprovska Street in the Shevchenko microdistrict, trying to hold the south of the city.
Kurakhove: Most of the city has been captured, with heavy fighting in the eastern part of Andriivka. West of Kurakhove, Russian troops are advancing in the Dachne and Andriivka areas, with half of the Dachne settlement cleared.
- Intense fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces successfully targeting and destroying a Russian tank.
- Six Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered, claiming abandonment by their command.
- Positional fighting was observed in the Kurakhove - Dachne area. The forward position of the Russian Armed Forces south of Dachne was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces expanded their control west of Kurakhove, advancing 400 meters along the front.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are under immense strain, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts and near several mines.
- Ukrainian forces report battles for the "Toretska" mine, with 90-95% of the city under Russian control.
- Russian forces are applying significant pressure around Chasiv Yar, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove.
- Krymske has been liberated by Russian forces.
Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske: Active combat operations continue near Siversk. Russian forces launched an attack towards Verkhnokamyanske, resulting in troops landing in the central part of the settlement. They reportedly advanced 1.5 km in the Siversk direction and occupied new positions in Verkhnokamyanske.
- Russian forces struck a Ukrainian group in the Zolotarivka Reserve, reaching the administrative border of the Luhansk People's Republic and taking control of a 1 km area.
- Russian forces eliminated a pocket east of Verkhnokamyanske and occupied the eastern part.
- There are reports of failed Russian attacks near Verkhnokamyanske, with issues in the 6th Motorized Rifle Brigade.
Other Locations: Advances are reported near Uspenivka. Assault groups have advanced to the area of Alekseevka. Fierce fighting is reported in Zelenovka. Further advances are reported near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka. Solone has reportedly been liberated. Russian forces are advancing near Novоandreevka and Slavyanka.
Horlivka: Ukrainian forces reportedly used FPV drones with cluster munitions. Ten civilians were injured in Horlivka due to shelling.
Vuhledar: Russian sappers discovered mines made with 3D printers, indicating a new development in mine warfare.
Dzerzhynsk Direction: Russian forces continue to increase their firepower near Dzerzhynsk and are expanding their control towards Shcherbynivka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense claims the liberation of Krymskoe, with 70% of the village under their control.
- Russian forces have advanced to the center of Shcherbynivka and eliminated the pocket between Dzerzhynsk and Shcherbynivka.
Novopavlivsk Direction: One Russian attack was reported in the direction of Kostyantynopil. Six attacks have been reported near Kostiantynopil, Rozdilne, and Novyi Komar. Two engagements are ongoing.
Huliaipole Direction: Russian aviation targeted Novopil. Two attacks were reported near Novosilka.
Orikhiv Direction: One combat engagement is reported near Kamyanske.
Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control.
Nadezhdinka, Krasnoarmiisk Direction: A Ukrainian M2A2 Bradley IFV was hit by an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) and subsequently abandoned its own soldier.
Bogatyrskoe Direction: Positions southwest of Dachnoe are under Russian control.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces destroyed two FPV drone repeaters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The enemy positions were burned down along with the equipment.

Luhansk Region

Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Zakhidne, and Ivanivka, moving towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River.
Kupiansk: Russian forces have approached the northern outskirts of Kupiansk, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces are deploying reinforcements.
Bohuslavka: Battles have been initiated.
Novoyehorivka: An "operational cauldron" is forming around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
Kupyansk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled 18 Russian attacks near Petropavlivka, Pishchane, Stepova Novoselivka, Bohuslavka, Zahryzove, and Lozova. Three engagements are ongoing.
Lyman Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled eight Russian attacks near Novoiehorivka, Novoliubivka, Makiivka, Yampolivka, and Serebrianka.
Ukrainian military expert Andrey Marochko reported that Kyiv lost almost 37,000 soldiers and mercenaries on the borders of the Luhansk People's Republic in January.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory. Several settlements have been captured, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino is confirmed.
Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky.
Sudzha: Russian forces are bypassing the city from the south.
A Ukrainian assault force was destroyed during an attempted landing near Tetkino.
Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Russian forces are advancing, with battles near Sverdlykove and nearby forested areas.
Reports indicate that contractors have allegedly embezzled over 3 billion rubles allocated for the construction of fortifications.
Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults in the Kursk region.
The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Russian forces are continuing to advance in the region of Sverdlikovo and north of Guevo.
Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops.
Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
The death of the Deputy Governor of Primorsky Krai, Sergei Efremov, in the Kursk region has been confirmed.
Ukrainian forces repelled 12 attacks in the Kursk direction. Five engagements are ongoing.
There are fierce battles in Sverdlikovo and the surrounding forest belts.
There is an advance in the north of the Sudzhansky district.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces are transferring all possible reserves to the Sudzhansky district, including Ukrainian border guards from the 94th border detachment of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine.
Russian forces report that the enemy grouping in the Kursk direction has been completely defeated. The remnants of the enemy's forces have been pushed back across the border. The enemy has reportedly lost 1,653 troops, 3 tanks, 10 armored vehicles, 23 vehicles, 6 artillery pieces, and 2 MLRS.
Fighters of the 253rd Separate Assault Battalion "AREY" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army reportedly destroyed a group of 15 Russian soldiers and captured 3 during combat operations in the Kursk region. Another Ukrainian soldier has been detained for killing a civilian in Russkoye Porechnoe.
In Makhnovka, a significant number of North Korean soldiers were reported killed.
The Ukrainian Armed Forces have suffered significant losses in the Kursk region, with over 240 troops and two ammunition depots lost in the past 24 hours. Overall losses are reported to exceed 56,000.
Reports of significant North Korean casualties.
The situation in Makhnovka remains fluid, with control shifting between Russian and Ukrainian forces. While Russian forces initially entered the settlement and engaged in heavy fighting, they were unable to maintain control due to Ukrainian drone activity and unfavorable weather conditions. The southern part of the village is currently considered a "grey zone".
Fighting for Makhnovka is expected to resume once weather conditions improve.
An "operational pause" is currently in effect across most of the Kursk direction.
About 50 soldiers of the Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to attack near Volchansk, but the attack lasted for over 7 hours, after which the Ukrainian Armed Forces "scattered through the forest".

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: Multiple reports of drone attacks and explosions in Kharkiv and surrounding areas. A fire broke out at an energy facility.
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna. Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.
Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling.
Vovchansk: Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the north of the region.
A missile strike on Izium has resulted in 55 casualties, including a 14-year-old girl in critical condition. Among the deceased are a 44-year-old man, a 69-year-old man, two girls aged 18 and 19 (one of whom was pregnant), and another unidentified man. The attack also partially destroyed the city council building and damaged 170 residential apartments.
Russian forces report destroying a Ukrainian UAV control point in the Kharkiv region.
Two girls, one of them pregnant, were killed in shelling in Izium. Five people were killed, and 55 injured.
Russian troops are reportedly using a donkey to transport ammunition due to a shortage of vehicles.
Russian forces reportedly destroyed a group of foreign mercenaries near Orikhiv.
Russian forces targeted Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region with Su-25 aircraft, launching missiles at low altitudes.
Russian FPV drones attacked a truck in the Synelnykivskyi district of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, killing one and injuring another.
Transport of Ukrainian forces is under attack by drones of the «Hart» brigade near Vovchansk.

Zaporizhzhia Region

An air raid alert has been declared and later lifted, then declared again and canceled, then declared again and canceled, then declared again.
At least five people were injured in attacks on Zaporizhzhia, Kupiansk, and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Russia attacked the region 401 times overnight.
Two people were injured in shelling in Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia region.
Soldiers of the 59th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade reportedly targeted Russians on the western outskirts of Novovasylivka.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Drone Activity: Confirmed drone attacks inside Russia, with a massive overnight attack involving over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south.
Finnish Drone: Finnish military to test Insta's "Steel Eagle" drone in combat, designed to destroy enemy manpower with a tungsten ball charge. Ukrainian forces have used similar drones before. Concerns raised about potential use against civilians.
Ukrainian forces report that Russia launched 100 drones overnight, with 65 shot down by Ukrainian air defenses.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports drones in the northern part of Sumy Oblast, moving towards Chernihiv Oblast.
The Ryazan oil refinery has suspended operations following a Ukrainian drone attack.
A ground control station for swarms of drones has been created in Russia, designed to work with an unlimited number of drones using a single device.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports shooting down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
The Ukrainian Navy reported that naval personnel "landed" a Russian "Shahed" drone overnight.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that 104 Ukrainian drones were intercepted and destroyed.
The Ukrainian "Achilles" drone unit claims to have destroyed or damaged 1,942 enemy targets in January 2025.
Russian forces are reportedly destroying Ukrainian drones on the Kherson direction.
A mobile fire group of the "Steel Border" brigade reportedly shot down a Shahed drone in the Sumy direction.
Activity of UAVs was observed in the Sumy region, air defense was working.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of drone attacks in the Kharkiv region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of drones in the Kharkiv area and warns of possible anti-aircraft defense activity.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of drone attacks in Sumy Oblast.
Drone movements are reported as follows: "Shahed" drones in the Sumy region are moving south-west. Drones on the border of Sumy and Kharkiv regions are moving south-east. Drones in the south of Sumy region are moving towards Poltava region. 8 drones are moving from Sumy region to Poltava region. 3 drones are in Sumy region, with the same course. 1 drone is north of Kharkiv, moving east. There is a threat of drone attacks for Kirovohrad and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts. The Ukrainian Air Force reports "Shahed" drones near Pechenihy heading east and two groups of "Shaheds" in Poltava Oblast heading south, one of them towards Poltava. "Shahed" drones are also reported in the north of Sumy Oblast near Bilopillia and Khotin.
8 drones are moving from Sumy region to Poltava region, while 3 drones are in the Sumy region with the same course. There is 1 drone north of Kharkiv and moving east.
Five drones are reported flying over Kremenchuk towards Oleksandriia, four new drones in the Sumy region heading south, five drones in the Konotop area heading west, and two drones in the western part of Kharkiv Oblast heading south.
"Shaheds" are reported in Kirovohrad region heading west.
A Russian drone fell and detonated on the territory of a private house in the Romny community of the Sumy region. According to preliminary data, there were no casualties, but private houses were damaged.
One drone is approaching Vyshgorod.
Kyiv region is under threat of attack drones.
Kharkiv and Sumy regions are under threat of reconnaissance drones.
There is a threat of attack drones for Zaporizhzhia.
New Drone Movements:
- One drone has moved from the north of Kyiv Oblast to Zhytomyr Oblast.
- Five drones have passed Pryluki towards Cherkasy Oblast.
- Three drones have passed Nizhyn towards Kyiv Oblast.
- One drone each is reported to the west and east of Chernihiv.
- Two drones are circling in the Sumy region.
- Three drones are moving from Sumy Oblast to Poltava Oblast.
- One drone is at the intersection of Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, heading northeast.
- Zhytomyr Oblast, Korosten district - the threat of attack drones.
- Mykolaiv region is under threat from attack drones.
- Kyiv - Shahed drones are approaching, posing a threat, and air defense is likely to be activated.
- Kherson region is under threat from attack drones.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the south of Kherson region heading towards Mykolaiv.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the south of Sumy region moving southwest.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the north of Sumy region heading southwest.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the center of Kyiv region heading towards the capital. In the north, they are heading towards Zhytomyr region.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the center of Chernihiv region heading southeast.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the west of Poltava region heading towards Cherkasy region.
- "Shahed" drones are reported in the north of Cherkasy region heading west.
- "Shahed" drones are reported on Kherson region heading towards Mykolaiv Oblast.
- "Shahed" drones are reported on Mykolaiv region heading towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
- "Shahed" drones are reported on Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, heading towards Dnipro.
Air Raid Alerts: Kyiv has declared an air raid alert again. Explosions were heard in Kyiv. Air defense forces are operating on the left bank of Kyiv. Four drones were reported moving from Brovary to Kyiv.

Other Regions

Rivne Region: SBU detains two terrorists in Rivne region. A complex of appropriate investigative and counter-terrorist actions is currently underway. Two individuals were detained in Rivne for attempting to plant explosives at a police station.
In the Rivne region, people took to the streets to protest against checkpoints. The main demands voiced by the citizens were not to check vehicles and military registration documents for men, to remove the checkpoint, and to allow unimpeded collection of wild plants near the state border. Around 6 p.m., the rally turned into a mass brawl, or rather a beating by residents of the Rivne region of employees of the 6th border detachment who catch evaders on the border with Belarus. The most interesting thing is that the protesters achieved their goal: the checkpoints were removed, citizens were provided with unhindered access to the border area, as reported by representatives of the village administration.
An explosion occurred near a TCC in Pavlohrad, injuring one person.
The injured individual from the explosion near the TCC in Pavlohrad sustained only minor injuries. The Dnipropetrovsk Regional TCC is cooperating with the police to investigate the incident.
Three policemen were reportedly killed in an airstrike in the Yunakivka community of the Sumy region.

Geopolitical Developments

US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is scheduled to visit Ukraine in mid-February for a meeting with Zelensky. Following the visit, Kellogg will travel to Europe for negotiations and later participate in the Munich Security Conference, along with Trump and J.D. Vance.
The Ukrainian government reports that Russian forces beheaded a Ukrainian soldier. The identity of the deceased has been preliminarily established, and the information has been passed to the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine. Some Z-channels claim the soldier was executed for "mistreating civilians in the Kursk region." The authenticity of the photographs is not confirmed.
Trump has appointed Steve Witkoff as a special representative for Russia and Ukraine, according to media reports.
Trump claims significant progress has been made in the settlement of the situation in Ukraine, according to the press pool.
China has received requests to hold a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine on February 24 and pledges to organize it properly, according to the Permanent Representative.
China plans to hold a new meeting in the near future within the framework of the "Friends of the World" platform on Ukraine to assess the situation, the Permanent Representative noted.
Ukraine is reportedly ready to exchange rare earth metals for US aid, according to adjusted plans under Trump's potential presidency.
The US is reportedly pushing for increased financial support from Europe for Ukraine to match US contributions.
Defense Express reports that the ban on using Western weapons deep inside Russia has been lifted.
Defense Express reports Ukraine has weapons capable of striking up to 2,500 km inside Russia.
Trump is reportedly preparing to reinstate a "maximum pressure" policy on Iran, aimed at blocking all paths to nuclear weapons and weakening Tehran's regional influence. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu will meet with Trump in the US to discuss Iran's nuclear program, including the possibility of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The Russian Foreign Minister compared statements made by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and members of Trump's team to Nazi slogans, claiming they aim to destroy the international legal system. He stated that the US should accept a role as one of the leading states, but not as a hegemon, and that multipolarity is strengthening.
Markarova's statement regarding Kellogg's comments on elections in Ukraine indicates that this issue was discussed in 2023-24, with the position that elections should only take place after the end of hostilities.
Macron and Scholz express readiness to respond to Trump's tariffs with similar measures if US President Donald Trump imposes them on European goods.
European Commission warns of decisive retaliatory action if Trump imposes new tariffs on the EU. The EU will firmly respond to the US if Washington imposes duties on European goods, the head of the European Commission said.
The UN report on Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war since late August 2024 adds another layer of brutality to the conflict. The reported increase in such executions following the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region suggests a potential pattern of retaliatory actions. The mention of Ramzan Kadyrov's order to not take Ukrainian soldiers as prisoners, although later retracted, further underscores the potential for war crimes and human rights violations.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio is appointed as the acting head of USAID.
All EU countries agree on the need to increase defense spending, according to the head of the European Council, Antonio Costa.
A phone call between Trump and Xi Jinping is expected to take place in the next couple of days, according to White House spokesperson Caroline Leavitt. Trump himself stated that the call would likely take place "within the next 24 hours". Trump also warned that if an agreement with China cannot be reached, tariffs will be "very, very substantial". The call will reportedly focus on the issue of "illegal Chinese fentanyl".
Trump confirmed that the US will suspend the introduction of tariffs against Canada for 30 days to conclude a trade agreement.
Trump signed a decree suspending the introduction of tariffs against Mexico, effective no earlier than March 4, 2025. This decision follows a phone call between Trump and the Mexican president, during which Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to the US border to curb the flow of fentanyl and illegal immigrants.
The "Oreshnik" system will be deployed in Belarus, as agreed upon by the presidents of both countries, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.
Many countries have expressed their willingness to host future negotiations to resolve the conflict in Ukraine, according to the head of the second department of the CIS countries of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Alexei Polishchuk.
Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is visiting Ukraine. He will visit a Kyiv substation to assess damage and help prevent a nuclear accident. An analysis of a photo of Grossi reviewing documents on a train suggests that the IAEA is actively monitoring and assessing the security of nuclear facilities within the conflict zone.
Zelensky announced that there are already working dates for the arrival of the American team. The Office of the President has already held talks with Trump's national security adviser Waltz, as well as with the team of special representative Kellogg. Details on the dates and composition of the delegation are currently being agreed upon.
President Zelensky announced that Ukraine is ready to cooperate with the United States in the development of mineral resources.
Great Britain promises record military aid to Ukraine and active participation in peace processes, including military deployment.
President Zelensky's address reiterates the importance of the Pokrovsk direction and the Kursk region operation. His emphasis on army modernization, the transition to a corps structure, and the need for qualified leadership indicates a long-term strategy to strengthen Ukraine's defense capabilities. The recognition of specific assault regiments highlights the ongoing efforts and sacrifices of Ukrainian forces.
Trump's claim of "significant progress" in resolving the Ukraine conflict and his appointment of a special representative for Russia and Ukraine suggest a potential shift in US policy. His statement about wanting to exchange rare earth metals for aid indicates a transactional approach to international relations, which could have significant implications for Ukraine.
China's involvement in organizing a UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine and hosting a "Friends of the World" platform meeting underscores the growing international interest and potential for great power competition surrounding the conflict.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stated that Ukraine should not agree to lose the war and that NATO countries should ensure Russia does not achieve its goals. He also called on Europe and Germany to spend more on defense.
Zelensky discusses the development of the Ukrainian Air Force.
Ukraine is now ready for a diplomatic path and to speak with Putin if deemed necessary, according to Zelensky. He also stated that Ukraine is in a better situation than at the beginning of the war.
Ukraine is ready for the end of the "hot phase" of the war, according to Zelensky.
Hamas has rejected Trump's proposal to relocate Palestinians from Gaza, calling it an attempt to "liquidate the Palestinian cause".
Trump stated that Palestinians would be happy to relocate from the Gaza Strip: "I don't understand how they could want to stay. This is a place where everything is destroyed," the US President emphasized. "I would like Jordan and Egypt to take some [of the Palestinians]," he added.
The German authorities are reportedly "open to the idea" of deploying NATO troops to Greenland, following Trump's statements about Greenland joining the US.
Zelensky acknowledged that the Ukrainian Armed Forces are incapable of retaking lost territories and blamed the West for insufficient support.
Zelensky also claimed that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost 45,100 troops in the conflict.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and complex. In the Donetsk region, the situation around Pokrovsk is extremely precarious, with Russian forces making significant advances and Ukrainian forces struggling to hold their ground. Russian forces destroyed two FPV drone repeaters of the Ukrainian Armed Forces near Pokrovsk. Chasiv Yar also sees intense fighting, with Russian forces gaining control of a significant portion of the city. Fighting continues around Kurakhove, Toretsk, and Siversk - Verkhnokamyanske, with varying degrees of Russian success. Ukrainian forces repelled 80 attacks across all fronts.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces continue their advance towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have regained territory, capturing several settlements. The intensity of fighting in this area is compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

Kharkiv region continues to experience drone attacks and shelling, with Russian forces reportedly liberating Dvorichna. Zaporizhzhia region saw renewed air raid alerts and attacks.

Drone warfare remains a significant aspect of the conflict, with a massive overnight attack involving over 100 drones targeting central Russia and the south. New drone movements have been reported, with Kyiv under renewed threat and air raid alerts in effect. Air defense forces are actively engaging drones, particularly around Kyiv. New reports indicate drone movements in Kherson, Mykolaiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Zhytomyr, and Vinnytsia regions, posing a threat to multiple areas. Air defense is actively engaging drones in Kyiv Oblast.

Geopolitically, the situation is also evolving rapidly. Trump's claim of progress in resolving the conflict and his appointment of a special representative suggest a potential shift in US policy. Ukraine's reported readiness to exchange rare earth metals for US aid indicates a possible shift in the dynamics of international support. China's increasing involvement in the diplomatic process adds another layer of complexity. The rejection of Trump's proposal by Hamas adds another layer to the geopolitical complexities, as does Trump's latest statement about the relocation of Palestinians. Zelensky's statements about the Ukrainian Armed Forces' inability to retake lost territories and the readiness for the end of the "hot phase" of the war indicate a potential shift in Ukraine's strategy.

Situation Report