Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 29, 2025, 04:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive momentum across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement and capture of Velyka Novosilka are major strategic and symbolic victories for Russian forces, opening avenues for further advances towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory, including the confirmed liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino, and inflicting heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including a new attack on Odesa, an overnight attack on Cherkasy Oblast causing damage, and requiring the deployment of air defense, as well as a confirmed drone attack on Kyiv that has now been repelled. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, as demonstrated by new video evidence of coordinated drone strikes on enemy positions, vehicles, and personnel, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes, as well as employing MLRS systems for area bombardment, as shown in the latest footage.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement and captured the city, signifying a major symbolic victory and a significant strategic loss for Ukraine.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • Ukrainian forces are using "Vampire" and "Baba Yaga" drones to try to stop the Russian advance.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Velyka Novosilka towards Dnipropetrovsk.
  • The capture of Velyka Novosilka opens up opportunities for Russian forces to advance towards Bohatyr and the remaining part of the Donetsk People's Republic south of the Vovcha River.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
  • Ukrainian losses in the Pokrovsk direction are estimated to be over 94,000 killed.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line towards Pokrovsk.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district.
  • Fighting continues in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway.
  • There are reports of battles on the southwestern outskirts of the city.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Chasiv Yar from the southwest.
  • Russian airborne forces, using BM-21 "Grad" and ZRK "Strela-10", targeted Ukrainian positions and a "Valkyrie" drone near Chasiv Yar and Artemivsk.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
  • Heavy fighting is reported in the eastern part of Andriivka, with Russian forces advancing from Shevchenko and Petropavlivka. The capture of Andriivka is strategically important for the defense of Ukrainian forces.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Intense fighting is ongoing on the outskirts of Toretsk.
  • Russian forces are advancing towards Toretsk, with ongoing battles on its outskirts.
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
• Other Locations:
  • Fighting continues in Zverevo. Solone has reportedly been liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Russian forces report further advances near Dachne, Andriivka, Slov'yanka, and Novoandriivka.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka, Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces have suffered significant losses, amounting to over 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, and numerous other military vehicles and equipment.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino has been confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Russian forces are advancing in the Kursk region, with ongoing battles near Sverdlykove and in nearby forested areas.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly deployed over 100 paratroopers to the Sudzhansky district for a counterattack near Nikolsky.
• A Russian reconnaissance drone detected a group of Ukrainian militants in the Kursk border area, which was subsequently destroyed by Russian mortar fire.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack. Overnight, a drone attack targeted a civilian enterprise in the Novobavarskyi district, causing a large fire, damage to a gas pipe and 5 vehicles. Two civilians suffered acute stress reactions. Two drones fell in the Kyivskyi district.
  • Two drones were detected in the Kyivskyi district of Kharkiv, with no reported casualties.
  • In the Rohanska community, a drone attack destroyed a private house and garage, injuring 2 people.
  • In Shestakove, a drone attack caused a fire in a destroyed private house, with no reported casualties.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.
• Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled a Russian attack near Vovchansk.
• Ukrainian forces have reportedly transferred a sabotage and reconnaissance group to Belopolye (Sumy Oblast) on armored fighting vehicles, which was detected and destroyed by Russian drone operators.
• Russian forces have reportedly liberated Dvorichna.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds".
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. Cherkasy Oblast was attacked overnight, with air defenses active. A headquarters for coordinating emergency response has been established in the Umansky district. There is reported damage in the area.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down.
  • Odesa: There is damage to residential buildings due to a Russian drone attack. Four cars caught fire. Explosions were reported in Odesa.
  • Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.
• New Drone Movements:
  • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia.
  • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district. Another drone is in the eastern part of the region, moving west.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone was detected in the region, changing direction towards the region.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine. The alert in Kyiv has now been lifted.
• Reports indicate that Russian forces shelled the Nikopol region seven times during the day.
• Several drones were shot down on the approach to Smolensk.
• The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have intercepted several Ukrainian drones over the Bryansk region.
• A drone was destroyed over Lake Ladoga, with no reported damage or casualties.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: There is a shortage of personnel on the front lines.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
• Musician Andrey Makarevich has reportedly stated that he is not ready to help the Kyiv regime, as a missile bought with his money could theoretically kill his son.

Political/Economic Situation

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days, including aid to Ukraine. The US has frozen the U4U program for Ukrainian refugees.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks rely on foreign components. He also stated that every step of Putin is aimed at making the war endless.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages.
• The volume of chemical production under the federal project is estimated at 11.1 trillion rubles by 2030, according to a report by Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Russia Mikhail Yurin.
• The number of bars in the center of Moscow increased by 8% in 2024, reaching 168.
• Russians will be able to withdraw their pension savings in a lump sum if the amount is less than 412,000 rubles.
• Demand for magical attributes in Russia has increased by 34% in 2024.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They also report that Russian forces have advanced near several settlements.
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces.
• Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments.
• Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground.
• Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
• The channel "Dnevnik Desantnika" reports on the activities of Russian airborne forces and shares a video of musician Andrey Makarevich stating he is not ready to help the Kyiv regime.
• The "Rybare" channel provides a summary of the situation on the morning of January 28, 2025, highlighting the liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region, ongoing battles in Chasiv Yar and Toretsk, and the strategic importance of Velyka Novosilka. It also mentions drone attacks and shelling incidents.
• The "Operatsiya Z" channel shared an image and a description of the situation near Kurakhove, highlighting the importance of Andriivka.
• The "Operativny ZSU" channel shared images and a description of the aftermath of a drone attack on Kharkiv.
• Images of the aftermath of the drone attack on Odesa are being shared on social media.
• New video evidence from the "Colonelcassad" channel shows coordinated drone strikes by the "BT-40" and "KVN" groups, targeting enemy positions, vehicles, and personnel with high precision. The footage demonstrates the use of drones for reconnaissance, target acquisition, and the destruction of enemy assets, with a particular focus on armored vehicle engagements. The video also includes thermal and infrared imaging, indicating operations are being conducted under low visibility conditions. The "BAIKAL 40" and "NARODNY FRONT" logos suggest the unit designation and affiliation of those conducting operations.
• New video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS being loaded and operated, highlighting its ability to launch a large number of unguided rockets at an area. The video displays the importance of logistics as the manual loading process is an undertaking. The use of the targeting equipment suggests an aim at calculated shots rather than precision, indicating targets of large size or area saturation. The video emphasizes the importance of mobility to avoid counter-battery fire.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances on multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk region, with the confirmed capture of Velyka Novosilka representing a major setback for Ukraine. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions, confirmed attacks inside Russia, and a massive overnight attack on Cherkasy Oblast, along with a repelled drone attack on Kyiv, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone movements towards Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv Oblasts, as well as the continued threat to Dnipropetrovsk, indicate a potential expansion and intensification of the drone conflict. The confirmed drone attack on Odesa resulting in damage to residential buildings further underscores the vulnerability of Ukrainian cities to these attacks. The use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast and the deployment of electronic warfare equipment to the front lines indicate continued Russian military activity and technological advancements. The new video evidence of coordinated drone strikes by Ukrainian forces demonstrates their continued ability to target and destroy Russian military assets, while the footage of the Russian BM-21 "Grad" MLRS in operation highlights the ongoing use of area bombardment tactics by Russian forces. The liberation of Nikolaevo-Daryino in the Kursk region, along with the reported advances near Sverdlykove, confirms the Russian forces' continued success in regaining territory in this area. The destruction of a drone over Lake Ladoga indicates the expansion of the conflict zone and the potential targeting of areas further from the front lines. The analysis of the videos from "Colonelcassad" and the Russian Ministry of Defense provides further insight into the tactics and equipment being employed by both sides, highlighting the importance of drone warfare, precision strikes, and area bombardment in the current conflict.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical, given the reported 48 assault actions and the capture of a Ukrainian soldier from the US-trained 153rd Brigade. Address the threat to the left flank of the Pokrovsk sector posed by the Russian assault on Kotlyno.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: Now that the settlement is lost, focus on conducting rearguard actions in the surrounding areas to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets. Address the new drone threats in these regions and the continued threat to Dnipropetrovsk. Given the massive number of drones used in the recent attacks, invest heavily in counter-drone technologies and air defense systems.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Kharkiv and regions targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks. Given the new reports of continued drone attacks, enhance air defenses in these regions and investigate the possibility of deploying additional counter-drone measures. Given the reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the northeast axis and the use of guided aerial bombs on Sumy Oblast, deploy additional air defense systems and fighter jets to counter this threat. Monitor airspace closely and be prepared to intercept any hostile aircraft. The successful downing of a drone over Lake Ladoga highlights the need for air defense coverage even in areas far from the front lines.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid and explore alternative funding sources. Analyze Trump's statements regarding potential visits to Saudi Arabia and the UK, and his upcoming conversation with the British Prime Minister, for potential impacts on international support.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Analyze the captured Ukrainian soldier's statements for potential propaganda value and counter them with accurate information about Ukrainian military training and conduct. Address the new accusations from the Chinese embassy regarding US biolabs and counter any potential disinformation campaigns related to this issue.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Chernihiv, Sumy, Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, Vinnytsia, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, and Mykolaiv Oblasts. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
10. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the 90-day aid freeze to Ukraine and the statement about the US potentially acquiring Greenland. Urgently engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support and explore alternative funding sources. Analyze the implications of the Saudi-Russian arms deal and assess its potential impact on the conflict.
11. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions. Analyze the footage of the Orlan-10 UAV operation to gain insights into Russian reconnaissance tactics and capabilities.
12. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones, 3D-printed mines, and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
13. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare. The new video evidence of coordinated drone strikes highlights the effectiveness of these tactics and the need to maintain a technological edge.
14. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield, including training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry. This includes training on detecting and neutralizing mines made with 3D printers.
15. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
16. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
17. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
18. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
19. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
20. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
21. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict. Analyze the four potential scenarios outlined by The Times military correspondent and develop strategies for each.
22. Respond to the Situation in Kharkiv: Investigate the cause of the explosion in Kharkiv and assess the extent of the damage. Deploy emergency response teams and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter potential future attacks. The new reports of drone attacks in the Kharkiv region underscore the need for heightened vigilance and improved air defenses.
23. Counter Russian Advances near Belohorivka: Deploy additional troops and anti-tank weapons to counter Russian advances near Belohorivka. Utilize the intelligence gathered from the video evidence to target and neutralize Russian forces.
24. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report indicating potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions and hiding vehicles ineffectively, should be exploited. Launch counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
25. Analyze the new six-legged robot: Though currently being tested for civilian use, the development of a six-legged robot capable of carrying heavy loads and operating in extreme cold should be closely monitored for potential military applications. Its ability to traverse difficult terrain could make it useful for logistics or reconnaissance.
26. Develop Counter-Mine Measures: Given the discovery of mines made with 3D printers, invest in research and development of advanced mine detection technologies that can identify mines with minimal metal components. Train sappers on new techniques for detecting and neutralizing these types of mines.
27. Assess Impact of EW Deployment: Monitor the impact of the newly deployed electronic warfare equipment on the northeastern front. Gather intelligence on its effectiveness in disrupting Ukrainian operations and protecting Russian troops.
28. Analyze Video of Orlan-10 UAV Operation: Study the footage of the Orlan-10 UAV operation released by the Russian Ministry of Defense. Analyze the tactics, techniques, and procedures used by the Russian forces to gain insights into their reconnaissance and targeting capabilities.
29. Monitor the Situation in Sumy Oblast: Given the report of Russian guided aerial bombs being launched on Sumy Oblast, enhance air defense measures in the region and monitor the situation closely. Provide early warning to civilians and deploy rapid response units to intercept any incoming threats. Respond to the new drone attack on Sumy, providing assistance to affected civilians and assessing the damage to the educational facility, apartment building, and administrative buildings.
30. Respond to the New Attack on Ryazan: Investigate the reports of a new Ukrainian drone attack on Ryazan, particularly the potential targeting of an oil refinery. Assess the damage and deploy emergency response teams if necessary. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter future attacks.
31. Analyze Video of Tank Destruction in Kursk Region: Study the video evidence of a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian tank in the Kursk region. Analyze the tactics used and gather intelligence on the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones against Ukrainian armor.
32. Monitor and Respond to Drone Shootdowns: Continuously monitor reports of Ukrainian drones being shot down over Russian territory. Analyze the locations and frequency of these incidents to assess the effectiveness of Russian air defenses and identify potential vulnerabilities. The destruction of a drone over Lake Ladoga is a significant development that requires further investigation.
33. Assess the Naval Situation: Given the reported presence of Russian warships and Kalibr missile carriers in the Black Sea and Mediterranean Sea, enhance naval surveillance and intelligence gathering to monitor their movements and intentions. Develop contingency plans for potential missile strikes and coordinate with international partners to address the threat. Given the new reports of Russian forces destroying two Ukrainian naval drones approaching Crimea and the main bunch of Ukrainian naval drones waiting for Russian helicopters, enhance naval surveillance and intelligence gathering in the Black Sea. Develop contingency plans for potential naval drone attacks and coordinate with international partners to address the threat.
34. Analyze the Lifting of Airport Restrictions: Now that the restrictions at Izhevsk and Kazan airports have been lifted, assess any potential security implications and ensure that appropriate security measures are in place to prevent future disruptions.
35. Address the Capture of the Ukrainian Soldier: Utilize the information provided by the captured Ukrainian soldier to gain insights into Ukrainian military training, morale, and potential weaknesses. Counter any negative propaganda arising from his statements with accurate information and address any internal issues within the Ukrainian military that his statements may highlight.
36. Analyze the statements from the captured soldier: The captured soldier's comments on the execution of civilians and his training by the US 1st Cavalry Division should be carefully analyzed. If confirmed, the information about executions could be used to expose human rights abuses by Ukrainian forces. The details of his training could provide valuable intelligence on US involvement and the effectiveness of their training methods.
37. Monitor the Situation in Belarus: Given the presidential elections in Belarus and Lithuania's heightened border security, monitor the situation for any potential instability or spillover effects that could impact the conflict in Ukraine.
38. Respond to Attacks in Nikopol Region: Address the reported attacks in the Nikopol region, particularly the use of heavy artillery by Russian forces. Provide support to the affected communities and strengthen defenses in the area.
39. Analyze the Situation in Kryvyi Rih: Given the controlled situation in Kryvyi Rih, maintain vigilance and ensure that all essential services are functioning properly. Continue to monitor for potential threats and adjust security measures as needed.
40. Counter Russian Information Operations: Address and counter any disinformation or propaganda spread by Russian sources, particularly regarding the situation in Ryazan and the alleged attacks on oil refineries. Provide accurate and timely information to the public and international community.
41. Address Forced Mobilization Reports: Investigate the video showing the forced mobilization of a Ukrainian man. Address any issues related to recruitment practices and public perception of the war effort. Implement measures to ensure voluntary enlistment and maintain public support.
42. Counter the Narrative on US Biolabs: Respond to the Chinese embassy's call for the US to disclose information on its biolabs. Provide a clear and transparent explanation of any US-funded biological research activities, emphasizing their peaceful and scientific nature. Counter any disinformation campaigns that attempt to link these activities to the conflict or the COVID-19 pandemic.
43. Investigate Arson Attacks in Krasnodar: While seemingly unrelated to the military situation in Ukraine, the arson attacks in Krasnodar should be investigated to determine the perpetrator's motives and any potential links to the conflict. Assess the potential for similar incidents and take measures to prevent them.
44. Analyze the "Rybare" Report: Carefully analyze the information provided in the "Rybare" report, considering its potential biases as a pro-Russian source. Cross-reference the information with other sources to gain a more comprehensive understanding of the situation. Pay particular attention to the assessment of the geopolitical landscape, the analysis of the fighting in various regions, and the potential for escalation.
45. Assess the Impact of the Saudi-Russian Arms Deal: Analyze the implications of Saudi Arabia's purchase of Russian arms, particularly the "Pantsir-S1M" air defense systems. Consider the potential impact on the regional balance of power, the effectiveness of sanctions against Russia, and the broader geopolitical implications.
46. Analyze the Russian Sniper Video: Study the video of the Russian sniper operation near Pokrovsk. Analyze the tactics, techniques, and procedures used by the sniper team. Assess the effectiveness of the "Bespoke Gun Raptor" rifle and the use of thermal imaging. This information can be used to develop counter-sniper tactics and improve the training of Ukrainian forces.
47. Monitor the Situation in the Kursk Region: Given the ongoing operation in the Kursk region, maintain close surveillance and gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions. The new video evidence of a Russian reconnaissance drone detecting and targeting a Ukrainian group in the Kursk border area highlights the need for enhanced vigilance and counter-reconnaissance measures in this region.
48. Analyze the Ukrainian General Staff Report: Carefully study the Ukrainian General Staff report, paying particular attention to the reported number of combat clashes, airstrikes, shelling incidents, and drone attacks. Cross-reference this information with other sources to gain a more accurate understanding of the intensity and nature of the fighting.
49. Utilize the 46th Airmobile Brigade Video: Analyze the footage from the 46th Airmobile Brigade to gain insights into Ukrainian tactics, particularly the use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. This information can be used to improve training and operational planning.
50. Respond to the Attacks in Zaporizhzhia Oblast: Address the reported attacks on 13 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast. Provide support to the affected communities, assess the damage to infrastructure, and strengthen defenses in the area.
51. Analyze the Video of the Artillery Attack near Sukhi Yaly River: Study the video evidence of Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian forces near the Sukhi Yaly River. Analyze the tactics used and gather intelligence on the effectiveness of Russian artillery in this area. Use this information to develop counter-battery tactics and improve the defense of Ukrainian positions.
52. Assess the Reported Attack on Cherkasy Airfield: Investigate the reported Russian attack on the military airfield in Cherkasy. Gather intelligence on the extent of the damage to hangars, airfield infrastructure, and aircraft. Assess the impact on Ukrainian air capabilities and develop plans for repairs and replacements.
53. Confirm and Respond to the Fall of Vremivka and Velyka Novosilka: Verify the reports that Russian forces have occupied Vremivka and captured most of Velyka Novosilka. Assess the impact on Ukrainian defenses in the region and develop plans to counter further Russian advances. Deploy reinforcements to