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Historical Intelligence

Situation Report

Archived operational intelligence briefing

Report Time
2025-01-28 01:39:39Z
5 months ago
Previous (2025-01-28 01:09:46Z)

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 28, 2025, 01:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are achieving substantial progress, especially in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control. The situation in Pokrovsk remains highly precarious, with Russian forces within 10 kilometers. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearly collapsed, however, Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken some positions near Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions, including new alerts for Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kirovohrad, Cherkasy, Boryspil, and Vasylkiv areas. The presence of enemy UAVs is confirmed in the vicinity of Mykolaiv, with one drone approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction. Updated data confirms one drone circling near Nova Odesa, one moving from Kryvyi Rih district into Kirovohrad Oblast, one moving from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Voznesensk district, two in the Cherkasy area, one heading towards or through Boryspil, one heading towards or through Vasylkiv, and one moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Fastiv. Drone activity is also reported near Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, and Chernihiv. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region. Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

  • Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. A captured Ukrainian soldier from the area reported being abandoned by his comrades due to his health issues.
  • Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing. Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk.
  • Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area.
  • Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
  • Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. However, a new report from the Ukrainian ISW indicates that Ukrainian forces have retaken some positions near Toretsk. Russian forces are also reported to be advancing near Toretsk.
  • Other Locations:
    • Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities.
    • Zverevo: Fighting continues.
    • Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
    • Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
    • Dachne: Russian forces have advanced near Dachne.
    • Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne.
    • Andriivka: Russian forces are clearing the settlement after a breakthrough.
    • Nadezhdenka: Reports indicate no enemy presence, but some roaming groups are still active.
    • Seversk: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.

Luhansk Region

  • Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka.
  • Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

Kursk Region

  • The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements.
  • Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
  • Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared.
  • In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
  • Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south.
  • Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

  • Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region.
  • Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
  • Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
  • Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.

Other Regions

  • Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea.
    • Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv city is under threat from enemy UAVs. One drone is approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction. One drone is circling near Nova Odesa.
    • Vinnytsia: The Vinnytsia oblast is under threat from enemy UAVs approaching from Cherkasy and Kyiv oblasts. Two drones are reported to be moving from Cherkasy to Vinnytsia oblast.
    • Zhytomyr: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Zhytomyr. They have reportedly changed course towards Fastiv/Irpin. One drone is moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Fastiv.
    • Kropyvnytskyi: Three drones are reported to be heading towards or through Kropyvnytskyi. One drone is moving from Kryvyi Rih district into Kirovohrad Oblast. One drone is moving from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Voznesensk district.
    • Vasylkiv: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Vasylkiv. They are now reportedly flying towards Kyiv from Vasylkiv. One drone is heading towards or through Vasylkiv.
    • Cherkasy: Four drones are reported to be north of Cherkasy, heading west. Two drones are in the Cherkasy area.
    • Pryluky: Two drones are reported to be south of Pryluky, heading west.
    • Chernihiv: Two drones are reported to be in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
    • Chuhuiv: One drone is reported to be south of Chuhuiv.
    • Nikopol: One drone is reported to be north of Nikopol.
    • Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city. One drone is heading towards or through Boryspil.
    • Cherkasy: Two drones are circling near Cherkasy.
    • Kirovohrad: One drone is circling north of Kropyvnytskyi.
    • Dnipropetrovsk: One drone is near Kryvyi Rih.
    • Poltava: One drone is north of Poltava.
    • Sumy: One drone is circling near Sumy.
    • Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region.
    • Bila Tserkva: Two drones are heading towards or through Bila Tserkva.
    • Uman: Two drones are east of Uman.
    • Smila: One drone is west of Smila.
  • Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol.
  • Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight.
  • Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region.
  • Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan.
  • Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.

Geopolitical Developments

  • The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
  • The Nasdaq index fell by 3%.
  • US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.
  • Trump also stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
  • Google will rename the Gulf of Mexico to the American Gulf.
  • Donald Trump stated that DeepSeek's success should serve as a signal to US companies, emphasizing the need for Washington to focus on competition.
  • Abkhazia: A video message shows a veteran condemning the head of the Council of Elders, Apollon Shinkuba, for calling for violence against those who do not support the presidential candidate Adgur Ardzinba. This indicates a significant internal political conflict in Abkhazia, with potential for armed violence.

Other

  • Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region.
  • In the Gaza Strip, obstacles surrounding an agreement related to an Israeli prisoner named Arbil Yehuda have reportedly been resolved.
  • The incidence of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) in Russia has increased by 12.9% in a week.
  • "Al-Hilal" announced the termination of its contract with Neymar.
  • The Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has proposed creating special tourist trains and railway routes in Russia.

Updated Situation

The military situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is confirmed, and the situation in Pokrovsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, although there are reports of Ukrainian forces retaking some positions in the area. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread attacks across multiple regions. New reports of drone activity near Mykolaiv, Vinnytsia, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, Chernihiv, and Kyiv indicate an intensification of the conflict. The updated information on drone movements confirms the continued and widespread threat across multiple regions of Ukraine. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the US taking protectionist economic measures and renaming the Gulf of Mexico. The internal political conflict in Abkhazia adds another layer of complexity to the regional situation.

Analysis of New Messages

Nikolaevskiy Vanyok:

This message provides updated information on drone movements:

  • One drone is circling near Nova Odesa.
  • One drone is moving from Kryvyi Rih district into Kirovohrad Oblast.
  • One drone is moving from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Voznesensk district.
  • Two drones are in the Cherkasy area.
  • One drone is heading towards or through Boryspil.
  • One drone is heading towards or through Vasylkiv.
  • One drone is moving from Zhytomyr Oblast towards Fastiv.

This indicates continued drone activity across multiple regions, with potential threats to Nova Odesa, Kirovohrad Oblast, Voznesensk district, Cherkasy, Boryspil, Vasylkiv, and Fastiv.

Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны:

This message reports on an internal conflict in Abkhazia, where a veteran condemned the head of the Council of Elders, Apollon Shinkuba, for calling for violence against those who do not support the presidential candidate Adgur Ardzinba. This indicates a significant political division and potential for armed violence within Abkhazia. The video analysis provides further context, highlighting the speaker's status as a war veteran and the potential for the message to reflect broader public sentiment.

TASS:

This message reports that the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation has proposed creating special tourist trains and railway routes in Russia. This suggests an effort to boost domestic tourism and potentially utilize existing railway infrastructure.

These new messages do not directly change the military situation on the ground in Ukraine but provide important context regarding the ongoing drone threat and the internal political situation in Abkhazia. The analysis of the video message from Abkhazia suggests potential for unrest and highlights the socio-economic implications of military conflicts. The TASS message regarding tourist trains in Russia indicates a focus on domestic issues and potentially a shift in resource allocation.

Previous (2025-01-28 01:09:46Z)