Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 28, 2025, 01:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are achieving substantial progress, especially in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control. The situation in Pokrovsk remains highly precarious, with Russian forces within 10 kilometers. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearly collapsed, however, Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken some positions near Toretsk. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions, including new alerts for Mykolaiv and Vinnitsa oblasts and the Kyiv area. The presence of enemy UAVs is confirmed in the vicinity of Mykolaiv, with one drone approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction and new reports indicating drones near Kyiv flying from Vasylkiv. Drone activity is also reported near Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, and Chernihiv. Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region. Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control. A captured Ukrainian soldier from the area reported being abandoned by his comrades due to his health issues.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing. Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. However, a new report from the Ukrainian ISW indicates that Ukrainian forces have retaken some positions near Toretsk. Russian forces are also reported to be advancing near Toretsk.
• Other Locations:
  • Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities.
  • Zverevo: Fighting continues.
  • Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
  • Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Dachne: Russian forces have advanced near Dachne.
  • Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne.
  • Andriivka: Russian forces are clearing the settlement after a breakthrough.
  • Nadezhdenka: Reports indicate no enemy presence, but some roaming groups are still active.
  • Seversk: Russian forces report the destruction of a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
• Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared.
• In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
• Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• Reports indicate that Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
• Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea.
  • Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv city is under threat from enemy UAVs. One drone is approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction.
  • Vinnitsa: The Vinnitsa oblast is under threat from enemy UAVs approaching from Cherkasy and Kyiv oblasts. Two drones are reported to be moving from Cherkasy to Vinnitsa oblast.
  • Zhytomyr: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Zhytomyr. They have reportedly changed course towards Fastiv/Irpin.
  • Kropyvnytskyi: Three drones are reported to be heading towards or through Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Vasylkiv: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Vasylkiv. They are now reportedly flying towards Kyiv from Vasylkiv.
  • Cherkasy: Four drones are reported to be north of Cherkasy, heading west.
  • Pryluky: Two drones are reported to be south of Pryluky, heading west.
  • Chernihiv: Two drones are reported to be in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
  • Chuhuiv: One drone is reported to be south of Chuhuiv.
  • Nikopol: One drone is reported to be north of Nikopol.
  • Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city.
  • Cherkasy: Two drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • Kirovohrad: One drone is circling north of Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: One drone is near Kryvyi Rih.
  • Poltava: One drone is north of Poltava.
  • Sumy: One drone is circling near Sumy.
  • Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region.
  • Bila Tserkva: Two drones are heading towards or through Bila Tserkva.
  • Uman: Two drones are east of Uman.
  • Smila: One drone is west of Smila.
• Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol.
• Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.
• Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight.
• Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region.
• Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan.
• Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.

Geopolitical Developments

• The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
• The Nasdaq index fell by 3%.
• US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.
• Trump also stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
• Google will rename the Gulf of Mexico to the American Gulf.
• Donald Trump stated that DeepSeek's success should serve as a signal to US companies, emphasizing the need for Washington to focus on competition.

Other

• Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region.
• In the Gaza Strip, obstacles surrounding an agreement related to an Israeli prisoner named Arbil Yehuda have reportedly been resolved.
• The incidence of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) in Russia has increased by 12.9% in a week.
• "Al-Hilal" announced the termination of its contract with Neymar.

Updated Situation

The military situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is confirmed, and the situation in Pokrovsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse, although there are reports of Ukrainian forces retaking some positions in the area. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread attacks across multiple regions. New reports of drone activity near Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, Chernihiv, and Kyiv indicate an intensification of the conflict. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the US taking protectionist economic measures and renaming the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysis of New Messages

Nikolaevskiy Vanyok:

This message reports that two drones are flying from Vasylkiv towards Kyiv and two drones from Zhytomyr Oblast have changed course towards Fastiv/Irpin. This indicates a potential threat to the capital, Kyiv, and surrounding areas. The phrase "может быть пиу пиу пиу" suggests the possibility of air defense systems being activated.

TASS:

This message reports that Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region. This suggests potential supply issues or a deliberate tactic to conserve resources.

TASS:

The video message from TASS reports that Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian UAV control point and ammunition depot near Seversk. This indicates a successful Russian strike against Ukrainian military infrastructure, potentially degrading their drone capabilities in the area.

Colonelcassad:

The video message from Colonelcassad features a captured Ukrainian soldier, Oleg Tsaryuk, who claims he was abandoned by his comrades while leaving Velyka Novosilka due to his health problems. This suggests potential morale and discipline issues within Ukrainian units.

РБК-Україна:

The message from РБК-Україна reports that Ukrainian forces have retaken positions near Toretsk, while Russian forces have advanced near Toretsk, Chasiv Yar, and Kurakhove. This confirms the ISW report and indicates ongoing fighting in these areas. The accompanying maps provide a visual representation of the current situation on the ground, highlighting areas of Russian and Ukrainian control, as well as areas of active fighting.

• Kursk Direction Map: Shows significant fighting in several locations along the border, with both Russian and Ukrainian advances. The presence of Russian field fortifications suggests a prepared defense. The location of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant adds a layer of strategic complexity.
• Kharkiv Direction Map: Highlights Russian advances and claimed control over Ukrainian territory near the border. Claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives and reported partisan activity indicate resistance. The city of Vovchansk appears to be a focal point of conflict.
• Kherson Direction Map: Depicts claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives against Russian-controlled territory. The area around Beryslav and Nova Kakhovka is identified as a zone of significant fighting. The presence of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and reported Ukrainian partisan warfare add to the complexity of the situation.
• Bakhmut Direction Map: The city of Bakhmut, which was previously a major point of conflict, is still shown to be under Russian control, with areas of claimed control surrounding it. The map also shows areas of claimed Russian control south of Bakhmut. The map depicts small areas of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives east of Bakhmut and a larger one west of Bakhmut. The map shows small areas of assessed Russian advances in Ukraine near Chasiv Yar.
• Avdiivka-Donetsk City Direction Map: The city of Donetsk is shown to be under Russian control, with a large area of assessed Russian-controlled territory surrounding it. The map also shows smaller areas of claimed Russian control to the northwest and southwest of Donetsk. The map depicts assessed Russian advances in Ukraine west of Avdiivka. The map shows a small area of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives west of Donetsk city. The map also shows an area of significant fighting in the past 24 hours near Pervomais'ke.
• Robotyne-Verbove Direction Map: The map shows a large area of assessed Russian-controlled territory in the Zaporizhzhia Oblast, with a smaller area of claimed Russian control to the northwest. The map depicts claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives to the west and north of Robotyne. The map also shows areas of significant fighting in the past 24 hours near Robotyne and Verbove.
• Krynky Direction Map: The map shows a large area of assessed Russian-controlled territory on the east bank of the Dnipro River, with a smaller area of claimed Russian control on the west bank. The map depicts a significant area of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives on the east bank of the Dnipro River, near Krynky. The map also shows areas of significant fighting in the past 24 hours near Krynky and Pishchanivka.
• Southwest Donetsk Direction Map: The map shows a large area of assessed Russian-controlled territory in the southwestern part of Donetsk Oblast, with a smaller area of claimed Russian control to the west. The map depicts a small area of claimed Ukrainian counteroffensives to the north of Volodymyrivka. The map also shows areas of significant fighting in the past 24 hours near Novomykhailivka and Volodymyrivka.

These maps provide valuable insights into the current state of the conflict and will be instrumental in shaping future strategic decisions.