Situation Report

Operational Report: Military Situation in Ukraine - January 28th, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Executive Summary

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are achieving substantial progress, especially in the Donetsk region. Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control. The situation in Pokrovsk remains highly precarious, with Russian forces within 10 kilometers. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearly collapsed. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled. Drone warfare continues to intensify, with multiple drone attacks reported across various regions, including new alerts for Mykolaiv and Vinnitsa oblasts. Reports indicate enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of Mykolaiv, with one drone approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction. Drone activity is also reported near Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, and Chernihiv.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed under complete Russian control.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing. Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and about half of the city's urban area.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control.
• Other Locations:
  • Kramatorsk: The Ukrainian General Staff reports an increase in Russian assault activities.
  • Zverevo: Fighting continues.
  • Solone: Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
  • Uspenivka: Russian forces are engaged in battles, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
  • Dachne: Russian forces have advanced near Dachne.
  • Kotlyne: Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne.
  • Andriivka: Russian forces are clearing the settlement after a breakthrough.
  • Nadezhdenka: Reports indicate no enemy presence, but some roaming groups are still active.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled. Russian forces report the capture of several settlements.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
• Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared.
• In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
• Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the Kursk region in the past 24 hours.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: Drone attacks continue in the region.
• Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorichna.
• Kupiansk: Under renewed heavy shelling. Russian forces report that they are beginning to storm Kupyansk.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements: Drone security is reported in multiple Russian regions and occupied Crimea.
  • Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv city is under threat from enemy UAVs. One drone is approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction.
  • Vinnitsa: The Vinnitsa oblast is under threat from enemy UAVs approaching from Cherkasy and Kyiv oblasts. Two drones are reported to be moving from Cherkasy to Vinnitsa oblast.
  • Zhytomyr: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Zhytomyr.
  • Kropyvnytskyi: Three drones are reported to be heading towards or through Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Vasylkiv: Two drones are reported to be heading towards or through Vasylkiv.
  • Cherkasy: Four drones are reported to be north of Cherkasy, heading west.
  • Pryluky: Two drones are reported to be south of Pryluky, heading west.
  • Chernihiv: Two drones are reported to be in the east of Chernihiv Oblast, heading west.
  • Chuhuiv: One drone is reported to be south of Chuhuiv.
  • Nikopol: One drone is reported to be north of Nikopol.
  • Kyiv: Enemy UAVs are in the vicinity of the city.
  • Cherkasy: Two drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • Kirovohrad: One drone is circling north of Kropyvnytskyi.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: One drone is near Kryvyi Rih.
  • Poltava: One drone is north of Poltava.
  • Sumy: One drone is circling near Sumy.
  • Mozyr (Belarus): A Shahed drone was reportedly shot down in the Mozyr region.
  • Bila Tserkva: Two drones are heading towards or through Bila Tserkva.
  • Uman: Two drones are east of Uman.
  • Smila: One drone is west of Smila.
• Sevastopol: An air raid alert was reported in Sevastopol.
• Kherson: A civilian was killed by a drone attack between Veletenske and Rozlyv.
• Dnipropetrovsk: Ukrainian air defenses shot down 13 drones in the region overnight.
• Sumy: Infrastructure facilities were damaged in Sumy and the surrounding region.
• Ryazan: There are reports of a new attack on the oil refinery near Ryazan.
• Donetsk: Air defense systems are active, with reports of at least ten explosions.

Geopolitical Developments

• The US Senate confirmed Scott Bessent as the new Treasury Secretary.
• The Nasdaq index fell by 3%.
• US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.
• Trump also stated his intention to reopen oil production in protected areas of Alaska.
• Google will rename the Gulf of Mexico to the American Gulf.

Other

• Ukrainian forces are using F-1 hand grenades filled with cornmeal instead of explosives in the Kursk region.
• In the Gaza Strip, obstacles surrounding an agreement related to an Israeli prisoner named Arbil Yehuda have reportedly been resolved.
• The incidence of acute respiratory viral infections (ARVI) in Russia has increased by 12.9% in a week.
• "Al-Hilal" announced the termination of its contract with Neymar.

Updated Situation

The military situation continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces, with Russian troops making significant advances in the Donetsk region. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is confirmed, and the situation in Pokrovsk is increasingly precarious. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are nearing collapse. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region remains stalled. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with widespread attacks across multiple regions. New reports of drone activity near Mykolaiv, Vinnitsa, Zhytomyr, Kropyvnytskyi, Vasylkiv, Cherkasy, Pryluky, and Chernihiv indicate an intensification of the conflict. The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the US taking protectionist economic measures and renaming the Gulf of Mexico.

Analysis of new messages

РБК-Україна:

The image shared by РБК-Україна provides a visual representation of the air raid alert status across Ukraine. The extensive red areas across the eastern, southern, and central regions highlight the widespread threat of air attacks, particularly from drones, as indicated by previous reports. The new message confirms that the air raid alert is still active in multiple regions. The small dark purple region in the northeast likely represents an area of particular concern.

Повітряні Сили ЗС України / Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

This update confirms the presence of enemy UAVs in the vicinity of Mykolaiv, posing an immediate threat to the city. This aligns with previous reports of increased drone activity in the region. The message emphasizes the need for civilians to take shelter.

Николаевский Ванёк:

This message provides specific locations of drones, indicating that one drone is approaching Balovne in a northwesterly direction, one is south of Chuhuiv, two are heading towards Zhytomyr, two are moving from Cherkasy to Vinnitsa oblast, one is north of Nikopol, three are heading towards Kropyvnytskyi, two are heading towards Vasylkiv, four are north of Cherkasy, two are south of Pryluky, and two are in the east of Chernihiv Oblast. This confirms the widespread nature of the drone threat across multiple regions.