Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 16:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region continues to be the focal point of intense fighting, with significant developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is a major strategic and symbolic victory for Russian forces, who have now captured most of the city and raised their flag on a building in the central part. Intense fighting continues around Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove, with Russian troops advancing and consolidating their positions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory, inflicting heavy losses, and neutralizing Ukrainian units. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including the downing of 57 out of 104 enemy UAVs by the Ukrainian Air Force. Ukrainian forces are actively targeting Russian military assets and infrastructure, while Russian forces continue to utilize drones for reconnaissance and targeted strikes. Reports indicate ongoing drone attacks across several regions of Ukraine, including Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Vinnytsia, Khmelnytskyi, Ivano-Frankivsk, Mykolaiv, and Cherkasy, with explosions reported in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:
  • Russian forces have completed the encirclement, signifying a major symbolic victory. The capture of the city is nearing completion, marking a significant strategic loss for Ukraine.
  • Ukrainian troops are blocked to the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blahodatne.
  • Russian forces control over 90% of Velyka Novosilka east of the Kashlahach River.
  • Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
  • A video found on a Ukrainian soldier's phone during the clearing of Velyka Novosilka shows Ukrainian soldiers expressing their awareness of their dire situation, acknowledging they will not return alive. One soldier mentions he was able to escape from Avdiivka but not this time.
  • Russian forces, specifically the 5th Separate Guards Tank Brigade, have reportedly raised another flag on a high-rise building in the central part of Velyka Novosilka.
• Pokrovsk:
  • Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
  • The most intense fighting is near Yelyzavetivka and Vodyane Druhe, with ongoing battles.
  • Near Baranivka, Russian assault groups are attacking enemy positions towards Tarasivka.
  • Fighting also continues near Zelene Pole and Kalynove.
  • Russian forces are reportedly advancing in the Pokrovsk direction, with fighting intensifying near Udachne.
• Chasiv Yar:
  • Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
  • They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Sievernyi district.
  • Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant have been completely cleared.
  • Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive.
  • Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators from the "Raroh" battalion of the 24th Mechanized Brigade targeting Russian positions near Chasiv Yar, causing buildings to collapse.
• Kurakhove:
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
  • Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
• Toretsk:
  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat.
• Kramatorsk:
  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
• Zverevo:
  • The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.
• Solone:
  • Reportedly liberated by Russian forces.
• Uspenivka:
  • Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Dachnoe:
  • A video shows the successful use of an FPV drone by the 238th Artillery Brigade against a group of Ukrainian forces in Dachnoe, in support of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division's offensive in the Kurakhove direction.
• Udachne:
  • Russian forces are engaged in intense fighting for control of Udachne.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka, taking control of a forest area between the settlements and continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.
• In the direction of Hrekivka Russian forces are developing an offensive from Makiivka, with an advance of 400m.
• Russian forces are forming an "operational cauldron" around Ukrainian forces near Novoyehorivka.
• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolske, with Russian forces approaching Mala Loknia and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days.
• The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
• Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
• In the area of Sudzha, the enemy is transferring elite units of the Special Operations Forces from the Sumy region.
• Russian forces are bypassing Sudzha from the south, fighting is going on near Kurylivka.
• Reports indicate that over 360 Ukrainian troops were killed in the region in the past 24 hours, with five surrendering.
• Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region.
• South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed in the region.
• A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled.
• Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region.
• According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot.
• In total, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle).
• Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
• Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops near Tetkino in the Kursk region.
• FPV drones and artillery were used to neutralize the Ukrainian forces.
• Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region.
• The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment.
• New video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.
• According to the ministry, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities have reached 54,460 people. Up to 320 tanks were destroyed.
• In the past day alone, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 190 militants, 3 tanks, 3 armored personnel carriers, 5 armored vehicles, an M777 howitzer, 2 mortars, an electronic warfare station, 6 UAV control points and a warehouse of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
• Operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
• In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:
  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
  • One drone is flying from the Kharkiv region towards Dnipropetrovsk and Poltava regions.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
  • Explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
• Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions.

Other Regions

• Drone Activity:
  • Air raid alerts are active across almost all of Ukraine.
  • Updated data from the Air Force on the movement of "Shaheds": enemy UAVs are recorded over Kyiv, course - south, drones were seen in the central part of Chernihiv region, course - south-west, "Shaheds" are in Sumy region, course - south-west, on the border of Poltava and Dnipropetrovsk regions, course - west, over the Kremenchug reservoir, course - south, in the central part of Kharkiv region, course - west, in the northern and eastern parts of Mykolaiv region, course - west, on the border of Mykolaiv and Odessa regions, course - north-west.
  • Ukrainian air defenses shot down 14 enemy drones in the Sumy region.
  • All 4 enemy drones were shot down in the Lviv region.
  • Cherkasy: The city is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast.
  • New groups of enemy drones have been reported in the northeast of Chernihiv region, with a southern course.
  • Dnipropetrovsk: The city of Dnipro is under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the southeast. A second explosion was reported in Dnipro.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk: The region is under threat of an enemy drone attack from the northeast.
  • One drone from the Ternopil region is heading towards Ivano-Frankivsk.
  • Two drones from the Khmelnytskyi region have moved into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • One drone from the Vinnytsia region is moving into the Khmelnytskyi region.
  • Four drones from the Kirovohrad region are heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • One drone is north of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • One drone is flying past Dolynska with a western course.
  • One drone is circling near Pavlohrad.
  • Three drones are in the Cherkasy area, with a southwestern course.
  • Three new drones are in the east of the Chernihiv region, with a southwestern course.
  • Tver Oblast (Russia): A drone was shot down, with no reported casualties.
  • 5 drones are flying over the Berislav district towards Bereznegovatoe.
  • 1 drone flew over Pokrov in a northerly direction.
  • 2 drones are flying over Pavlograd in a northerly direction.
  • 6 drones are in the Kremenchug region, heading northwest.
  • 2 drones are circling near Cherkasy.
  • 1 drone is moving from the Kharkiv region to the Dnepropetrovsk region, and 1 to the Poltava region.
  • 3 drones are moving from the Sumy region to the Poltava region.
  • Groups of drones are moving along the border of the Kherson and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the east of the Mykolaiv region, heading northwest.
  • Drones are in the north of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Kharkiv region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the south and center of the Poltava region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the west of the Poltava region, heading west.
  • Drones are in the north of the Sumy region, heading south.
  • Drones are in the east of the Cherkasy region, heading north.
  • Drones are on the border of the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, heading north.
  • Drones are in the northeast of the Dnipropetrovsk region, heading north.
  • Drones are in the Nikopol area, heading towards Kryvyi Rih.
  • Several groups of attack UAVs are moving through the Sumy region towards the Chernihiv region.
  • Drone security is reported in Moscow, Tambov, Tula, Rostov, Kursk, Bryansk, Lipetsk, Ryazan regions, and occupied Crimea.
• New Drone Movements:
  • Chernihiv and Sumy: Ukrainian Air Force reports enemy drones moving towards Chernihiv and Sumy from the northeast. New groups of drones are reported in Chernihiv and Sumy regions, with a southwesterly and northwesterly course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: One drone is flying between Ivano-Frankivsk and Kolomyia with a southwestern course. Another drone is heading towards or flying through Kolomyia.
  • Ternopil Oblast: Two drones have moved from Khmelnytskyi Oblast to the south of Ternopil Oblast.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: One drone is in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western course. Three more drones are moving from Kirovohrad Oblast into Vinnytsia Oblast.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Three drones are in Pervomaisk district, with a western course. One drone is south of Kropyvnytskyi, with a western course.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: One drone is circling east of Smila. Another drone is in the central part of Cherkasy Oblast, with a western course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Two drones are in the Nizhyn area, with a southern course. Two more drones are north of Chernihiv, with a western course. One drone is moving from Chernihiv Oblast into Kyiv Oblast. Another drone is east of Chernihiv, heading towards Nizhyn.
  • Kyiv Oblast: Drones are reported on the border of Cherkasy and Kyiv Oblasts, with a western course.
  • Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are reported in the south of Kirovohrad Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Vinnytsia Oblast: Drones are reported in the northeast and northwest of Vinnytsia Oblast, with a western/northwestern course.
  • Khmelnytskyi Oblast: Drones are reported in the west of Khmelnytskyi Oblast, with a western course.
  • Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Drones are reported in the center of Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast, with a western/southwestern course.
  • Mykolaiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the northwest of Mykolaiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are reported in the west and southwest of Chernihiv Oblast, with a southwestern course.
• Explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast: Media reports indicate that explosions were heard in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast during an ongoing drone attack.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks.
• Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.

Internal Russian Military Situation

• 51st Army: In the former army of the DNR, now part of the 51st Army of the Russian Armed Forces, there is a shortage of personnel on the front lines. Despite reports of successful operations, the number of troops available for assaults is insufficient.
• Sports Relays Order: There are reports of an order for sports relays among military personnel, despite the ongoing intense fighting. This has led to criticism and accusations of "idiocy" due to the disconnect from the realities on the ground. The order is seen as an example of the disconnect between the higher command and the situation on the front lines. Commanders are reportedly afraid to voice their concerns about the impracticality of such orders during active combat.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them. This video serves as propaganda for the Russian side, highlighting the demoralization and desperation of Ukrainian forces.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.

Political/Economic Situation

• Israeli Ambassador's Statement: The Israeli ambassador to Russia stated that "Israel will not forget the feat of the Russian people, and Israel will be represented at the May 9 parade in Moscow." This statement has drawn criticism from Ukrainians who were forced to flee their country due to the war.
• Moscow Stock Exchange: The Moscow Stock Exchange is resuming morning trading sessions on the stock and derivatives markets.
• Ukrainian Doctors Awarded: Ukrainian doctors from the BF Forpost Ukraine and the non-staff medical unit have been awarded the "For Assistance to Defense" award from the Ministry of Defense.
• Gold Futures: The price of gold futures reached a new historical high, surpassing $2,801.8 per troy ounce.
• Lukashenko's Re-election: Preliminary results indicate that Alexander Lukashenko has won the presidential elections in Belarus with 86.82% of the vote, according to the Central Election Commission of Belarus.
• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days. This likely includes military aid to Ukraine, Jordan, and Taiwan. Aid to Israel and Egypt will continue. The order was issued by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
• Ukrainian Military Re-evaluation Deadline Extended: The deadline for re-evaluation of Ukrainian citizens with limited military fitness will be extended. Over 1 million people have not yet been re-evaluated.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus. Russian equipment is being removed from the port. The new leader of Syria congratulated Trump on the start of his work as President of the United States.
• Zelensky's Statement on Drone Components: President Zelensky stated that the Shahed drones used in recent attacks on Brovary and Hlevakha were produced in Russia but rely on foreign components. He called for a complete cutoff of these supplies to stop Russian aggression.
• Russia-Immigration: Russia has tightened the rules for obtaining temporary residence permits and residency permits to combat fictitious marriages and paternity for the purpose of obtaining immigration status.
• Hamas Leader Killed: Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was reportedly killed in action in the Gaza Strip while fighting alongside his troops.
• The US State Department has announced a 90-day pause in providing any assistance to foreign states. This includes a review of existing aid programs, including those for Ukraine, but with a possible exemption clause.
• USAID representatives have been instructed to halt all projects related to Ukraine, including support for schools and healthcare.
• A correspondent for "Voice of America," citing Pentagon sources, reports that the State Department's decree does not apply to military aid for Ukraine.
• Donald Trump, in a telephone conversation with Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, insisted on acquiring Greenland, the Financial Times reported.
• The US State Department has suspended funding for Ukraine. A few days ago, Trump issued an order to suspend for 90 days all financial programs related to providing assistance to a foreign state until they are reviewed by the Secretary of State. But it was not clear from the document whether this applies to aid programs for Ukraine already adopted under President Biden. According to sources from the media holding Politico, last Friday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio issued a clarifying order stating that Trump's decree unequivocally applies to Ukraine. Funding for military assistance is suspended even for programs already approved by the US government. Exceptions are made only for Egypt and Israel in the form of necessary emergency assistance. Within 85 days, the US State Department must prepare a report, and after that, Secretary of State Mark Rubio will give recommendations to Trump on which programs should be finally stopped and which should not.
• The Minister of Health of Kamchatka was removed from office due to an outbreak of hepatitis in the oncology dispensary, the governor said.
• The US Department of the Interior, according to Trump's decree, renamed the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America.
• The Trump administration will consider using frozen Russian assets to finance the supply of American weapons to Ukraine, said Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg in an interview with Fox News.
• Europe's Fear of Exclusion from Peace Talks: European officials are concerned that the EU and Ukraine might be excluded from peace negotiations, with the US potentially brokering a deal unfavorable to Kyiv, leaving Europe to finance reconstruction.
• EU Sanctions on Russian Citizens: The EU has imposed sanctions on three Russian citizens allegedly responsible for cyberattacks against EU countries.
• Putin-Lula da Silva Phone Call: Russian President Putin and Brazilian President Lula da Silva discussed the Ukraine conflict and the global situation, including the new US administration. They also agreed to coordinate closely on BRICS activities.
• Poland to Invite Trump to Three Seas Summit: Poland plans to invite former US President Donald Trump to the Three Seas Initiative summit, a move that could have significant implications for US-European relations.
• Ukraine's Defense Industry Funding: The Ukrainian defense industry has secured over $1.5 billion in foreign partner funding in 2024, with contributions from nine countries and the European Union.
• Cryptocurrency Market Growth: The article highlights the growing interest in cryptocurrencies, with Ukraine ranking third globally in Bitcoin holdings. It also mentions Donald Trump's active stimulation of the cryptocurrency market in the US.
• Rising Inflation and Economic Difficulties in Russia: Despite reported economic growth, Russia is facing increasing inflation, rising prices, and labor shortages. Analysts predict worsening economic conditions in 2025, potentially forcing Russia to choose between continuing the war and maintaining social stability.

Information Warfare

• DeepState Analysis: The DeepState Telegram channel shared an image claiming to show Russian forces in the central part of Velyka Novosilka, contradicting official Ukrainian reports. They criticize the discrepancy between official statements and the reality on the ground, warning that "lies will destroy us all."
• "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram Channel: A user on the "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel warned about a suspicious account, potentially linked to either Russian authorities or the enemy, that may attempt to spread misinformation or gather sensitive information. The account has been active since December and is now escalating its activities.
• The "Philologist in Ambush" Telegram channel also shared screenshots of a user profile and a group chat, raising concerns about potential threats and information gathering activities. The user profile "Philologist in Ambush" suggests a person with expertise in language and a possible military mindset, while the group chat activity indicates coordination and information sharing.
• The reaction list shows recent activity, indicating active monitoring and engagement within the group. The large number of members and the timing of reactions suggest coordinated activities within a specific timeframe.
• The video's content, especially the soldier's frustrated tone and claims of being abandoned, can be exploited for propaganda by both sides. The Ukrainian side might use it to highlight command failures, while the Russian side might use it to demoralize Ukrainian troops and sow discord.
• Voenkor Kotenok Telegram Channel:
  • Continues to highlight criticisms of the Russian military's internal structure, specifically focusing on leadership issues, the treatment of veterans, and the inefficiencies of the military bureaucracy.
  • Shared a video of Ukrainian soldiers in Velyka Novosilka expressing despair and accusing their command of abandoning them. This video serves as propaganda for the Russian side, highlighting the demoralization and desperation of Ukrainian forces.
  • Discusses the importance of small-scale "garage" manufacturers in supplying the Russian military, contrasting their agility and innovation with the perceived shortcomings of larger state-controlled entities.
  • Raises concerns about the potential for social instability in Russia due to the marginalization of returning veterans and their exclusion from political life.
  • Criticizes the children of Russian elites receiving safe, rear-echelon positions in the military, further fueling the perception of injustice and inequality within the system.
  • Discusses the internal conflicts and power struggles within the Russian military and volunteer forces, revealing a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure.
• Automated Bot Activity: Evidence suggests the use of automated bots on Telegram channels to post contextually relevant but inappropriate comments, potentially for propaganda or disinformation purposes.
• Ukrainian and Russian Media Reports: Reports from both Ukrainian and Russian media outlets highlight the discrepancies between official statements and the actual situation on the ground, particularly regarding the control of Velyka Novosilka.
• Propaganda Videos: Videos showing the raising of the Russian flag in Velyka Novosilka and interviews with captured Ukrainian soldiers are being used for propaganda purposes by Russian sources.
• Disinformation on Social Media: The image of a burning Red Square and other misleading images are being used to spread disinformation and manipulate public perception.
• The new messages add further evidence of information warfare, with both sides using propaganda to shape the narrative and influence public opinion. The discrepancies between official statements and on-the-ground reports highlight the challenges of obtaining accurate information in a conflict zone. The use of social media and Telegram channels for spreading disinformation and propaganda is also evident.

Updated Assessment

The new information further reinforces the assessment of a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces. The fall of Velyka Novosilka is a significant strategic and symbolic victory for Russia. The confirmation of Russian troops in the central part of the city, along with the video from a Ukrainian soldier's phone, underscores the severity of the situation for Ukrainian forces. The ongoing battles near Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, and Kurakhove indicate a sustained Russian offensive, with Russian forces making significant advances and consolidating their positions.

In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive remains stalled, with Russian forces making gains and inflicting heavy casualties. The protests by refugees and reports of North Korean casualties add complexity to the situation. The new reports of North Korean soldiers killing Russian marines and fleeing, if true, could indicate significant issues with discipline and morale within the coalition forces.

Drone warfare remains a significant factor, with widespread activity across Ukraine and even into Russian territory. The new reports of drone movements and air defense engagements highlight the ongoing threat and the need for constant vigilance. The drone attack on Tver Oblast in Russia demonstrates the reach of Ukrainian drone capabilities. The updated information on drone movements indicates a continued and widespread threat across multiple regions of Ukraine, with new groups of drones reported in Chernihiv and Sumy regions. The reported explosions in Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast further confirm the ongoing drone attacks.

The internal situation within the Russian military, as highlighted by the reports from the 51st Army and the continued criticisms from Voenkor Kotenok, reveals challenges with manpower shortages, unrealistic orders, and a disconnect between the front lines and the command structure. This could impact morale and operational effectiveness. The information regarding internal conflicts, particularly within the volunteer forces and the DNR militia, suggests a fragmented and potentially unstable command structure, which could be exploited by Ukrainian forces.

The information warfare dimension remains active, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and exploit the situation for their own advantage. The discrepancies between official reports and on-the-ground accounts, as highlighted by the DeepState channel, underscore the importance of accurate and timely intelligence. The continued critical reporting by Voenkor Kotenok provides valuable insights into the internal challenges and potential weaknesses within the Russian military system. The use of automated bots to post inappropriate comments, as highlighted by Colonelcassad, adds another layer to the ongoing information warfare.

The political and economic developments, such as the Israeli ambassador's statement, the resumption of trading on the Moscow Stock Exchange, and the new record high for gold prices, provide context to the broader geopolitical landscape. Lukashenko's reported re-election in Belarus, while expected, further solidifies his position and may have implications for the ongoing conflict. The concerns raised by European officials about being excluded from peace negotiations highlight the complex dynamics at play and the potential for a US-brokered deal that may not be favorable to Ukraine.

The new information about the Ukrainian defense industry receiving substantial foreign funding is a positive development for Ukraine, potentially boosting its domestic arms production and reducing reliance on foreign aid. However, the reported suspension of US aid and the potential implications for Ukraine's military capabilities remain a significant concern.

Overall, the new information reinforces the assessment of a deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces, with Russian forces making significant advances and consolidating their positions. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future trajectory of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The ongoing drone warfare and the internal challenges within both militaries will also play a significant role in shaping the outcome. The new reports of drone activity in multiple regions of Ukraine and the continued criticisms of the Russian military by Voenkor Kotenok indicate an escalation in the conflict and a broadening of the combat zone. The use of automated bots to manipulate online discussions adds another dimension to the information warfare aspect of the conflict. The economic and political developments, including the concerns about US aid and potential peace negotiations, add further complexity to the overall situation.

Recommendations

1. Immediate Reinforcements: Prioritize the deployment of reinforcements, including anti-tank weapons, air defense systems, and manpower, to Velyka Novosilka to break the encirclement and prevent further Russian advances.
2. Secure Pokrovsk: Strengthen defenses in Pokrovsk by deploying additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter the Russian advance and prevent further encirclement.
3. Counter Drone Warfare: Given the increasing importance of drones, invest in counter-drone technology and training to neutralize Russian drone capabilities and protect Ukrainian troops and infrastructure. Develop and deploy advanced electronic warfare systems to jam or disable enemy drones.
4. Enhance Air Defense: Prioritize the acquisition and deployment of advanced air defense systems to counter Russian air superiority and protect critical infrastructure, such as the aviation repair facility in Hlevakha. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in **Sumy, Chernih