Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 27, 2025, 15:45 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces making significant advances across multiple fronts, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and consolidating their control. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions.

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Confirmed to be under complete Russian control. Video evidence shows the Russian 40th Separate Guards Brigade of the Naval Infantry operating within the settlement and raising their flag. Russian forces have fully encircled and captured the settlement, with Ukrainian forces retreating entirely.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city. Positional fighting continues, with Russian forces advancing towards Novohrodivka and expanding control along the railway line. Powerful strikes are reported on Pokrovsk.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. Fighting continues in the Severnyi district. Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway and have launched an offensive south of the railway station.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city remaining under their control. Battles are ongoing on the northern outskirts of the city, south of the "Fomikha" mine, for the "Toretska" mine, and the village of Krymske. Video evidence confirms Russian advances near Toretsk.
• Other Locations: Fighting continues in Zverevo, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces back. Solone is reportedly liberated by Russian forces. Russian forces are engaged in battles near Uspenivka, advancing towards Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.

Luhansk Region

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka. They have captured Zakhidne and Ivanivka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai. Russian forces are advancing on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Makiivka, Ivanivka, and Novosadove.
• Nadiivka: The capture of Nadiivka has allowed Russian forces to fortify their positions on the right bank of the Zherebets River, shorten the "pocket" located south of the settlement, and provided the opportunity for further offensive actions to the west.

Kursk Region

• The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and consolidating their control.
• Russian forces report the capture of several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Malaya Loknya.
• Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky.
• Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported.
• Ukrainian forces are reportedly increasing their presence in the Sudzha border area.
• Since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
• Over the past 24 hours, the AFU lost more than 210 troops, an infantry fighting vehicle, five armored fighting vehicles, six motor vehicles, an artillery gun, and a mortar.

Other Regions

• Drone Warfare: Extensive drone movements and attacks are reported across multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Sumy, Kyiv, and others. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone carrying a battery with a sticker from the Czech Republic's Air Reconnaissance unit, confirming Czech military support for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces report receiving 260 more drones, totaling 139,197 FPV drones. Ukrainian forces report destroying a rare Swedish Bgbv 90 armored recovery vehicle on the border of the Kursk and Sumy regions.
• Air Raid Alerts: Air raid alerts have been issued in Kyiv and six regions of Ukraine (Kyivska, Chernihivska, Poltavska, Sumska, Cherkaska, Kirovohradska), with the threat of ballistic missile attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the downing of 57 enemy UAVs out of 104.
• Sumy: The Ukrainian Air Force reports the launch of guided aerial bombs by tactical aircraft in the Sumy region.

Major Updates from the New Messages

• Casualties: In the Donetsk People's Republic, 6 civilians were killed and 38 were injured, including 2 children, due to the aggression of the Ukrainian Armed Forces between January 21 and 26, 2025.
• Drone Warfare:
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian equipment in the Kursk region with drones.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region. The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment.
  • Video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
  • An FPV drone pilot of the Sever Group of Forces destroyed a Baba Yaga heavy UAV of the AFU in Kursk region border area.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian tank with a Lancet loitering munition in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • A Russian drone operator targeted and destroyed a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • Ukrainian forces successfully employed a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
  • Russian forces are destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
  • Russian forces are destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
  • Russian forces are destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
  • Russian airborne forces are destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
  • Ussuri paratroopers are displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
  • A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
  • Russian troops are using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
  • A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
  • A successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeted a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops.
  • Operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
  • Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults.
  • A separate guards airborne assault brigade is using a fiber-optic drone called "Князь Вандал" to destroy enemy combat vehicles in the Kursk region.
  • Another American Abrams tank was destroyed in the Viktorivka area.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense showed footage of a burning tank, which was put out of action by a direct hit by a Lancet loitering munition.
  • A new video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows a separate guards airborne assault brigade using a fiber-optic drone called "Князь Вандал" to destroy enemy combat vehicles in the Kursk region.
  • According to the channel, the drone's fiber-optic technology makes it immune to enemy electronic warfare.
  • Another American Abrams tank was destroyed in the Viktorivka area of the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense showed footage of a burning tank, which was put out of action by a direct hit by a Lancet loitering munition.
  • According to the ministry, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities have reached 54,460 people. Up to 320 tanks were destroyed.
  • In the past day alone, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 190 militants, 3 tanks, 3 armored personnel carriers, 5 armored vehicles, an M777 howitzer, 2 mortars, an electronic warfare station, 6 UAV control points and a warehouse of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • An FPV drone pilot of the Sever Group of Forces destroyed a Baba Yaga heavy UAV of the AFU in Kursk region border area.
• Kursk Region:
  • Video details the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, with Russian forces advancing in Nikolaevo-Daryino, Makhnovka, and Russkoye Porechnoe.
  • According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, over the past 24 hours, Russian forces in the Kursk direction have neutralized over 180 Ukrainian troops, a US-made Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, four armored fighting vehicles, ten motor vehicles, a self-propelled artillery unit, two towed howitzers, a mortar, three electronic warfare stations, two UAV control points, and an ammunition depot.
  • In total, since the beginning of the conflict in the region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly lost over 55,000 troops, 319 tanks, 238 infantry fighting vehicles, 183 armored personnel carriers, 1,626 armored fighting vehicles, 1,639 motor vehicles, 392 artillery pieces, 44 MLRS launchers (including 13 HIMARS and 6 US-made MLRS), 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, 8 transport-loading vehicles, 103 electronic warfare stations, 14 counter-battery radars, 4 air defense radars, 32 engineering vehicles (including 13 obstacle-clearing vehicles, 1 UR-77 mine-clearing vehicle, 9 armored recovery vehicles, and 1 command post vehicle).
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian assault force during an attempted landing near Tetkino in the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attempt to land troops near Tetkino in the Kursk region. FPV drones and artillery were used to neutralize the Ukrainian forces.
  • Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade are reportedly using drones to destroy Russian equipment in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 154th Territorial Defense Brigade destroying Russian equipment in the Kursk region with drones.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces from the 1st Battalion of the 22nd Mechanized Brigade repelling a North Korean assault near Malaya Loknya in the Kursk region. The video shows the body of a North Korean lieutenant colonel, along with his weapons and equipment.
  • Video evidence shows residents of Makhnovka, in the Kursk region, discussing their experiences during fighting between Ukrainian forces and North Korean soldiers.
  • An FPV drone pilot of the Sever Group of Forces destroyed a Baba Yaga heavy UAV of the AFU in Kursk region border area.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian tank with a Lancet loitering munition in the Kursk region.
  • The Russian MoD officially confirms the liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
  • A new video from the "Дневник Десантника" Telegram channel shows a separate guards airborne assault brigade using a fiber-optic drone called "Князь Вандал" to destroy enemy combat vehicles in the Kursk region.
  • According to the channel, the drone's fiber-optic technology makes it immune to enemy electronic warfare.
  • Another American Abrams tank was destroyed in the Viktorivka area of the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense showed footage of a burning tank, which was put out of action by a direct hit by a Lancet loitering munition.
  • According to the ministry, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk direction since the beginning of hostilities have reached 54,460 people. Up to 320 tanks were destroyed.
  • In the past day alone, the Russian Armed Forces destroyed more than 190 militants, 3 tanks, 3 armored personnel carriers, 5 armored vehicles, an M777 howitzer, 2 mortars, an electronic warfare station, 6 UAV control points and a warehouse of ammunition of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
  • Operators of the Special Operations Forces destroyed 21 and wounded 40 North Korean soldiers who were advancing on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region of the Russian Federation.
  • In the Kursk region, Ukrainian forces repelled 7 Russian assaults.
  • Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP with an FPV drone in the Kursk border area.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
  • Video evidence shows Russian airborne forces destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer near Makhnovka.
  • New video evidence from Colonelcassad shows Ussuri paratroopers displaying captured trophies, including a US-made 7.62mm M240 machine gun, and the restoration of a captured Ukrainian BMP-2 in the border areas of the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces are using Ka-52M helicopters for airstrikes.
  • A Russian Mi-28NM helicopter destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the border area of the Kursk region, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
  • Ukrainian forces from the 73rd Naval Special Operations Center are conducting operations in the Kursk region, collecting data on Russian and North Korean troops.
  • Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
  • A new statement suggests that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their occupied portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
  • The acting governor of the Kursk region met with refugees from areas occupied by Ukrainian forces.
  • Russian forces, supported by artillery and FPV drones, destroyed a Ukrainian BMP-2 in the Kursk region.
  • Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region.
  • Battles are ongoing near Pohrebky, with the 34th Brigade continuing to destroy enemy equipment and personnel.
  • Nikolaevo-Daryino has been cleared, with the enemy making careless and unsuccessful counterattacks. Heavy fighting in the eastern part of the settlement, with the enemy using large strongholds. Russian Aerospace Forces are actively working in the area. The fog is hindering the use of drones, making it the time for assault groups to show their capabilities.
  • Overnight, Russian air defense systems reportedly intercepted 57 out of 104 attacking drones across multiple regions, including Voronezh, Belgorod, Kursk, Tver, and Orlov.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone with a sniper rifle in the Kursk region.
  • A Lancet loitering munition destroyed a tank of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Kursk border area.
• Luhansk Region:
  • On the junction of the Kupyansk-Svatove and Lyman directions, Russian forces continue to expand their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River near Nadiia.
  • At the beginning of January, the capture of the aforementioned village was announced by Russian MoD resources, but no video of Russian soldiers from Nadiia itself has yet been released.
  • Despite this, last week footage was published online showing drone fire correction on retreating Ukrainian units from a forest belt extending west of the village. In addition, information received from the ground also confirms the liberation of the settlement.
  • The capture of Nadiia has significantly strengthened the positions of the Russian Armed Forces on the right bank of the Zherebets River, reduced the "pocket" located south of the settlement, and also provided the opportunity to conduct further offensive actions to the west.
  • It is possible that the "pocket" has already been eliminated, as there are no convenient positions for defense, except for the "Zhelobki" forest.
• Other Developments:
  • Reports of North Korean soldiers being killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine.
  • Reports of an American mercenary known as "Doctor Death" being captured by Russian forces in the Kursk region.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. In Donetsk, Velyka Novosilka is under complete Russian control. Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and advancing. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces control about half of the urban area, and Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk have nearly collapsed. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces are gaining territory, capturing several settlements, including Nikolaevo-Daryino. The capture of Nadiia in the Luhansk region has allowed Russian forces to fortify their positions on the right bank of the Zherebets River. Drone warfare continues to be a prominent feature, with extensive activity reported. New information details further Russian advances in the Kursk region and the involvement of North Korean soldiers. The use of drones by both sides remains significant, with video evidence demonstrating their effectiveness. The situation in Kursk is particularly intense, with heavy fighting and significant losses reported. The strategic implications are substantial, with Russian forces making considerable gains and Ukrainian defenses under immense pressure.