Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 02:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is complete, with Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian positions within the settlement. The situation in Pokrovsk is dire, with 48 assault actions reported, indicating a major Russian offensive. Ukrainian forces are facing a desperate situation in Toretsk, with defenses collapsing.

Drone warfare is escalating significantly. Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target strategic locations deep inside Russia. The increased drone movements across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, particularly around Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, suggest a potential expansion of the drone conflict and the targeting of new areas. Reports indicate three drones in the north of Kyiv Oblast, moving into Zhytomyr Oblast. An explosion was heard in Kharkiv, correlating with earlier reports of drone activity in the area. New drone movements are reported in the north of Kyiv Oblast, heading towards Zhytomyr Oblast.

The political situation presents significant challenges for Ukraine. The confirmed 90-day suspension of most US foreign aid could severely impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts. US President Trump confirmed that he still plans to have a conversation with Russian President Putin and expressed confidence that the US will acquire Greenland, adding further geopolitical uncertainty.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Encirclement is complete; Russian forces control over 70% of the settlement. Ukrainian troops are blocked, with the escape route towards Blagodatnoye cut off.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city. 48 assault actions were reported. A damaged and abandoned Ukrainian M113 APC was reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. They are fighting in the Severnyi district.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. 14 enemy attacks were repelled.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed; less than 15% of the city remains under their control. Video evidence confirms Russian advances near Toretsk.
• Belohorivka: Video evidence shows Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka, clearing trenches and destroying enemy forces.

Drone Movements

• Widespread drone activity across numerous oblasts (Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia).
• Three drones are reported in the north of Kyiv Oblast, moving into Zhytomyr Oblast.
• A drone is reported in the southern part of Chernihiv Oblast, with a westward course.
• A drone was reported heading towards Kharkiv from the north.
• A drone was reported heading towards Pereiaslav from the southwest.

Drone Attacks in Russia

• Explosions and fires were reported in Ryazan due to drone attacks. Russian air defense systems are actively engaging drones, with several confirmed destroyed.

Kharkiv

• An explosion was heard in Kharkiv. Russian forces launched missile strikes and used "Geran" drones.

Luhansk

• Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has halted most foreign aid for 90 days. President Trump confirmed the freeze on new aid to other countries.
• US-Russia Relations: President Trump confirmed he still plans to talk to President Putin and expressed confidence that the US will acquire Greenland.

Military Actions

• The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of the assault on a Ukrainian stronghold by soldiers of the "Center" group.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces destroying a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Zarichne.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to make significant gains, particularly in the Donetsk region. The complete encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and the critical situation in Pokrovsk represent major setbacks for Ukraine. The escalating drone warfare, with increased activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks inside Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict. The new reports of drone movements towards Zhytomyr Oblast and the explosion in Kharkiv indicate a potential expansion of the drone conflict. The geopolitical developments, including the US aid suspension and President Trump's statements, further complicate the situation for Ukraine. The new video evidence of Russian forces storming Ukrainian positions near Belohorivka and destroying a Ukrainian BMP-2 near Zarichne highlights the intensity of the fighting and the continued Russian advances.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: With the encirclement complete, focus on conducting rearguard actions in Velyka Novosilka to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk region and areas targeted by increased drone movements like Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Kharkiv and regions targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid and explore alternative funding sources.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, and Chernihiv Oblasts. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
10. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the 90-day aid freeze to Ukraine and the statement about the US potentially acquiring Greenland. Urgently engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support and explore alternative funding sources.
11. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions.
12. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
13. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare.
14. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield, including training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry.
15. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
16. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
17. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
18. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
19. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
20. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
21. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict. This may involve engaging in diplomatic efforts with Russia and other relevant parties to find a peaceful resolution.
22. Respond to the Situation in Kharkiv: Investigate the cause of the explosion in Kharkiv and assess the extent of the damage. Deploy emergency response teams and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter potential future attacks.
23. Counter Russian Advances near Belohorivka: Deploy additional troops and anti-tank weapons to counter Russian advances near Belohorivka. Utilize the intelligence gathered from the video evidence to target and neutralize Russian forces.
24. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report indicating potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions and hiding vehicles ineffectively, should be exploited. Launch counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
25. Analyze the new six-legged robot: Though currently being tested for civilian use, the development of a six-legged robot capable of carrying heavy loads and operating in extreme cold should be closely monitored for potential military applications. Its ability to traverse difficult terrain could make it useful for logistics or reconnaissance.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.