Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 26, 2025, 02:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. The encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is complete, with video evidence showing Russian artillery targeting Ukrainian positions within the settlement. The situation in Pokrovsk is critical, with 48 assault actions reported, indicating a major Russian offensive. Ukrainian forces are facing a dire situation in Toretsk, with defenses collapsing. The reported advances near Ulakly, Konstantinopol, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, Kotlyne, and Sloviansk further complicate the situation for Ukrainian forces.

Drone warfare is significantly escalating. Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target strategic locations deep inside Russia, with new reports confirming a second fire at an oil refinery in Ryazan. The increased drone movements across multiple Ukrainian oblasts, particularly around Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv, suggest a potential expansion of the drone conflict and the targeting of new areas. The explosion in Sumy highlights the urgent need for enhanced air defense measures. The new reports of drone movements in the Belotserkovsky, Sumy, and Chernihiv districts further emphasize the widespread nature of the drone threat and the need for continuous monitoring and rapid response.

The political situation presents significant challenges for Ukraine. The confirmed 90-day suspension of most US foreign aid could severely impact Ukraine's ability to sustain its defense efforts, necessitating the urgent exploration of alternative funding sources. The call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation adds to the internal political pressure. The upcoming presidential elections in Belarus and North Korea's successful cruise missile test are notable developments in the broader geopolitical landscape. US President Trump confirmed that he still plans to have a conversation with Russian President Putin.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Encirclement is complete; Russian forces control over 70% of the settlement. Ukrainian troops are blocked, with the escape route towards Blagodatnoye cut off. Russian artillery from the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group is targeting Ukrainian strongholds within the settlement.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers and advancing, having severed the penultimate railway line to the city. 48 assault actions were reported. Russian forces are making advances near Kotlyne. A damaged and abandoned Ukrainian M113 APC was reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant and have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district. They are fighting in the Severnyi district. Video evidence shows fighting involving the "Española" brigade, the 98th Airborne Division, and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade. Russian forces are making advances in Toretsk.
• Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove has been captured, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. 14 enemy attacks were repelled. Russian forces are advancing towards Ulakly and Konstantinopol and attempting to encircle Ulakly. Ukrainian forces have withdrawn from Dachne. Russian forces are making advances near Uspenivka, Udachne, and Kotlyne. Heavy fighting is reported between Pishchane and Zvir.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed; less than 15% of the city remains under their control. Video evidence confirms Russian advances and the effectiveness of their drone warfare. The 132nd brigade continues to target Ukrainian vehicles near Toretsk.

Other Regions

• Drone Movements: Widespread drone activity across numerous oblasts (Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Lipetsk). One drone is reported in the Belotserkovsky district heading towards Vinnytsia Oblast, another is circling in the Sumy district, and three drones are east of Chernihiv with a southwestern course. The Ukrainian Air Force reported activity of Russian tactical aviation on the north-eastern direction and launches of guided bombs on Sumy region.
• Drone Attacks in Russia: Explosions and fires were reported in Ryazan due to drone attacks. Russian air defense systems are actively engaging drones, with several confirmed destroyed.
• Kharkiv: An explosion was heard in Kharkiv. Russian forces launched missile strikes and used "Geran" drones.
• Luhansk: Russian forces are making advances near Nadiivka and Petropavlivka.

Geopolitical Developments

• US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has halted most foreign aid for 90 days. President Trump confirmed the freeze on new aid to other countries.
• Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
• US-Russia Relations: President Trump confirmed he still plans to talk to President Putin.
• China: China has completed a series of tests of a six-legged robot dog in the area of the Zhongshan scientific station in Antarctica. An insulated battery allows the robot to operate for 2 hours at low temperatures of -30°C to -40°C. Two additional batteries can be installed to increase the operating time to 4-6 hours. The payload weight is 70-100 kg.

Military Actions

• The Russian Ministry of Defense published footage of the assault on a Ukrainian stronghold by soldiers of the "Center" group.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly critical.
2. Address the Situation in Velyka Novosilka: With the encirclement complete, focus on conducting rearguard actions in Velyka Novosilka to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions, and now urgently in areas targeted by increased drone movements like Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas under threat, including Ryazan, Vylkove/Kiliya, Berdychiv, Vinnytsia, Korosten, Sumy Oblast, and other regions inside Russia targeted by Ukrainian drone attacks. The new explosion in Sumy and the second attack on the Ryazan oil refinery highlight the urgent need for enhanced air defenses in these regions.
5. Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and establish alternative routes to ensure the continued flow of troops, equipment, and supplies to the front lines, especially given the advances near Ulakly, Konstantinopol, Nadiivka, Petropavlivka, and Kotlyne.
6. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems. Address the call for the Ukrainian Defense Minister's resignation and work to maintain international confidence in Ukraine's defense capabilities. The confirmed 90-day suspension of US aid makes this even more critical.
7. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Address the conflicting reports about the situation in Ryazan, clarifying the extent of the damage caused by drone attacks.
8. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
9. Assess and Mitigate Damage in Ryazan: Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to the oil refinery and any other affected infrastructure in Ryazan. Provide assistance to affected civilians and repair critical infrastructure. Enhance air defenses in the region to prevent further attacks.
10. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Kyiv, Sumy, Cherkasy, Odesa, Vinnytsia, Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr Oblasts, with special attention to the new areas of Shepetivka, Khmelnytskyi, Starokostiantyniv, Sumy, Poltava, and Chernihiv. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas. The new reports of drone movements in the Belotserkovsky, Sumy, and Chernihiv districts require immediate attention. Deploy rapid response units to these areas to intercept drones and protect vulnerable targets.
11. Exploit Russian Weaknesses: The report indicating potential weaknesses in Russian tactics, particularly their difficulty in securing captured positions, should be exploited. Launch counterattacks to regain lost territory and disrupt Russian advances.
12. Address the Threat of New Russian Drones: Develop countermeasures against emerging threats like the new Russian fiber-optic-connected drones. Invest in research and development of anti-drone technologies that can effectively neutralize these drones.
13. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the confirmed shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding the 90-day aid freeze to Ukraine and the statement about the US potentially becoming a larger country. Urgently engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support and explore alternative funding sources.
14. Intelligence Gathering: Utilize all available intelligence assets to gather information about Russian troop movements, concentrations, and intentions. The analysis of the damaged German ATF Dingo 2 and the video evidence of Russian artillery in Velyka Novosilka provide valuable intelligence.
15. Adapt to Asymmetric Warfare: The increasing use of improvised drones and other asymmetric tactics by both sides requires a flexible and adaptive approach to warfare. Develop and implement tactics that can effectively counter these threats while also leveraging similar capabilities to gain an advantage.
16. Leverage Technological Advantages: Continue to invest in and develop advanced military technologies, particularly in areas such as drone warfare, electronic warfare, and cyber warfare.
17. Train and Equip Troops: Ensure that Ukrainian troops are adequately trained and equipped to deal with the evolving threats on the battlefield, including training in counter-drone operations, urban warfare, and the use of advanced weaponry.
18. Maintain Situational Awareness: Continuously monitor the situation on the ground and adjust strategies and tactics accordingly. The fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict requires a high degree of flexibility and adaptability.
19. Prepare for Potential Escalation: The ongoing conflict has the potential to escalate further, particularly if new weapons systems are introduced or if the conflict spills over into neighboring countries. Develop contingency plans to address potential escalation scenarios.
20. Protect Critical Infrastructure: Given the continued targeting of critical infrastructure by both sides, enhance the protection of key facilities, such as power plants, oil refineries, and transportation hubs.
21. Address the Humanitarian Situation: Provide humanitarian assistance to affected populations, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
22. Plan for Post-Conflict Recovery: Begin planning for post-conflict recovery and reconstruction efforts. This includes assessing the damage to infrastructure, developing plans for rebuilding, and securing funding for these efforts.
23. Maintain International Solidarity: Continue to work with international partners to maintain solidarity and support for Ukraine. This includes diplomatic efforts to isolate Russia, economic sanctions, and military assistance.
24. Seek a Negotiated Solution: While continuing to defend against Russian aggression, explore opportunities for a negotiated solution to the conflict. This may involve engaging in diplomatic efforts with Russia and other relevant parties to find a peaceful resolution.
25. Counter Russian Missile and Drone Attacks in Kharkiv: Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to Kharkiv to counter the reported missile and "Geran" drone attacks. Prioritize the protection of civilians and critical infrastructure in the region.
26. Respond to the Situation in Sumy: Investigate the cause of the explosion in Sumy and assess the extent of the damage. Deploy emergency response teams and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance air defense measures in the region to counter potential future attacks.
27. Analyze the new six-legged robot: Though currently being tested for civilian use, the development of a six-legged robot capable of carrying heavy loads and operating in extreme cold should be closely monitored for potential military applications. Its ability to traverse difficult terrain could make it useful for logistics or reconnaissance.

These recommendations are based on the current situation and available information. The situation is constantly evolving, and recommendations may need to be adjusted accordingly.