Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 25, 2025, 23:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant breakthroughs across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, with major developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have completed the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka. They are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and have captured about half of Chasiv Yar's urban area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts. Ukrainian drone attacks persist deep in Russian territory, with reports of explosions in Ryazan due to drone attacks and air defense activity.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka

Russian forces have completed the encirclement and liquidated the "southern cauldron."
Ukrainian troops are blocked to the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blagodatnoye now cut off.
Russian forces control over 70% of Velyka Novosilka.

Pokrovsk

Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance.
They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
New: The intensity of attacks is high, with 48 assault actions reported in the Pokrovsk direction.

Chasiv Yar

Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat in Chasiv Yar.

Kurakhove

Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
New: Russian forces are advancing towards Ulakly and Konstantinopol, west of Kurakhovo.

Toretsk

Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
Video evidence indicates that the 132nd brigade of the Russian forces successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian tank in Toretsk using a drone. This further confirms the Russian advance and the effectiveness of their drone warfare.
The 132nd brigade of the Russian forces are continuing to target and destroy Ukrainian armored and automotive vehicles near Toretsk.

Other Regions

Drone Movements:
- Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
- Three additional drones are reported near Vylkove/Kiliya, moving from the sea.
- Drone strikes are reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts.
- New: Six drones are reported in the Belotserkovsky district, heading west.
- New: One drone is reported in the north of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
- New: One drone is reported in the north of Odesa Oblast, moving into Vinnytsia Oblast.
- New: One drone is approaching Vylkove.
- New: One drone is reported over Dnipro city.
- New: Drones are reported in the northern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west.
- New: Drones are reported in Sumy Oblast, heading south.
- New: Drones are reported in the eastern part of Cherkasy Oblast, heading northwest.
- New: Drones are reported in the southern part of Kyiv Oblast, heading west/southwest.
- New: Drones are reported east of Dnipro, heading south.
Drone Attacks in Russia:
- New: Reports of explosions in Ryazan, Russia, due to drone attacks and air defense activity.
- New: Russian sources claim that air defense systems in Ryazan are actively engaging and destroying a significant number of drones.
Kharkiv
- New: An explosion was heard in Kharkiv.

Political/Economic Situation

US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days.
Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
Investigation into actor Smolyaninov (recognized as a foreign agent in Russia) on charges of extremism and spreading false information about the Russian Armed Forces has been extended for another three months. His location has been established.
New: Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on January 26, with five candidates, including incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko.

Changes from New Messages

Intensified Fighting in Pokrovsk Direction: Reports indicate a significant increase in combat activity in the Pokrovsk direction, with 48 assault actions reported. This highlights the strategic importance of Pokrovsk and the intensity of the Russian offensive in this area.
Russian Advances West of Kurakhovo: New information confirms Russian advances towards Ulakly and Konstantinopol, indicating a widening of the offensive front west of Kurakhovo.
Continued Drone Warfare: Drone activity remains a critical aspect of the conflict, with new reports of drone movements across multiple regions. The use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeted strikes, and psychological warfare continues to shape the battlefield dynamics.
Drone Attacks in Ryazan: Reports of explosions and air defense activity in Ryazan, Russia, indicate that Ukrainian drone attacks are continuing to target strategic locations deep inside Russian territory. This demonstrates the reach and persistence of Ukrainian drone capabilities.
Confirmed Drone Shootdown in South Donetsk Direction: Video evidence confirms that operators from the 139th Separate Rifle Battalion of the 29th Combined Arms Army of the "Vostok" group successfully shot down an enemy drone using a ramming technique. This highlights the ongoing drone warfare and the innovative tactics being employed.
Explosion in Kharkiv: Reports of an explosion in Kharkiv indicate continued Russian attacks on the city, likely targeting military or infrastructure assets.
Belarusian Presidential Elections: The upcoming presidential elections in Belarus, with incumbent President Alexander Lukashenko running again, could have implications for the region and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, depending on the outcome and the political dynamics that follow.

These updates underscore the fluid and dynamic nature of the conflict, with ongoing intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, and the continued importance of drone warfare. The situation in Pokrovsk is particularly concerning, with the high number of assault actions indicating a major Russian offensive effort. The drone attacks in Ryazan highlight the persistent threat to strategic locations deep inside Russia. The confirmation of a drone shootdown in the South Donetsk direction demonstrates the ongoing battle for air superiority and the use of innovative tactics in drone warfare.

Situation Report