Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 25, 2025, 22:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure and achieving significant breakthroughs across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, with major developments around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have completed the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka. They are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and have captured about half of Chasiv Yar's urban area. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions, including Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Velyka Novosilka
Russian forces have completed the encirclement and liquidated the "southern cauldron."
Ukrainian troops are blocked to the north and south, with the only remaining escape route on foot towards Blagodatnoye now cut off.
Russian forces control over 70% of Velyka Novosilka.
Pokrovsk
Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and continuing their advance.
They have severed the penultimate railway line to the city.
Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
Chasiv Yar
Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant.
They have captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat in Chasiv Yar.
Kurakhove
Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Toretsk
Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
New: Video evidence indicates that the 132nd brigade of the Russian forces successfully targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian tank in Toretsk using a drone. This further confirms the Russian advance and the effectiveness of their drone warfare.
New: The 132nd brigade of the Russian forces are continuing to target and destroy Ukrainian armored and automotive vehicles near Toretsk.
Other Regions
Drone Movements:
Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
New: Three additional drones are reported near Vylkove/Kiliya, moving from the sea.
New: Drone strikes are reported in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts.
Political/Economic Situation
US Aid Suspension: The US State Department has issued an order to halt most foreign aid for 90 days.
Syria-Russia Relations: Syria has terminated all agreements with Russia regarding the lease of the port of Tartus.
New: Investigation into actor Smolyaninov (recognized as a foreign agent in Russia) on charges of extremism and spreading false information about the Russian Armed Forces has been extended for another three months. His location has been established.
Changes from New Messages
Drone Strikes in Multiple Oblasts: Confirmed drone strikes in Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Cherkasy oblasts, indicating a widespread drone attack by Russian forces.
Continued Fighting in Toretsk: Video evidence confirms ongoing battles in Toretsk, with Russian forces successfully targeting and destroying Ukrainian military equipment using drones.
Investigation into Actor Smolyaninov: The investigation into actor Smolyaninov has been extended, and his location has been established.
These new developments highlight the intensification of the conflict, particularly with the increased use of drones by Russian forces and their continued advance in the Donetsk region. The situation in Toretsk is particularly concerning, with Ukrainian defenses under heavy pressure. The widespread drone attacks across multiple oblasts demonstrate the expanding scope of the conflict and the challenges faced by Ukrainian air defenses.
