Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 11:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces are solidifying their encirclement, having reportedly raised the Russian flag in the center of the town. Ukrainian troops are blocked in the north and south, with escape routes cut off and the Ukrainian command acknowledging the risk of an operational encirclement. The situation for Ukrainian forces is described as worse than in Vuhledar. In Pokrovsk, Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and continuing their advance, consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2, and severing the penultimate railway line to the city. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces continue to advance, dislodging Ukrainian forces and controlling approximately 20% of the refractory plant. In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Zakhidne and Ivanovka, advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units, including reports of North Korean casualties. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported across multiple regions. Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted oil refineries and industrial facilities deep inside Russia, including successful strikes on the Ryazan refinery, a Ryazan oil pumping station, and the "Kreminy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones, while Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka:

  • Russian forces have reportedly raised the Russian flag in the center of Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces are within 1.5 km of complete encirclement, with Ukrainian forces blocked in the northern and southern parts and escape routes cut off.
  • The Ukrainian garrison in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka remains encircled.
  • Video evidence shows the "Vostok" group targeting a Ukrainian command post near Velyka Novosilka, with over 150 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly killed.
  • The "Vostok" group is using all available means to attack the blocked enemy.
  • Ukrainian forces report that the only way in and out of Velyka Novosilka is on foot.
  • Russian forces are reportedly organizing an evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Velyka Novosilka.
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near Velyka Novosilka.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
  • The Ukrainian command has acknowledged the risk of an operational encirclement of Velyka Novosilka. The 110th Mechanized Brigade and attached units are in an operational encirclement, meaning that no free routes of communication remain, and no combat vehicles can enter or exit. The situation is further complicated by the fact that evacuation of the wounded is impossible, leading to increased losses. The command is urged to make a decision regarding the defense of this area, as further delays could result in significant losses and the inability to hold the next convenient line of defense.
  • Russian forces are squeezing the remnants of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.
  • Video evidence shows the work of Russian "Solntsepyok" systems on Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.

• Pokrovsk:

  • Russian forces are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city and continuing their advance.
  • Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
  • Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
  • Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk, including the destruction of a German Leopard tank.
  • Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
  • The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement.
  • Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka.
  • Russian forces have cut the penultimate railway line to Pokrovsk.
  • Video evidence shows paratroopers of the 79th Brigade dismantling enemy armored vehicles in the Pokrovsk area.
  • Continues Russian advances towards Pershe Travnia (Leontovychi), Novosergievka, and Lysivka.
  • Continued advancement of Russian forces is reported northwest, north, and northeast of Dmytrovo (Kotlyno), towards the E50 highway, in the direction of Sergeevka, and towards the mine and concentration plant.
  • Heavy fighting continues in Zverevo and surrounding areas.
  • Russian forces have advanced towards the central part of Udachne. South of Udachne, Russian units have advanced in the fields.
  • Fighting is ongoing near the Tsarskoye reservoir, the gully, and the eastern part of Novosergievka.

• Chasiv Yar:

  • Russian forces continue to advance in Chasiv Yar, dislodging the enemy from their positions.
  • Near Chasiv Yar, Russian forces approach the western outskirts from the north side of the railway.
  • The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been cleared.
  • Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
  • A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant.
  • Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
  • Russian forces have made significant advances in the urban area, capturing about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district.
  • They have also gained control of the fourth section of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant.
  • Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat.
  • Video evidence shows the 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar.
  • Video evidence shows a report from the "Rodnya" Battalion from within Chasiv Yar, indicating ongoing fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces. The battalion's current focus is on securing the flanks to the north and south of the city rather than immediate urban clearing operations.

• Kurakhove:

  • Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the area with FPV drones.
  • Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
  • Active combat operations reported near Kurakhovo.
  • Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.

• Toretsk:

  • Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
  • Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
  • Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk.
  • Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.

• Kramatorsk:

  • A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk.
  • Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.

• Zverevo:

  • The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully.

• Donetsk:

  • Explosions were reported in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk.
  • Russian forces shelled the Donetsk region 23 times in the past 24 hours.

• Other:

  • Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone targeting and destroying a Ukrainian communication antenna and personnel in the Svatove-Kupyansk direction with a "KUB" guided munition.
  • Video evidence shows a FAB-1500 strike on a temporary deployment point of the 5th Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Novodmitrovka.
  • The defense operation in Novovasylivka has ended, and the village is now occupied by Russian forces. The 59th Motorized Brigade held the defense for over a month in difficult conditions, and for the last two weeks in full encirclement.
  • Video evidence shows a road junction near Vozdvizhenka being blown up.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances:

  • Russian forces have captured Zakhidne.
  • Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
  • They have also advanced 2 km northwest of Makiivka and have taken control of a forest area between the settlements, continuing to advance towards Hrekivka.

• Positional Fighting:

  • Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area.

• Borova Direction:

  • Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive:

  • The Sever Group of Forces engaged formations of a tank brigade, a heavy mechanized brigade, four mechanized brigades, two air assault brigades, a marine brigade, and three territorial defense brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near several settlements.
  • Since the beginning of hostilities in Kursk region, the AFU losses amounted to more than 52,870 troops, 304 tanks, 232 infantry fighting vehicles, 174 armored personnel carriers, 1,572 armored fighting vehicles, 1,508 motor vehicles, 377 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 of HIMARS and six of MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 93 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defence radars, 30 units of engineering and other materiel, including 13 counterobstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, eight armoured recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
  • Russian forces are continuing an operation to neutralize an enemy group that broke into the territory.
  • Heavy fighting continues in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks, slowing Russian progress.
  • Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino.
  • Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya.
  • Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed.
  • Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka.
  • Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory.
  • Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka.
  • "Дневник Десантника" reports that in the Kursk region, counter battles continue south of Kruglенькое and in the direction of Nikolaevka—Viktorivka—Nikol'skiy, where the Russian Armed Forces are trying to cut through the enemy's defenses. They are also storming enemy positions in the area of Kurilovka and Guyevo, and in the vicinity. From the field, fighters report entering Guyevo.
  • A Su-35s fighter jet crew provided air cover for bomber, ground-attack, and army aviation during strikes on armored vehicles and military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the border area of Kursk region.
  • Russian forces, specifically Ussuri paratroopers, have reportedly fully liberated Nikolayevo-Daryino.
  • Russian naval infantry are reportedly continuing to engage Ukrainian forces in Kurilovka and its surroundings.
  • Video evidence shows an armored group of the special forces "Akhmat" repelling a Ukrainian counterattack and advancing near Sudzha.
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces capturing trophies in liberated Russkoye Porechnoye, including Belgian thermobaric weapons, a Swedish-made grenade launcher, and U.S.-made 40-mm grenades.
  • In the Kursk region, heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, the Armed Forces of Russia are approaching Malaya Loknya, and the enemy is counterattacking.
  • Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
  • In the area of Kruhlenke/Viktorivka, Russian assault units have entered Viktorivka and are attempting to establish a foothold. Offensive actions are being conducted towards the settlement of Nikolske.
  • From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.
  • The Ukrainian Armed Forces have inflicted damage in the Kursk region amounting to 750 billion rubles.

• Drone Warfare:

  • Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
  • Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
  • Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions.
  • Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka.
  • Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows a group of operators from the FPV GВ "North" chasing an enemy tank in the Kursk border area. After several accurate hits, the heavy equipment caught fire along with the crew.
  • Video evidence shows the effective work of anti-tank marines in Kurshina. The calculation of the Javelin operators took out three enemy tanks and four BMD-4 units of the enemy armored group in two days.
  • Video evidence shows a drone operator of the Russian Guard destroying a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces destroying Russian military vehicles and equipment in the Kursk region, including a truck, 10 cars, an ATV, and an armored fighting vehicle.
  • Video evidence shows an American-made "Abrams" tank being destroyed by a Russian "Lancet" drone near Viktorivka.
  • Video evidence shows the aftermath of a Russian strike on a Ukrainian dugout.
  • Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones targeting and destroying Ukrainian military equipment, including a tank and an armored personnel carrier.
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast.
  • A Russian drone targeted and destroyed a Ukrainian D-30 howitzer in Makhnovka, Kursk region.
  • Russian forces successfully employed a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region.
  • Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been destroyed.
  • A Russian drone operator targeted a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region.
  • A Ukrainian tank was destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
  • The Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area.
  • "WarGonzo" shows a special report on a Russian armored group called "Pressa" operating in the Kursk region.
  • Russian forces destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area with a Su-34 bomber.
  • There is video evidence of captured Ukrainian soldiers in the Kursk region.

• North Korean Involvement:

  • South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed. Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
  • A message from "STERNENKO" reports that North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region have killed 5 Russian marines and fled. An image from "STERNENKO" shows a wanted poster for three North Korean soldiers accused of killing five Russian marines.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian soldiers from the 95th Air Assault Brigade capturing a North Korean soldier. The video also shows the difficult conditions faced by Ukrainian forces and their successful defense against a numerically superior enemy.
  • Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine. As of mid-January, North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region reportedly suffered around 4,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks:

  • One drone is approaching Balakliia.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast.
  • New drone groups are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course.

• Russian Advance:

  • Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
  • On the right bank of the Oskol, Russian forces are continuing to push through Ukrainian defenses and are expanding their control zone towards the western part of Dvurichna in the direction of Sagunivka.
  • Fighting continues in the area of Zelenyi Hai, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to improve their tactical position by attacking from Borova Andriivka.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front.
• Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting a building in Zaporizhzhia with four missiles.
• The number of victims from the night attack in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 46.
• F-16s were spotted flying in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
• A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been reissued for the region. The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
• The air raid alert in the Zaporizhzhia region has been lifted.
• Ukrainian forces report using drones to hunt Russian infantry near Kupyansk.
• Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity:

  • New reports indicate drone movements in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk.
  • Ukrainian forces report repelling a drone attack in the Rostov region.
  • New drone threats are reported in Mykolaiv.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south.
  • There are reports of two drones flying over the city of Mykolaiv.
  • There are also reports of two drones approaching the city of Mykolaiv from the direction of Bolshaya Korenikha.
  • The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south.
  • Massive drone attacks targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea.
  • Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones.
  • Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys."
  • Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
  • Video evidence shows the moment of today's drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
  • New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. There are reports of drones in various districts, including Belotserkovsky, Akhtyrka, Kupyansky, and Berislavsky.
  • New reports indicate 5 drones are flying past Bashtanka towards the Voznesensky district, 1 drone flew past Kryvyi Rih into the Kirovohrad region, 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi, 2 drones in the Kamensky area, 7 drones in the Kremenchug district in a northwesterly direction, 4 drones circling in the Kupyansk area, 2 drones north of Lozova, Kharkiv region, in a westerly direction, 3 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn, 3 drones from Sumy region flying to Chernihiv region, 1 drone in the north of Poltava region in a westerly direction, 1 new drone from the Black Sea in the direction of Fontanka.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south. The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: south of Sumy Oblast (westward course), west and southeast of Chernihiv Oblast (west/southwest course), center of Poltava Oblast (northeast course), west of Kirovohrad Oblast (south course), north and southeast of Kyiv Oblast (west/south course), north of Donetsk Oblast (west/east course), and Odesa Oblast (east course, towards Chornomorsk).
  • 1 drone is reported south of Uman, 2 in the north of Kyiv Oblast (westward course), 3 passing through Pereiaslav (southwest course), 1 moving from Kharkiv to Poltava Oblast, and 1 moving from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast.
  • A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region. Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast.
  • One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast. One drone is approaching Zhytomyr. New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast.
  • The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi.
  • Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary and are likely to turn towards Izmail. One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region.
  • Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region. A drone is circling near Starokonstantinov. 12 drones from the Black Sea are flying towards Tatarbunary and then towards the Izmail district.
  • Groups of attack drones are reported on Sumy Oblast, with most on the south of the oblast, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. 2 drones are reported to be heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
  • 1 drone is reported to be flying from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriia. 1 drone is reported to be north of Cherkasy, moving west.
  • 4 drones are circling the Okhtyrka area. Cherkasy Oblast is under threat of a drone attack. A Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast.
  • A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south. Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv,
  • In Brovary, Kyiv Oblast, Russian forces struck a foreign mercenary deployment point, destroying the headquarters building, communication terminals, a satellite station, and a server center. One British instructor was confirmed killed, and several others were injured.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying 15 units of Russian military transport in the Zaporizhzhia region.
  • 15 drones were reportedly shot down or suppressed over the Rostov region of Russia during the night.
  • 7 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea the previous evening.
  • 9 drones were reportedly shot down in the Rostov region around midnight.
  • One drone was reportedly shot down over the Voronezh region during the night.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to clear an area of Russian soldiers near Glubokoye.

• New Drone Technology:

  • Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "Mikrob," with AI capabilities.
  • Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2".
  • Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya-2" drones equipped with TM-62M anti-tank mines for targeted strikes.
  • Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.

• Successful Ukrainian Drone Strikes:

  • Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted oil refineries and industrial facilities deep inside Russia, including successful strikes on the Ryazan refinery, a Ryazan oil pumping station, and the "Kreminy El" microelectronics plant in Bryansk.
  • Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire.
  • Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting and destroying a Russian "TOR-M2" air defense system.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting and destroying a Russian drone operator's car and equipment.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone striking a Russian "Grad" multiple rocket launcher system.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone successfully targeting a Russian tank.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drones targeting and destroying a Russian armored vehicle and personnel.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drones destroying a Russian "Buk" air defense system.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting a Russian observation post with a drone.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting and destroying a Russian T-72 tank.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drones targeting Russian infantry positions.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian trench position.
  • Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone destroying a Russian "Giatsint-B" howitzer.
  • Video evidence shows Ukrainian drones destroying a Russian fuel tanker and ammunition truck.

Geopolitical Developments

• Former US President Trump claims that President Zelensky should not have allowed the war to happen and that Ukraine was always a target for Putin. He also threatened to use $330 billion of frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine in purchasing American weapons. However, the editor of The Telegraph stated that this is just speculation.
• The ODKB (Collective Security Treaty Organization) still considers Armenia its ally, despite statements from the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service.
• The Parliament of Armenia will consider a bill on joining the EU in February.
• The German Ambassador to Russia announced that Berlin would not participate in the Victory Parade in Moscow.
• Trump's administration does not intend to participate in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the end of the conflict.
• Bloomberg reports that European allies agree that the US should provide troops for any future peacekeeping force in Ukraine.
• European allies are pushing for US involvement in peacekeeping in Ukraine, with Zelensky requesting a direct US presence.
• Hungarian Prime Minister Orban demands Ukraine restore Russian gas transit to continue EU sanctions against Russia.
• Israeli Foreign Ministry has indicated a possibility of transferring captured Russian weaponry to Ukraine.
• A Republican congressman proposed a resolution to amend the US Constitution, allowing Trump to run for a third term.
• The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
• Zelensky began copying Trump, according to Le Monde.
• The US Senate confirmed Marco Rubio as Secretary of State.
• Trump will cancel the freeze on the supply of powerful bombs to Israel, according to media reports.
• Marco Rubio stated that Ukraine and Russia must "give up something" to end the war.
• Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
• Donald Trump said the US has a right to half of TikTok.
• Donald Trump signed a decree to create a structure in the US headed by Elon Musk to improve the efficiency of the government.
• Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
• Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
• Trump signed a decree to abolish birthright citizenship for children of illegal immigrants.
• The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table.
• The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years.
• Zelensky stated that US peacekeepers should be sent to Ukraine.
• Zelensky said he is confident that Xi Jinping can push Putin to peace.
• A Republican congressman proposed amending the US Constitution to allow Trump to serve a third term.
• Putin is ready for a conversation with Trump, according to Peskov.
• The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term.
• Moscow expects a prompt positive decision from the US on the agreement for the appointment of a new Russian ambassador, according to Sergey Ryabkov.
• John Ratcliffe has officially taken office as the new head of the CIA.

Humanitarian Situation

• Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
• The work of the Don-Donbass water pipeline has been suspended due to shelling by Ukrainian forces, according to the Ministry of Construction. Water supply will be reduced by 20% today.

Ongoing Operations

• Russian forces are conducting offensive operations in the Donetsk, Luhansk, and Kursk regions.
• Ukrainian forces are conducting defensive operations and launching drone attacks against targets inside Russia.
• Intense fighting is reported in Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, Chasiv Yar, and the Kursk region.
• Drone warfare continues to be a significant feature of the conflict.

Potential Future Developments

• Further Russian advances in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
• Increased drone attacks by both sides.
• Potential escalation of the conflict in the Kursk region.
• Possible shifts in US policy under a potential Trump administration.
• Continued negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, potentially involving international mediators.
• Continued internal security challenges within Ukraine, as highlighted by the investigation into counterfeit documents and the arrest of officials for corruption.
• Potential increase in tensions between Russia and the US, particularly if Trump's alleged threat to use frozen Russian assets for Ukraine's benefit is carried out.
• Possible further involvement of other countries, such as North Korea, in the conflict.
• Further diplomatic developments, including the potential appointment of a new Russian ambassador to the US.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are close to encircling Velyka Novosilka and advancing on Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and Russian forces are consolidating their gains. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks on critical infrastructure. The geopolitical landscape is also shifting, with the potential for changes in US policy under a possible Trump administration and continued negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The humanitarian situation remains dire, with ongoing attacks on civilian areas and the displacement of populations. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the future course of the conflict, with both sides likely to adapt their strategies in response to the evolving situation on the ground. The new information about the potential impact on the Ukrainian economy due to the National Bank's decision to raise the accounting rate to 14.5% adds another layer of complexity to the situation. This could potentially affect inflation and have economic consequences for Ukraine, further straining its resources during the ongoing conflict. The new image and text about the "factory" for producing fake documents, shut down by Ukrainian authorities, highlights the ongoing internal security challenges faced by Ukraine.