Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 08:08 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have achieved substantial gains, notably the complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar.

Velyka Novosilka is under heavy assault, with reports indicating that the "southern part of the settlement is cut off from the northern part" and Russian forces are "advancing towards the center." Video evidence purportedly shows the "Vostok" group starting the "liberation" of Velyka Novosilka, with the raising of the Russian flag in the center, signifying a major symbolic victory. The latest updates indicate that Russian assault units have seized the center of Velyka Novosilka, with Ukrainian forces reportedly retreating entirely from the settlement. Ukrainian military sources confirm the dire situation, stating that the 110th Mechanized Brigade is trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.

Near Chasiv Yar, Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts from the north side of the railway. The 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard is reportedly targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar.

Around Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road and are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city. Russian forces are also engaged in active combat operations near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.

Massive drone attacks have targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones, although Ukrainian sources suggest the number could be as high as 150-180. The attacks caused disruption and damage to critical infrastructure, such as oil refineries near Ryazan and Engels, and industrial facilities in Bryansk. Airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara introduced and subsequently lifted restrictions.

Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight, with 31 drones classified as "decoys." New reports detail a drone attack on private homes in the Koryukivskyi district of Chernihiv Oblast.

The Kursk region sees continued Russian advances, with the Ukrainian counteroffensive stalled and heavy losses reported. South Korean intelligence reports significant casualties among North Korean soldiers fighting in the region. The involvement of North Korean soldiers is further evidenced by Ukrainian reports of a captured North Korean soldier and an incident where North Korean soldiers allegedly killed Russian marines and fled.

In the Kharkiv region, drone attacks persist, with explosions reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna. Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling.

In the Luhansk region, Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. An encirclement attempt is reported near Nadiia.

The Zaporizhzhia region sees continued positional battles with no significant changes to the line of contact. Drone activity is reported, with an air raid alert reissued for the region.

Key Developments (New)

Geopolitical Developments

Former US President Trump claims that President Zelensky should not have allowed the war to happen and that Ukraine was always a target for Putin. He threatened Russia with "the strongest sanctions and tariffs" if it does not agree to end the war quickly. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Kremlin believes Trump's threats are empty and that Russia can withstand at least another year of war.
Russian media source, Wall Street Journal, states that Russia is not afraid of Trump's threats and is prepared to continue the war for at least another year while making advances on the front. Moscow believes it can withstand sanctions and has an advantage on the front, moving towards important logistical centers in Ukraine. Experts suggest that Putin might be aiming for a summit with Trump to negotiate a settlement favorable to Moscow, bypassing the Ukrainian leadership.
The ODKB (Collective Security Treaty Organization) still considers Armenia its ally, despite statements from the Armenian Foreign Intelligence Service, according to a source within the organization reported by TASS.
The Parliament of Armenia will consider a bill on joining the EU in February, according to the press secretary of the Speaker of the Parliament, Movses Harutyunyan, reported by TASS.
The German Ambassador to Russia, as reported by TASS, announced that Berlin would not participate in the Victory Parade in Moscow.

Donetsk Region

Velyka Novosilka: Russian assault units have reportedly captured the center of the town, and Ukrainian forces have allegedly retreated from the settlement entirely. Ukrainian military sources confirm that the 110th Mechanized Brigade is trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.
Toretsk: Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west. A photo message purports to show that "liberated" Pokrovsk is now in ruins.
Kurakhove: Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the area with FPV drones.
Chasiv Yar: Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant. Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat.
Zverevo: The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
Russian forces shelled the Donetsk region 23 times in the past 24 hours, using 69 munitions.

Kursk Region

Russian Advances: Video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers raising a flag in Nikolayevo-Daryino. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows the work of anti-tank marines in Kurshina, taking out three enemy tanks and four BMD-4 units.
North Korean Involvement: Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers. Video evidence shows Ukrainian soldiers from the 95th Air Assault Brigade capturing a North Korean soldier. The video also shows the difficult conditions faced by Ukrainian forces and their successful defense against a numerically superior enemy.
Russian forces report finding the mutilated bodies of elderly people in Russkoe Porechnoe.
A captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stated that he joined the Ukrainian Armed Forces to surrender to Russia.

Kharkiv Region

Drone Attacks: One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. A new group of Russian drones is reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, with a west/southwest course. New drone groups are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course. Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north of Kharkiv Oblast. A guided aerial bomb (KAB) was reported in the direction of Staryi Saltiv (Kharkiv Oblast).
Russian Advance: Russian forces have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Video evidence shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the Kupyansk direction.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR). They also report advances beyond Nadiia towards the border with the Kharkiv region.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: New reports indicate 5 drones are flying past Bashtanka towards the Voznesensky district, 1 drone flew past Kryvyi Rih into the Kirovohrad region, 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi, 2 drones in the Kamensky area, 7 drones in the Kremenchug district in a northwesterly direction, 4 drones circling in the Kupyansk area, 2 drones north of Lozova, Kharkiv region, in a westerly direction, 3 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn, 3 drones from Sumy region flying to Chernihiv region, 1 drone in the north of Poltava region in a westerly direction, 1 new drone from the Black Sea in the direction of Fontanka. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south. There are reports of two drones flying over the city of Mykolaiv. There are also reports of two drones approaching the city of Mykolaiv from the direction of Bolshaya Korenikha. The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: south of Sumy Oblast (westward course), west and southeast of Chernihiv Oblast (west/southwest course), center of Poltava Oblast (northeast course), west of Kirovohrad Oblast (south course), north and southeast of Kyiv Oblast (west/south course), north of Donetsk Oblast (west/east course), and Odesa Oblast (east course, towards Chornomorsk). 1 drone is reported south of Uman, 2 in the north of Kyiv Oblast (westward course), 3 passing through Pereiaslav (southwest course), 1 moving from Kharkiv to Poltava Oblast, and 1 moving from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast.
New Drone Technology: Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2". Video evidence shows Russian forces using "Molniya-2" drones equipped with TM-62M anti-tank mines for targeted strikes.
Smolensk Under Attack: Video evidence shows a series of explosions in Smolensk on the backdrop of a drone attack. The target of the drones was likely the Smolensk oil refinery Yartsevo. Air defense systems are reportedly operating in the area. Video evidence shows air defense systems operating in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a heavy vehicle moving on a snowy road at night in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a nighttime scene in a wooded area with the sound of a distant vehicle, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a pixelated surveillance camera feed from an unknown location within the Smolensk Oblast. Video evidence shows a heavy vehicle driving on a snowy or icy road at night, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a nighttime cityscape with explosions, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows air defense systems operating in Smolensk. Video evidence from a thermal camera shows drones targeting and destroying enemy equipment, potentially in the Smolensk region. Video evidence shows a residential building at night, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows an urban environment at night with a plume of smoke, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a nighttime scene with a fire or explosion, potentially in Smolensk. Video evidence shows a nighttime cityscape with a bright aerial object followed by a streak in the sky, potentially a missile launch or inbound munition near Smolensk. Video evidence shows a quiet urban scene at night, potentially near Smolensk.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: An oil depot near an airfield with strategic bombers in Engels, Russia, has been burning for three days after a drone attack.
Drone Activity: 2 drones are reported to be heading towards/through Pervomaisk. 1 drone is reported to be flying from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriia. 1 drone is reported to be north of Cherkasy, moving west. 4 drones are circling the Okhtyrka area. Cherkasy Oblast is under threat of a drone attack. A Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast. A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south. Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest. Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk. Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south. Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts. A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr. A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv. A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west. A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west. A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south. A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south. A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south. A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia. A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region. Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast. One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast. One drone is approaching Zhytomyr. New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi. Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary and are likely to turn towards Izmail. One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region. Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region. A drone is circling near Starokonstantinov. 12 drones from the Black Sea are flying towards Tatarbunary and then towards the Izmail district. Groups of attack drones are reported on Sumy Oblast, with most on the south of the oblast, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast. There are reports of drone attacks in the Rostov region. More than 30 drones were reportedly involved, with over 10 shot down. In total, 9 drones were destroyed. A "Moped" (Shahed-type drone) was reported over Kamensk. Drones are flying from the territory of the "DPR" towards the Kamensky district from 21:45. In total, there are more than 30 drones. More than 10 drones have been shot down. Zhytomyr Oblast is under threat of a drone attack from the northeast. A Russian drone is reported to be approaching Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast) from the east.
Air Defense Engagements: Debris from one of the downed drones damaged several houses in Voznesensk. Operators of the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces successfully targeted and eliminated 2 Zala and 3 Supercam Russian reconnaissance UAVs. 5 Russian reconnaissance drones have been shot down. The drones were reportedly shot down by the "OMEGA" Central Special Forces. In the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, drone debris caused minor damage to a building's facade, with no reported casualties. Drone debris fell in the Dniprovskyi district of Kyiv, causing minor damage to a building's facade. Air defense forces are actively responding to a missile attack in Belgorod, with multiple explosions reported in the sky above the Belgorod region.
Drone Attack on Tula Oblast: The Tula region is reportedly under a massive attack by Ukrainian drones. Air defenses are active, and preliminary reports indicate that aerial targets have been destroyed. There are no reports of casualties. The new messages detail a battle in Tula Oblast, with the Russian army repelling an enemy attack in Aleksin. 17 drones have been confirmed to have been shot down over Tula Oblast, according to the regional governor. A fire broke out in a military hospital in Tula, Russia, with reports of 57 people evacuated.
Drone Attack on Kazan Confirmed: A drone attack on Kazan has been confirmed, with reports of a large fire near the "Kazan Orgsintez" plant. The plant is a major producer of high-strength plastics. The attack reportedly targeted a liquefied gas base.
Report of Ukrainian drone attack on "Turkish Stream" infrastructure: The "Diary of the Paratrooper" Telegram channel reports that Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack the "Turkish Stream" gas pipeline infrastructure in Anapa and Novorossiysk with drones.
Tambov and Voronezh: Drones attacked a fuel depot and a gunpowder factory in the Tambov and Voronezh regions overnight.
27 Drones Destroyed: The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that 27 Ukrainian drones were shot down overnight.
Drone attack on Poltava region: Russian forces attacked the Poltava region overnight using drones. The falling debris from the downed drones damaged energy infrastructure. 301 households and 22 legal consumers are currently without power.
Romanian Observation: Romanian observers reportedly witnessed a "Geranium" drone strike on Ukrainian infrastructure in the Odesa region.
Reports of alarm at the "Taneko" oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, with workers being evacuated.
Video evidence of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, Tatarstan.
Ukrainian forces used drones to attack oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov.
Ukrainian drones attacked an oil refinery in Almetyevsk, causing a fire. Three fuel tanks are reportedly on fire.
Russian air defense is reportedly active in Anapa, with the city's alert system activated.
Reports of explosions and fires in several Russian regions, including Novorossiysk, Anapa, and near Yevpatoria in Crimea.
Video footage shows the aftermath of a Ukrainian drone strike on a Russian soldier, with graphic imagery of the soldier's injuries. The video is being used for propaganda purposes by Ukrainian forces.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone targeting a Russian position in Engels. The video claims that the drone successfully hit the target, causing a fire.
Drone Attack on Almetyevsk: Ukrainian drones attacked the Almetyevsk head oil pumping station of "Transneft".
Night footage of the destruction of two heavy Baba Yaga-type strike drones by soldiers of the 18th Army in the Kherson direction.
In Kyiv, debris from a downed drone fell into a reservoir in the Dniprovsky district.
In Sumy, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast. The city of Sumy is under threat from a drone approaching from the south.
In Kryvyi Rih, an enemy drone is approaching from the north.
In the Klimovsky district, Bryansk region, there were reports of drone attacks on residential buildings and vehicles.
A new group of enemy drones is heading towards Mykolaiv region from the Black Sea.
In Kharkiv, an enemy drone is approaching from the northeast.
Two drones are flying over the city of Mykolaiv.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south.
Video evidence shows the moment of today's drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, Kursk, Zaporizhzhia, Crimea, Voronezh, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a drone in Sumy region, heading south.
Video evidence shows the moment of today's drone arrivals at an oil depot in the Voronezh region.
New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
There are reports of drones in various districts, including Belotserkovsky, Akhtyrka, Kupyansky, and Berislavsky.
New reports indicate 5 drones are flying past Bashtanka towards the Voznesensky district, 1 drone flew past Kryvyi Rih into the Kirovohrad region, 1 drone over Kropyvnytskyi, 2 drones in the Kamensky area, 7 drones in the Kremenchug district in a northwesterly direction, 4 drones circling in the Kupyansk area, 2 drones north of Lozova, Kharkiv region, in a westerly direction, 3 drones heading towards/through Nizhyn, 3 drones from Sumy region flying to Chernihiv region, 1 drone in the north of Poltava region in a westerly direction, 1 new drone from the Black Sea in the direction of Fontanka.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that enemy drones are moving in the Mykolaiv region from the south.
There are reports of two drones flying over the city of Mykolaiv.
There are also reports of two drones approaching the city of Mykolaiv from the direction of Bolshaya Korenikha.
The city of Chernomorsk and the city of Odessa are under threat from an enemy drone approaching from the south.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the following drone movements: south of Sumy Oblast (westward course), west and southeast of Chernihiv Oblast (west/southwest course), center of Poltava Oblast (northeast course), west of Kirovohrad Oblast (south course), north and southeast of Kyiv Oblast (west/south course), north of Donetsk Oblast (west/east course), and Odesa Oblast (east course, towards Chornomorsk).
1 drone is reported south of Uman, 2 in the north of Kyiv Oblast (westward course), 3 passing through Pereiaslav (southwest course), 1 moving from Kharkiv to Poltava Oblast, and 1 moving from Sumy to Chernihiv Oblast.
2 drones are reported to be heading towards/through Pervomaisk.
1 drone is reported to be flying from Dnipropetrovsk region towards Oleksandriia.
1 drone is reported to be north of Cherkasy, moving west.
4 drones are circling the Okhtyrka area.
Cherkasy Oblast is under threat of a drone attack.
A Russian drone is moving in the direction of Myrhorod from the northeast.
A drone is also reported in the Shyshaky area (Poltava region), moving south.
Drones on the borders of Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava oblasts, moving southwest.
Drones in southeastern Poltava towards Dnipropetrovsk.
Drones in the north and south of Kharkiv region, heading south.
Drone threat for Rivne, Khmelnytskyi, and Zhytomyr oblasts.
A drone is reported on the border of Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions, heading towards Zhytomyr.
A drone is reported from Sumy towards Chernihiv.
A drone is reported in the north of Poltava heading west.
A drone is reported in the east of Kyiv heading west.
A drone is reported in the south of Poltava heading south.
A drone is reported in central Kharkiv heading south.
A drone is reported in Dnipropetrovsk heading south.
A drone is reported in the north of Zaporizhzhia heading towards the city of Zaporizhzhia.
A drone was reported to be flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk.
A drone was reported to be approaching Starokonstantinov in the Khmelnytskyi region.
Two drones are circling in the north of Poltava Oblast.
One drone is circling in the south of Vinnytsia Oblast.
One drone is approaching Zhytomyr.
New drones are detected in the Black Sea, moving towards Bilhorod-Dnistrovskyi district, Odesa Oblast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a group of attack drones moving from the Black Sea towards Odesa Oblast.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of attack drones in the Ternopil region from Khmelnytskyi.
Seven drones are reported to be moving from the Black Sea towards Tatarbunary and are likely to turn towards Izmail.
One drone is reported to be moving from the Khmelnytskyi region to the Ternopil region.
Two drones are still circling in the north of the Poltava region.
A drone is circling near Starokonstantinov.
12 drones from the Black Sea are flying towards Tatarbunary and then towards the Izmail district.
Groups of attack drones are reported on Sumy Oblast, with most on the south of the oblast, moving towards Kharkiv Oblast.
There are reports of drone attacks in the Rostov region.
More than 30 drones were reportedly involved, with over 10 shot down.
In total, 9 drones were destroyed.
A "Moped" (Shahed-type drone) was reported over Kamensk.
Drones are flying from the territory of the "DPR" towards the Kamensky district from 21:45.
In total, there are more than 30 drones.
More than 10 drones have been shot down.
Zhytomyr Oblast is under threat of a drone attack from the northeast.
A Russian drone is reported to be approaching Bila Tserkva (Kyiv Oblast) from the east.
The "Zapad" Grouping of Russian forces destroyed three Starlink satellite communication stations and 13 Ukrainian drone control points in one day.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that nine Ukrainian drones were shot down over the Rostov region.
Russian forces targeted the city of Mykolaiv with 7 "Shahed" drones, causing damage to apartment buildings and fires. There are two reported injuries, and one woman was pulled from the rubble.
Russian reconnaissance reportedly tracked their opponents using drones and destroyed their control point in the Kharkiv region near Kupiansk.

Missile Attacks

Explosions in Kyiv: Missile strikes have caused fires and damage in Kyiv's Shevchenkivskyi and Desnianskyi districts, resulting in at least four deaths and several injuries. The Lukianivska metro station has been closed due to damage.
Explosions in Kryvyi Rih: Reports indicate a series of missile strikes targeting Kryvyi Rih, with the number of wounded rising to 5. A Danish F-16 pilot instructor was killed in a missile strike on Kryvyi Rih. A rocket hit a bomb shelter during an attack on an aviation college in Kryvyi Rih.
Explosions in Zaporizhzhia: Explosions have been reported in Zaporizhzhia, with an infrastructure object reportedly hit. The number of wounded has risen to 10. An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region, with reports of a high-speed target in the area.
Nationwide Missile Threat: Ukrainian Air Force reports a nationwide ballistic missile threat, with X-22 missiles flying through the Kharkiv region towards the Dnipropetrovsk region and a threat of ballistic missiles from the Voronezh and Belgorod regions. Kalibr missiles have been launched from the Anapa area.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports a missile threat in areas where an air raid alert has been declared.
- Ballistic missiles continue their movement south in the Kharkiv region.
- Enemy bombers are approaching the launch lines.
- The Ukrainian Air Force reports ballistic missiles from the Belgorod region towards the Kharkiv region.
- There is a threat of ballistic missiles from the Belgorod and Voronezh regions.
- A group of missiles is reported in the Sumy region, moving southwest.
- Pryluki is under threat.
- Ballistic missiles are reported to be heading towards Pryluki.
- X-101 missiles are reported in the north.
- A missile is reported to be heading from the south towards Kryvyi Rih.
- Several Kalibr missiles are flying towards Novyi Buh/Kazanka, likely further into the Kirovohrad region.

Changes compared to the previous 6 hours

Donetsk Region: Continued fighting in Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Velyka Novosilka. New reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka. Continued fighting in Zverevo. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have defeated Ukrainian HIMARS in the Krasnoarmeysk direction. The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been completely cleared. Russian forces have liberated the settlement of Volkovo in the DPR. New reports indicate that Russian assault units have captured the center of Velyka Novosilka, and Ukrainian forces have reportedly retreated from the settlement. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters. Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west. Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat.
Kursk Region: Continued Russian advances and new video evidence of fighting. Reports of Ukrainian drone strikes and casualties. A new Russian attack near Nikolskoye resulted in an advance of over 1.5 km. Video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers raising a flag in Nikolayevo-Daryino. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows the work of anti-tank marines in Kurshina, taking out three enemy tanks and four BMD-4 units.
Luhansk Region: Further Russian advances reported. The Russian army is expanding its bridgeheads on the right bank of the Zherebets River in Ivanovka and on the right bank of the Oskol River in Dvurichna. Russian units are also advancing near Terny on the left bank of the Zherebets. The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that units of the "West" group have liberated Novoyehorivka in the LPR. Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR).
Kharkiv Region: New report of a threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack on Borova. The Ukrainian Air Force reports repeat launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region. A Russian drone, likely a "Molniya", reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv. One person was injured. One drone is approaching Balakliia. The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Kharkiv is under threat from a Russian drone approaching from the northeast. A new group of Russian drones is reported in the east of Kharkiv Oblast, with a west/southwest course. New drone groups are reported on the east and in the central part of the Kharkiv region, with a western/southwestern course. Russian forces launched guided aerial bombs on the north of Kharkiv Oblast. A guided aerial bomb (KAB) was reported in the direction of Staryi Saltiv (Kharkiv Oblast). Video evidence shows a Russian FPV drone destroying a Ukrainian temporary deployment point in the Kupyansk direction.
Drone Warfare: Continued widespread drone activity, with new reports of drones in various regions. New reports on the movement of "Shahed" drones. Smolensk is under a sustained drone attack, with multiple explosions reported and air defenses active. New reports of a series of explosions, power and water outages, and a fire at a military factory in Smolensk. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. There are reports of one drone

Situation Report