Archived operational intelligence briefing
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. Russian forces have achieved substantial gains, notably the complete encirclement of Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka and advances near Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. In Velyka Novosilka, Russian forces have taken control of the right-bank part of the city and are advancing towards the center. Video evidence confirms the beginning of the liberation of Velyka Novosilka by the "Vostok" group. The raising of the Russian flag in the center of the settlement signifies a major symbolic victory.
A massive drone attack targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Russian air defenses reportedly intercepted and destroyed 121 Ukrainian drones. The attack caused disruption and damage to critical infrastructure, such as the oil refinery near Ryazan and industrial facilities in Bryansk and Engels. The Ryazan oil refinery has been confirmed as a target of the drone attack. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station. Airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara have introduced restrictions, further indicating the widespread impact of the drone campaign.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets.
Velyka Novosilka: The city is now completely cut in two, with Ukrainian forces in the southern part fully encircled. Russian forces have reached the Ukrainian street from Pervomaiskaya street and are fighting between Shkolnaya and Gagarina streets. Russian forces hold positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers. The escape route for Ukrainian forces is not physically blocked but is under fire control and limited by the Mokrye Yaly river. Video evidence shows multiple explosions in a rural area near the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault. Video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room. The city is reportedly in a "semi-encirclement." After the occupation of Neskuchne and Vremivka, the enemy has concentrated its attention on the village in recent days and has launched active assault operations to capture it.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces are approaching the western outskirts of the city from the north side of the railway, indicating significant progress in their offensive. There are ongoing штурмовые actions by Russian troops, and tactical successes. Video evidence shows the 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar. Heavy fighting continues, with Russian forces reportedly seizing the initiative and pushing Ukrainian troops back. South of the Novyi microdistrict in the forest area on the territory of the Mir and Bunker children's camp, Russian forces dislodged the enemy from the buildings and eliminated an enemy group. Russian forces cleared the forest area and advanced another 800 meters. Near the Dniprovskyi pond in Chasov Yar, Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions. Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk): Russian troops are advancing towards the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka road near the interchange and Baranovka. Southwest of Pokrovsk, Russian forces continue their efforts to encircle the city, with heavy fighting reported near Kotlyno. Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having reportedly reached the outskirts and are now less than 10 kilometers from the city. "Otvazhnye" forces are reportedly continuing their offensive towards Pokrovsk, destroying NATO equipment and Ukrainian infantry. Russian forces are engaged in active combat operations near Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk), with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
Kurakhove: Northeast of the liberated Kurakhove, Russian forces are conducting raids near Andriivka. To the west and northwest, Russian forces are applying pressure, but their activity has decreased in the past few days, likely due to rotations and regrouping. Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area. Russian assault units reportedly captured new positions north of the Kurakhove sludge dumps, advancing 1.5 km west along the Dachne - Yantarne line.
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing. Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
Kramatorsk: The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight. Power outages are also reported, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city. Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
Other: Explosions were reported in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, with at least ten explosions counted. A loud drone sound was also reported. Another explosion was reported in Lidiivka (Donetsk region), with windows blown out in one house. The defense operation in Novovasylivka has ended, and the village is now occupied by Russian forces.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have advanced towards Sverdlikovo and cleared several forest belts near Kurilovka, demonstrating continued progress in the region. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000. The intensity of the fighting is being compared to the battles of Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Russian forces have liberated several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino, and are advancing in the Sudzha area, reaching the outskirts of Kositsa.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops. Electronic warfare specialists are also active, detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs. Video evidence shows a drone operator of the Russian Guard destroying a Ukrainian 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces report shooting down a Russian drone in the Kursk region.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed. Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier. Western officials cited by the BBC report that about 1,000 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region while fighting against Ukraine. As of mid-January, North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region reportedly suffered around 4,000 casualties, including both killed and wounded.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of attack drones in the western and central parts of Kharkiv region, heading west.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community. Explosions are reported in the Kharkiv area, likely outside the city.
Russian Advance: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly reduced the distance to Ukrainian positions in Petrovske (Hrekivka) to 2km.
Kupiansk: is under renewed heavy shelling, with deteriorating security conditions. Several dozen civilians reportedly remain in the frontline zone near Kupyansk.
Guided Aerial Bombs: have been launched towards Zolochiv.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area and moving towards Hrekivka. Russian assault teams have advanced in Petropavlivka, destroying several Ukrainian strongholds.
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
Massive Drone Attacks: A massive drone attack targeted multiple regions in Russia, including Moscow, Tula, Rostov, Lipetsk, Bryansk, Kursk, Saratov, Ryazan, Belgorod, and Crimea. Ukrainian sources suggest the number could be as high as 150-180, calling it the most massive drone attack since the beginning of the war.
Ryazan Oil Refinery: A fire continues at an oil refinery near Ryazan following a drone attack. The attack is also reported to have targeted the nearby Novo-Ryazanskaya thermal power plant.
Kremniy Plant (Bryansk): Ukrainian drones attacked the "Kremniy" plant in Bryansk. This marks the fourth attack on the plant. The plant produces microelectronics for various weapons, including "Pantsir" air defense systems, "Iskander" missiles, radar systems, electronic warfare systems, and Russian drones.
Engels Oil Refinery: An oil refinery in Engels was also targeted by drones, with locals reporting at least seven explosions in the sky.
Lviv Region: Reports indicate drone activity in the Lviv region, with Ukrainian air defenses engaged. The threat of enemy drones in the region has been declared over.
Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara Airports: Temporary restrictions on the reception and release of aircraft were introduced at the airports in Ufa, Penza, Saratov, Ulyanovsk, and Samara. These restrictions have now been lifted.
Zhytomyr Region: Explosions were reported in the Zhytomyr region.
Kyiv Region: During the night, Russian forces attacked the Kyiv region with drones, resulting in the deaths of two people in a private home that caught fire from falling debris. Another attack in a different area caused a fire in an apartment building, killing one person.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Ukrainian air defenses shot down 60 out of 94 drones overnight, with 34 classified as decoys. Ukrainian air defenses report shooting down 78 out of 110 drones launched by Russian forces overnight. 31 drones were classified as "decoys" and did not reach their targets. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 4 "Shahed" drones over Mykolaiv Oblast overnight. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down 2 drones over Dnipropetrovsk Oblast overnight.
Drone Attack on Compressor Station: The Russian Ministry of Defense claims Ukrainian drones attacked the "Russkaya" compressor station, which supplies
The new messages add further details to the ongoing drone warfare, with a confirmed attack on civilian homes in the Chernihiv region. This reinforces the pattern of drone attacks targeting civilian infrastructure. Trump's latest statements add another layer to the geopolitical dimension of the conflict, suggesting a potential shift in US policy if he is re-elected. However, the Kremlin's reported dismissal of these threats indicates that Russia is not likely to be swayed by such rhetoric. The overall strategic situation remains largely unchanged, with intense fighting continuing in the Donetsk region and widespread drone attacks across multiple regions. The situation is further complicated by the involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region and the ongoing diplomatic maneuvering.
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