Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 00:38 UTC

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Encirclement is confirmed as complete. All roads are under Russian fire control. The situation for Ukrainian forces is dire, with reports indicating that the only way in or out is on foot. The garrison is effectively cut in half, with Russian forces controlling positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces continue to advance, now within 10 kilometers of the city. Reports of success in Kotlyno and Udachny indicate a plan to cover the city from the southwest. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the loss of the city, but the situation is deteriorating. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement.
• Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues with Russian forces making significant advances. They have reportedly captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
• Kurakhove: Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are reportedly collapsing.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Heavy losses for Ukrainian forces are reported, with a 10-kilometer Russian breakthrough. Russian forces have liberated several settlements. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine.
• Drone Warfare: Continued reports of drone attacks in the region. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle.
• Commissions to Assess Destruction: Commissions are beginning work to assess the destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian drones are targeting regions deep inside Russia, including Moscow, Ryazan, Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.
• Ryazan: Confirmed damage to the oil refinery and a residential building following drone attacks. The situation at the Ryazan oil refinery is reportedly "under control." Multiple videos show fires and explosions at the refinery.
• Moscow Region: Confirmed reports of drone attacks, with several drones shot down. Airports have implemented restrictions, but these have now been lifted. The threat of an aerial attack has been lifted in Ramenskoye, near Moscow.
• Saratov Region: An air alert has been declared due to the threat of drone attacks. Drones are reportedly attacking Engels.
• Bryansk: Reports of an attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory, which produces components for the Russian military-industrial complex. A video purports to show the attack.
• Ukrainian Drone Movements: Several groups of Shahed drones are moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region. Drones are moving through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region. New groups of drones are reported to be moving from the south, through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone is reported on the south of Poltava region, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk region. Shahed drones are reported to be moving through Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region. Several groups of "Shahed" drones are heading from Chernihiv region towards Brovary/Kyiv. A drone is approaching Brovary. A drone is flying from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Uman Raion, Cherkasy Oblast. Three drones are flying north of Cherkasy towards the southwest. A drone has flown past Kyiv towards Fastiv. A drone is circling east of Brovary. A drone is flying from Chernihiv Oblast towards Brovary. Two drones are flying towards or through Chernihiv.
• Air Raid Alerts in Ukraine: A map shows air raid alerts across most of central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, including Kyiv. An air raid alert has been declared in Kyiv due to the threat of drones.

Changes brought by new messages

• Drone Operations in the Donetsk Region: Operators from the 9th Brigade of the 51st Guards Army successfully destroyed a Ukrainian tank and a pickup truck with personnel using drones.
• Explosions in Kyiv: Explosions were heard in Kyiv.
• Engels Under Drone Attack: The city of Engels is reportedly under drone attack, with air defense systems in operation.
• Drone Movements: A drone is approaching Brovary. A drone is flying from Kirovohrad Oblast towards Uman Raion, Cherkasy Oblast. Three drones are flying north of Cherkasy towards the southwest. A drone has flown past Kyiv towards Fastiv. A drone is circling east of Brovary. A drone is flying from Chernihiv Oblast towards Brovary. Two drones are flying towards or through Chernihiv. Three drones flew past Novyi Buh towards Kirovohrad Oblast.
• Chinese Position on Ukraine: China has reiterated its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, as stated by the press secretary of the Chinese Embassy in the US, Liu Pengyu, in response to Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict.
• "Kremniy El" Factory in Bryansk Reportedly Hit: Reports indicate that the "Kremniy El" factory in Bryansk was hit by a drone attack, with video footage of the incident circulating online.
• Oil Depot in Engels Under Attack: Reports suggest that drones are again attacking the oil depot in Engels.
• Saratov Under Alert: The city of Saratov is reportedly on high alert.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be characterized by intense fighting and escalating drone warfare. Russian forces are making substantial advances in the Donetsk region, with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka now complete and a continued push towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces inflicting heavy losses and regaining territory.

Ukrainian drone attacks continue to target regions deep inside Russia, including Moscow, Ryazan, Bryansk, Kursk, Belgorod, Engels, and Saratov. The attacks on Ryazan, with confirmed damage to the oil refinery and a residential building, demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike deep inside Russian territory and target strategic assets. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, although with reports of significant casualties, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The new reports of drone attacks in Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, Engels, and even the Moscow region indicate a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone warfare capabilities and a potential shift in strategy to target locations deeper inside Russia. The confirmation of drone attacks in the Moscow region, along with restrictions at major airports, represents a significant escalation and demonstrates the expanding reach of Ukrainian drone warfare. The fire at the Ryazan oil refinery and reports of attacks in the Bryansk and Engels regions further emphasize the widespread nature of the drone campaign.

The new reports of drone movements towards Brovary, Uman, Cherkasy, Fastiv, and Chernihiv indicate continued and potentially imminent threats to these areas. The air raid alerts across most of Ukraine, including Kyiv, underscore the widespread threat of air attacks. The reported attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk, which produces components for the Russian military-industrial complex, highlights Ukraine's continued efforts to target strategic assets deep inside Russia.

The successful use of drones by Russian forces in the Donetsk region to destroy a Ukrainian tank and a pickup truck with personnel demonstrates the continued importance of drone warfare on the battlefield. The explosions heard in Kyiv and the reported drone attack on Engels further highlight the intensification of the conflict and the widespread use of drones by both sides. China's reiteration of its position in favor of dialogue on Ukraine, in response to Trump's comments, adds another dimension to the geopolitical landscape surrounding the conflict.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Secure Velyka Novosilka: The situation in Velyka Novosilka is critical. Focus on evacuating remaining troops and civilians if possible. Conduct rearguard actions to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas currently under air raid alerts, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Dnipropetrovsk, Engels, and Saratov regions.
5. Improve Ammunition Quality Control: Address the reported issues with the consistency and quality of Russian artillery ammunition. Implement stricter quality control measures and improve storage conditions to ensure the effectiveness of artillery operations.
6. Verify Intelligence on Putin's Motorcade: Investigate the claim of Ukrainian drones targeting Putin's motorcade. If true, assess the implications for the security of high-value targets and adjust security protocols accordingly.
7. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems, to counter Russian advances and drone attacks.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Address the claim of Ukrainian drones targeting Putin's motorcade, either confirming or debunking it with credible information.
9. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
10. Address Drone Threat in Saratov and Engels Regions: Given the declared air alerts and reported drone attacks in the Saratov and Engels regions, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones. Protect critical infrastructure and population centers in these regions.
11. Protect Kyiv from Drone Attacks: Given the air alert in Kyiv and the reported movement of Shahed drones towards the city, strengthen air defenses around the capital. Deploy additional air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat. Ensure the safety of civilians and critical infrastructure.
12. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Uman, Fastiv, and Brovary regions. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
13. Assess and Mitigate Damage in Ryazan and Bryansk: Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to the Ryazan oil refinery, the residential building, and the "Kremniy El" factory in Bryansk. Provide assistance to affected civilians and repair critical infrastructure. Enhance air defenses in these regions to prevent further attacks.
14. Investigate Attacks on Bryansk and Engels: Conduct thorough investigations of the reported attacks on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk and the oil depot in Engels. Assess the damage to these facilities and their impact on the production of components for the Russian military-industrial complex and fuel supplies. Enhance security at similar facilities to prevent future attacks.
15. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support. Counter calls for halting arms supplies to Ukraine by highlighting the importance of continued support for Ukrainian defense. Engage with China to encourage them to play a more active role in promoting a peaceful resolution to the conflict, while also addressing their concerns about the situation.
16. Protect Brovary, Uman, Cherkasy, and Fastiv: Given the reported drone movements towards these areas, deploy additional air defense systems and alert local authorities to the potential threat. Ensure that early warning systems are operational and that civilians are aware of the necessary safety precautions.
17. Counter Drone Operations in Donetsk Region: Develop and implement counter-drone strategies to mitigate the threat posed by Russian drones, such as the ones used by the 9th Brigade of the 51st Guards Army. This could involve deploying electronic warfare systems, training troops in counter-drone tactics, and improving intelligence gathering on drone operations.
18. Address Air Threat in Ramenskoye: Although the air threat in Ramenskoye has been lifted, maintain a state of readiness and continue to monitor the situation closely. Ensure that air defense systems are operational and prepared to respond to any future threats.
19. Verify and Respond to Explosions in Kyiv: Investigate the reports of explosions in Kyiv and determine their cause. If confirmed as attacks, assess the damage and provide assistance to any affected civilians. Enhance security measures and air defenses in the capital to prevent further attacks.
20. Engage with China on Ukrainian Conflict: Following Trump's comments on expecting Beijing's assistance in resolving the Ukrainian conflict, engage with Chinese officials to explore potential avenues for cooperation. Emphasize the importance of a peaceful resolution and encourage China to use its influence to promote dialogue between the warring parties.