Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 24, 2025, 00:08 UTC

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Velyka Novosilka: Encirclement is confirmed as complete. All roads are under Russian fire control. The situation for Ukrainian forces is dire, with reports indicating that the only way in or out is on foot. The garrison is effectively cut in half, with Russian forces controlling positions along the banks of the Mokrye Yaly and Kashlagach rivers.
• Pokrovsk: Russian forces continue to advance, now within 10 kilometers of the city. Reports of success in Kotlyno and Udachny indicate a plan to cover the city from the southwest. Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the loss of the city, but the situation is deteriorating. The speaker of the operational-strategic group "Khortytsia" denies the city is under threat of encirclement.
• Chasiv Yar: Heavy fighting continues with Russian forces making significant advances. They have reportedly captured about half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district and are fighting in the Severnyi district. Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
• Kurakhove: Active combat operations are reported, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Clashes were reported near Vremivka, Kostyantynopil, and Velyka Novosilka.
• Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are reportedly collapsing.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Heavy losses for Ukrainian forces are reported, with a 10-kilometer Russian breakthrough. Russian forces have liberated several settlements. There are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces will attempt to hold their portion of the Kursk region for 100 days. About 1,000 North Korean soldiers have reportedly been killed in the region while fighting against Ukraine.
• Drone Warfare: Continued reports of drone attacks in the region. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle.
• Commissions to Assess Destruction: Commissions are beginning work to assess the destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

Kharkiv Region

• Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
• Explosions: Reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian drones are targeting regions deep inside Russia, including Moscow, Ryazan, Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod.
• Ryazan: Confirmed damage to the oil refinery and a residential building following drone attacks. The situation at the Ryazan oil refinery is reportedly "under control." Multiple videos show fires and explosions at the refinery.
• Moscow Region: Confirmed reports of drone attacks, with several drones shot down. Airports have implemented restrictions, but these have now been lifted.
• Saratov Region: An air alert has been declared due to the threat of drone attacks.
• Bryansk: Reports of an attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory, which produces components for the Russian military-industrial complex.
• Ukrainian Drone Movements: Several groups of Shahed drones are moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region. Drones are moving through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region. New groups of drones are reported to be moving from the south, through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast. A drone is reported on the south of Poltava region, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk region. Shahed drones are reported to be moving through Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region. Several groups of "Shahed" drones are heading from Chernihiv region towards Brovary/Kyiv.
• Air Raid Alerts in Ukraine: A map shows air raid alerts across most of central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, including Kyiv.

Changes brought by new messages

• Ryazan Oil Refinery Damage Confirmed: Reports confirm damage to the Ryazan oil refinery following drone attacks, with multiple videos showing fires and explosions at the facility. The governor of the Ryazan region, Pavel Malkov, confirmed a fire in a private house due to the drone attack but did not mention the oil refinery.
• Residential Building Hit in Ryazan: A residential building was also struck by a drone in Ryazan, as confirmed by the governor.
• Multiple Drones Downed: Several drones were shot down in the Moscow region, as well as in Ryazan, Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod regions.
• Explosion in Myrhorod, Ukraine: An explosion was reported in the Ukrainian city of Myrhorod.
• Vnukovo Airport Restrictions Lifted: Moscow's Vnukovo, Domodedovo, and Zhukovsky airports have lifted temporary flight restrictions.
• Drone Shot Down in Shcholkovo: Reports of another drone being shot down in the Shcholkovo urban district near Moscow.
• Artillery Ammunition Concerns: Reports from Russian artillery units highlight issues with the consistency and quality of artillery ammunition, including problems with weight variation, faulty fuses, and inadequate storage conditions. These issues are reportedly affecting accuracy and effectiveness.
• New Drone Movements: A drone is reported on the south of Poltava region, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk region. Shahed drones are reported to be moving through Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region. Several groups of "Shahed" drones are heading from Chernihiv region towards Brovary/Kyiv.
• Bryansk Microelectronics Factory Attacked: Reports indicate an attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk, which produces components for the Russian military-industrial complex. A video purports to show the attack.
• Call for Arms Halt to Ukraine: American journalist Jackson Hinkle suggests that Trump should stop arms supplies to Ukraine and let Russia "deal with what's left" of the country.
• Claim of Ukrainian Drones Targeting Putin's Motorcade: A message from the Telegram channel "Радар Россия" claims that Ukrainian drones targeted Russian President Vladimir Putin's motorcade in the Moscow region. This claim is unverified and should be treated with caution.
• Air Raid Alerts Across Ukraine: A map shows air raid alerts across most of central, eastern, and southern Ukraine, including Kyiv, indicating a heightened threat of air attacks.
• Threat of Drone Attacks in Saratov Region: An air alert has been declared in the Saratov region of Russia due to the threat of drone attacks.
• Kyiv Under Air Alert: An air alert has been declared in Kyiv due to the threat of "Shahed" drones.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making substantial advances in the Donetsk region, with the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka now complete and a continued push towards Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces inflicting heavy losses and regaining territory.

The most significant development is the major escalation in drone warfare. Ukrainian drones are now regularly targeting regions deep inside Russia, including Moscow, Ryazan, Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod. The attacks on Ryazan, with confirmed damage to the oil refinery and a residential building, demonstrate Ukraine's capability to strike deep inside Russian territory and target strategic assets. The ongoing attacks and air defense activity across multiple regions suggest a sustained campaign aimed at disrupting Russian logistics and military operations. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, although with reports of significant casualties, adds another layer of complexity to the conflict.

The new reports of drone attacks in Ryazan, Kursk, Belgorod, Bryansk, and even the Moscow region indicate a significant escalation in Ukrainian drone warfare capabilities and a potential shift in strategy to target locations deeper inside Russia. The attacks on residential areas, as reported in Ryazan and Kursk, highlight the potential for civilian casualties and the need for enhanced air defense measures. The closure and subsequent reopening of airports in the Moscow region indicates the seriousness of the drone threat and the potential for disruption to air travel and logistics. The confirmation of drone attacks in the Moscow region, along with restrictions at major airports, represents a significant escalation and demonstrates the expanding reach of Ukrainian drone warfare. The fire at the Ryazan oil refinery and reports of attacks in the Bryansk region further emphasize the widespread nature of the drone campaign.

The new reports of several groups of Shahed drones moving from Poltava region towards Cherkasy region, through the north of Cherkasy region towards Kyiv region, and from Chernihiv region towards Brovary/Kyiv, indicate a continued and potentially imminent threat to these areas. The new report of drones moving from the south through Kherson Oblast towards Mykolaiv Oblast indicates a potential threat to this area. The report of a yellow level of air danger in Lipetsk Oblast suggests that this area is also under threat. The continuation of night attacks with "Geranium" drones, with confirmed hits in Chernihiv, Khmelnytsky, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava regions, further demonstrates the widespread and persistent threat of drone warfare. The reported attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk, which produces components for the Russian military-industrial complex, highlights Ukraine's continued efforts to target strategic assets deep inside Russia. The reported movement of Shahed drones through Mykolaiv region towards Kirovohrad region indicates a potential threat to this area. The new report of a drone on the south of Poltava region, heading towards Dnipropetrovsk region, indicates a potential threat to this area. The air raid alerts across most of Ukraine, including Kyiv, underscore the widespread threat of air attacks.

The reports from Russian artillery units regarding issues with ammunition quality and consistency raise concerns about the effectiveness of Russian artillery operations. The unverified claim of Ukrainian drones targeting Putin's motorcade, while highly significant if true, should be treated with caution due to the potential for misinformation. The call by an American journalist for Trump to halt arms supplies to Ukraine adds another element to the geopolitical landscape.

Recommendations

1. Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of these cities to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
2. Secure Velyka Novosilka: The situation in Velyka Novosilka is critical. Focus on evacuating remaining troops and civilians if possible. Conduct rearguard actions to slow the Russian advance and inflict maximum casualties.
3. Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and electronic warfare capabilities to neutralize Russian drones, particularly in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Kharkiv regions. Prioritize the protection of critical infrastructure and military assets.
4. Strengthen Air Defenses: Deploy additional air defense systems, including short-range and medium-range systems, to protect cities and critical infrastructure from drone and missile attacks. Focus on areas currently under air raid alerts, including Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Kirovohrad, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
5. Improve Ammunition Quality Control: Address the reported issues with the consistency and quality of Russian artillery ammunition. Implement stricter quality control measures and improve storage conditions to ensure the effectiveness of artillery operations.
6. Verify Intelligence on Putin's Motorcade: Investigate the claim of Ukrainian drones targeting Putin's motorcade. If true, assess the implications for the security of high-value targets and adjust security protocols accordingly.
7. International Support: Continue to engage with international partners, particularly the US and EU, to secure additional military and financial aid. Emphasize the need for advanced weaponry, including long-range strike capabilities and air defense systems, to counter Russian advances and drone attacks.
8. Information Warfare: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda campaigns by providing accurate and timely information about the situation on the ground. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Address the claim of Ukrainian drones targeting Putin's motorcade, either confirming or debunking it with credible information.
9. Prepare for Protracted Conflict: Given the continued Russian advances and the escalation in drone warfare, prepare for a potentially protracted conflict. Focus on building a sustainable defense industry, securing long-term military and financial aid, and developing strategies to counter Russian tactics.
10. Address Drone Threat in Saratov Region: Given the declared air alert in the Saratov region, deploy air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones. Protect critical infrastructure and population centers in the region.
11. Protect Kyiv from Drone Attacks: Given the air alert in Kyiv and the reported movement of Shahed drones towards the city, strengthen air defenses around the capital. Deploy additional air defense systems and utilize electronic warfare to counter the drone threat. Ensure the safety of civilians and critical infrastructure.
12. Monitor and Respond to Drone Movements: Continuously monitor drone movements, particularly the reported movements in Poltava, Cherkasy, Kherson, Mykolaiv, Kirovohrad, Chernihiv, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Deploy rapid response units to intercept drones and protect vulnerable areas.
13. Assess and Mitigate Damage in Ryazan: Conduct a thorough assessment of the damage to the Ryazan oil refinery and the residential building. Provide assistance to affected civilians and repair critical infrastructure. Enhance air defenses in the region to prevent further attacks.
14. Investigate Attack on Bryansk Microelectronics Factory: Conduct a thorough investigation of the reported attack on the "Kremniy El" microelectronics factory in Bryansk. Assess the damage to the facility and its impact on the production of components for the Russian military-industrial complex. Enhance security at similar facilities to prevent future attacks.
15. Geopolitical Strategy: Develop a diplomatic strategy to address the potential shift in US policy under Trump, particularly regarding aid to Ukraine. Engage with other international partners to compensate for any potential reduction in US support. Counter calls for halting arms supplies to Ukraine by highlighting the importance of continued support for Ukrainian defense.