Okay, here is the updated analysis of the military situation in Ukraine, incorporating the new information received:
Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 16:38 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. In the Donetsk region, the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion. Russian forces are reportedly within 2200 meters of complete encirclement, with Ukrainian forces reportedly bisected in the center and blocked in the northern and southern parts. The only way in and out of Velyka Novosilka is on foot, and an evacuation is reportedly being organized. The situation in Pokrovsk is serious, with Russian forces reportedly within 10 kilometers of the city and continuing their advance. Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces making further advances and capturing about half of the city's urban area. They are also advancing south of the railway station after clearing the workshops of the refractory plant.
Russian forces have also made gains in the Luhansk region, capturing Zakhidne and Ivanovka. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units that had previously broken through. Russian forces report advances south of Kruglенькое and in the direction of Nikolaevka—Viktorivka—Nikol'skiy, where they are attempting to split Ukrainian defenses. They also report that they are attacking Ukrainian positions near Kurilovka and Guyevo, with reports of entering Guyevo. Ukrainian forces continue to transfer reserves to the Sudzha border area, and Russian forces are reportedly destroying most of them in the Sumy region.
Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported, including the introduction of a new Russian drone, the "Mikrob," with AI capabilities. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. A new threat of ballistic missiles from the east and south has been issued, targeting Kryvyi Rih and the Dnipropetrovsk region.
US President Trump's statements at the World Economic Forum (WEF) have added a new layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation. He has called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices, claiming it would lead to a swift end to the war in Ukraine by putting pressure on Russia. He has also urged NATO countries to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP and promised to work towards a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine. Additionally, he has criticized the EU's trade policies towards the US. These statements suggest a potential shift in US policy, with a focus on economic pressure and a negotiated settlement to the conflict.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
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Velyka Novosilka:
- Russian forces are within 2200 meters of complete encirclement. The settlement is under threat of an operational encirclement.
- Ukrainian forces are blocked in the northern and southern parts, with escape routes cut off, and the defending forces are reportedly bisected in the center of the settlement. The only way in and out of Velyka Novosilka is on foot.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using Grad MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka at night, further intensifying the assault.
- Reports indicate that Velyka Novosilka is divided in two, with Ukrainian forces in the southern part completely surrounded.
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Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city.
- "Дневник Десантника" reports that Russian forces have destroyed two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 Ukrainian soldiers in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). They also destroyed a drone launch site and four Warmate kamikaze drones and two FlyEye reconnaissance drones in the Lazurny microdistrict. In Gryshino, Russian airstrikes destroyed a temporary deployment point and a stabilization point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a local school, killing at least 30 soldiers and destroying three JLTV Oshkosh armored vehicles and two Mercedes Zetros trucks. In Dmytrovo, Russian forces destroyed two 2B11 120-mm mortars and eight Ukrainian soldiers.
- According to "Военкор Котенок", the situation in the Kotlyno-Udachnoye area has changed. Ukrainian attempts to repel Russian attacks near Udachnoye have failed. Russian forces are advancing in the southern part of Udachnoye, fighting for the station, and approaching the center in the north.
- An officer of the reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksiy Hetman, stated in a commentary to the RBC-Ukraine YouTube channel that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have a chance to hold Pokrovsk and repel the enemy, but additional reserves are needed.
- Ukrainian President Zelensky dedicated the day to working in the Pokrovsk direction, where the enemy is concentrating its main efforts and conducting active offensive operations. He listened to the commanders of the brigades regarding the peculiarities of conducting combat operations, problematic issues, and took all measures to solve them.
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Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
- In the Chasiv Yar direction, after clearing the workshops of the refractory plant, battles have shifted to the area west of Workshop No. 1 of the Chasov Yar Refractory Plant. Russian forces have launched an offensive south of the railway station, expanding their control after artillery shelling near Dniprovsky Pond.
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Kurakhove:
- "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Nov আন্দ্রিভকা and occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to counterattack near Zelenovka and Andreevka to prevent the "pocket" from closing and allowing their forces to escape.
- Video evidence shows the precision destruction of a Ukrainian BMP-2 by a Russian FPV drone west of Kurakhove.
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Toretsk:
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Dzerzhinsk:
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Kramatorsk:
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Zverevo:
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Donetsk:
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Other:
Zaporizhzhia Region
- The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration announced that communities in the region can apply for funding to build and repair shelters in schools. The government has allocated 6.2 billion hryvnias for shelters in educational institutions. Applications will be accepted from January 20 to 26. The funds will be used to complete projects started in 2024 and to finance new projects.
- An air raid alert has been lifted in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Kursk Region
Kharkiv Region
Luhansk Region
Drone Warfare
- Drone activity reported from Poltava towards Dnipro.
- Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian BMP-2 by a Russian FPV drone.
Geopolitical Developments
- US President Trump's Statements at WEF:
- Called on Saudi Arabia and OPEC to lower oil prices to end the war in Ukraine quickly.
- Urged NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP.
- Promised to work towards a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine.
- Criticized the EU's trade policies towards the US.
- Russian Response:
- Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, stated that Russia's military actions are the best response to Zelensky's "ultimatums" about returning to 2022 borders.
- Medvedev also discussed with a special group of the Military-Industrial Commission the additional increase in the production of air defense systems to protect civilian objects, industrial, and military infrastructure. He stated that Kyiv's attacks on objects in Russia are often intended "just to scare people."
- Medvedev visited the Bryansk region to discuss increasing the production of air defense systems.
- Other:
- Reports of a Ukrainian soldier with HIV being sent back to the front.
- Reports of the detention of an individual accused of collecting secret information for enemy intelligence services.
- Reports of a meeting between the Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War and families of soldiers from the 31st Separate Mechanized Brigade.
Humanitarian Situation
- Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
- A coordination council has been created in the Kursk region to address the problems of residents in the border areas.
- The damage in the Kursk region from Ukrainian attacks is estimated at over 750 billion rubles, with 21% of the territory affected by the fighting.
- Communities in the Zaporizhzhia region can apply for funding to build and repair shelters in schools.
Analysis
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing to press their offensive in the Donetsk region. The near encirclement of Velyka Novosilka and the advances towards Pokrovsk and in Chasiv Yar represent significant threats to Ukrainian defenses. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the reported heavy losses further compound the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces.
Drone warfare continues to play a crucial role, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The introduction of new drone technologies, such as the reported Russian "Mikrob" drone with AI capabilities, highlights the ongoing technological arms race in this domain.
US President Trump's statements at the WEF have introduced a new element of uncertainty into the geopolitical landscape. His call for lower oil prices and increased NATO defense spending, coupled with his promise to work towards a peace agreement, could signal a shift in US policy towards the conflict. However, the Russian response, particularly Medvedev's statements, indicates that Moscow remains committed to its military objectives and is unlikely to be swayed by external pressure alone.
The humanitarian situation, particularly in the Kursk and Zaporizhzhia regions, is concerning. The displacement of civilians, the damage to infrastructure, and the ongoing threat of attacks underscore the urgent need for humanitarian assistance and protection measures.
Overall, the situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, evolving military tactics, shifting geopolitical dynamics, and a growing humanitarian crisis. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the prospects for a negotiated settlement.
