Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 23, 2025, 16:05 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with Russian forces continuing their offensive across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point of intense fighting, particularly around Velyka Novosilka, Pokrovsk, and Chasiv Yar. In the Donetsk region, the encirclement of Velyka Novosilka is nearing completion, with Ukrainian forces reportedly bisected in the center and blocked in the northern and southern parts. The only way in and out of Velyka Novosilka is on foot. Russian forces are reportedly 2200 meters from completely encircling the town. The situation in Pokrovsk is serious, with Russian forces reportedly within 10 kilometers of the city and continuing their advance. Heavy fighting continues in Chasiv Yar, with Russian forces making further advances and capturing about half of the city's urban area. Russian forces have also made gains in the Luhansk region, capturing Zakhidne and Ivanovka. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces regaining territory and neutralizing Ukrainian units that had previously broken through. Russian forces report that an attempted Ukrainian counterattack to retake Kruglенькое failed. Russian forces report that they are finishing taking the remaining Ukrainian positions in Kurilovka. Russian forces report that Nikolaevo-Daryino is under their control and that airborne troops are advancing further into Ukrainian territory. Russian forces report that there is heavy fighting in Makhnovka. Heavy fighting continues in the Kursk region, with Ukrainian forces launching constant counterattacks, slowing Russian progress. Despite this, Russian forces are advancing near Nikolaevo-Daryino. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with extensive activity reported, including the introduction of a new Russian drone, the "Mikrob," with AI capabilities. The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements in several regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk. A new threat of ballistic missiles from the east and south has been issued, targeting Kryvyi Rih and the Dnipropetrovsk region. Geopolitical developments, including potential shifts in US policy under Trump and internal Ukrainian issues, add further complexity. The Polish Foreign Minister has stated that Putin must earn a meeting with Trump, and that he is not the same Putin Trump knew during his first term. Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Nov আন্দ্রিভকা and occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
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Velyka Novosilka:
- Russian forces are within 1.5 km of complete encirclement. The settlement is under threat of an operational encirclement.
- Ukrainian forces are blocked in the northern and southern parts, with escape routes cut off, and the defending forces are reportedly bisected in the center of the settlement. The only way in and out of Velyka Novosilka is on foot.
- The "Vostok" group is using all means to attack the blocked enemy.
- Video evidence shows the work of "Iskavodov" from the 381st Artillery Regiment of the 150th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, targeting and destroying a British L-119 howitzer near Velyka Novosilka.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces from the "Vostok" group destroying a Ukrainian command post near Velyka Novosilka. Over 150 Ukrainian soldiers were reportedly killed, and the remaining forces are trapped.
- Video evidence shows operators from the 14th Guards Special Forces Brigade of the "Vostok" group using FPV drones to target and destroy a Ukrainian self-propelled artillery unit near the Sukhyi Yaly River.
- "АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА" reports that the enemy is fleeing Velyka Novosilka and that strikes are being carried out on the crossing with personnel of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The message also states that the cleanup of the neighborhoods is currently underway.
- Russian forces are reportedly organizing an evacuation of Ukrainian forces from Velyka Novosilka. The report suggests that while the Russian forces are attempting to facilitate a withdrawal, they are also facing challenges in maintaining communication, supplies, and evacuation routes due to the ongoing fighting. It also suggests that the Ukrainian 1st Presidential Brigade of the National Guard is being prioritized for evacuation, while regular infantry units from the 110th Mechanized Brigade are left to "hold the line" without adequate support.
- Video evidence shows drone operators of the 39th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade targeting Russian troops in the vicinity of the Sukhi Yali River.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region.
- The distance between advancing Russian units is reported to be between 2.2 and 3.7 km, indicating that the pocket is completely under fire control by Russian forces.
- Russian forces are reportedly 2200 meters from completely encircling the town.
- New video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room.
- The city is reportedly in a "semi-encirclement."
- Video evidence purports to show the 40th Separate Brigade of the Ukrainian Coastal Defense Forces effectively engaging Russian targets with drones.
- The "Colonelcassad" Telegram channel reports that Russian forces from the 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade conducted a successful assault on an enemy stronghold near Velyka Novosilka.
- Russian forces are squeezing the remnants of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which are trapped between the Kashlagach and Mokrye Yaly rivers.
- Ukrainian forces report that some of their positions near Velyka Novosilka have been destroyed due to intensified Russian shelling.
- A Ukrainian military officer has confirmed the dire situation in Velyka Novosilka, stating that the settlement is under threat of an operational encirclement.
- Russian forces are using the "Grad" MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka at night.
- Russian forces are reportedly encircling the Ukrainian garrison in the center of Velyka Novosilka.
- The Ukrainian forces in the southern part of Velyka Novosilka are reportedly surrounded.
- Ukrainian forces are attempting to prevent the encirclement by focusing on positions north and south of Novy Komar.
- Russian forces are using artillery and airstrikes to target Ukrainian positions in Velyka Novosilka.
- The Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to cross the river in the northern part of Velyka Novosilka using improvised crossings.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian military logistics vehicles near Velyka Novosilka.
- New: Nighttime video evidence shows Russian forces using Grad MLRS to target Velyka Novosilka, further intensifying the assault on the already besieged town.
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Pokrovsk:
- Russian forces are reportedly less than 10 kilometers from the city.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using a drone to target a Ukrainian armored pickup truck in the Kursk region.
- Bійці роти матеріального забезпечення 1-го окремого штурмового батальону «Да Вінчі» need help near Pokrovsk.
- Heavy flamethrower systems TOS-1A "Solntsepek" crews reportedly destroyed strongholds of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a border area of the Kursk region.
- Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
- "Azov" forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction, described as more like raids before retreating without securing positions.
- Russian artillery is heavily shelling Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk).
- Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk.
- Reports of the Ukrainian metallurgical holding "Metinvest" potentially ceasing operations after the loss of the "Pokrovskoe" mine.
- Operators of the "Pulstron" complex of the 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces report successfully targeting and destroying Russian military equipment and personnel.
- Heavy fighting continues, with reports of a motorized rifle attack on the Novovasylivka - Novoelizavetovka line.
- Fighting is ongoing in the areas of Shevchenko, Udachne, Baranivka, Kotlyne, Zverevo, Uspenivka, Slovyanka, and Petropavlivka.
- Russian assault troops have reportedly captured a ventilation shaft of a mine west of Kotlyne.
- Russian forces have reportedly begun fighting in Zverevo.
- Russian forces are reportedly forcibly evacuating children from Pokrovsk.
- West of Volkovo and north of Solenoye, Russian forces have reportedly advanced 3.6 km, encompassing the entire "pocket."
- Heavy fighting is reported in Udachnoye.
- Following the liberation of Baranovka, Russian forces are clearing positions on the opposite high bank of the river, from where the enemy had controlled the village.
- Fighting continues west of Vodyanoye Vtoroye.
- Russian forces have liberated Baranovka.
- They are within 5-7 km of the administrative border of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, intensifying efforts to encircle this strategically vital city.
- The liberation of Vozdvyzhenka and the severing of key supply lines significantly impede Ukrainian resupply and reinforcement.
- Russian DRGs are reportedly operating near the road between Udachnoye and Novosergievka.
- Ukrainian forces are attempting to use drones to target Russian troops in a ruined structure in an effort to save Pokrovsk.
- Video shows missile trails and reports that Russian forces are conducting powerful strikes on Pokrovsk throughout the day, while simultaneously advancing and encircling the city.
- Russian forces have advanced along forested areas southwest of Slavyanka.
- Fighting continues south of Petrovpavlovka and Shevchenko, moving towards Andriivka.
- Russian forces are targeting Ukrainian drone communication equipment in Pokrovsk.
- In Krasnoarmiisk, Russian artillery destroyed Ukrainian positions, including two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 soldiers.
- New: "Дневник Десантника" reports that Russian forces have destroyed two FH70 howitzers, one M777 howitzer, and 17 Ukrainian soldiers in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). They also destroyed a drone launch site and four Warmate kamikaze drones and two FlyEye reconnaissance drones in the Lazurny microdistrict. In Gryshino, Russian airstrikes destroyed a temporary deployment point and a stabilization point of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in a local school, killing at least 30 soldiers and destroying three JLTV Oshkosh armored vehicles and two Mercedes Zetros trucks. In Dmytrovo, Russian forces destroyed two 2B11 120-mm mortars and eight Ukrainian soldiers.
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Chasiv Yar:
- Russian forces have cleared the forest area south of the Novyi microdistrict and advanced another 800 meters.
- Russian artillerymen from the "Grad" MLRS engaged enemy positions near the Dniprovskyi pond.
- Colonelcassad reports that Russian forces have almost completely liberated Solenoye and are continuing to fight for Udachnoye and in the Kotlino area.
- Video evidence shows operators of FPV drones of the Russian Armed Forces attacking enemy shelters on the Kherson direction.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front. A generator and a suspected Javelin anti-tank missile system were among the targets destroyed.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting a building in Zaporizhzhia with four missiles.
- Video evidence shows homemade munitions being produced in field workshops by Russian engineers from the "SSO Byzantium".
- Colonelcassad" shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest.
- Reports of Russian forces making significant advances in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and engaging in battles for a multi-story building near a refractory plant.
- The 10th Mountain Assault Brigade "Edelweiss" shows the destruction of Russian forces, including four dozen "motorpikes" who launched an assault north of Vesele.
- "Дневник Десантника" reports that Russian forces have expanded their control zone to Belohorivka on the Krasnolimanske direction. Fighting is ongoing on its outskirts. They are also advancing northwest of Ivanivka towards Kolodyazne.
- On the Chasiv Yar direction, a cauldron is forming. Russian forces are advancing not only in the Chasiv Yar urban area but also to the south, east of Stupochki.
- Clashes continue near Chasiv Yar with no significant changes.
- In Chasov Yar, after the liberation of the Refractory Plant, the fighting shifted to the "Novoseverny" microdistrict. To the south, heavy fighting continues for residential areas.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance in Chasiv Yar, dislodging the enemy from their positions.
- Tactical successes are reported, with the 200th Brigade pushing the enemy out of the "Десятый" microdistrict and currently liberating the "Новосеверный" microdistrict. Airborne troops are pushing out enemy forces west of the 3rd workshop of the refractory plant.
- Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. They are also making progress in a nearby forest.
- A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant.
- Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
- Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat in Chasiv Yar.
- Video evidence shows the 18th Brigade of the Ukrainian National Guard targeting Russian infantry in the central part of Chasiv Yar.
- The basements and workshops of the refractory plant in Chasiv Yar have been completely cleared.
- Reports that the enemy set fire to a manifold near Chasovyi Yar, possibly to hide losses after an attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- Fighting continues in the "Novoseverny" district, south of the Refractory Plant.
- A Ukrainian "Baba Yaga" drone was reportedly shot down by a sniper pair from the 299th regiment of the 98th Airborne Division.
- Russian reconnaissance units from the 215th ORB of the 98th Airborne Division are using "Molniya 2.0" kamikaze FPV drones to target enemy firing points.
- The "Хортиця" operational-strategic group reports that Russian forces have set fire to a manifold near Chasiv Yar, likely to conceal losses after a Ukrainian attack.
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Kurakhove:
- Video evidence shows the work of "Iskavodov" from the 381st Artillery Regiment of the 150th Guards Motorized Rifle Division, targeting and destroying a British L-119 howitzer near Kurakhove.
- A new video shows fighters from Yakutia with the callsigns Amga and Gorets, who evacuated civilians from Vremivka under fire from the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- Positional fighting is reported in the Kurakhove - Dachne area. Russian assault units reportedly captured new positions north of the Kurakhove sludge dumps, advancing 1.5 km west along the Dachne - Yantarne line.
- Most of Kurakhove has been captured by Russian forces, with fighting ongoing for strongholds near Hryshyno.
- Northwest of the liberated Kurakhovo, Russian forces are leveling the front line on the Petropavlovka-Shevchenko section. To the southwest, Russian units are fighting for Dachnoye. There are battles along the forest belts north and northeast of Sukhoi Yaly.
- Russian forces targeted and destroyed communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones.
- Active combat operations reported near Kurakhovo.
- Successful strike on a Ukrainian armored vehicle south of Dachne after being targeted by a Russian FPV drone.
- Ukrainian forces successfully stormed a Russian position near Kurakhove and captured several Russian soldiers. The operation was carried out by the 79th Separate Air Assault Tauride Brigade.
- Ongoing active combat operations in the vicinity of Kurakhovo and Andriivka.
- Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
- Reports of fighting near Kurakhove and Andriivka.
- Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo.
- New video evidence shows Russian forces using FPV drones equipped with fiber optics to destroy a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting and destroying communication relays and antennas in the Kurakhove area with FPV drones. This action is described as a priority for disrupting Ukrainian communications.
- Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
- Video evidence from the People's Militia of the DPR shows the liquidation of a Ukrainian mortar crew in Dachne by a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer, using a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
- Russian forces continue clearing operations in liberated territory and report destroying a group of Ukrainian forces during a retreat using drones.
- Ukrainian forces report that Russian forces have taken control of dominant heights near Kurakhove, putting Ukrainian troops in an unfavorable position in the lowlands.
- Fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
- Near Kurakhove, a Ukrainian armored personnel carrier was destroyed by a Russian drone.
- Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Nov আন্দ্রিভকা and occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka.
- New: "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" reports that Russian forces are advancing from Kurakhove towards Dnipropetrovsk, liberating extensive territories. They have reportedly advanced in the southern part of Nov আন্দ্রিভকা and occupied several forest strips south of Ukrainka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly attempting to counterattack near Zelenovka and Andreevka to prevent the "pocket" from closing and allowing their forces to escape.
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Toretsk:
- No new major updates.
- Ukrainian defenses have nearly collapsed, with less than 15% of the city under their control.
- Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out.
- Russian forces carried out 19 assault actions near Toretsk, Krymske, and Shcherbynivka. Three combat clashes are still ongoing.
- Pro-Russian sources report that Russian forces control almost all of Toretsk, except for the "Toreskaya" mine.
- Video evidence shows a sniper pair from the 2nd Mechanized Battalion of the 32nd Separate Mechanized Brigade simultaneously killing two Russian infantrymen near Toretsk.
- A new video shows a Ukrainian sniper team reportedly killing two Russian soldiers near Toretsk.
- Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine.
- In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
- Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat.
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly losing control of the city.
- Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian troops.
- Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Totem" unit of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, successfully targeted a Russian soldier in an armored Niva vehicle with a drone.
- Russian forces have reportedly advanced another 300 meters and taken control of the Toretska mine, with fighting ongoing in the central part of the mine.
- In Petrivka, Russian forces advanced 600 meters, with fighting ongoing in the central part of the settlement.
- Video evidence shows that "protective blankets" used by Ukrainian forces are ineffective against Russian drones.
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Dzerzhinsk:
- No new major updates.
- Russian forces reportedly captured most of the mining complex and part of Krymske.
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Kramatorsk:
- A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk. The number of casualties from the Kramatorsk strike has increased to eight, including two children.
- Reports of the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk being partially without power due to an emergency shutdown, potentially affecting water supply in various parts of the city.
- At the Kramatorsk axis, clashes were reported near Chasiv Yar and Fedorivka.
- Russian forces reportedly using the "Uragan" MLRS to destroy enemy positions.
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Zverevo:
- No new major updates.
- The fighting in Zverevo continues, with Russian forces gradually pushing Ukrainian forces along Gagarin Street and Sazonov's Gully. Ukrainian defenses are built around mine waste heaps. Russian aviation launched strikes with guided bombs against these positions and drone control points. Fighting is ongoing in the landings near the city dump to the northwest.
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Donetsk:
- Explosions were reported in the Kirovsky district of Donetsk, with at least ten explosions counted. A loud drone sound was also reported. Another explosion was reported in Lidiivka (Donetsk region), with windows blown out in one house.
- Russian forces shelled the Donetsk region 23 times in the past 24 hours, using 69 munitions.
- A missile alert was issued for the Donetsk region but was later lifted.
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Other:
- No new major updates.
- Russian forces report advances in Dmytriv, Urozhaine, Novosergiyivka, Slovyanka, and Yasenove.
Zaporizhzhia Region
- Video evidence shows Russian forces using drones to destroy Ukrainian positions and equipment on the Zaporizhzhia front. A generator and a suspected Javelin anti-tank missile system were among the targets destroyed.
- Video evidence shows Russian forces targeting a building in Zaporizhzhia with four missiles.
- The number of victims from the night attack in Zaporizhzhia has increased to 46, with 22 hospitalized, including a two-month-old boy in stable condition.
- The number of wounded from a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to two.
- Ukrainian forces are reportedly shelling Tokmak in the Zaporizhzhia region using MLRS, according to Russian sources.
- An air raid alert has been declared in the Zaporizhzhia region.
- On the Zaporozhye front, the Ukrainian forces continue to strengthen their positions through foreign mercenaries and the transfer of equipment, which becomes a priority target for Russian artillery, drones, and aircraft.
- Russian pilots struck at enemy positions in the area of Temirovka.
- The enemy at the same time hit the court building in Vasilyevka with artillery.
- Overnight, Russian forces launched 434 strikes on 9 settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region. Six airstrikes targeted Novoandriivka and Novodanylivka. 264 UAV attacks were reported on Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Novodarivka, and Charivne. Additionally, 10 MLRS attacks hit Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, and Novodarivka, and 154 artillery strikes targeted Kamianske, Huliaipole, Shcherbaky, Novodanylivka, Mala Tokmachka, Charivne, Huliaipilske, and Novodarivka. Ten reports of damage to residential buildings and infrastructure were received, with no civilian casualties reported.
- F-16s were spotted flying in the Zaporizhzhia direction. Last week, two F-16 fighter jets were observed in the south of the Ukrainian-occupied territory of the Zaporizhzhia region. The planes flew towards the Pology district, turned around, and flew back. The exact take-off area is unknown. However, there are only a few airfields capable of accommodating F-16s. Most likely, the route was as follows: F-16s were previously transferred from Poland to an airfield in Ivano-Frankivsk or Lutsk. From there, they could have moved to Ozerny in the Zhytomyr region or Vasylkiv in the Kyiv region. Vasylkiv, by the way, is one of the first airfields modernized for American aircraft. From there, they could easily fly to the Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk regions, practice flight routes, use several jump bases, and simulate strikes on Russian cities. Until now, F-16s have rarely been seen in eastern Ukraine. Previously, they were regularly observed in western Ukraine, occasionally flying into the Myrhorod area. Last week, they were active in Zaporizhzhia. And, most likely, these were training flights to practice the scenario of their use in combat. Since the transfer of the fighters, they have not been used for their intended purpose.
- At the Orikhiv axis, clashes were reported near Kamyanske.
- A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk, but an air raid alert has been lifted.
- An air raid alert has been reissued for the Zaporizhzhia region.
- The "Poprvse" group of the 3rd Special Forces Regiment reports precision strikes against Russian forces in the Zaporizhzhia direction.
- Ukrainian forces report using drones to hunt Russian infantry near Kupyansk.
- Ukrainian forces from the 141st Mechanized Brigade are targeting enemy positions in the Zaporizhzhia region with drones.
- The number of victims from the missile strike on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 51.
- Active counter-battery warfare is ongoing across the front. A significant number of strike and reconnaissance UAVs were observed in the sky.
- 15 drones were reportedly shot down or suppressed over the Rostov region of Russia during the night. Debris from a downed drone fell near a kindergarten in Krasny Sulin, causing no casualties or significant damage.
- 7 drones were reportedly shot down over Crimea the previous evening.
- 9 drones were reportedly shot down in the Rostov region around midnight.
- One drone was reportedly shot down over the Voronezh region during the night.
- Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting and destroying 15 units of Russian military transport in the Zaporizhzhia region.
- New: The Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration announced that communities in the region can apply for funding to build and repair shelters in schools. The government has allocated 6.2 billion hryvnias for shelters in educational institutions. Applications will be accepted from January 20 to 26. The funds will be used to complete projects started in 2024 and to finance new projects.
- New: An air raid alert has been lifted in the Zaporizhzhia region.
Kursk Region
