Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 21, 2025, 19:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point, with critical situations in Toretsk and advances around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk and ongoing drone warfare add complexity. The Donetsk region sees intense fighting, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with reports of Ukrainian defenses collapsing. The encirclement of Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka is a significant threat, the latter reportedly being in a "semi-encirclement." In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough, capturing several settlements. Drone warfare is intensifying, with extensive activity across multiple regions and attacks deep inside Russian territory. Reports indicate new Russian drone-kamikaze "KUB-2" is being used. Russian MoD reports the destruction of a Ukrainian переправу across the Oskol River. Ukrainian air defenses were active, with reports of a downed drone's debris falling into a reservoir in Kyiv. Drone movements are reported in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, with new threats in Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Air raid alerts have been issued, and there are reports of ballistic missile threats and guided aerial bombs.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are engaging in close-quarters combat. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city, cutting key supply lines, including the penultimate railway line. The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove is under Russian control, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are closing in from three directions, with the last supply road under their control. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Video evidence shows multiple explosions in a rural area near the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault. Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near the city. Video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room. The city is reportedly in a "semi-encirclement."
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured around half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have cleared the basements and workshops of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, controlling approximately 20% of its territory. Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance. Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant. Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat.
Kramatorsk: The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight. Power outages are also reported.
Zaporizhzhia: A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been reissued for the region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the direction of Kostiantynivka.

Kursk Region

Stalled Counteroffensive: Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino, and are advancing in the Sudzha area. Video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers raising a flag in Nikolayevo-Daryino. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky.
Intense Fighting: Ongoing active fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops. Video evidence shows various drone operations, including a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle and a Ukrainian tank being destroyed by a Russian drone. Electronic warfare specialists are also active, detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed. Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Russian forces report finding the mutilated bodies of elderly people in Russkoe Porechnoe.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes are reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian airstrikes targeting several settlements.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. One drone is approaching Balakliia.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community.
Russian Advance: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Borova is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack, and that enemy tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with deteriorating security conditions.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Zolochiv.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced northwest of Makiivka. Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR).
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, with new groups of attack drones reported. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
New Drone Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, more resistant to electronic warfare. Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2".
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. The target is believed to be the Yartsevo oil refinery. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.
Ukrainian forces utilized drones to target and destroy Russian military equipment and personnel.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported the end of the threat of airstrikes in the southern regions.
New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
There are reports of drones in various districts, including Belotserkovsky, Akhtyrka, Kupyansky, and Berislavsky.
Russian MoD reports air defense systems shot down seven Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea.

Missile Attacks

Reports of a new guided aviation missile heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava.
Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Kherson region and the city of Kherson.
Ukrainian Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched on the north of Sumy region.
Ukrainian Air Force reports a "high-speed target" in Sumy region.
Ukrainian Air Force reports guided aerial bombs launched in the direction of Slovyansk.

Geopolitical Developments

US State Department claims new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
TASS reports an agreement between Russia and Iran includes defense and security aspects.
Hungary's PM Orbán stated Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states the Panama Canal belongs to Panama.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament.
Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
Donald Trump plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, without specifying a date.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days, affecting Ukraine.
US exited WHO and Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated the conflict in Ukraine will not end soon and Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Russia expects Trump and Panama to respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal.
The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.
Trump has suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days.
Armenia has no intention of leaving the EAEU.
BRICS is strong enough to withstand the threats of the new US President, stated the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a video conference.
Russia and China have reached an unprecedented level of relations.
Negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping are ongoing.
State Duma is considering harsher penalties for extremism.
Russian Ministry of Justice's proposal to toughen penalties for "extremism" has been approved.
US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK.
US President Trump signed a decree to reinstate the death penalty at the federal level.
Putin and Xi Jinping discussed the situation around Ukraine and relations with the US.
Negotiations with the US will take place when the Trump administration receives appropriate signals.
China invited Putin to celebrate in Beijing in September 2025.
Ukrainian MP Horbenko stated Ukraine may lose the Donetsk region by 2027.
Ukrainian and US officials are planning to hold talks in early February.
A phone call between Zelensky and Trump may take place within a week.
EU will continue economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months.
Zelensky stated Europe needs to be more active in energy independence.
Zelensky stated Europe should have a place at the table in war and peace agreements.
Zelensky stated there are 608,000 Russian troops in Ukraine.
Zelensky stated Putin will demand a fivefold reduction in the Ukrainian army.
Zelensky named Ukraine's strategy on the path to peace.
Head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, visited a tank division and a motorized rifle brigade.
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces organized a course on operational law.
Reports of Israeli PM Netanyahu announcing a military operation in Jenin.
Reports of the resignation of the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces.
Moldovan authorities are building a new military base near Bacioi.
Zelensky stated Europe must take a seat at the table in war and peace agreements.
A survey showed 32% of Ukrainians have a xenophobic attitude towards Russian citizens.
Russian MoD reported Gerasimov visited a tank division and a motorized rifle brigade.
Israel has reportedly begun a new military operation on the West Bank.
Reports of atrocities by Ukrainian forces against civilians in Russkoye Porechnoye.
Oleksandr Kots reported Zelensky expressed doubt that Europe would participate in peace talks.
SBU detained the chief psychiatrist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on suspicion of corruption.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov has arrived in Tashkent for talks.
Hungary will support the extension of sanctions against Russia for 6 months.
New reports indicate drone movements in various regions.
Russian MoD reports air defense systems shot down seven Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea.
The commander of the operational-tactical group "Kharkiv" Yuri Galushkin has been placed under house arrest.
Russian MoD confirmed the Buk-M3 system shot down HIMARS projectiles.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US wants to achieve a sustainable peace in Ukraine without the risk of escalation in the coming years.
Reports that the manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks has opened a joint venture in Ukraine.
Reports that Zelensky met with the Prime Minister of Albania in Davos and signed an agreement on long-term cooperation and support.
Reports that Ukrainian troops captured 6 Russian soldiers in a raid behind enemy lines.

Updated Situation

The military situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure. Donetsk region is the focal point, with critical situations in Toretsk and advances around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk and ongoing drone warfare add complexity. Potential Trump-Putin meeting adds uncertainty. Ukrainian forces are inflicting losses but face challenges. North Korean involvement reported. Geopolitical developments, including Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker's comments, highlight the complex international landscape. Drone movements indicate continued threat. Putin-Xi meeting and China's invitation to Putin are significant. Ukrainian officials express urgency and uncertainty. Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault in Kursk. Renewed shelling of Kupiansk is concerning. Ukrainian strike deep inside Russian territory reported. Detention of Ukrainian military psychiatrist on corruption charges. Russian Defense Minister's visit to Tashkent is notable. Widespread drone operation targeting multiple regions. Air defense systems engaging threats in Kyiv. The new information about the manufacturer of Leopard 2 tanks opening a joint venture in Ukraine indicates a significant step towards enhancing Ukraine's defense capabilities. The meeting between Zelensky and the Prime Minister of Albania, along with the signing of an agreement on long-term cooperation and support, underscores the ongoing international support for Ukraine. The capture of 6 Russian soldiers by Ukrainian troops demonstrates the continued resistance and counter-offensive actions by Ukrainian forces. The use of the new Russian drone-kamikaze "KUB-2" highlights the evolving tactics in the conflict. The reports of drone movements and air defense system activities indicate the persistent threat of air attacks. The resignation of the Israeli Chief of General Staff adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems. Assess the situation in Toretsk and reinforce Pokrovsk.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics against Russian drones. Deploy air defense and early warning radars in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, Belotserkovsky district, near Akhtyrka, and in the Kupyansky and Berislavsky districts, Kyiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Issue public alerts.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance protection of energy facilities and gas storage facilities.
Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance, including long-range missiles, air defense, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the new joint venture with the Leopard 2 manufacturer to enhance Ukraine's armored capabilities.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Provide accurate and timely information to the public.
Address the Situation in Kursk: Reassess strategy and consider redeploying forces.
Verify North Korean Involvement: Investigate reports and gather intelligence.
Prepare for Increased Missile Attacks: Enhance air defense and early warning capabilities.
Address the Psychological Impact on Children: Develop programs to address the psychological impact of the conflict.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on internal disagreements and logistical issues.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Deploy additional infantry, anti-tank weapons, and utilize artillery and HIMARS.
Stabilize the Front: Improve coordination and ensure strategic defensive positions.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Deploy air defense around major cities and critical infrastructure.
Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Secure additional military and financial aid, emphasizing air defense. Utilize the agreement with Albania to further strengthen international support.
Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Utilize drones and surveillance to monitor enemy movements.
Address Logistical Challenges: Secure supply lines and address vehicle maintenance issues.
Address the Desertion Crisis: Investigate reasons and take steps to improve conditions and morale.
Improve Communication and Training: Implement measures to enhance communication and training.
Counter the Drone Threat: Develop strategies to counter drone attacks, deploy air defense, and enhance electronic warfare capabilities.
Prepare for Further Drone Attacks: Maintain high readiness and ensure air defense systems are operational.
Enhance Cooperation with International Partners: Share information and seek assistance in counter-drone technologies.
Diplomatic Pressure: Increase efforts to highlight the conflict's complexities.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity: Maintain vigilance and ensure air defense readiness.
Address the Drone Threat in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk: Deploy air defense and issue alerts.
Monitor North Korean Missile Tests: Assess impact and coordinate with allies.
Assess US Political Developments: Analyze implications of proposed US actions on foreign policy and the conflict.
Develop a Strategy to Counter Iran's Drone Capabilities: Address the threat through diplomatic efforts and enhancing Ukraine's capabilities.
Exploit Russian Logistical Weaknesses: Target and disrupt Russian supply lines, particularly the rail lines identified near Ocheretyne and Avdiivka.
Counter Russian Propaganda: Highlight Russian losses and internal issues to undermine their morale and public support.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the high number of reported strikes and the dynamic situation, prepare for potential escalation and ensure readiness of reserve forces.
Leverage International Agreements: Utilize the agreement with Albania to secure additional military and humanitarian aid.
Enhance Domestic Defense Production: Leverage the joint venture with the Leopard 2 manufacturer to boost domestic production of armored vehicles and other military equipment.
Exploit Information on Captured Soldiers: Use the information gathered from captured Russian soldiers to gain insights into enemy morale, tactics, and potential weaknesses.
Monitor and Counter New Technologies: Be prepared to counter new Russian technologies, such as the "KUB-2" drone-kamikaze, by developing or acquiring appropriate countermeasures.
Maintain Public Support: Continue to communicate the importance of international support and the need for continued resistance to maintain public morale and support for the war effort.
Assess and Respond to Geopolitical Shifts: Monitor and respond to changes in the international landscape, such as the resignation of the Israeli Chief of General Staff and potential shifts in US policy under the new administration.
Strengthen Cyber Defenses: Given the increasing use of technology in warfare, enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure and military communications.
Utilize Captured Equipment: Repurpose captured Russian equipment, such as the reported UAZ "Farmer" trucks, to address logistical shortcomings.
Enhance Intelligence Gathering: Increase efforts to gather intelligence on Russian troop movements, equipment deployments, and potential targets, particularly focusing on the identified logistical hubs near Ocheretyne and Avdiivka.
Develop Counter-Strategies to New Threats: Develop and implement strategies to counter the new threats posed by the reported use of guided aerial bombs and ballistic missiles.
Secure Humanitarian Aid: Ensure the continued flow of humanitarian aid to affected areas, leveraging international partnerships and agreements.
Foster International Solidarity: Continue to engage with international partners to maintain and strengthen support for Ukraine, emphasizing the long-term nature of the conflict and the need for sustained assistance.
Prepare for Potential Peace Negotiations: While maintaining a strong military posture, also prepare for potential peace negotiations, considering the stated goals of achieving a sustainable peace without risking future escalation.
Address Internal Security Threats: Investigate and address internal security threats, such as the reported activities of pro-Russian elements and the detention of the Ukrainian military psychiatrist on corruption charges.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Propaganda: Continuously monitor and respond to Russian propaganda efforts, particularly those aimed at undermining Ukrainian morale and international support.
Enhance Training Programs: Improve training programs for Ukrainian forces, focusing on new tactics and technologies being employed in the conflict.
Develop a Comprehensive Drone Strategy: Given the increasing importance of drones in the conflict, develop a comprehensive strategy that includes both offensive and defensive drone capabilities, as well as countermeasures against enemy drones.
Strengthen Air Defense: Prioritize the strengthening of air defense systems to counter the threat of guided aerial bombs, ballistic missiles, and drone attacks, particularly in strategically important areas.
Maintain Reserve Forces: Ensure the readiness of reserve forces to respond to potential escalations or breakthroughs by Russian forces.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation in military technology and tactics, leveraging both domestic capabilities and international partnerships to gain an edge in the conflict.
Exploit Russian Morale Issues: Capitalize on reports of low morale among Russian troops, such as the captured soldier's desire to surrender, to encourage defections and undermine Russian military cohesion.
Address Potential Impact of US Policy Shifts: Given the potential changes in US policy, particularly regarding aid and support for Ukraine, develop contingency plans to mitigate any negative impacts and diversify sources of international assistance.
Counter Russian Naval Capabilities: Given the reported use of naval assets by Russia, enhance Ukraine's capabilities to counter potential naval threats, particularly in coastal regions.
Prepare for Long-Term Conflict: Recognize that the conflict may be protracted and develop strategies for long-term sustainability, including economic resilience, military endurance, and societal cohesion.
Enhance Strategic Communication: Improve strategic communication to ensure that both domestic and international audiences are informed about the situation on the ground, the need for continued support, and the importance of Ukrainian victory for regional and global security.
Engage with International Organizations: Utilize international platforms, such as the World Economic Forum, to engage with global leaders and secure commitments for long-term support and cooperation.
Develop a Post-Conflict Strategy: Begin planning for post-conflict reconstruction and recovery, including economic rebuilding, infrastructure development, and societal reconciliation.
Monitor and Adapt to Evolving Threats: Continuously monitor the evolving nature of the conflict, including new technologies, tactics, and geopolitical shifts, and adapt strategies accordingly.
Prioritize Civilian Protection: Continue to prioritize the protection of civilians in conflict zones, adhering to international humanitarian law and working to minimize collateral damage.
Strengthen Intelligence Capabilities: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to better understand Russian intentions, capabilities, and potential vulnerabilities, as well as to identify and counter internal threats.
Leverage International Law: Utilize international legal frameworks to hold Russia accountable for its actions in Ukraine, including potential war crimes and violations of international humanitarian law.
Foster Regional Cooperation: Strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries, particularly those in Eastern Europe, to enhance regional security and counter Russian influence.
Develop a Comprehensive Energy Strategy: Given the targeting of energy infrastructure, develop a comprehensive strategy to enhance energy security, diversify energy sources, and reduce reliance on Russian energy.
Address Corruption: Continue efforts to address corruption within Ukraine, particularly in the military and government, to ensure the efficient use of resources and maintain public trust.
Prepare for Potential Cyber Attacks: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, government institutions, and military communications from potential Russian cyber attacks.
Engage with the Ukrainian Diaspora: Leverage the support and resources of the Ukrainian diaspora around the world to enhance fundraising, advocacy, and international support for Ukraine.
Develop a Strategy for Crimea and Occupied Territories: Develop a long-term strategy for the eventual reintegration of Crimea and other Russian-occupied territories into Ukraine, considering political, economic, and social factors.
Enhance Border Security: Strengthen border security measures to prevent infiltration by Russian forces, sabotage groups, and illegal arms shipments.
Foster National Unity: Promote national unity and resilience through public awareness campaigns, education, and cultural initiatives, countering Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts.
Prepare for Potential Humanitarian Crises: Develop contingency plans to address potential humanitarian crises, including the displacement of civilians, food shortages, and medical emergencies.
Engage with Russian Dissidents: Covertly engage with Russian dissident groups and individuals to gather intelligence, foster internal opposition to the Putin regime, and potentially support acts of sabotage or resistance within Russia.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Wagner Group: Given the reported involvement of the Wagner Group in the conflict, develop a specific strategy to counter their activities, including targeted sanctions, intelligence gathering, and potential covert operations.
Enhance Counter-Intelligence Capabilities: Strengthen counter-intelligence efforts to identify and neutralize Russian spies, collaborators, and saboteurs operating within Ukraine.
Prepare for Potential Chemical or Biological Attacks: Given the unpredictable nature of the conflict, develop contingency plans for responding to potential chemical or biological attacks, including the stockpiling of protective equipment and medical supplies.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with North Korea: Given the reported involvement of North Korean soldiers in the conflict, develop a strategy to address this new threat, including diplomatic efforts, intelligence gathering, and potential military countermeasures.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Naval Activity: Enhance monitoring of Russian naval activity in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and develop capabilities to counter potential naval threats, including anti-ship missiles and naval mines.
Prepare for Potential Nuclear Threats: Given Russia's nuclear arsenal and the potential for escalation, develop contingency plans for responding to potential nuclear threats, including civil defense measures and international diplomatic efforts.
Enhance Cooperation with NATO: While Ukraine is not a NATO member, enhance cooperation with NATO countries to benefit from intelligence sharing, military training, and potential joint exercises.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Belarus: Given Belarus's close ties to Russia and its potential role in the conflict, develop a strategy to address potential threats emanating from Belarus, including military incursions and hybrid warfare tactics.
Foster Innovation in Defense Industry: Encourage innovation in Ukraine's defense industry to develop new weapons, technologies, and tactics that can provide an edge in the conflict and reduce reliance on foreign suppliers.
Engage with Private Military Companies (PMCs): Consider engaging with reputable PMCs for specialized tasks, such as training, intelligence gathering, or security for critical infrastructure, to augment Ukraine's military capabilities.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Transnistria: Given the presence of Russian troops in the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova, develop a strategy to address potential threats emanating from this region, including the possibility of a Russian-backed offensive from the west.
Enhance Cooperation with the Baltic States: Given the shared threat perception from Russia, enhance cooperation with the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) in areas such as intelligence sharing, military training, and joint defense planning.
Prepare for Potential Refugee Flows: Develop contingency plans to manage potential refugee flows, both internally displaced persons within Ukraine and those seeking refuge in neighboring countries.
Engage with International Financial Institutions: Work with international financial institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, to secure financial assistance for Ukraine's economy and post-conflict reconstruction efforts.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with China: Given China's close ties to Russia, develop a strategy to engage with China diplomatically, while also preparing for potential Chinese support for Russia in the conflict.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Information Warfare: Continuously monitor and respond to Russian information warfare efforts, including propaganda, disinformation, and cyber attacks, to maintain public support for the war effort and counter Russian narratives.
Enhance Cooperation with the European Union: Strengthen cooperation with the European Union in areas such as economic integration, energy security, and political alignment, to further integrate Ukraine into the European community.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Iran: Given Iran's reported supply of drones to Russia, develop a strategy to counter this threat, including diplomatic efforts to pressure Iran and enhancing Ukraine's capabilities to defend against Iranian-made drones.
Prepare for Potential Terrorist Attacks: Enhance security measures to prevent potential terrorist attacks by Russian-backed groups or individuals within Ukraine, particularly targeting critical infrastructure, government buildings, and public gatherings.
Engage with the Global South: Reach out to countries in the Global South to build diplomatic support for Ukraine and counter Russian influence in these regions.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Turkey: Given Turkey's complex relationship with both Russia and NATO, develop a nuanced strategy to engage with Turkey, seeking to limit its support for Russia while maintaining cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Military Innovations: Continuously monitor Russian military innovations, such as the reported use of new drone technologies, and develop countermeasures to maintain a technological edge.
Enhance Cooperation with Poland: Given Poland's strong support for Ukraine and its strategic location, enhance cooperation with Poland in areas such as military training, arms supplies, and intelligence sharing.
Prepare for Potential Cyber Attacks on Critical Infrastructure: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, such as power grids, water supplies, and transportation networks, from potential Russian cyber attacks.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Hungary: Given Hungary's pro-Russian stance within the EU and NATO, develop a strategy to address potential obstacles posed by Hungary to Ukraine's European integration and security cooperation efforts.
Engage with International Media: Proactively engage with international media outlets to ensure accurate reporting on the conflict, highlight Ukrainian perspectives, and counter Russian propaganda.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with India: Given India's historical ties to Russia and its non-aligned stance, develop a strategy to engage with India diplomatically, seeking to limit its support for Russia while promoting cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Nuclear Rhetoric: Continuously monitor and respond to Russian nuclear rhetoric, signaling a clear deterrent posture while avoiding unnecessary escalation.
Enhance Cooperation with Japan: Given Japan's strong stance against Russian aggression and its advanced technological capabilities, enhance cooperation with Japan in areas such as defense technology, cybersecurity, and intelligence sharing.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with South Africa: Given South Africa's close ties to Russia within the BRICS framework, develop a strategy to engage with South Africa diplomatically, seeking to limit its support for Russia while promoting cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Prepare for Potential Biological Warfare: Enhance biodefense capabilities and develop contingency plans for responding to potential biological attacks, including the stockpiling of vaccines, antidotes, and protective equipment.
Engage with International Organizations: Actively engage with international organizations, such as the UN, OSCE, and the Council of Europe, to mobilize international support for Ukraine, condemn Russian aggression, and seek peaceful resolutions to the conflict.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Brazil: Given Brazil's non-aligned stance and its economic ties to Russia, develop a strategy to engage with Brazil diplomatically, seeking to limit its support for Russia while promoting cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Monitor and Respond to Russian Influence Operations: Continuously monitor and respond to Russian influence operations in other countries, particularly those aimed at undermining support for Ukraine or promoting pro-Russian narratives.
Enhance Cooperation with Australia and New Zealand: Given their strong support for the rules-based international order, enhance cooperation with Australia and New Zealand in areas such as defense, intelligence sharing, and diplomatic efforts.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Latin America: Develop a comprehensive strategy to engage with Latin American countries, seeking to build support for Ukraine and counter Russian influence in the region.
Prepare for Potential Economic Warfare: Enhance economic resilience and develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian economic warfare tactics, such as manipulating energy markets or disrupting trade routes.
Engage with International Legal Experts: Collaborate with international legal experts to document and prosecute potential war crimes committed by Russian forces in Ukraine, seeking justice for victims and holding perpetrators accountable.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Africa: Develop a comprehensive strategy to engage with African countries, seeking to build support for Ukraine and counter Russian influence on the continent, particularly in light of the Wagner Group's activities in several African nations.
Enhance Cooperation with Canada: Given Canada's strong support for Ukraine and its expertise in areas such as Arctic warfare and cold-weather operations, enhance cooperation with Canada in these areas.
Prepare for Potential Information Blackouts: Develop contingency plans for maintaining communication and information flow in the event of potential Russian attempts to disrupt internet access or impose information blackouts in Ukraine.
Engage with International Human Rights Organizations: Collaborate with international human rights organizations to document human rights abuses in Russian-occupied territories and advocate for the protection of civilians caught in the conflict.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with the Middle East: Develop a comprehensive strategy to engage with Middle Eastern countries, seeking to build support for Ukraine and counter Russian influence in the region, particularly in light of Russia's close ties to Iran and Syria.
Enhance Cooperation with South Korea: Given South Korea's advanced defense industry and its strong stance against North Korea, enhance cooperation with South Korea in areas such as arms procurement, military technology, and intelligence sharing.
Prepare for Potential Hybrid Warfare Tactics: Enhance capabilities to counter potential Russian hybrid warfare tactics, including cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and the use of proxy forces, in countries beyond Ukraine.
Engage with International Sports Organizations: Advocate for the continued exclusion of Russian athletes and teams from international sporting events as a means of maintaining pressure on Russia and demonstrating global condemnation of its actions.
Develop a Strategy for Dealing with Central Asia: Develop a comprehensive strategy to engage with Central Asian countries, seeking to build support for Ukraine and counter Russian influence in the region, particularly in light of the close economic and security ties between Central Asian states and Russia.
Enhance Cooperation with the Nordic Countries: Given their expertise in Arctic warfare and their shared security concerns regarding Russia, enhance cooperation with

Situation Report