Strategic Overview: Military Situation in Ukraine - January 21, 2025
The military situation in Ukraine is characterized by intense fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with reports of Ukrainian defenses collapsing. The encirclement of Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka is a significant threat. In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough, capturing several settlements. Drone warfare is intensifying, with extensive activity across multiple regions and attacks deep inside Russian territory. The geopolitical landscape is complex, with potential meetings between Trump and Putin adding uncertainty.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are engaging in close-quarters combat. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk. Russian forces have reportedly advanced 300 meters, taking control of the Toretska mine. In Petrivka, they advanced 600 meters.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city, cutting key supply lines, including the penultimate railway line. The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih. Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. Heavy shelling is reported in Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove is under Russian control, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank. Video evidence shows the destruction of a Ukrainian howitzer near Dachne.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are closing in from three directions, with the last supply road under their control. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Video evidence shows multiple explosions in a rural area near the city. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault. Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near the city. Video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured around half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are fighting in the Severnyi district. They have cleared the basements and workshops of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant, controlling approximately 20% of its territory. Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance. Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant. Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat.
Kramatorsk: The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight. Power outages are also reported.
Zaporizhzhia: A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk. An air raid alert has been reissued for the region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the direction of Kostiantynivka.
Kursk Region
Stalled Counteroffensive: Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino, and are advancing in the Sudzha area. Video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers raising a flag in Nikolayevo-Daryino. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near Nikolsky.
Intense Fighting: Ongoing active fighting is reported, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops. Video evidence shows various drone operations, including a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle and a Ukrainian tank being destroyed by a Russian drone. Electronic warfare specialists are also active, detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports 300 North Korean soldiers killed. Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Russian forces report finding the mutilated bodies of elderly people in Russkoe Porechnoe.
Kharkiv Region
Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes are reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian airstrikes targeting several settlements.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. One drone is approaching Balakliia.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community.
Russian Advance: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Borova is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack, and that enemy tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with deteriorating security conditions.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Zolochiv.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced northwest of Makiivka. Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR).
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, with new groups of attack drones reported. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
New Drone Technology: Russian forces are reportedly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, more resistant to electronic warfare. Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2".
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. The target is believed to be the Yartsevo oil refinery. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles.
Ukrainian forces utilized drones to target and destroy Russian military equipment and personnel.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported the end of the threat of airstrikes in the southern regions.
New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions.
There are reports of drones in various districts, including Belotserkovsky, Akhtyrka, Kupyansky, and Berislavsky.
Missile Attacks
Reports of a new guided aviation missile heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava.
Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Kherson region and the city of Kherson.
Geopolitical Developments
US State Department claims new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
TASS reports an agreement between Russia and Iran includes defense and security aspects.
Hungary's PM Orbán stated Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states the Panama Canal belongs to Panama.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament.
Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
Donald Trump plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, without specifying a date.
Donald Trump expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days, affecting Ukraine.
US exited WHO and Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated the conflict in Ukraine will not end soon and Europe must be at the negotiating table.
Russia expects Trump and Panama to respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal.
The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.
Trump has suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days.
Armenia has no intention of leaving the EAEU.
BRICS is strong enough to withstand the threats of the new US President, stated the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a video conference.
Russia and China have reached an unprecedented level of relations.
Negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping are ongoing.
State Duma is considering harsher penalties for extremism.
Russian Ministry of Justice's proposal to toughen penalties for "extremism" has been approved.
US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK.
US President Trump signed a decree to reinstate the death penalty at the federal level.
Putin and Xi Jinping discussed the situation around Ukraine and relations with the US.
Negotiations with the US will take place when the Trump administration receives appropriate signals.
China invited Putin to celebrate in Beijing in September 2025.
Ukrainian MP Horbenko stated Ukraine may lose the Donetsk region by 2027.
Ukrainian and US officials are planning to hold talks in early February.
A phone call between Zelensky and Trump may take place within a week.
EU will continue economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months.
Zelensky stated Europe needs to be more active in energy independence.
Zelensky stated Europe should have a place at the table in war and peace agreements.
Zelensky stated there are 608,000 Russian troops in Ukraine.
Zelensky stated Putin will demand a fivefold reduction in the Ukrainian army.
Zelensky named Ukraine's strategy on the path to peace.
Head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, visited a tank division and a motorized rifle brigade.
General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces organized a course on operational law.
Reports of Israeli PM Netanyahu announcing a military operation in Jenin.
Reports of the resignation of the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces.
Moldovan authorities are building a new military base near Bacioi.
Zelensky stated Europe must take a seat at the table in war and peace agreements.
A survey showed 32% of Ukrainians have a xenophobic attitude towards Russian citizens.
Russian MoD reported Gerasimov visited a tank division and a motorized rifle brigade.
Israel has reportedly begun a new military operation on the West Bank.
Reports of atrocities by Ukrainian forces against civilians in Russkoye Porechnoye.
Oleksandr Kots reported Zelensky expressed doubt that Europe would participate in peace talks.
SBU detained the chief psychiatrist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on suspicion of corruption.
Russian Defense Minister Belousov has arrived in Tashkent for talks.
Hungary will support the extension of sanctions against Russia for 6 months.
New reports indicate drone movements in various regions.
Russian MoD reports air defense systems shot down seven Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea.
The commander of the operational-tactical group "Kharkiv" Yuri Galushkin has been placed under house arrest.
Russian MoD confirmed the Buk-M3 system shot down HIMARS projectiles.
Updated Situation
The military situation remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure. Donetsk region is the focal point, with critical situations in Toretsk and advances around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk and ongoing drone warfare add complexity. Potential Trump-Putin meeting adds uncertainty. Ukrainian forces are inflicting losses but face challenges. North Korean involvement reported. Geopolitical developments, including Slovak Parliament Vice-Speaker's comments, highlight the complex international landscape. Drone movements indicate continued threat. Putin-Xi meeting and China's invitation to Putin are significant. Ukrainian officials express urgency and uncertainty. Ukrainian forces repelled a major Russian assault in Kursk. Renewed shelling of Kupiansk is concerning. Ukrainian strike deep inside Russian territory reported. Detention of Ukrainian military psychiatrist on corruption charges. Russian Defense Minister's visit to Tashkent is notable. Widespread drone operation targeting multiple regions. Air defense systems engaging threats in Kyiv.
Recommendations
Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems. Assess the situation in Toretsk and reinforce Pokrovsk.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics against Russian drones. Deploy air defense and early warning radars in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts, Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, Belotserkovsky district, near Akhtyrka, and in the Kupyansky and Berislavsky districts, Kyiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions. Issue public alerts.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance protection of energy facilities and gas storage facilities.
Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance, including long-range missiles, air defense, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Provide accurate and timely information to the public.
Address the Situation in Kursk: Reassess strategy and consider redeploying forces.
Verify North Korean Involvement: Investigate reports and gather intelligence.
Prepare for Increased Missile Attacks: Enhance air defense and early warning capabilities.
Address the Psychological Impact on Children: Develop programs to address the psychological impact of the conflict.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on internal disagreements and logistical issues.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Deploy additional infantry, anti-tank weapons, and utilize artillery and HIMARS.
Stabilize the Front: Improve coordination and ensure strategic defensive positions.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Deploy air defense around major cities and critical infrastructure.
Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Secure additional military and financial aid, emphasizing air defense.
Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Utilize drones and surveillance to monitor enemy movements.
