Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 21, 2025, 18:38 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region is the focal point, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with reports suggesting a complete Russian victory, although Ukrainian forces continue to resist. Ukrainian defenses in Toretsk are reportedly collapsing, with less than 15% of the city under their control. The encirclement of Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka is a significant threat, with Russian forces within 10 kilometers of Pokrovsk and cutting key supply lines. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to target Russian troops near Velyka Novosilka, with Russian forces approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the milk factory, gas station, dormitory, and airfield. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are continuing their assault on Dachne and are preparing a strike force on Ulakly. Ukrainian forces are reportedly not withdrawing, despite their last normal road being under fire. "Azov" forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks in the Pokrovsk direction, described as more like raids before retreating without securing positions. Fighting continues near Uspenivka, Udachne, and Kotlyno, with some progress reported near Myrnohrad from Mykolaivka. In the Donetsk region, the area of Dmytrovo (Kotlyno) – Udachne is a focus of Russian operations, with assaults continuing towards a mine and factory, and attacks towards Hryshyno and Serhiivka. Fighting is ongoing in the center of Udachne, and south of Udachne, Russian units are advancing towards Novoserhiivka.

Ukrainian counteroffensives in the Kursk region have stalled, with Russian forces making a 10-kilometer breakthrough and capturing several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino. Video evidence confirms the complete liberation of Nikolayevo-Daryino. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking. Drone warfare is intensifying, with extensive activity across multiple regions, including attacks deep inside Russian territory, particularly in Smolensk. The Ukrainian Air Force reports new drone activity across multiple oblasts. Drone attacks have targeted oil refineries in Saratov, Kazan, Engels, and military and energy facilities in Bryansk and Rostov. There are reports of a new Russian drone, "KUB-2", being used, which is claimed to be more powerful than the "Lancet". The geopolitical landscape is complex, with potential meetings between Trump and Putin adding uncertainty. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the movement of hostile drones, with new groups of attack drones reported moving in the Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, and Chernihiv regions. The Kyiv City Military Administration reported enemy drones on the outskirts of Kyiv, with air defense systems active in the city. Explosions have been reported in Kyiv. The Ukrainian Air Force reported an enemy drone over Kyiv, urging residents to remain in shelters. An air alert was declared for Kyiv and a number of regions due to the threat of drone and missile attacks. Air defense systems are reported to be operating on the left bank of Kyiv.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Toretsk: Ukrainian defenses are nearing collapse, with less than 15% of the city under their control. Russian forces have entered Petrivka and are pushing Ukrainian troops out. Video evidence shows the 2nd Mechanized Battalion fighting on the ruins of Toretsk, engaging in close-quarters combat. Ukrainian forces are reportedly losing control of the city. Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian troops. Ukrainian forces, specifically the "Totem" unit of the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, successfully targeted a Russian soldier in an armored Niva vehicle with a drone. Russian forces have reportedly advanced another 300 meters and taken control of the Toretska mine, with fighting ongoing in the central part of the mine. In Petrivka, Russian forces advanced 600 meters, with fighting ongoing in the central part of the settlement.
Pokrovsk: Russian forces are within 10 kilometers of the city and continue efforts to encircle it, reportedly cutting the penultimate railway line. The city hospital is being relocated to Kryvyi Rih, suggesting preparations for a potential siege. Russian forces are consolidating positions after capturing Kotlyno (Dmytrovo) and mine No. 2. The main pressure is currently on Udachne, with ongoing battles in the city center, near the railway station, and towards Novoserhiivka. Russian artillery is heavily shelling Krasnoarmiisk (Pokrovsk). Video evidence shows Russian forces from the 35th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade engaging Ukrainian positions near Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces are attempting to bypass Pokrovsk from the west through small villages and forest belts, aiming to disrupt Ukrainian logistics.
Kurakhove: Most of Kurakhove is reportedly under Russian control, with fighting ongoing near Hryshyno. Russian forces continue clearing operations in liberated territory and report destroying a group of Ukrainian forces during a retreat using drones. On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near several settlements, with 14 enemy attacks repelled. Russian forces are engaging in active combat near Kurakhovo, specifically south of Petropavlivka, with a reported advance of up to 700 meters on the northern flank of Kurakhovo.
Velyka Novosilka: Russian forces are closing in on the city from three directions, with the last supply road under their control. Ukrainian forces are attempting to use drones to target Russian troops in a ruined structure. Russian forces are approximately 4.5 km from the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. A video shows drone footage of multiple explosions in a rural area near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces are attacking in the area of the milk factory, gas station, dormitory, and airfield. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka. Russian forces conducted a double strike on Ukrainian vehicles near Velyka Novosilka. Video evidence shows the mass destruction of armored vehicles and enemy infantry near the boiler room of Velyka Novosilka.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces have captured around half of the city's urban area, including the Novyi district, and are engaged in fighting in the Severnyi district. They have also cleared the basements and workshops of the Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant and control approximately 20% of its territory. Video evidence shows Russian forces continuing to advance in Chasiv Yar. Video shows Russian forces fighting for a high-rise building near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Video evidence shows fighters from the "Española" brigade, alongside the 98th Airborne Division and the 200th Motorized Rifle Brigade, engaging in combat in Chasiv Yar.
Kramatorsk: The city experienced a powerful explosion in the industrial zone, with the number of casualties rising to eight. Kramatorsk is also experiencing power outages.
Zaporizhzhia: A drone was reported flying towards Zaporizhzhia from Dnipropetrovsk, but an air raid alert has been lifted. An air raid alert has been reissued for the Zaporizhzhia region.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of guided aerial bombs (KAB) in the direction of Kostiantynivka (Donetsk region).

Kursk Region

Stalled Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, resulting in heavy losses estimated at up to 48,000.
Russian Advances: Russian forces have liberated several settlements, including Nikolayevo-Daryino, and are advancing in the Sudzha area. Video evidence shows Ussuri paratroopers raising a flag in Nikolayevo-Daryino, confirming its complete liberation. Russian forces report the capture of Cherkasskoye Porechnoye and Malaya Loknya. Heavy fighting continues near the village of Nikolsky, with Russian forces approaching Malaya Loknya and Ukrainian forces counterattacking.
Intense Fighting: Reports indicate ongoing active fighting, with Ukrainian forces concentrating significant resources in the Sudzha area. Refugees from the Kursk region are protesting and demanding a meeting with the acting governor.
Drone Warfare: Ukrainian forces used drones to record the bodies of North Korean and Russian troops in Kursk Oblast. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting and destroying a hidden NATO armored vehicle during an assault on Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces using drones to clear an area of Russian soldiers near Glubokoye. Ukrainian forces, particularly the 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" in collaboration with the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, repelled a major mechanized assault by Russian forces in the region. A video shows drone footage of multiple explosions in a rural area, with the "Smuglyanka" unit reportedly adjusting strikes and guiding pilots. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian 2S1 "Carnation" self-propelled howitzer in the Kursk region, but the operator misses the target. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone operator from the "Sever" group targeting a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier near Yuzhnoye in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows that Ukrainian forces are using drones to destroy a column of Russian armored vehicles near the border between Kursk and Sumy regions. Video evidence shows Russian forces successfully employing a "Stugna-P" ATGM system against enemy vehicles in the region. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area. Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction. Movement of Enemy Equipment in Kursk Oblast: From 6 AM until the time of this report, there has been a significant movement of various enemy equipment in Kursk Oblast. Some of this equipment has been destroyed. Video evidence shows a Russian drone operator targeting a Ukrainian armored vehicle in the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian tank being destroyed by a Russian drone in the Kursk region. Video evidence from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows electronic warfare specialists of a separate motorized infantry brigade of the "Sever" group detecting and shooting down Ukrainian UAVs in the Kursk region border area. Video evidence from "WarGonzo" shows a special report on a Russian Su-34 fighter-bomber of the Russian Aerospace Forces striking a concentration of Ukrainian equipment and personnel in the border area of the Kursk region. Video evidence shows a Russian 2A65 "Msta-B" howitzer targeting and destroying a Ukrainian M119 howitzer near Dachne with a "Krasnopol" guided projectile.
North Korean Involvement: South Korean intelligence reports that 300 North Korean soldiers have been killed in the Kursk region. Ukrainian forces report the capture of a North Korean soldier. Video evidence allegedly shows the bodies of approximately 20 North Korean soldiers.
Russian forces report finding the mutilated bodies of elderly people in Russkoe Porechnoe.

Kharkiv Region

Clashes and Airstrikes: Clashes are reported along the Kharkiv axis, with Russian airstrikes targeting several settlements.
Drone Attacks: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts. A Russian drone reportedly attacked the Shevchenkivskyi district of Kharkiv, injuring one person. One drone is approaching Balakliia.
Explosions in Kharkiv: Explosions were reported in Kharkiv and Chuhuiv districts. A fire broke out in a two-story building in the Vysochansk community due to a Russian attack.
Russian Advance: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the city of Borova is under threat of a guided aerial bomb (KAB) attack, and that enemy tactical aviation is launching guided aerial bombs in Sumy and the east of Kharkiv region.
Kupiansk is under renewed heavy shelling, with reports of deteriorating security conditions. The enemy is using various weapons, including drones and multiple rocket launchers.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Zolochiv.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka and are advancing towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. They have also advanced northwest of Makiivka. Russian forces have reportedly taken the heights behind Makiivka (LPR).
Borova Direction: Ukrainian forces have established positions northeast and east of Zelenyi Hai.
Encirclement Attempt: Russian forces are reportedly attempting to encircle a Ukrainian grouping near Nadiia.
Russian forces have dislodged Ukrainian units from a strategic height near Makiivka.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported in the Krasnyi Lyman - Ivanivka area. Russian forces have reportedly expanded their control zone on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanivka by up to 2 km.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports of numerous drone attacks across various regions, with new groups of attack drones reported and specific movements detailed. Video evidence shows Russian FPV drones, equipped with fiber optics, destroying a Ukrainian Leopard tank and a stronghold.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, which are more resistant to electronic warfare. Russia is reportedly using a new drone-kamikaze called "KUB-2", which is claimed to be more powerful than the "Lancet".
Smolensk Under Attack: Multiple sources report a series of explosions in Smolensk, with at least seven powerful explosions reported. The target is believed to be the Yartsevo oil refinery. Ukrainian drones reportedly attacked the Smolensk Aviation Plant.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that over the past day, air defense systems intercepted 17 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in various regions, including LPR, DPR, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions.
Ukrainian forces utilized drones to target and destroy Russian military equipment and personnel.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported the end of the threat of airstrikes in the southern regions.
New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region.
There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.

Missile Attacks

Reports of a new guided aviation missile heading towards Lebedyn and Poltava.
Reports of repeated ballistic missile launches towards Kryvyi Rih.
The Ukrainian Air Force reports that guided aerial bombs have been launched towards Kherson region and the city of Kherson.

Geopolitical Developments

The US State Department claims that new sanctions against Russia are more effective than recognizing it as a state sponsor of terrorism.
The Vice-Speaker of the Slovak Parliament compared Biden and Zelensky to "dying horses" and stated that only Putin and Trump can resolve the Ukrainian issue.
A TASS report states that an agreement between Russia and Iran includes aspects of defense and security.
Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán stated that Ukraine no longer exists without Western financial support.
President of Panama, Jose Raul Mulino, states that the Panama Canal belongs to Panama and will remain under Panamanian control.
Zelensky met with the speaker of the Lithuanian parliament to discuss continued support for Ukraine.
Senator Marco Rubio was officially approved as head of the US State Department.
Donald Trump said he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin, but did not specify a date.
Donald Trump, in the Oval Office, told reporters that he plans to meet with Vladimir Putin after the relevant negotiations are established, adding that the process is already underway. He also expressed his intention to achieve an end to the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Trump signed a law to stop aid to foreign countries for 90 days. This law also affects Ukraine.
The US has officially exited the WHO and the Paris Climate Agreement.
French President Macron stated that the conflict in Ukraine will not end in the near future and that Europe must be at the negotiating table. He also called for increased recruitment of volunteers into the French army.
Russia expects that Trump and the leadership of Panama, during discussions, will respect the current international legal regime of the Panama Canal, stated Ryabkov to TASS.
The flag above the US Embassy in Moscow was raised by order of Trump.
Trump has suspended US aid to other countries for 90 days to conduct checks to determine whether they are in line with his political goals.
Armenia has no intention of leaving the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), as participation in the organization provides economic benefits, stated the Speaker of the Parliament, Alen Simonyan.
BRICS is strong enough to withstand the threats of the new US President, stated the Russian Ambassador to Indonesia.
Putin and Xi Jinping held a video conference. This is their second contact in the last few days.
The Russian Foreign Ministry reports that Russia and China have reached an unprecedented level of relations and are ready to cooperate to create a more just multipolar world order.
Negotiations between Putin and Xi Jinping are ongoing, Peskov told TASS.
The State Duma is considering imposing harsher penalties for extremism, with criminal liability potentially applying even for first-time offenses committed online, possibly leading to up to five years in prison.
The Russian Ministry of Justice's proposal to toughen penalties for "extremism" has been approved by the government commission.
The US is preparing to deploy nuclear weapons in the UK for the first time in 15 years, according to The Telegraph.
US President Trump signed a decree to reinstate the death penalty at the federal level in the US and ordered all states to be provided with a sufficient amount of the drug for lethal injections.
Putin and Xi Jinping had an extensive and friendly conversation, which lasted 1 hour 35 minutes, Ushakov said. They discussed the situation around Ukraine and the countries' relations with the United States, taking into account Trump's coming to power.
Negotiations with the United States will take place when the Trump administration receives appropriate signals, said the aide to the Russian president.
China invited Putin to celebrate in Beijing in September 2025 the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan and the end of World War II, Ushakov said.
A Ukrainian parliament member from the "Servant of the People" party, Ruslan Horbenko, stated that Ukraine may lose the Donetsk region by the end of 2027 if the level of support from partners remains the same. He also mentioned that Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions could be under threat if the pace of the enemy's advance does not change.
Ukrainian and US officials are reportedly planning to hold talks in early February during a "Ukrainian Week" event in Washington, D.C. The leader of the "Servant of the People" faction, Davyd Arakhamia, stated that these talks will involve discussions with the new Trump team.
A phone call between Zelensky and Trump may take place within a week, according to Ukrainian sources.
EU will continue economic sanctions against Russia for another 6 months.
Zelensky stated that Europe needs to be more active and do more long-term work to ensure true energy independence, and that it is wrong to continue buying gas from Moscow while expecting security guarantees, assistance, and support from the Americans.
Zelensky stated that Europe should have a place at the table when agreements on war and peace are made, not just be an observer.
Zelensky stated that there are currently 608,000 Russian troops in Ukraine, three times more than at the beginning of 2022. He also mentioned that 40% of the aid to Ukrainian troops on the battlefield is Ukrainian production, about 40% is from the US, and a little less than the US is from Europe.
Zelensky stated that Putin will demand a fivefold reduction in the Ukrainian army, but Ukraine will not allow this. He also believes that Putin will pressure the US to ensure Ukraine does not join NATO and pressure all allies to pressure Kyiv.
Zelensky named Ukraine's strategy on the path to peace, emphasizing the need for strong security guarantees that would prevent Putin from returning with war.
Head of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, visited a tank division and a motorized rifle brigade of the "Center" group of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk direction, presented state awards, and received reports from commanders.
The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces reported that a course on operational law was organized for representatives of the legal service of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
Reports of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announcing the start of a military operation called "Iron Wall" in Jenin, West Bank.
Reports of the resignation of the Chief of the General Staff of the Israel Defense Forces, Herzi Halevi, and the Commander of the Southern Military District, Yaron Finkelman, following the Hamas attack on October 7.
The Moldovan authorities are actively building a new military base near the village of Bacioi, close to the airport and the capital, Chisinau. The base is expected to be completed by 2028, with major structures operational by the end of 2025. The project is worth 17.6 million euros, with 9.2 million euros already allocated for 2024-2025. The base is located 25 km from the border with Transnistria.
Ukrainian President Zelensky stated that Europe must take a seat at the table when agreements on war and peace are made, not just post on social media after the fact.
A survey by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KMIS) showed that 32% of Ukrainians have a xenophobic attitude towards Russian citizens and 17% towards Russian-speaking people.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that the Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, Valery Gerasimov, visited a tank division and a motorized rifle brigade of the "Center" group of forces in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.
Israel has reportedly begun a new military operation on the West Bank, called "Iron Wall."
Reports of atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces against civilians in Russkoye Porechnoye.
Oleksandr Kots reported that Zelensky expressed doubt that Europe would participate in peace talks on Ukraine and criticized the US for not worrying about whether Europe would remain an ally.
The SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) reportedly detained the chief psychiatrist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleg Druz, on suspicion of corruption. He is also the deputy head of the Central Military Medical Commission and allegedly acquired over a million dollars worth of assets through illicit means.
Reports that Russian Defense Minister Belousov has arrived in Tashkent for talks with his Uzbek counterpart.
Hungary will support the extension of sanctions against Russia for 6 months because Trump wants it to, according to journalist Rikard Jozwiak.
New reports indicate drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. One drone is approaching Rivne, another is near Sloviansk, and three are in the Poltava region.
There are reports of one drone flying from the Belotserkovsky district into the Vinnitsa region, one drone near Akhtyrka, two new drones moving west through the Kupyansky district, and four new drones moving from the Berislavsky district towards Novy Bug.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that air defense systems shot down seven Ukrainian UAVs over Crimea.
The commander of the operational-tactical group "Kharkiv" Yuri Galushkin has been placed under house arrest by the Pechersk District Court of Kyiv. He was also given the opportunity to post bail in the amount of 5 million hryvnias.
The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the Buk-M3 anti-aircraft system of the Tsentr Group of Forces shot down HIMARS MLRS projectiles in the Krasnoarmeysk direction.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces maintaining offensive pressure across multiple fronts. The Donetsk region remains the focal point of intense fighting, with Russian forces making incremental gains around Pokrovsk and Velyka Novosilka. The situation in Toretsk is particularly critical, with unconfirmed reports suggesting a complete Russian victory. The stalled Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region and the ongoing drone warfare, including attacks deep inside Russia, further complicate the situation. The potential meeting between Trump and Putin adds another layer of uncertainty to the conflict's future. Ukrainian forces continue to resist, inflicting significant losses on Russian troops and equipment, but the overall situation remains challenging. The reported Ukrainian losses of 1690 personnel, 10 tanks, 42 armored vehicles, 19 artillery systems, 3 air defense systems, 153 UAVs, 87 vehicles, and 6 units of special equipment highlight the intensity of the fighting. The reported destruction of Ukrainian air defense systems (two Buk-M3 and two Tor-M2) in the south is also a significant development. The involvement of North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region, as reported by South Korean intelligence and Ukrainian sources, adds a new dimension to the conflict, suggesting a potential expansion of foreign involvement on the Russian side. The geopolitical developments, particularly the comments from the Slovak Parliament's Vice-Speaker, highlight the increasingly complex international landscape surrounding the conflict. The new reports of drone movements, especially in the Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Poltava, and Sumy regions, indicate a continued threat to these areas. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts highlight the ongoing danger posed by these drones. The new reports about Putin's conversation with Xi Jinping and his potential meeting with Trump, as well as China's invitation to Putin to celebrate the 80th anniversary of the victory over Japan, are significant geopolitical developments. The new statements from Ukrainian officials about potential territorial losses and upcoming talks with the Trump team underscore the urgency and uncertainty facing Ukraine. The reported repelling of a major Russian assault in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces, particularly the 47th Mechanized Brigade and the 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade, is a significant tactical victory for Ukraine. This successful defense, involving the destruction of numerous enemy vehicles and personnel, demonstrates the effectiveness of Ukrainian forces in utilizing combined arms tactics, particularly the integration of artillery, infantry, and drones. The renewed heavy shelling of Kupiansk and the reported worsening security situation there are concerning developments. The use of various weapons, including drones and multiple rocket launchers, highlights the intensity of the Russian attacks in the area. The new video from "Радіо Свобода" showing satellite images of an oil depot in the Tula region that was hit by a drone on the night of January 18 is significant. The report that at least one fuel tank was damaged indicates a successful Ukrainian strike deep inside Russian territory. This attack further demonstrates Ukraine's ability to target critical infrastructure far beyond the front lines. The detention of the chief psychiatrist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on corruption charges is a significant development. The reports of his alleged illicit gains and his role in determining the fitness of conscripts could have far-reaching implications for the Ukrainian military's manpower and morale. This incident underscores the challenges of maintaining integrity and combating corruption within the military, especially during wartime. The arrival of Russian Defense Minister Belousov in Tashkent for talks with his Uzbek counterpart is a notable geopolitical development. This visit could signal an attempt by Russia to strengthen its ties with Uzbekistan, potentially seeking support or cooperation in the context of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The new reports of drone movements in Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions, along with reports of drones near Akhtyrka, Belotserkovsky district, Kupyansky district, and Berislavsky district, indicate a widespread and coordinated drone operation targeting multiple regions. The Ukrainian Air Force's alerts for Kyiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions highlight the imminent threat posed by these drones. The new reports of drone attacks in Kyiv and the surrounding areas, with air defense systems actively engaging the threat, highlight the continued vulnerability of the capital and the ongoing threat posed by Russian drones. The successful interception of these drones is a positive development for Ukraine's air defense capabilities.

Recommendations

Reinforce Pokrovsk and Toretsk: Urgently deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Pokrovsk and Toretsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region. Given the unconfirmed reports of a Russian victory in Toretsk, a thorough assessment of the situation on the ground is needed before determining the appropriate course of action. If Toretsk has indeed fallen, focus should shift to reinforcing Pokrovsk and establishing new defensive lines.
Enhance Counter-Drone Capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in Sumy, Chernihiv, and Poltava Oblasts. Given the new reports of drone activity, deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to Khmelnytskyi, Rivne, Poltava, and Sloviansk regions. Issue public alerts and ensure that civilians are aware of the threat and know how to respond. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones in the Belotserkovsky district, near Akhtyrka, and in the Kupyansky and Berislavsky districts. Issue public alerts and ensure that civilians are aware of the threat and know how to respond. Given the imminent threat, deploy additional air defense systems and issue public alerts for Kyiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk regions.
Secure Critical Infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities and gas storage facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents.
Strengthen International Support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology.
Counter Russian Information Operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public.
Address the Situation in Kursk: Given the significant losses and stalled counteroffensive, reassess the strategy in the Kursk region. Consider redeploying forces to more critical areas if necessary.
Verify North Korean Involvement: Investigate the reports of captured North Korean soldiers and gather intelligence on the extent of North Korean involvement in the conflict.
Prepare for Increased Missile Attacks: Enhance air defense systems and early warning capabilities to counter the threat of Russian ballistic and cruise missile attacks.
Address the Psychological Impact on Children: Develop programs and initiatives to address the psychological impact of the conflict on children, particularly in areas close to the front lines.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media, as well as the reported issues with Russian logistics and vehicle maintenance.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
Stabilize the Front: Address the issues highlighted regarding the difficulties in stabilizing the front. Improve coordination between units, particularly the newly formed brigades, and ensure that defensive positions are strategically advantageous.
Protect Civilian Infrastructure: Given the repeated targeting of civilian infrastructure, enhance measures to protect these areas. Deploy additional air defense systems around major cities and critical infrastructure to mitigate the impact of Russian airstrikes and drone attacks.
Increase Diplomatic Efforts: Continue engaging with international partners to secure additional military and financial aid. Highlight the need for advanced weaponry, particularly air defense systems, to counter Russian air superiority and protect civilian populations.
Enhance Reconnaissance and Intelligence: Improve reconnaissance capabilities to better anticipate Russian movements and intentions. Utilize drones and other surveillance technologies to monitor enemy positions and movements, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
Address Logistical Challenges: Ensure that supply lines remain open and secure, particularly for fuel, ammunition, and medical supplies. Address the reported issues with vehicle maintenance and repair.
Address the Desertion Crisis: Investigate the reasons behind the high desertion rates and take immediate steps to address the underlying issues. This may involve improving conditions for soldiers, addressing morale problems, and ensuring effective leadership.
Improve Communication and Training: Address the captured soldier's concerns about poor communication and training within the Ukrainian military. Implement measures to improve communication channels and provide better training to soldiers, particularly new recruits.
Counter the Drone Threat: Develop strategies to counter drone attacks on Russian territory and protect Ukrainian territory from similar attacks. This may involve deploying additional air defense systems, improving early warning capabilities, and enhancing electronic warfare capabilities to jam or intercept incoming drones.
Prepare for Further Drone Attacks: Given the continued drone activity across multiple regions in Ukraine and the new attacks on Engels, maintain a high level of readiness and ensure that air defense systems are operational and prepared to engage incoming drones.
Enhance Cooperation with International Partners: Share information about the drone attacks with international partners and seek their assistance in developing counter-drone technologies and strategies.
Diplomatic Pressure: Increase diplomatic efforts to highlight the complexities of the conflict and the need for a balanced approach.
Monitor and Respond to Drone Activity: Maintain vigilance and continue to monitor drone activity across all regions. Ensure that air defense systems are on high alert and prepared to engage incoming drones.
Address the Drone Threat in Chernihiv, Poltava, and Dnipropetrovsk: Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones. Issue public alerts and ensure that civilians are aware of the threat and know how to respond.
Monitor North Korean Missile Tests: Pay close attention to North Korea's missile tests and assess their potential impact on the conflict in Ukraine. Coordinate with South Korea and other allies to monitor the situation and develop appropriate responses.
Assess US Political Developments: Analyze the potential implications of the proposed bill to "buy Greenland" and its impact on US foreign policy and strategic interests. Consider how this move might affect US-Russia relations and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
Develop a Strategy to Counter Iran's Drone Capabilities: Given the reported advancements in Iran's drone technology, develop a comprehensive strategy to counter this threat. This could involve diplomatic efforts to prevent the transfer of these drones to Russia, as well as enhancing Ukraine's own drone and counter-drone capabilities.

Situation Report