Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 15, 2025, 22:07 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with intense fighting across multiple fronts. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have captured several key locations and are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, achieving a significant 10-kilometer breakthrough. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. A massive missile attack earlier today targeted multiple regions across Ukraine. The tempo of strikes is ongoing, evidenced by recent reports of air defense activity in Kyiv Oblast and a new air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, with Ukrainian sources acknowledging the city's loss.
Toretsk on the Brink: Ukrainian control in Toretsk is reduced to less than 15%, with Russian assault groups penetrating Ukrainian defenses. The situation is described as chaotic, with close-quarters combat.
Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having captured several surrounding settlements and nearing the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. They are less than 10 kilometers from the city and are attempting to cut the T 0406 highway.
Other Significant Gains: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, Ivanivka, Yantarne, Ukrainka, and Peschanoye. They report further advances near numerous other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with a high number of combat clashes. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, severely disrupting Ukrainian logistics. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces have eliminated 1,510 Russian soldiers, bringing the total estimated Russian personnel losses since February 24, 2022, to approximately 809,760. Additionally, Ukrainian forces destroyed 8 tanks, 26 armored fighting vehicles, 37 artillery systems, 1 MLRS, 2 air defense systems, 183 UAVs, and 110 vehicles and fuel tanks.
Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant, with reports of Ukrainian soldiers trapped in a "fire pocket."
Kramatorsk Strike: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with the number of casualties rising to eight.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Intense battles are ongoing, particularly near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are fighting for Uspenivka.
Ukrainian Strikes: The Ukrainian General Staff reports successful high-precision strikes on Russian command posts in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka.
Casualties: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties in the Donetsk region.
New: Russian forces are concentrating on Kotlyne, attempting to bypass and encircle Pokrovsk. They are targeting the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road with drones, including those equipped with fiber optics.
New: Heavy fighting is reported in Lysovka, Promyn, Myrolyubivka, and Yelyzavetivka. Russian forces are advancing towards Tarasivka and Zelyone Pole.
New: The Ukrainian General Staff reports that since the beginning of the day, there have been 118 combat clashes. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repulse the enemy's attempts to advance deep into Ukrainian territory, inflicting fire damage on them. The invaders launched one missile and 33 air strikes on the territory of Ukraine, used 44 missiles and dropped 46 guided aerial bombs. In addition, they used more than 900 kamikaze drones for the attack and carried out more than 4,400 attacks on the positions of Ukrainian troops and populated areas.
New: On the Toretsk direction, the Russians stormed the positions of Ukrainian units in the areas of Bila Hora, Toretsk, and Krymske nine times. The enemy launched air strikes with KABs on Kramatorsk, Ivanopillia, Druzhkivka, Kostiantynivka, and Petrivka.
New: On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy attacked in the areas of the settlements of Baranivka, Myroliubivka, Promin, Novyi Trud, Shevchenko, Udachne, Kotlyne, Petropavlivka, Stari Terny, Yantarne, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Uspenivka, Andriivka, and Dachne. Ukrainian defenders stopped 41 enemy assaults. Six more attacks are ongoing. According to preliminary data, 340 occupiers were neutralized in this direction today, 129 of them irretrievably. Two tanks, 10 vehicles, one mortar, an electronic warfare system, two armored fighting vehicles, and one armored reconnaissance vehicle were also destroyed. In addition, two tanks, five vehicles, and three Russian guns were damaged.
New: On the Novopavlivka direction, the enemy tried to break through the defense of Ukrainian defenders in the Vremivka area four times. Three battles are still ongoing.
New: On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy attacked the positions of Ukrainian defenders in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Shcherbaky four times. The enemy hit Piatykhatky with NARs.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Alexandria, Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Makhnovka, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have arrived in the region.
Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of Ukrainian forces near Pogrebki and reserves in the Sumy region.
Significant Losses: Russian sources claim significant Ukrainian losses in the region, including personnel, equipment, and captured soldiers.
New: Russian forces report inflicting significant losses on Ukrainian formations, including various brigades. Ukrainian losses are estimated at over 51,900 personnel since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk direction.
New: Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian positions, with reports of a Russian armored vehicle destroyed north of Sumy.
New: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone teams targeting Ukrainian vehicles and positions in the Kursk region.
New: From the beginning of the day, there were 15 combat clashes in the Kursk direction; all attacks have already been repulsed. The enemy launched ten air strikes using 15 KABs and carried out more than 300 shellings.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya.
Stabilized Situation: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka.
New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.
New: On the Kharkiv direction, the enemy stormed the positions of Ukrainian units twice in the areas of Vovchansk and Tykhy.
New: On the Kupiansk direction, the aggressor carried out offensive actions in the areas of the settlements of Kindrashivka, Zahryzove, Topoli, and Petropavlivka, where Ukrainian defenders stopped five enemy attacks.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanovka, attempting to capture heights near Terny and storming Zahryzove. They have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are moving towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
New: Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.
New: On the Lyman direction, Russian invaders attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 16 times near the settlements of Kopanky, Novoserhiivka, Tverdokhlibove, Makiivka, Kolodiazi, Terny, and Hryhorivka. Two combat clashes are ongoing. Enemy aircraft struck with unguided rockets at Zelenyi Hai.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity continues, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with a state of emergency declared.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables. New Russian drones, including the "Pirahna-13" and a new launch system for the "Lancet" series, have been introduced.
New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
New: A drone attack on an oil depot in Voronezh Oblast, Russia, has been confirmed, with local sources reporting the target as an oil depot in Liski.
New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements across multiple oblasts.
New: Four drones are circling near Voznesensk. Two drones are west of Zaporizhzhia, heading northeast. One drone is circling east of Cherkasy. Two drones are heading toward/through Chernihiv. One drone flew past Pryluky into the Kyiv region.
New: The rest: One drone is circling west of Voznesensk. Two drones are south of Kamianske, heading northwest. Three drones from the Chernihiv region are moving to the north of the Kyiv region. One drone flew past Pryluky into the Kyiv region.

Other Developments

Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine within a Eurasian context. The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico. Israeli President Herzog called on the government to approve an agreement with Hamas.
Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry.
Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia.
New: Reports of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast, Russia.
Cybersecurity: Reuters reports that TikTok is preparing to cease operations in the US on January 19th if the Supreme Court does not overturn the ban.
Economic: The Moex index on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 2,900 points.
New: Bloomberg reports that Putin will demand that Ukraine never join NATO and become a neutral state with a limited army in negotiations with Trump.
New: Almost 70% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces were transferred by the West, according to Zelensky.
New: The UN Security Council will meet tomorrow regarding Ukraine.
New: The outgoing Biden administration hopes that the Trump team will keep anti-Russian sanctions in place.
New: The future head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, said that the war in Ukraine increases the risk of the US being drawn into a conflict with a nuclear country.
New: Zelensky met with the Ukrainian community in Warsaw. Unity of Ukrainians, Ukraine's European integration course, joint steps with partners, and support for everything Ukrainian. "We must together defend our people and Ukrainian independence by teaching children Ukrainian, using public diplomacy, expanding the Global Coalition of Ukrainian Studies, preserving and disseminating knowledge about Ukraine," the head of state said.
New: According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, 33-34% of weapons in Ukraine are domestically produced. "Less than 30% are from Europe, and about 40% are from the USA," the head of state said in an interview with Polish media. When asked if he was disappointed with the model of gradual military assistance from the US under Joe Biden, Zelensky replied that he could not act alone.
New: The Russian army retaliated for the attack on the "Turkish Stream" by striking the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine, the Russian Ministry of Defense stated. In response to Ukraine's attacks deep into Russian territory with long-range ATACMS missiles (USA) and Storm Shadow cruise missiles (Britain), as well as an attempt to attack the "Russkaya" compressor station in the village of Gai-Kodzor (Krasnodar region) in order to disrupt the supply of gas through the "Turkish Stream" pipeline, on the morning of January 15 this year, the Russian Armed Forces launched a group strike with high-precision weapons against critically important objects of the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine. One of the successfully hit targets was the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in the city of Stryi, Lviv region. The Russian troops continue to constantly monitor the situation, and any provocations by the Kyiv regime will not go unanswered.
New: Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out 32 attacks on settlements in the Donetsk People's Republic over the past day, firing 108 rounds of ammunition, resulting in three civilians being injured, according to the Ukrainian War Crimes Documentation Department of the Administration of the Head and Government of the Donetsk People's Republic.
New: Macron, like Zelensky, no longer serves his state, Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia Andrej Danko said in an interview with TASS. "It offends me when Western countries, for example, France, say that they are able to supply us with nuclear fuel, but this fuel actually comes from Russia," he added.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area and have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The ongoing drone attacks and the threat of further missile strikes highlight the continued intensity of the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations in Kyiv Oblast, along with the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicate that the tempo of strikes remains high. The diplomatic and political developments, including the reported demands from Putin regarding Ukraine's neutrality, Zelensky's statements regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces, and the UN Security Council meeting, underscore the complex geopolitical context of the conflict. The new messages confirm the significant role of Western-supplied weaponry in Ukraine's defense, with approximately 70% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces reportedly coming from Western partners. This highlights Ukraine's dependence on continued Western military aid to sustain its war effort. The meeting of the UN Security Council regarding Ukraine underscores the continued international attention on the conflict and the potential for further diplomatic efforts to address the situation.

The new messages do significantly alter the overall strategic assessment and reinforce the ongoing trends:

Continued Russian Pressure: The reports of fighting near Kotlyne and the targeting of the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road confirm the Russian focus on encircling Pokrovsk and disrupting Ukrainian logistics. The significant number of combat clashes reported by the Ukrainian General Staff (118 in the last 24 hours) underscores the intensity of the fighting and the pressure on Ukrainian forces.
Intensified Drone Warfare: The increased use of drones, including those with fiber optics, highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare and the challenges faced by both sides in countering these threats. The reports of multiple drones near Voznesensk, west of Zaporizhzhia, east of Cherkasy, and heading toward/through Chernihiv and Pryluky into the Kyiv region indicate widespread drone activity and potential attacks on multiple fronts.
Attacks Deep Inside Russia: The confirmed drone attack on the oil depot in Voronezh Oblast demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
Persistent Air Threat: The reports of drone activity and air defense operations underscore the persistent threat of air attacks across Ukraine. The air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, now lifted, further emphasizes the ongoing threat of air attacks in the region.
Geopolitical Maneuvering: The reports on Putin's demands and the UN Security Council meeting highlight the ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering surrounding the conflict. Zelensky's meeting with the Ukrainian community in Warsaw and his statement regarding the percentage of Western weaponry used by Ukrainian forces underscore the importance of international support and Ukraine's continued efforts to maintain unity and secure further assistance. The reported retaliation by the Russian army for the attack on the "Turkish Stream" by striking the gas-energy infrastructure of Ukraine, including the ground infrastructure of the largest underground gas storage facility in Stryi, Lviv region, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development highlights the increasing targeting of critical infrastructure and the potential for further attacks on energy facilities. The statement by the Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia, Andrej Danko, criticizing Macron and Zelensky and claiming that Western countries are supplying nuclear fuel that actually comes from Russia, adds another layer of complexity to the geopolitical landscape. This statement could potentially strain relations between Slovakia and its Western allies and further complicate the issue of energy dependence on Russia.
Significant Escalation: The Russian Ministry of Defense's statement regarding the retaliatory strike on Ukraine's gas-energy infrastructure, including the underground gas storage facility in Stryi, marks a significant escalation in the conflict. This development indicates a shift towards targeting critical infrastructure and could have far-reaching consequences for Ukraine's energy security and the broader European energy market.
Propaganda and Disinformation: The statement by the Deputy Speaker of the National Council of Slovakia, criticizing Macron and Zelensky and claiming that Western countries are supplying nuclear fuel that actually comes from Russia, could be interpreted as an attempt to sow discord among Ukraine's allies and undermine support for Kyiv. This statement should be viewed critically and verified through independent sources.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The continued intensification of drone warfare and the threat of further missile and air strikes pose significant challenges to Ukrainian defenses. The targeting of critical infrastructure, particularly energy facilities, adds another dimension to the conflict and could have significant implications for Ukraine's economy and civilian population.

Situation Report