Situation Report

Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 15, 2025, 21:37 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine continues to be highly volatile, with intense fighting across multiple fronts. Russian forces maintain offensive momentum, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have captured several key locations and are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk. The situation in Toretsk remains critical, with Russian forces controlling the majority of the city. In the Kursk region, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, and Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, achieving a significant 10-kilometer breakthrough. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with widespread activity and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. A massive missile attack earlier today targeted multiple regions across Ukraine. The tempo of strikes is ongoing, evidenced by recent reports of air defense activity in Kyiv Oblast and a new air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, with Ukrainian sources acknowledging the city's loss.
• Toretsk on the Brink: Ukrainian control in Toretsk is reduced to less than 15%, with Russian assault groups penetrating Ukrainian defenses. The situation is described as chaotic, with close-quarters combat.
• Pokrovsk Threatened: Russian forces are advancing towards Pokrovsk, having captured several surrounding settlements and nearing the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast border. They are less than 10 kilometers from the city and are attempting to cut the T 0406 highway.
• Other Significant Gains: Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, Ivanivka, Yantarne, Ukrainka, and Peschanoye. They report further advances near numerous other settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Intense Fighting: The Ukrainian General Staff reports intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with a high number of combat clashes. The highway between Dmytrov (Myrnohrad) and Konstantinovka has been cut, severely disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
• Chasiv Yar: Russian forces control approximately 20% of the refractory plant, with reports of Ukrainian soldiers trapped in a "fire pocket."
• Kramatorsk Strike: A powerful explosion was reported in the industrial zone of Kramatorsk, with the number of casualties rising to eight.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Intense battles are ongoing, particularly near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are fighting for Uspenivka.
• Ukrainian Strikes: The Ukrainian General Staff reports successful high-precision strikes on Russian command posts in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka.
• Casualties: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties in the Donetsk region.
• New: Russian forces are concentrating on Kotlyne, attempting to bypass and encircle Pokrovsk. They are targeting the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road with drones, including those equipped with fiber optics.
• New: Heavy fighting is reported in Lysovka, Promyn, Myrolyubivka, and Yelyzavetivka. Russian forces are advancing towards Tarasivka and Zelyone Pole.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses.
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, capturing Russkoye Porechnoye and assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. They have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements, including Alexandria, Leonidovo, and Novoivanovka.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, Makhnovka, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have arrived in the region.
• Enemy Reserves: Intelligence suggests a concentration of Ukrainian forces near Pogrebki and reserves in the Sumy region.
• Significant Losses: Russian sources claim significant Ukrainian losses in the region, including personnel, equipment, and captured soldiers.
• New: Russian forces report inflicting significant losses on Ukrainian formations, including various brigades. Ukrainian losses are estimated at over 51,900 personnel since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk direction.
• New: Ukrainian forces are using drones to target Russian positions, with reports of a Russian armored vehicle destroyed north of Sumy.
• New: Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone teams targeting Ukrainian vehicles and positions in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova and in Dvurichna, expanding their bridgehead south of Dvorechnaya.
• Stabilized Situation: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka.
• New: Ukrainian forces report burning a Russian T-80 tank in the Kharkiv region.
• New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of Russian drone attacks in Donetsk and Kharkiv Oblasts.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanovka, attempting to capture heights near Terny and storming Zahryzove. They have expanded their zone of control on the right bank of the Zherebets River and are moving towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
• New: Russian forces are advancing northwest of Makiivka, controlling a forest area between settlements and moving towards Hrekivka.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Widespread drone activity continues, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with a state of emergency declared.
• New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables. New Russian drones, including the "Pirahna-13" and a new launch system for the "Lancet" series, have been introduced.
• New Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv.
• New: A drone attack on an oil depot in Voronezh Oblast, Russia, has been confirmed, with local sources reporting the target as an oil depot in Liski.
• New: The Ukrainian Air Force reports drone movements across multiple oblasts.

Other Developments

• Diplomatic: Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is ready to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine within a Eurasian context. The Slovak opposition plans to announce a vote of no confidence in the government of Robert Fico. Israeli President Herzog called on the government to approve an agreement with Hamas.
• Personnel: Ukrainian MP Marianna Bezuglaya reported that personnel from the Air Force are being transferred to the infantry.
• Industrial Sabotage: Ukrainian forces confirmed a strike on a chemical plant in Bryansk, Russia.
• New: Reports of a drone attack on an oil refinery in Voronezh Oblast, Russia.
• Cybersecurity: Reuters reports that TikTok is preparing to cease operations in the US on January 19th if the Supreme Court does not overturn the ban.
• Economic: The Moex index on the Moscow Exchange exceeded 2,900 points.
• New: Bloomberg reports that Putin will demand that Ukraine never join NATO and become a neutral state with a limited army in negotiations with Trump.
• New: Almost 70% of the weapons used by the Ukrainian Armed Forces were transferred by the West, according to Zelensky.
• New: The UN Security Council will meet tomorrow regarding Ukraine.
• New: The outgoing Biden administration hopes that the Trump team will keep anti-Russian sanctions in place.
• New: The future head of the CIA, John Ratcliffe, said that the war in Ukraine increases the risk of the US being drawn into a conflict with a nuclear country.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area and have made a 10-kilometer breakthrough. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The ongoing drone attacks and the threat of further missile strikes highlight the continued intensity of the conflict. The new reports of drone activity and air defense operations in Kyiv Oblast, along with the air raid alert in Zaporizhzhia Oblast, indicate that the tempo of strikes remains high. The diplomatic and political developments, including the reported demands from Putin regarding Ukraine's neutrality and the UN Security Council meeting, underscore the complex geopolitical context of the conflict.

The new messages do not significantly alter the overall strategic assessment but reinforce the ongoing trends:

• Continued Russian Pressure: The reports of fighting near Kotlyne and the targeting of the Pavlograd-Pokrovsk road confirm the Russian focus on encircling Pokrovsk and disrupting Ukrainian logistics.
• Intensified Drone Warfare: The increased use of drones, including those with fiber optics, highlights the evolving nature of drone warfare and the challenges faced by both sides in countering these threats.
• Attacks Deep Inside Russia: The confirmed drone attack on the oil depot in Voronezh Oblast demonstrates Ukraine's continued ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
• Persistent Air Threat: The reports of drone activity and air defense operations underscore the persistent threat of air attacks across Ukraine.
• Geopolitical Maneuvering: The reports on Putin's demands and the UN Security Council meeting highlight the ongoing diplomatic and political maneuvering surrounding the conflict.

The overall situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation. The coming days and weeks will likely be crucial in determining the course of the conflict, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. The continued intensification of drone warfare and the threat of further missile and air strikes pose significant challenges to Ukrainian defenses.