Key Military Situation Update: January 12th, 2025, 16:24 UTC

Donetsk Region

Toretsk Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces confined to less than 15% of the city. Russian troops are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians, complicating defensive efforts. Ukrainian forces are trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory. The battle for Toretsk is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city. A kilometer of road near Toretsk is reportedly strewn with the corpses of Russian soldiers. Ukrainian forces report destroying a Russian infantry fighting vehicle in the Toretsk direction, using a drone. Video from the "Operatsiya Z" Telegram channel shows the 506th Regiment conducting an offensive near the city, resulting in heavy losses for Ukrainian forces. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device. Tank crews of the 63rd Brigade reportedly attacked Russian positions in the Serebryansky forest, firing from distances of up to 100 meters.
Kurakhove Mostly Captured: DeepState acknowledges the loss of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop. Russian marauders are filming instructions on how to rob apartments in Kurakhove. Video shows an assault on Kurakhovo by Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment. The video claims that the special forces destroyed a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers and capturing six.
Intense Fighting Near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with advances reported in multiple surrounding villages, including Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Heavy fighting is reported, with 33 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses today, 22 of which were repelled. More than 30 Russian attacks were carried out on the Pokrovsk direction. Urban fighting in Pokrovsk is not ruled out in the future. Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city. A quad bike drove through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction. Video from "Операция Z" shows the "String" of the "Brave" destroying enemy defenses while advancing towards Pokrovsk. The footage is from the 35th Brigade of the "Center" group. Ukrainian drone operators targeted and killed a Russian soldier in the Pokrovsk direction.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Confirmed Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of these settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces report shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area. Russian forces report they have advanced 500 meters near the South-Eastern mine near Chasiv Yar. Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Posts: Ukrainian forces report successful high-precision strikes on command posts of the 8th and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka, respectively. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that during the week, the Armed Forces of Ukraine had carried out a series of strikes on facilities captured by the Russian occupiers in the Donetsk Oblast.
Airspace Closure: The Horlivka-Yasynuvata highway has been temporarily closed due to continuous Ukrainian attacks.
Ballistic Missile Threat: A nationwide ballistic missile threat was declared across Ukraine, later lifted for most regions except Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced 300 meters west of Orlyanske. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. DeepState reports that Russian forces have advanced near Andriivka, Solone, and Novosilka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing. On the Pokrovsk direction, supported by aviation, Russian forces initiated 28 clashes of varying intensity, with Ukrainian forces repelling attacks near Tarasovka, Vodyanoye Vtoroye, Elizavetovka, Promin, Lysovka, Sukhoi Yar, Zelenoye, Novy Trud, and Pokrovsk. Five clashes are ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka.
Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection.
Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation reported in the Donetsk region.
Video footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting a Russian Ka-52 helicopter, though the attempt was unsuccessful.
Video evidence shows a Russian soldier filming the aftermath of a Ukrainian FPV drone strike on a Russian vehicle in the Donetsk region, indicating casualties among the Russian assault group.
Video evidence of Russian forces destroying Ukrainian infantry with a drone near Dachne.
Video evidence from the 12th "Azov" Brigade shows drones and a tank targeting Russian forces during a mechanized assault in the Toretsk direction. The video claims that the Ukrainian forces repelled the attack, destroying several armored vehicles, including BMPs and an MT-LB.
Video evidence of an aerial battle between two Ukrainian "Mavic" drones and a Russian "Baba Yaga" drone on the Seversk direction. The reconnaissance drone rammed the "Baba Yaga", causing it to crash.
Video evidence shows a Russian artillery strike on a Ukrainian position in Novoselivske, with secondary explosions.
Video from "Сливочный каприз" details an attack by Russian motorized rifle units in the direction of Petrivka, near Horlivka. Russian forces reportedly advanced more than 500 meters along the left bank of the Kryvyi Torets River.
Artillerymen of the "Dnepr-1" fire support regiment of the "Lute" Joint Assault Brigade of the National Police of Ukraine are firing at the positions of the Russians in the city of Toretsk.
Work of FPV drones on enemy manpower and equipment in the Dzerzhinsky direction was carried out by fighters of the 132nd brigade of the 51st Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Armed Forces.
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had carried out a precision strike on the command post of the 3rd Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces in the occupied city of Svitlodarsk, Donetsk Oblast. The coordinates are reported as 48.435522,38.213416.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.

Kursk Region

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of up to 48,000 casualties. Ukrainian forces report repelling a Russian assault near Kurdyumivka in the Bakhmut area. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region. The attack involved about 50 units of equipment. The assault was carried out in six waves. The Ukrainian forces successfully repelled the attack, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. Zelensky stated that the Kursk operation was one of the main victories, not only last year, but throughout the war.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Sudzha, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting continues in multiple locations, with both sides suffering significant losses. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Prisoners Captured: Russian forces report capturing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers, including 13 from the 82nd Brigade and almost 30 paratroopers near Volchansk. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. A battle for Pogrebki was documented, showing the use of drones and close-quarters combat.
Losses: Russian forces claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days. Since the beginning of hostilities, the Russian MoD claims the AFU has lost over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 90 EW stations, and other equipment in the Kursk region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Reports indicate that statements about the complete liberation of Makhnovka are premature, with heavy fighting ongoing. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka.
Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka: In the Kursk region, paratroopers from the 106th Airborne Division are conducting active assault operations in the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
A civilian from a village in the Kursk region reported that soldiers from western Ukraine burned houses in his village.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that the enemy lost up to 190 fighters, an ammunition depot, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier in the Kursk region during the day.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that since the beginning of hostilities in the Kursk region, the AFU has lost more than 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 218 infantry fighting vehicles, 161 armored personnel carriers, 1,517 armored fighting vehicles, 1,435 vehicles, 348 artillery guns, 44 MLRS launchers, including 13 HIMARS and 6 MLRS made by the USA, 16 anti-aircraft missile launchers, eight transport-loading vehicles, 90 EW stations, 13 counter-battery warfare radars, four air defense radars, 29 units of engineering and other materiel, including 15 counter-obstacle vehicles, one UR-77 mine clearing vehicle, seven armored recovery vehicles, and one command post vehicle.
A German Leopard 2A6 tank was destroyed in the Kursk region.
"АРХАНГЕЛ СПЕЦНАЗА Z" reports that enemy groups attempted to infiltrate from Cherkasskoye Porechnoye but were repelled by artillery fire. Enemy reserves are reportedly being brought into Lebedevka and Sverdlikovo, and the use of "Baba Yaga" agricultural drones for reconnaissance is mentioned.
Video from "БУТУСОВ ПЛЮС" shows footage of Russian soldiers suffering losses in the Kursk region.
Video from "Colonelcassad" shows the 155th brigade of the Russian marines destroying Ukrainian manpower and equipment in the Kursk direction.
Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.
Special Forces soldiers destroyed a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk direction, capturing several Ukrainian soldiers. The captured soldiers are from the 57th and 82nd Brigades.
Video of a Russian Su-34 bomber destroying a Ukrainian stronghold in the Kursk border area.
Video of an FPV drone of the Russian group of troops "Sever" destroying a US-made Bradley BMP in the border area of the Kursk region.
The Russian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian forces lost more than 280 people and two tanks in the Kursk region during the day.
Video evidence of the Russian Ministry of Defense showcasing the work of the TOS-2 "Tosochka" heavy flamethrower system, which reportedly nullifies enemy attempts to hide from thermobaric munitions. The video features the TOS-2 "Tosochka" in service with the Group of Forces "Vostok," targeting Ukrainian Armed Forces positions near Velyka Novosilka. The soldiers praise the new vehicle for its accuracy, range, and maneuverability.
A video from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows a captured Ukrainian soldier in the Kursk region stating that his unit requested evacuation but was denied by their command. The soldier claims they lost half their personnel and were eventually captured.
The enemy is attempting to reinforce the defense of Kositsa with additional equipment and personnel.
The situation in Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, Martynovka, Agronom, and Pogrebki remains unchanged.
The enemy attempted to attack with two armored personnel carriers near Makhnovka but was destroyed by an FPV drone.
In Kurshchyna, Ukrainian defenders repelled 25 enemy attacks.
Terrible consequences of enemy aggression in the Kursk region: commissions begin work to assess the destruction in the border area. In the Kursk region, commissions are starting to work on assessing the degree of destruction of residential buildings in the border areas affected by attacks and the invasion of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This applies to those settlements that were not included in the list of non-commission issuance of certificates to residents. The Ministry of Defense provided the first list of 158 settlements where commissions can go. At least 16 of them (in 4 districts) have houses destroyed or damaged as a result of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the governor of the Kursk region reports.
Calculation of FPV drones of the Rubikon center destroyed the Ukrainian self-propelled guns in the Kursk direction.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Counterattack: The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area but were unsuccessful.
On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry. Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian attack and destroyed a US-supplied M113 armored personnel carrier near Kupyansk.
Russian aviation conducted airstrikes at Oleksandrivka, Vovchanski Khutory, Sadovod, Hryhorivka, Khatnye, Pischane, Kurylivka, Borivsk Andriyivka, Zelenyy Hay, Verkhnokamyanske, Mayske, Druzhba, Scherbynivka, Serhiyivka, Andriyivka, Toretsk, Kostyantynivka, Temyrivka, Velyka Novosilka, Kherson.
FPV drone team of Sever Group of Forces reportedly wipes out AFU buggy in Kharkiv region. Drone operators of the group of troops "Sever" destroyed an enemy pickup truck in the Kharkiv region.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka. They report advances near Makeevka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.
Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare

Widespread Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with new explosions reported and a state of emergency declared.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Drone Activity in Multiple Oblasts: Drone movements are reported in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast. A drone is reported to be approaching Vosresenske. A drone is also reported to be flying over Mykolaiv.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts, as well as in Anapa and Novorossiysk. Drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. Drone attacks are also reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga.
Air Defense Activity: Russian air defenses report destroying 40 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region overnight and 16 in the Rostov region. Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with 43 drones, all of which were shot down. This indicates a continued effort by Ukraine to target Russian-occupied territory and test Russian air defenses.
Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.
A video shows the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers using FPV drones by the 110th Mechanized Brigade.
Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot.
Ukrainian forces report destroying 3 Russian BTRs.
Video evidence shows Ukrainian forces targeting Russian positions with drones, resulting in multiple explosions and fires.
Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with reports of a drone being shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia and an attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer with three separate strikes.
A video from the 25th Airborne Brigade shows a Ukrainian soldier placing an explosive charge on the roof of a dugout where enemy soldiers are hiding.
A video shows a night-time drone strike on enemy positions by a Ukrainian "Vampire" drone.
Video evidence shows Russian FPV drone operators targeting Ukrainian positions and vehicles in various locations, including Nikolaevka and Goptovka.
Video evidence shows a Ukrainian drone operator targeting a Russian soldier with an FPV drone. The soldier is seen running away from the drone before being hit.

Geopolitical Developments

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23. It is also reported that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have begun. Telephone negotiations between Putin and Trump may occur in the near future.
US-Ukraine: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela.
EU-Syria: EU foreign ministers will discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Poland-Slovakia-Russia: Poland denied a Slovakian parliamentary delegation's flight to Moscow passage through its airspace. The delegation was forced to fly through Germany and Czechia. A Slovak delegation flew to Moscow at the invitation of the Russian State Duma, but an unexpected incident occurred - at Poland's request to allow them to fly through Polish airspace, the Poles refused. The Slovaks were forced to turn around and make a detour through Czechia and Germany.
Trump's Potential Greenland Annexation: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option.
Ukraine's Manpower Issues: Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues and that their draft age is not 18.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. Fico also threatened to take "tough measures" against Ukraine if the issue of gas transit is not resolved.
UK and Latvia Drone Supply: During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
Germany's Missile Transfer: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius.
US-Ukraine Discussions: As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine.
Trump's Stance on Greenland: Leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that the idea of annexing Greenland to the US, promoted by Trump, is bad and will not be implemented. US President-elect Donald Trump has openly stated not only his desire to make Canada the 51st state but also his readiness to use force, albeit economic for now.
US Legal Action: A US court has sentenced a Canadian citizen to 3.5 years in prison for allegedly illegally exporting electronic equipment to Russia.
Migration Crisis: Western countries, particularly English-speaking ones, are facing a significant migration crisis, with potential impacts on labor, housing, and social spending.
Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak Prime Minister Fico has praised his visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies as a positive outcome. He also accused Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
Western Support for Ukraine: A Foreign Policy op-ed by Stephen Walt suggests that supporters of Kyiv in the West may soon face a debate on "Who Lost Ukraine" after the conflict ends.
US-France Meeting: US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron discussed unwavering support for Ukraine and concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
BRICS Data: Data on contracts of international organizations, primarily the BRICS New Development Bank, may appear on the public procurement website.
Ukraine-Poland Relations: Ukraine has, for the first time, permitted Poland to conduct exhumations of those who died in Volyn during World War II, according to the Prime Minister of Poland.
Bulgarian Territorial Claims: The leader of the Bulgarian Revival party, Kostadin Kostadinov, has called for the annexation of Southern Bessarabia (part of the Odesa region) to Bulgaria, citing the presence of a Bulgarian population in the area.
Poland continues to strengthen the security of the sky in the area of the logistics hub in Rzeszów: If in December Norwegian NASAMS arrived at the airbase, now they are also waiting for Patriot air defense systems from Germany. At the end of January, Berlin will complete the transfer of two MIM-104 Patriot air defense systems and 200 Bundeswehr soldiers to Rzeszów to service them.

Other Key Developments

Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26.
Collaborators: Collaborators are forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories to be conscripted into the Russian army.
Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction.
Zaporizhzhia: A man and a woman were wounded in a Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia. A shop, private houses, and cars were damaged. A civilian bus was attacked in the Sumy region by a Russian drone, resulting in two injuries.
Alleged Corruption in Ukraine: Reports of Ukrainian generals owning mansions in Los Angeles that burned down in wildfires have surfaced, fueling allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military. This could have negative implications for morale and international support.
Bus Accident in Ilovaisk: A bus accident in Ilovaisk resulted in multiple casualties, highlighting the dangers faced by civilians in the conflict zone. The driver has been charged with violating traffic rules. The number of victims in the bus accident in the DPR has increased to 33.

Updated Situation Summary

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement.

Changes from New Messages

Increased Fighting: The General Staff reports 75 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with over 30 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk direction alone. This indicates an intensification of fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region.
Slovak Delegation to Moscow: A Slovak parliamentary delegation flew to Moscow, but Poland denied them passage through its airspace. They had to reroute through Germany and Czechia. This highlights the growing divisions within the EU regarding relations with Russia.
Trump-Putin Meeting Preparations: Advisor to former President Trump, Mike Waltz, confirmed that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin are underway. This could have significant implications for the conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Kellogg's Cancelled Visit: US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, reportedly canceled his visit to Kyiv due to disagreements with Zelensky's position on ending the conflict and the recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. This suggests a potential rift between the US and Ukraine regarding the strategy for ending the war.
Military Aid to Zaporizhzhia: In 2024, over 14,000 units of additional equipment and supplies were delivered to the military in the Zaporizhzhia direction, including communication equipment, power supplies, organizational equipment, components, and ammunition and equipment. This highlights the continued flow of military aid to Ukrainian forces.
Potential for Escalation in Somalia: The report on the counter-terrorism operation in Somalia suggests a potential for further escalation in the region, with the Islamic State expanding its influence and foreign fighters involved in the conflict.
Drone Attack in Crimea: Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with 43 drones, all of which were shot down. This indicates a continued effort by Ukraine to target Russian-occupied territory and test Russian air defenses.
Alleged Corruption in Ukraine: Reports of Ukrainian generals owning mansions in Los Angeles that burned down in wildfires have surfaced, fueling allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military. This could have negative implications for morale and international support.
Russian Soldier's Testimony: A captured Ukrainian soldier's testimony reveals poor training, low morale, and a broken chain of command within the Ukrainian military. This information could be used by Russia for propaganda purposes and to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense.
Bus Accident in Ilovaisk: A bus accident in Ilovaisk resulted in multiple casualties, highlighting the dangers faced by civilians in the conflict zone. The driver has been charged with violating traffic rules.
Drone Activity: A drone has been reported approaching Vosresenske and flying over Mykolaiv.
Potential US Strikes on Russian Territory: Trump may lift restrictions on Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American weapons, according to Mike Waltz. This could signal a major escalation in US involvement and a potential widening of the conflict zone.
Lowering of Mobilization Age: There is a call from Trump's advisor to lower the mobilization age in Ukraine to 18, which could significantly increase the number of available troops for Ukraine but also raise ethical and social concerns.
Russian Advance Towards Dnipropetrovsk: Russian forces are reportedly approaching the Dnipropetrovsk region, bypassing the expected heavy urban fighting in Pokrovsk. They are currently less than 7 km from a highway leading into the region. This suggests a strategic shift to encircle Pokrovsk and cut off supply lines, potentially forcing a Ukrainian withdrawal.
Drone Attack on Russian Territory: Ukrainian forces targeted a reconnaissance drone storage warehouse at the "PlasFaktor" enterprise in the Rostov region, indicating continued efforts to disrupt Russian operations deep within its territory.
HIMARS Strike on Russian Air Defense: Ukrainian forces used a HIMARS system to successfully target a Russian "Buk" air defense system, highlighting the continued effectiveness of this weapon system in targeting high-value assets.
Fundraising for Russian Units: A volunteer group is raising funds to provide essential equipment, including body armor, helmets, radios, and night vision devices, to Russian units, including the "Volki" brigade, an artillery division, and reconnaissance units in the Zaporizhzhia direction. This highlights the continued reliance on non-governmental support to equip Russian forces.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldier: A captured Ukrainian soldier, Andrei Zabarata, detailed his experience of being detained at a bus stop, forced through a medical examination despite health problems, and sent to the front lines with minimal training. He describes a chaotic situation where his unit was surrounded, received conflicting orders, and ultimately surrendered. This provides a firsthand account of the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, including poor training, low morale, and a breakdown in command.
Drone Attack on Civilian Bus: A Russian drone attacked a civilian bus in the Sumy region, injuring two passengers. This highlights the continued threat to civilians in the conflict zone and the indiscriminate nature of Russian attacks.
Recruitment of Actor Artyom Kalaidjyan: Russian actor Artyom Kalaidjyan has joined the "Healthy Fatherland" movement in Donetsk, emphasizing the importance of patriotic education for youth. This suggests an effort to bolster support for the war effort through cultural figures and youth mobilization.
Testimony of Soldier Who Survived Rabotino: A Ukrainian soldier who participated in the battles for Rabotino reported that out of 600 men in his battalion, only 36 survived, with most of the casualties occurring within five days. This highlights the intensity of the fighting in the area and the heavy losses suffered by Ukrainian forces.
Drone Tactics in Crimea: Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with 43 drones, using a new tactic of approaching from multiple directions and flying over the sea to avoid detection. All drones were shot down by Russian air defenses, demonstrating the effectiveness of Russian countermeasures but also highlighting the evolving tactics used by Ukraine.
Bot Activity: Reports of bot activity manipulating online polls related to video game content and violence, potentially for propaganda purposes.
Diplomatic Efforts: Preparations are underway for a potential meeting between Trump and Putin, with the possibility of a phone call in the coming days or weeks. This could have significant implications for the conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Potential Agreement on Ukraine: The US believes that any agreement on Ukraine must include "security guarantees" to prevent a repetition of the conflict. This suggests a potential shift in the US position and a willingness to consider a negotiated settlement.
Trump's Recognition of Russian Position: Trump reportedly recognizes the unreality of the idea of "expelling" Russia from the former territories of Ukraine. This suggests a potential willingness to accept Russian territorial gains in any future negotiations.
**Drone Attack Near Vosk

Situation Report