Key Military Situation Update: January 12th, 2025, 16:00:00 UTC

Donetsk Region:

Toretsk Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces confined to less than 15% of the city. Russian troops are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians, complicating defensive efforts. Ukrainian forces are trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory. The battle for Toretsk is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city.
Kurakhove Mostly Captured: DeepState acknowledges the loss of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
Intense Fighting Near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with advances reported in multiple surrounding villages, including Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Heavy fighting is reported, with 33 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses today, 22 of which were repelled. More than 30 Russian attacks were carried out on the Pokrovsk direction. Urban fighting in Pokrovsk is not ruled out in the future. Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city. A quad bike drove through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Confirmed Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of these settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces report shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Posts: Ukrainian forces report successful high-precision strikes on command posts of the 8th and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka, respectively.
Airspace Closure: The Horlivka-Yasynuvata highway has been temporarily closed due to continuous Ukrainian attacks.
Ballistic Missile Threat: A nationwide ballistic missile threat was declared across Ukraine, later lifted for most regions except Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced 300 meters west of Orlyanske. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. DeepState reports that Russian forces have advanced near Andriivka, Solone, and Novosilka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka.
Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection.

Kursk Region:

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of up to 48,000 casualties.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Sudzha, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting continues in multiple locations, with both sides suffering significant losses. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Prisoners Captured: Russian forces report capturing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers, including 13 from the 82nd Brigade and almost 30 paratroopers near Volchansk. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. A battle for Pogrebki was documented, showing the use of drones and close-quarters combat.
Losses: Russian forces claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days. Since the beginning of hostilities, the Russian MoD claims the AFU has lost over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 90 EW stations, and other equipment in the Kursk region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Reports indicate that statements about the complete liberation of Makhnovka are premature, with heavy fighting ongoing.

Kharkiv Region:

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Counterattack: The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area but were unsuccessful.
On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry.

Luhansk Region:

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka. They report advances near Makeevka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.

Drone Warfare:

Widespread Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with new explosions reported and a state of emergency declared.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Drone Activity in Multiple Oblasts: Drone movements are reported in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast. A drone is reported to be approaching Vosresenske. A drone is also reported to be flying over Mykolaiv.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts, as well as in Anapa and Novorossiysk. Drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. Drone attacks are also reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga.
Air Defense Activity: Russian air defenses report destroying 40 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region overnight and 16 in the Rostov region.

Geopolitical Developments:

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23. It is also reported that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have begun. Telephone negotiations between Putin and Trump may occur in the near future.
US-Ukraine: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela.
EU-Syria: EU foreign ministers will discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Poland-Slovakia-Russia: Poland denied a Slovakian parliamentary delegation's flight to Moscow passage through its airspace. The delegation was forced to fly through Germany and Czechia. A Slovak delegation flew to Moscow at the invitation of the Russian State Duma, but an unexpected incident occurred - at Poland's request to allow them to fly through Polish airspace, the Poles refused. The Slovaks were forced to turn around and make a detour through Czechia and Germany.
Trump's Potential Greenland Annexation: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option.
Ukraine's Manpower Issues: Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues and that their draft age is not 18.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. Fico also threatened to take "tough measures" against Ukraine if the issue of gas transit is not resolved.
UK and Latvia Drone Supply: During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
Germany's Missile Transfer: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius.
US-Ukraine Discussions: As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine.
Trump's Stance on Greenland: Leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that the idea of annexing Greenland to the US, promoted by Trump, is bad and will not be implemented. US President-elect Donald Trump has openly stated not only his desire to make Canada the 51st state but also his readiness to use force, albeit economic for now.

Other Key Developments:

Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26.
Collaborators: Collaborators are forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories to be conscripted into the Russian army.
Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction.
Zaporizhzhia: A man and a woman were wounded in a Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia. A shop, private houses, and cars were damaged.

Updated Situation Summary:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement.

Changes from New Messages:

Increased Fighting: The General Staff reports 75 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with over 30 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk direction alone. This indicates an intensification of fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region.
Slovak Delegation to Moscow: A Slovak parliamentary delegation flew to Moscow, but Poland denied them passage through its airspace. They had to reroute through Germany and Czechia. This highlights the growing divisions within the EU regarding relations with Russia.
Trump-Putin Meeting Preparations: Advisor to former President Trump, Mike Waltz, confirmed that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin are underway. This could have significant implications for the conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Kellogg's Cancelled Visit: US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, reportedly canceled his visit to Kyiv due to disagreements with Zelensky's position on ending the conflict and the recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. This suggests a potential rift between the US and Ukraine regarding the strategy for ending the war.
Military Aid to Zaporizhzhia: In 2024, over 14,000 units of additional equipment and supplies were delivered to the military in the Zaporizhzhia direction, including communication equipment, power supplies, organizational equipment, components, and ammunition and equipment. This highlights the continued flow of military aid to Ukrainian forces.
Potential for Escalation in Somalia: The report on the counter-terrorism operation in Somalia suggests a potential for further escalation in the region, with the Islamic State expanding its influence and foreign fighters involved in the conflict.
Drone Attack in Crimea: Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with 43 drones, all of which were shot down. This indicates a continued effort by Ukraine to target Russian-occupied territory and test Russian air defenses.
Alleged Corruption in Ukraine: Reports of Ukrainian generals owning mansions in Los Angeles that burned down in wildfires have surfaced, fueling allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military. This could have negative implications for morale and international support.
Russian Soldier's Testimony: A captured Ukrainian soldier's testimony reveals poor training, low morale, and a broken chain of command within the Ukrainian military. This information could be used by Russia for propaganda purposes and to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense.
Bus Accident in Ilovaisk: A bus accident in Ilovaisk resulted in multiple casualties, highlighting the dangers faced by civilians in the conflict zone. The driver has been charged with violating traffic rules.
Drone Activity: A drone has been reported approaching Vosresenske and flying over Mykolaiv.
Potential US Strikes on Russian Territory: Trump may lift restrictions on Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory with American weapons, according to Mike Waltz. This could signal a major escalation in US involvement and a potential widening of the conflict zone.
Lowering of Mobilization Age: There is a call from Trump's advisor to lower the mobilization age in Ukraine to 18, which could significantly increase the number of available troops for Ukraine but also raise ethical and social concerns.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to Toretsk and Pokrovsk to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the defense of Pokrovsk to prevent further Russian advances in the Donetsk region.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take appropriate measures to prevent future breaches of operational security.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Prioritize the deployment of advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones, including the new fiber-optic-controlled drones. Invest in electronic warfare capabilities to counter drone threats.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants and energy facilities, to prevent potential catastrophic incidents. Deploy additional air defense systems to protect against drone and missile attacks. Target Russian energy infrastructure in response to attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower for sustained operations. Investigate and address the reported forced mobilization in Lviv to ensure ethical and legal recruitment practices. Consider lowering the mobilization age as suggested by Waltz, but carefully weigh the ethical and social implications.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners to sustain the war effort. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, including long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology. Leverage the commitment from the UK and Latvia to provide 30,000 drones and the German promise to transfer additional missiles for Iris-T air defense systems.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale among Russian forces and the public.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely, particularly in the Donetsk and Kursk regions.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly in areas where Russian forces are making advances or where Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the ongoing fighting in the Kursk region, be prepared for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Prepare contingency plans for a potential escalation of the conflict, including the possibility of attacks on critical infrastructure.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop morale, including desertion and forced mobilization.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage, particularly in drone warfare and counter-drone measures.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Due to the increased drone activity reported by the Ukrainian Air Force, enhance defenses and monitoring in Sumy Oblast to counter potential attacks. Deploy additional air defense systems and early warning radars to detect and intercept incoming drones.
Counter New Russian Tactics in Kursk: Given the reported shift in Russian tactics to using larger groups for assaults in the Kursk region, adjust Ukrainian defenses accordingly. Deploy additional infantry units, anti-tank weapons, and machine gun nests to counter these massed attacks. Utilize artillery and HIMARS to target troop concentrations and disrupt Russian advances.
Exploit Russian Command Weaknesses: Capitalize on reports of Russian commanders being detached from battlefield realities.
Address the attacks on energy infrastructure: Develop a plan to counter and respond to Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, such as the reported drone attacks on the "Turkish Stream" pipeline. This could involve enhancing air defenses around critical infrastructure, deploying electronic warfare systems to counter drone threats, and developing rapid repair capabilities to minimize disruptions to energy supplies.
Monitor the situation in Greenland: Keep a close eye on developments related to Greenland, particularly regarding potential US involvement and the reactions of other countries. Assess the potential strategic implications for the Arctic region and NATO's security posture.
Prepare for potential escalation in the Black Sea: Given the reported oil spill from sunken tankers reaching Berdyansk and the continued fighting in the region, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in the Black Sea. This could involve deploying additional naval assets, enhancing maritime surveillance capabilities, and developing contingency plans for responding to attacks on shipping or coastal infrastructure.
Assess the impact of the traffic accident in Kyiv: While not directly related to military operations, the traffic accident in Kyiv could impact logistics and emergency response capacity in the region. Assess the extent of the damage and any potential disruptions to transportation networks.
Counter Russian propaganda and disinformation: Continue to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation efforts, particularly regarding the forced mobilization of Ukrainian troops and the alleged mistreatment of prisoners of war. Provide accurate and timely information to the public and the international community to maintain support for Ukraine and counter Russian narratives.
Exploit Russian logistical challenges: Capitalize on reports of Russian forces experiencing shortages of armored vehicles on the eastern front. Target Russian supply lines and logistics hubs to further exacerbate these shortages and limit their ability to sustain offensive operations.
Enhance cooperation with international partners: Continue to work closely with international partners, particularly the US, UK, Germany, and Latvia, to secure additional military aid, including drones, air defense systems, and other advanced weaponry. Leverage these partnerships to enhance Ukraine's defense capabilities and counter Russian aggression.
Prepare for potential escalation along the border: Given the increased fighting in the Kursk region and the reported use of larger groups in assaults, prepare for the possibility of the conflict escalating along the border. Reinforce border defenses, deploy additional troops and equipment to vulnerable areas, and develop contingency plans for responding to cross-border attacks.
Monitor the situation in the Middle East: Keep a close eye on developments in the Middle East, particularly regarding the reported Houthi attack on a US aircraft carrier. Assess the potential implications for regional stability and any potential spillover effects on the conflict in Ukraine.
Address the potential blocking of bank deposits in Russia: Monitor the situation regarding the potential blocking of bank deposits in Russia and assess the potential impact on the Russian economy and its ability to finance the war effort. Consider potential countermeasures and strategies to mitigate the effects of such actions on Ukraine and its allies.
Exploit Russian internal tensions: Capitalize on reports of internal tensions within Russia, such as the attempted arson on Maidan and the growing discontent among the population. Support efforts to amplify these tensions and undermine the Russian regime's stability.
Enhance cyber warfare capabilities: Given the reported cyber attacks on Russian infrastructure, such as the Roseltorg trading platform, continue to invest in and enhance Ukraine's cyber warfare capabilities. Target Russian critical infrastructure, government networks, and propaganda outlets to disrupt their operations and sow confusion.
Prepare for long-term conflict: Given the protracted nature of the conflict and the unlikelihood of a quick resolution, develop a long-term strategy for sustaining Ukraine's war effort. This could involve diversifying sources of military and financial aid, building up domestic defense industries, and strengthening Ukraine's resilience to economic and social pressures.
Engage in diplomatic efforts: Continue to engage in diplomatic efforts to garner international support for Ukraine and isolate Russia. Push for stronger sanctions against Russia, particularly targeting its energy sector and financial institutions. Seek to build a broader coalition of countries committed to supporting Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Exploit Russian military weaknesses: Capitalize on reports of Russian military weaknesses, such as poor training, low morale, and inadequate equipment. Target these vulnerabilities through precision strikes, psychological operations, and information warfare to further degrade Russian combat effectiveness.
Enhance intelligence gathering: Invest in and improve intelligence gathering capabilities to better understand Russian troop movements, deployments, and intentions. Utilize human intelligence, signals intelligence, and aerial reconnaissance to gain a comprehensive picture of the battlefield and anticipate Russian actions.
Prepare for potential escalation in the information war: Given the ongoing information war between Russia and Ukraine, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in this domain. Develop strategies to counter Russian propaganda, disinformation, and cyber attacks, while also promoting Ukraine's narrative and maintaining public support both domestically and internationally.
Address the environmental impact of the conflict: Take steps to mitigate the environmental damage caused by the conflict, such as the oil spill reaching Berdyansk. Develop plans for cleaning up and restoring affected areas, and seek international assistance in these efforts.
Monitor the situation in Transnistria: Keep a close eye on developments in Transnistria, given its proximity to Ukraine and the potential for destabilization in the region. Assess any potential threats to Ukraine's security emanating from Transnistria and develop contingency plans accordingly.
Enhance border security: Strengthen border security measures to prevent infiltration by Russian forces and sabotage groups. Deploy additional border guards, improve surveillance capabilities, and construct fortifications along vulnerable stretches of the border.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of chemical weapons: Given reports of Russian forces using chemical weapons in the past, prepare for the possibility of further use of such weapons. Equip troops with protective gear, train them in decontamination procedures, and develop contingency plans for responding to chemical attacks.
Address the humanitarian crisis: Continue to address the humanitarian crisis caused by the conflict, particularly the displacement of civilians and the destruction of infrastructure. Provide assistance to those affected by the fighting, including food, shelter, medical care, and other essential services.
Enhance civil defense capabilities: Improve civil defense capabilities to protect the civilian population from the effects of the conflict. This could involve strengthening air raid warning systems, constructing bomb shelters, and training civilians in emergency response procedures.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of nuclear weapons: Given the heightened tensions between Russia and the West, prepare for the possibility, however remote, of the use of nuclear weapons. Develop contingency plans for responding to a nuclear attack, including evacuation procedures, medical treatment protocols, and measures to mitigate the long-term effects of radiation exposure.
Exploit Russian military casualties: Continue to publicize and highlight Russian military casualties to undermine morale among Russian troops and the public. Utilize captured Russian soldiers for propaganda purposes, showcasing their mistreatment by their own commanders and the futility of the war.
Enhance counter-artillery capabilities: Given the reported intensity of Russian artillery fire, invest in and improve counter-artillery capabilities. Deploy additional counter-battery radars, acquire longer-range artillery systems, and train troops in counter-artillery tactics to neutralize Russian artillery positions and reduce their effectiveness.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of ballistic missiles: Given the reported use of ballistic missiles by Russian forces, enhance air defense capabilities to counter this threat. Deploy additional anti-ballistic missile systems, such as Patriot or THAAD, and integrate them into a comprehensive air defense network.
Address the threat of infiltration by Russian special forces: Given the reported activities of Russian special forces, such as the "Grachi" detachment, enhance counter-infiltration measures. Deploy specialized units to hunt down and neutralize these groups, and improve intelligence gathering to identify their presence and movements.
Exploit Russian dependence on foreign fighters: Capitalize on reports of foreign fighters, such as North Koreans, being captured in the Kursk region. Utilize this information for propaganda purposes, highlighting the international condemnation of Russia's actions and the involvement of foreign mercenaries in the conflict.
Enhance cooperation with international intelligence agencies: Strengthen cooperation with international intelligence agencies, particularly those of NATO member states, to share information and coordinate efforts to counter Russian aggression. This could involve joint training exercises, the exchange of intelligence personnel, and the establishment of secure communication channels.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of electronic warfare: Given the reported use of electronic warfare by both sides, enhance Ukraine's electronic warfare capabilities. Invest in advanced jamming systems, electronic countermeasures, and cyber warfare tools to disrupt Russian communications, disable their drones, and protect Ukrainian networks from attack.
Address the threat of sabotage and terrorism: Given the reported increase in sabotage and terrorist activities, enhance security measures to protect critical infrastructure, government buildings, and public spaces. Deploy additional security personnel, improve surveillance capabilities, and conduct regular security drills to prepare for potential attacks.
Enhance strategic communication: Develop a comprehensive strategic communication plan to effectively convey Ukraine's narrative to domestic and international audiences. Utilize various channels, including social media, traditional media outlets, and diplomatic engagements, to counter Russian propaganda, maintain public support, and garner international assistance.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of drones: Given the increasing use of drones by both sides, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in this domain. Develop counter-drone tactics, deploy anti-drone systems, and invest in research and development of new drone technologies to maintain a competitive edge.
Exploit Russian economic vulnerabilities: Capitalize on reports of economic difficulties within Russia, such as the potential blocking of bank deposits. Target Russian financial institutions, energy companies, and other key sectors of the economy to exacerbate these vulnerabilities and undermine their ability to finance the war effort.
Enhance cooperation with international financial institutions: Work closely with international financial institutions, such as the IMF and the World Bank, to secure additional financial assistance for Ukraine. Utilize these funds to support the war effort, stabilize the economy, and rebuild damaged infrastructure.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of disinformation: Given the ongoing information war, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in the use of disinformation by Russia. Develop strategies to counter Russian disinformation campaigns, promote media literacy among the population, and work with international partners to expose and debunk false narratives.
Address the threat of internal destabilization: Given reports of internal tensions within both Russia and Ukraine, take steps to address potential sources of destabilization. Promote national unity, address social and economic grievances, and counter efforts by Russia to exploit internal divisions.
Enhance cooperation with international human rights organizations: Work closely with international human rights organizations to document and expose human rights abuses committed during the conflict. Utilize this information to hold Russia accountable for its actions and to garner international support for Ukraine.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of unconventional weapons: Given the unpredictable nature of the conflict, prepare for the possibility of Russia resorting to the use of unconventional weapons, such as biological or radiological weapons. Develop contingency plans for responding to such attacks, including medical treatment protocols, decontamination procedures, and public safety measures.
Exploit Russian military desertion: Capitalize on reports of Russian military desertion and low morale. Offer amnesty and safe passage to Russian soldiers who choose to defect, and utilize their testimonies for propaganda purposes to further undermine the Russian war effort.
Enhance cooperation with international cybersecurity experts: Work closely with international cybersecurity experts to protect Ukraine's critical infrastructure and government networks from cyber attacks. Share information on cyber threats and vulnerabilities, and collaborate on the development of defensive measures.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of proxy forces: Given the reported involvement of foreign fighters and mercenary groups, prepare for the possibility of Russia increasing its use of proxy forces. Develop strategies to counter these groups, including targeted strikes, intelligence gathering, and cooperation with international partners to track and disrupt their activities.
Address the threat of nuclear blackmail: Given Russia's nuclear arsenal and the potential for nuclear blackmail, develop a strategy for deterring and responding to such threats. This could involve strengthening Ukraine's conventional military capabilities, seeking security guarantees from nuclear-armed allies, and engaging in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Enhance cooperation with international arms control organizations: Work closely with international arms control organizations to monitor and verify compliance with existing arms control agreements. Push for stronger measures to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and to hold violators accountable.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of long-range missiles: Given the reported use of long-range missiles by both sides, enhance Ukraine's air defense capabilities to counter this threat. Deploy additional anti-missile systems, such as the S-300 and S-400, and integrate them into a comprehensive air defense network.
Address the threat of espionage: Given the ongoing intelligence war between Russia and Ukraine, enhance counterintelligence capabilities to detect and neutralize Russian spies and collaborators. Conduct thorough background checks on individuals in sensitive positions, monitor communications for signs of espionage, and work with international partners to share information on potential threats.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of naval forces: Given the strategic importance of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, prepare for the possibility of further escalation in naval operations. Deploy additional naval assets, enhance coastal defenses, and develop contingency plans for responding to attacks on shipping or ports.
Enhance cooperation with international maritime organizations: Work closely with international maritime organizations, such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO), to ensure the safety and security of shipping in the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. Push for stronger measures to deter and punish violations of international maritime law.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of air power: Given the reported use of air strikes by both sides, enhance Ukraine's air force capabilities. Acquire additional fighter jets, bombers, and attack helicopters, and train pilots in advanced air combat tactics.
Enhance cooperation with neighboring countries: Strengthen cooperation with neighboring countries, particularly Poland, Romania, and Moldova, to enhance regional security and coordinate responses to potential threats. This could involve joint military exercises, intelligence sharing, and the development of common defense strategies.
Prepare for potential escalation in the use of hybrid warfare: Given Russia's use of hybrid warfare tactics, including cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and the manipulation of energy supplies, enhance Ukraine's resilience to these threats. Develop strategies to counter hybrid warfare, including strengthening cyber defenses, promoting media

Situation Report