Key Military Situation Update: January 12th, 2025

Donetsk Region:

Toretsk Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces confined to less than 15% of the city. Russian troops are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians, complicating defensive efforts. Ukrainian forces are trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory. The battle for Toretsk is approaching its culmination, with Russian forces establishing a flag in the northern part of the city.
Kurakhove Mostly Captured: DeepState acknowledges the loss of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
Intense Fighting Near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with advances reported in multiple surrounding villages, including Novovasylivka, Yelyzavetivka, and Baranovka. Heavy fighting is reported, with 33 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses today, 22 of which were repelled. More than 30 Russian attacks were carried out on the Pokrovsk direction. Urban fighting in Pokrovsk is not ruled out in the future. Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city. A quad bike drove through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Confirmed Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of these settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces report shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP in the Chasiv Yar area.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Posts: Ukrainian forces report successful high-precision strikes on command posts of the 8th and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka, respectively.
Airspace Closure: The Horlivka-Yasynuvata highway has been temporarily closed due to continuous Ukrainian attacks.
Ballistic Missile Threat: A nationwide ballistic missile threat was declared across Ukraine, later lifted for most regions except Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, and Kurakhove. Advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne. Russian forces are advancing in the Krasnoarmiisk direction. Gains are also reported near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. Russian forces advanced 300 meters west of Orlyanske. Russian forces have reportedly advanced towards Kolodezi from Ivanivka on the Lyman axis. DeepState reports that Russian forces have advanced near Andriivka, Solone, and Novosilka.
On the Kramatorsk direction, Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks near Vasyukovka, Bondarnoye, Chasov Yar, and Stupochki, with five clashes ongoing.
On the Toretsk direction, three Russian attacks were reported near Toretsk, with one ongoing.
On the Kurakhiv direction, fierce battles are ongoing near Sribnoye, Andreevka, Kurakhovo, and Dachnoye, with 14 enemy attacks repelled.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles occurring near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces are making significant progress on the Dnipropetrovsk direction. They have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, in the Novoelizavetovskaya "branch," there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne. Russian forces control Yasenovoe. Near Slavyanka, Russian units have cleared several landings to the north and advanced towards the road to Andreevka.
Russian forces are advancing towards Vodyane Druhe and Tarasovka, with battles ongoing for Baranovka and Yelyzavetivka.
Russian forces advanced in Petrovka (Novospasskoe), west of Shcherbinovka.
Russian forces have liberated Ukrainka and are advancing towards Yasenovoye, with a foothold on the outskirts. They also control the Yasenovoye-Konstantinopol intersection.

Kursk Region:

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of up to 48,000 casualties.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Sudzha, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting continues in multiple locations, with both sides suffering significant losses. Active fighting is taking place in the area of Sudzha. An attack by the Russian Armed Forces in the settlement of Russkoye Porechnoye by an infantry unit was reported. The assault group was shelled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Russian Armed Forces advanced more than 2 km and reached the advanced positions near the village of Kositsa.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Prisoners Captured: Russian forces report capturing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers, including 13 from the 82nd Brigade and almost 30 paratroopers near Volchansk. 26 Ukrainian soldiers surrendered after a failed counterattack, according to Russian sources. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. A battle for Pogrebki was documented, showing the use of drones and close-quarters combat.
Losses: Russian forces claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days. Since the beginning of hostilities, the Russian MoD claims the AFU has lost over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 90 EW stations, and other equipment in the Kursk region.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Reports indicate that statements about the complete liberation of Makhnovka are premature, with heavy fighting ongoing.

Kharkiv Region:

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Counterattack: The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area but were unsuccessful.
On the Kupyansk direction, fighters from the 1st Tank Army disrupted an enemy rotation and hit an American M113 armored personnel carrier with infantry.

Luhansk Region:

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka. They report advances near Makeevka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic. Following the liberation of Ivanovka, Russian troops continued their advance southward along the opposite bank of the Zherebets River from Terny.

Drone Warfare:

Widespread Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with new explosions reported and a state of emergency declared.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Drone Activity in Multiple Oblasts: Drone movements are reported in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts, as well as in Anapa and Novorossiysk. Drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. Drone attacks are also reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga.
Air Defense Activity: Russian air defenses report destroying 40 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region overnight and 16 in the Rostov region.

Geopolitical Developments:

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23. It is also reported that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have begun. Telephone negotiations between Putin and Trump may occur in the near future.
US-Ukraine: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela.
EU-Syria: EU foreign ministers will discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Poland-Slovakia-Russia: Poland denied a Slovakian parliamentary delegation's flight to Moscow passage through its airspace. The delegation was forced to fly through Germany and Czechia. A Slovak delegation flew to Moscow at the invitation of the Russian State Duma, but an unexpected incident occurred - at Poland's request to allow them to fly through Polish airspace, the Poles refused. The Slovaks were forced to turn around and make a detour through Czechia and Germany.
Trump's Potential Greenland Annexation: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option.
Ukraine's Manpower Issues: Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues and that their draft age is not 18.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. Fico also threatened to take "tough measures" against Ukraine if the issue of gas transit is not resolved.
UK and Latvia Drone Supply: During the "Ramstein" meeting, UK Defense Minister John Healey and Latvian Defense Minister Andris Spruds announced that the UK will provide Ukraine with 30,000 drones, together with NATO allies.
Germany's Missile Transfer: Germany "in the shortest possible time" will transfer additional missiles to Ukraine for Iris-T air defense systems, according to the Minister of Defense Pistorius.
US-Ukraine Discussions: As part of the "Ramstein" meeting, US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss support for Ukraine.
Trump's Stance on Greenland: Leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. US State Secretary Antony Blinken stated that the idea of annexing Greenland to the US, promoted by Trump, is bad and will not be implemented. US President-elect Donald Trump has openly stated not only his desire to make Canada the 51st state but also his readiness to use force, albeit economic for now.

Other Key Developments:

Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26.
Collaborators: Collaborators are forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories to be conscripted into the Russian army.
Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.
Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction.
Zaporizhzhia: A man and a woman were wounded in a Shahed attack on Zaporizhzhia. A shop, private houses, and cars were damaged.

Updated Situation Summary:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement.

Changes from New Messages:

Increased Fighting: The General Staff reports 75 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, with over 30 Russian attacks on the Pokrovsk direction alone. This indicates an intensification of fighting, particularly in the Donetsk region.
Slovak Delegation to Moscow: A Slovak parliamentary delegation flew to Moscow, but Poland denied them passage through its airspace. They had to reroute through Germany and Czechia. This highlights the growing divisions within the EU regarding relations with Russia.
Trump-Putin Meeting Preparations: Advisor to former President Trump, Mike Waltz, confirmed that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin are underway. This could have significant implications for the conflict in Ukraine and the broader geopolitical landscape.
Kellogg's Cancelled Visit: US Special Envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, reportedly canceled his visit to Kyiv due to disagreements with Zelensky's position on ending the conflict and the recent Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region. This suggests a potential rift between the US and Ukraine regarding the strategy for ending the war.
Military Aid to Zaporizhzhia: In 2024, over 14,000 units of additional equipment and supplies were delivered to the military in the Zaporizhzhia direction, including communication equipment, power supplies, organizational equipment, components, and ammunition and equipment. This highlights the continued flow of military aid to Ukrainian forces.
Potential for Escalation in Somalia: The report on the counter-terrorism operation in Somalia suggests a potential for further escalation in the region, with the Islamic State expanding its influence and foreign fighters involved in the conflict.
Drone Attack in Crimea: Ukrainian forces attempted to attack the Crimean Peninsula with 43 drones, all of which were shot down. This indicates a continued effort by Ukraine to target Russian-occupied territory and test Russian air defenses.
Alleged Corruption in Ukraine: Reports of Ukrainian generals owning mansions in Los Angeles that burned down in wildfires have surfaced, fueling allegations of corruption within the Ukrainian military. This could have negative implications for morale and international support.
Russian Soldier's Testimony: A captured Ukrainian soldier's testimony reveals poor training, low morale, and a broken chain of command within the Ukrainian military. This information could be used by Russia for propaganda purposes and to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian defense.
Bus Accident in Ilovaisk: A bus accident in Ilovaisk resulted in multiple casualties, highlighting the dangers faced by civilians in the conflict zone. The driver has been charged with violating traffic rules.

These new messages indicate a further escalation of the conflict, with increased fighting in the Donetsk region and continued drone warfare. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential meetings between Trump and Putin and growing divisions within the EU. The reports of corruption and low morale within the Ukrainian military are concerning, while the continued flow of military aid to Ukraine demonstrates ongoing international support. The situation remains highly volatile and unpredictable.

Situation Report