Key Military Situation Update: January 12th, 2025

Donetsk Region:

Toretsk Under Heavy Assault: Russian forces control over 85% of Toretsk, with Ukrainian forces confined to less than 15% of the city. Russian troops are reportedly disguising themselves as civilians, complicating defensive efforts. Ukrainian forces are trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant, with Russian forces controlling 20% of the plant's territory.
Kurakhove Mostly Captured: DeepState acknowledges the loss of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
Intense Fighting Near Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with advances reported in multiple surrounding villages. Heavy fighting is reported, with 33 Russian attempts to break through Ukrainian defenses today, 22 of which were repelled. Urban fighting in Pokrovsk is not ruled out in the future. Russian forces are attempting to bypass the city. A quad bike drove through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction.
Shevchenko and Yantarne Confirmed Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of these settlements.
Chasiv Yar: Ukrainian forces report shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Posts: Ukrainian forces report successful high-precision strikes on command posts of the 8th and 2nd Guards Combined Arms Armies of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk and Novohrodivka, respectively.
Airspace Closure: The Horlivka-Yasynuvata highway has been temporarily closed due to continuous Ukrainian attacks.
Ballistic Missile Threat: A nationwide ballistic missile threat was declared across Ukraine, later lifted for most regions except Chernihiv, Poltava, and Kharkiv.

Kursk Region:

Ukrainian Counteroffensive Stalled: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of up to 48,000 casualties.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, making advances near Sudzha, including a 10-kilometer breakthrough, liberating several settlements. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Heavy fighting continues in multiple locations, with both sides suffering significant losses.
Air Raid in Sudzha: A Russian airstrike targeted a boarding school in Sudzha where civilians were sheltering, resulting in one death.
Prisoners Captured: Russian forces report capturing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers, including 13 from the 82nd Brigade and almost 30 paratroopers near Volchansk. Two North Korean soldiers have reportedly been captured in the Kursk region by Ukrainian forces.
Positional Fighting: Positional fighting is reported near Sudzha and Uspenovka, with Russian forces reportedly crossing the Snagost River and advancing about 1 km. A battle for Pogrebki was documented, showing the use of drones and close-quarters combat.
Losses: Russian forces claim the enemy has lost at least 35 pieces of equipment and more than 200 personnel in the last two days. Since the beginning of hostilities, the Russian MoD claims the AFU has lost over 50,310 troops, 294 tanks, 90 EW stations, and other equipment in the Kursk region.

Kharkiv Region:

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Counterattack: The Ukrainian Armed Forces attempted to counterattack in the Staritsa area but were unsuccessful.

Luhansk Region:

Russian Advances: Russian forces have captured Ivanovka near Terny and are attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka. They report advances near Makeevka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare:

Widespread Activity: Extensive drone activity is reported across multiple regions, with both sides using drones for reconnaissance and attacks. Ukrainian forces report their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Confirmed Attack in Engels: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, has been confirmed. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with new explosions reported and a state of emergency declared.
New Drone Technology: Reports indicate that Russian forces are increasingly using drones connected to fiber-optic cables, resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces report a 19-fold increase in the supply of drones to their units in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Drone Activity in Multiple Oblasts: Drone movements are reported in Zhytomyr, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kirovohrad, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, Cherkasy, Vinnytsia, Odesa, and Kherson Oblasts. New groups of enemy drones are reported entering the airspace of Sumy Oblast.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks are reported in Voronezh, Kursk, Saratov, and Lipetsk Oblasts, as well as in Anapa and Novorossiysk. Drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. Drone attacks are also reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga.
Air Defense Activity: Russian air defenses report destroying 40 Ukrainian drones in the Kursk region overnight and 16 in the Rostov region.

Geopolitical Developments:

Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a meeting before February 23. It is also reported that preparations for a meeting between Trump and Putin have begun.
US-Ukraine: President Biden and President Zelensky discussed continued support for Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia.
EU-Venezuela: The EU has expanded sanctions against Venezuela.
EU-Syria: EU foreign ministers will discuss the lifting of sanctions on Syria.
Poland-Slovakia-Russia: Poland denied a Slovakian parliamentary delegation's flight to Moscow passage through its airspace. The delegation was forced to fly through Germany and Czechia.
Trump's Potential Greenland Annexation: Trump's national security advisor stated that Trump is considering all options for annexing Greenland, including a military option.
Ukraine's Manpower Issues: Trump's advisor, Waltz, stated that Ukraine is facing manpower issues and that their draft age is not 18.

Other Key Developments:

Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
New Sanctions: The US has imposed sanctions on the head of Rosatom and board members.
NATO Exercises: NATO will conduct large-scale exercises called Steadfast Dart from January 13 to February 26.
Collaborators: Collaborators are forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories to be conscripted into the Russian army.
Disinformation: A fake video is being circulated, claiming that Ukrainian military officials' mansions in California burned down in a wildfire.

Updated Situation Summary:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Toretsk, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhove. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with Russian troops reportedly infiltrating Ukrainian defensive lines and controlling most of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy fighting and significant losses. Russian forces are advancing in the Sudzha area. In Luhansk, Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka.

Drone warfare is a dominant feature, with extensive activity across multiple regions and confirmed attacks deep inside Russian territory. The use of drones to target residential areas raises concerns about civilian casualties and conflict escalation. Ukrainian forces are employing innovative tactics, using drones equipped with shotguns to down enemy drones.

Geopolitical developments include potential diplomatic efforts between Germany and Russia, continued international support for Ukraine, and new sanctions against the Russian energy sector. The new information about collaborators forming lists of Ukrainians in occupied territories for conscription into the Russian army highlights Russia's efforts to bolster its forces through forced mobilization. The potential annexation of Greenland by the US, if true, would represent a major escalation in global tensions.

The military situation is characterized by intense fighting, significant Russian advances in key areas, and the continued dominance of drone warfare. The situation remains highly volatile, with the potential for further escalation and a protracted conflict. The humanitarian situation is also deteriorating, with increasing civilian casualties and displacement.

Situation Report