Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 11, 2025

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they have made significant gains, including the capture of most of Kurakhove and a substantial portion of Toretsk. They are advancing towards Pokrovsk and making progress in several surrounding villages. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of heavy losses. Renewed Russian offensive operations in Kursk have resulted in advances near several villages. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature of the conflict, with Ukrainian forces demonstrating their ability to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control the majority of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost." Russian forces have captured Shevchenko, as confirmed by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and are also advancing near Slavyanka and Petropavlivka. Russian special forces from the "Grachi" detachment destroyed a stronghold of the 46th Airmobile Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, killing dozens of Ukrainian soldiers and capturing six. 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations. Video evidence shows a Ukrainian unit targeting a Russian position in a building in Toretsk with an explosive device.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages, including Udachne, which is only 2300 meters away. Video evidence shows a quad bike driving through a destroyed Russian column on the Pokrovsk direction.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. The Ukrainian 47th Mechanized Brigade "Magura" reports repelling a massive Russian assault, involving about 50 units of equipment. The attacks were carried out in 6 waves. Ukrainian forces, along with adjacent units, reportedly destroyed a significant amount of enemy equipment and inflicted heavy casualties.
Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant. Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. Ukrainian forces reported shooting down four Russian reconnaissance drones near Chasiv Yar, including a Granat-2, Supercam S450, and two Orlan-30s.
Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
Toretsk Direction: Three Russian attacks were reported, with one ongoing.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Ukrainian forces from the 47th Mechanized Brigade repelled a massive Russian assault in the Viktorivka area near Malaya Loknya, Kursk region.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Zaporizhzhia: The number of wounded from the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has risen to 123, with 32 people injured and 13 killed. 2 people were killed and 2 injured in a Russian attack on Stepnohirsk. Russian forces launched an attack on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant with 8 drones.

Kursk Region

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region. Russian forces report that the counterattacking potential of Ukrainian forces has waned and that they are now being pushed back from their positions near Kruglenkoye. Russian forces have captured Russkoye Porechnoye and are currently assaulting Cherkasskoye Porechnoye. Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present. Video evidence shows Russian troops using an FPV drone to strike a Ukrainian group advancing at night near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers are reportedly pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Russian Breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
North Korean Involvement: Reports of two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces, one of whom had a Russian military ID issued to another person. Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in the village of Makhnovka. Operators of drones from the 95th Air Assault Brigade repelled an attack by North Koreans.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare

Extensive Activity: Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as in several regions in Russia.
Engels Oil Depot Strike: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
Nizhnekamsk Oil Refinery Evacuation: Russian forces are evacuating workers from an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, following reports of drone threats and explosions in the area.
New Drones: Reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces are using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.

Geopolitical Landscape

EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week.
German Preparations: German media reports on preparations for a potential war with Russia, including the formation of a territorial defense division and the possible reinstatement of compulsory military service.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine.

Other Developments

Bryansk Region Attack: Three civilians were injured in a Ukrainian attack using multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in the village of Novye Yurkovichi, Klimovsky district, Bryansk region.
HIMARS Strike: Images were shared of the aftermath of a building destruction in Novye Yurkovichi, with a caption claiming it was the result of a HIMARS attack.
Explosions: Reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Air Raids: Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
Forced Retreats: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Alleged War Crimes: Two Crimean marine brigades, the Ukrainian 36th and the Russian 810th from Sevastopol, reportedly clashed in the Kursk region.
LNR Captures: Reports that in the Luhansk People's Republic, a man was detained for transferring data to Ukraine on the deployment of Russian military personnel.
Air Traffic Restrictions: Temporary restrictions on flights were introduced in Ufa and Kirov airports.
Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga, where Iranian-Russian drones are assembled.
Ukrainian Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively, with reports of drones equipped with shotguns targeting Russian soldiers and drones. Ukrainian forces report that their drones can strike targets up to 2000 km away.
Russian Military Operations: Russian forces continue their operations, with reports of the 57th Brigade targeting Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novosilka.
POW Surrender: 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
Zelensky's Falsehoods: Reports that Zelensky lied about the decrease in desertion rates, with data showing a significant increase in desertion cases in 2024.
Far-Right Leader in Germany: In Germany, the leader of the far-right promised to restart "Nord Stream" and dismantle wind turbines.
Terrorist List: The name of Karelia in the Karelian language was included in the list of "terrorist" organizations by the FSB.
Oil Spill: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea reached Berdyansk.
Natural Resources in Kazakhstan: Reports suggest Kazakhstan may only have about 20 years of natural resource trade left, with foreign companies controlling major oil fields.
Drone Attack Aftermath: Reports of the consequences of a drone attack in Prymorsk, Zaporizhzhia region, where a 47-year-old woman died.
Artillery Shelling: Reports of Russian forces using artillery and drones to attack Ukrainian positions, including the destruction of a 105-mm howitzer "M119" near Ulakly.
Psychiatric Hospital Fire: A fire in a psychiatric hospital in the Moscow region was localized to 1,000 square meters.
Military Equipment Shortages: Reports of Russian forces experiencing shortages of armored vehicles on the eastern front.
Award Ceremony: The Tsentr Group of Forces' servicemen of a tank regiment were awarded for personal courage, bravery, and heroism.
Propaganda Video: A video was released showing a Russian soldier complaining about exploding trench candles allegedly made by volunteers.
Search for Missing Soldiers: Ukraine and Poland have identified locations to search for the remains of soldiers for exhumation.
China-Taiwan Tensions: Reports of China building new amphibious assault ships and the US preparing Taiwan for defense, including plans to deploy NASAMS air defense systems.
Desertion in Ukrainian Armed Forces: Reports of a significant increase in desertion cases within the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, with data from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine.

Changes Brought by the New Messages

Slovak PM's Further Criticism of Zelensky: The new messages reinforce the Slovak Prime Minister's critical stance towards Zelensky, further highlighting the potential for growing divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. His statements about Ukraine begging and blackmailing for money, coupled with Slovakia's substantial military aid to Ukraine, suggest a complex and potentially contradictory position.
Capture of Ukrainian Soldiers: The report of 16 Ukrainian soldiers surrendering on the Kurakhiv direction, if confirmed, could indicate a shift in morale or a successful Russian operation in that area. The video of the captured soldiers, released by the Russian Ministry of Defense, serves as a propaganda tool for Russia.
Russian Military Operations in Shevchenko: The video and report from the Russian Ministry of Defense detailing the operation to liberate Shevchenko provide insights into Russian tactics and the intensity of the fighting in the Donetsk region.
Ukrainian Drone Operations near Kupyansk: The video from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade showcasing the destruction of Russian MT-LBs near Kupyansk demonstrates the continued effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and their ability to target Russian armor.
Air Traffic Restrictions Lifted: The lifting of restrictions in the airports of Kazan, Nizhnekamsk, and Samara suggests a return to normalcy after a potential threat, possibly related to drone activity.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly dynamic. Russian forces continue to maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in the Donetsk region, where they are making significant advances towards Pokrovsk and have captured key areas like Kurakhove and Shevchenko. The situation in Toretsk remains critical for Ukrainian forces. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with heavy losses reported. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory, targeting oil depots and refineries. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with growing tensions between Russia and the West and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine. The Slovak Prime Minister's continued criticism of Zelensky highlights these divisions. The capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the ongoing fighting in various regions underscore the intensity of the conflict. The new messages highlight the continued importance of drone warfare, the ongoing information war, and the potential for further escalation. The situation is further complicated by internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine, including corruption, incompetence, desertion, and declining morale. The environmental damage caused by the conflict, such as the oil spill reaching Berdyansk, is also a growing concern. The potential for a wider conflict, as suggested by reports of military buildup in the Asia-Pacific region, remains a significant risk.

Situation Report