Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 11, 2025

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, while a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk has stalled.

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost."
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination.
• Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne.
• Shevchenko Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko.
• Other Advances: Further Russian gains are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
• Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with 192 attacks in the Donetsk direction and 107 in the Pokrovsk direction over the past day.
• Chasiv Yar: A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
• Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
• Toretsk Direction: Three Russian attacks were reported, with one ongoing.
• Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
• Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.

Kursk Region

• Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties).
• Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
• Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
• Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
• Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
• Russian Breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
• North Korean Involvement: Reports of two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces, one of whom had a Russian military ID issued to another person.

Kharkiv Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.

Drone Warfare

• Extensive Activity: Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as in several regions in Russia.
• Engels Oil Depot Strike: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
• Nizhnekamsk Oil Refinery Evacuation: Russian forces are evacuating workers from an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, following reports of drone threats and explosions in the area.
• New Drones: Reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare. Ukrainian forces are using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones.

Geopolitical Landscape

• EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week.
• German Preparations: German media reports on preparations for a potential war with Russia, including the formation of a territorial defense division and the possible reinstatement of compulsory military service.
• US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
• Slovak PM's Criticism of Zelensky: The Slovak Prime Minister, Robert Fico, has strongly criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky, calling him a "beggar and a blackmailer" and stating he does not want to go "hand in hand" with him. This highlights growing tensions and potential divisions within the EU regarding support for Ukraine.

Other Developments

• Bryansk Region Attack: Three civilians were injured in a Ukrainian attack using multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in the village of Novye Yurkovichi, Klimovsky district, Bryansk region.
• HIMARS Strike: Images were shared of the aftermath of a building destruction in Novye Yurkovichi, with a caption claiming it was the result of a HIMARS attack.
• Explosions: Reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
• Air Raids: Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
• Forced Retreats: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
• Alleged War Crimes: Two Crimean marine brigades, the Ukrainian 36th and the Russian 810th from Sevastopol, reportedly clashed in the Kursk region.
• LNR Captures: Reports that in the Luhansk People's Republic, a man was detained for transferring data to Ukraine on the deployment of Russian military personnel.
• Air Traffic Restrictions: Temporary restrictions on flights were introduced in Ufa and Kirov airports.
• Drone Attacks in Russia: Drone attacks reported in Tatarstan, with an alarm in Nizhnekamsk and Yelabuga, where Iranian-Russian drones are assembled.
• Ukrainian Drone Operations: Ukrainian forces continue to use drones effectively, with reports of drones equipped with shotguns targeting Russian soldiers and drones.
• Russian Military Operations: Russian forces continue their operations, with reports of the 57th Brigade targeting Ukrainian forces near Velyka Novosilka.
• POW Surrender: 16 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly surrendered on the Kurakhiv direction after a Russian offensive and leaflet drop.
• Zelensky's Falsehoods: Reports that Zelensky lied about the decrease in desertion rates, with data showing a significant increase in desertion cases in 2024.
• Far-Right Leader in Germany: In Germany, the leader of the far-right promised to restart "Nord Stream" and dismantle wind turbines.
• Terrorist List: The name of Karelia in the Karelian language was included in the list of "terrorist" organizations by the FSB.
• Oil Spill: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea reached Berdyansk.
• Natural Resources in Kazakhstan: Reports suggest Kazakhstan may only have about 20 years of natural resource trade left, with foreign companies controlling major oil fields.
• Drone Attack Aftermath: Reports of the consequences of a drone attack in Prymorsk, Zaporizhzhia region, where a 47-year-old woman died.
• Artillery Shelling: Reports of Russian forces using artillery and drones to attack Ukrainian positions, including the destruction of a 105-mm howitzer "M119" near Ulakly.
• Psychiatric Hospital Fire: A fire in a psychiatric hospital in the Moscow region was localized to 1,000 square meters.
• Military Equipment Shortages: Reports of Russian forces experiencing shortages of armored vehicles on the eastern front.
• Award Ceremony: The Tsentr Group of Forces' servicemen of a tank regiment were awarded for personal courage, bravery, and heroism.
• Propaganda Video: A video was released showing a Russian soldier complaining about exploding trench candles allegedly made by volunteers.
• Search for Missing Soldiers: Ukraine and Poland have identified locations to search for the remains of soldiers for exhumation.
• China-Taiwan Tensions: Reports of China building new amphibious assault ships and the US preparing Taiwan for defense, including plans to deploy NASAMS air defense systems.
• Desertion in Ukrainian Armed Forces: Reports of a significant increase in desertion cases within the Ukrainian Armed Forces in 2024, with data from the Office of the Prosecutor General of Ukraine.

Changes Brought by the New Messages:

The new messages add several important updates to the overall situation:

1. Detainment of a man in LNR: This highlights ongoing counterintelligence efforts by Russian-backed forces in occupied territories.
2. Air Traffic Restrictions: Restrictions in Ufa and Kirov, along with the attacks in Tatarstan, indicate a widening area of drone warfare and potential Ukrainian strikes deep within Russia.
3. Ukrainian Drone Capabilities: The successful targeting of Russian armored vehicles, including the rare BTR-D, demonstrates the growing effectiveness of Ukrainian drone warfare and the vulnerability of Russian armor.
4. Environmental Damage: The oil spill reaching Berdyansk is a significant environmental event with potential long-term consequences for the region. This also highlights the ecological cost of the conflict.
5. Kazakhstan's Resource Depletion: The report on Kazakhstan's dwindling natural resources underscores the long-term economic challenges faced by countries in the region and the potential for increased competition for resources.
6. Propaganda and Disinformation: The video of the Russian soldier complaining about exploding candles, while potentially true, could also be part of a disinformation campaign to discredit volunteer support for the military. The conflicting reports about desertion rates also point to an ongoing information war.
7. China-Taiwan Tensions: The reports of military buildup in the region highlight the growing tensions and the potential for a wider conflict.
8. Internal Russian Issues: The interview with Vasily Yakemenko, former head of the "Nashi" movement and Rosmolodezh, reveals deep-seated issues within the Russian political elite, including corruption, incompetence, and a lack of genuine patriotism. This suggests significant internal weaknesses that could impact Russia's long-term stability and ability to wage war.
9. Award Ceremony: The awarding of medals to Russian servicemen highlights the ongoing combat operations and the importance of maintaining morale within the ranks.
10. Ukraine-Poland Cooperation: The agreement to search for the remains of soldiers in both countries is a positive development in bilateral relations and demonstrates a commitment to addressing the human cost of past conflicts.
11. Desertion in Ukrainian Armed Forces: The data on desertion rates, if accurate, is a significant concern for Ukraine and suggests internal issues within the military that need to be addressed.

Updated Situation:

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing their offensive in Donetsk and making gains in several areas. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk has stalled, and heavy fighting is reported across multiple fronts. Drone warfare continues to be a significant factor, with Ukrainian forces demonstrating their ability to strike deep inside Russian territory and effectively target Russian armor. The new messages highlight growing internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine, including corruption, incompetence, desertion, and a potential decline in morale. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with tensions rising between Russia and the West, as well as in the Asia-Pacific region. The environmental damage caused by the conflict is also a growing concern. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing information war, with both sides attempting to shape the narrative and influence public opinion. The potential for further escalation remains high, and the long-term consequences of the conflict are becoming increasingly apparent. The new information regarding the oil spill, Kazakhstan's resource depletion, and the internal issues within both Russia and Ukraine adds further complexity to the situation and highlights the need for a comprehensive and nuanced understanding of the ongoing conflict. The Slovak PM's comments add another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation, indicating a potential fracture in the European support for Ukraine.