Updated Analysis of the Military Situation in Ukraine - January 11, 2025, 15:42 UTC
Strategic Overview
The military situation in Ukraine remains critical, with intense fighting concentrated in the Donetsk, Kursk, and Luhansk regions. Russian forces maintain the offensive initiative, particularly in Donetsk, while a major Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kursk has stalled. Drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature, with reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems.
Key Developments
Donetsk Region
Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces control most of Kurakhove, with Ukrainian forces holding only the western part, including a thermal power plant. Ukrainian sources indicate the city is "factually lost," and DeepState has officially acknowledged its loss. The Ukrainian General Staff states that fighting continues within the city limits but acknowledges that the city is not fully controlled by Russian forces.
Critical Situation in Toretsk: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Russian assault groups have infiltrated Ukrainian formations, and fighting is approaching its culmination. Russian forces have established a flag in the northern part of the city, confirming their control over the northern part of Dzerzhynsk (Toretsk). Russian sources claim that almost the entire city is under their control.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in several surrounding villages. They have advanced to within 2300 meters of Udachne.
Shevchenko Captured: The Russian Ministry of Defense has officially confirmed the capture of Shevchenko, awarding over 6000 troops with medals. Video evidence shows Russian forces planting a flag in the center of Shevchenko, claiming control of the settlement.
Other Advances: Further Russian gains are reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetovka, Kurakhove, Pisky, Dachne, Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka.
Intense Fighting: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports particularly intense fighting in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions, with 192 attacks in the Donetsk direction and 107 in the Pokrovsk direction over the past day. 37 combat clashes are still ongoing.
Chasiv Yar: Video evidence of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian BMP. A group of Ukrainian soldiers has reportedly become trapped in a "fire pocket" near a refractory plant in Chasiv Yar. Russian forces now control approximately 20% of the territory of the refractory plant.
Kramatorsk Direction: Ukrainian forces repelled six attacks, with five clashes ongoing.
Toretsk Direction: Three Russian attacks were reported, with one ongoing.
Dnipropetrovsk Direction: Battles are ongoing across the entire direction, with particularly fierce battles near Novovasylivka - Uspenivka. Russian forces have cleared Novovasylivka and are engaged in battles to capture Uspenivka. Further south, there are intense battles for Novoandreevka and near Sribne.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of an assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence shows Ukrainian drone operators targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, including a 2S7 Pion self-propelled howitzer, a "Vampire" drone, a T-90 tank, and an ammunition depot. Russian FPV drone operators from the "Aida" group reportedly hit two Ukrainian armored fighting vehicles.
Drone Use: Ukrainian forces are effectively using drones equipped with shotguns to counter Russian drones.
Casualties: Reports indicate significant casualties on both sides, including the elimination of a group of Russian soldiers near Pokrovsk by Ukrainian snipers and the surrender of 16 Ukrainian soldiers near Kurakhovo.
Kursk Region
Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). The Washington Post reports that if Ukrainian forces withdraw from the Kursk region, 60,000 Russian troops will follow them into Ukraine.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations, with advances near Novaya Sorochina, between Guyevo and Kurilovka, and in the forested areas of the Sudzha border region.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in multiple locations, including Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, Novaya Sorochina, and the forests near Sverdlikovo and Lebedevka.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with reports of destroyed Ukrainian artillery and vehicles.
Reinforcements: Over 350 enemy personnel, including special operations forces, have reportedly arrived in the region. Intelligence suggests a concentration of enemy forces near Pogrebki and the presence of Ukrainian reserves in the Sumy region.
Makhnovka: Heavy fighting continues, with both sides present.
Casualties: The Russian Ministry of Defense reports significant Ukrainian losses in the region, including over 50,840 troops since the beginning of hostilities.
Prisoners of War: Video evidence of Russian forces capturing Ukrainian soldiers, including 13 from the 82nd Brigade and almost 30 paratroopers near Volchansk.
Russian Breakthrough: Russian forces have made a powerful 10-kilometer breakthrough on the Kursk front, liberating Alexandria after previously taking Leonidovo, Novoivanovka, and Kruglenkoye. They have advanced up to 4 kilometers deep on a 10-kilometer wide front.
Air Defense: Overnight, 40 Ukrainian drones were reportedly destroyed by air defense forces in the Kursk region.
North Korean Involvement: Video evidence of a North Korean soldier evicting two Russian women from their house in Makhnovka. Reports of two North Korean soldiers captured by Ukrainian forces, one of whom had a Russian military ID issued to another person.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence of Ukrainian forces using drones equipped with shotguns to effectively shoot down Russian drones. Reports of a successful Russian "Lancet" drone strike on a Ukrainian M-113 armored personnel carrier.
New: WarGonzo reports that the Ukrainian soldier filmed near a "Pyaterochka" store in the Kursk region was not, in fact, captured, contradicting earlier reports.
Kharkiv Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area and in Dvurichna. They have reportedly expanded their bridgehead up to 5 km south of Dvorechnaya, occupied the forest near Zapadnoye, and advanced significantly in the center of Dvurichna.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces have reportedly stabilized the situation near Kruhliakivka and Kolisnykivka, preventing further Russian advances along the Oskil River.
Drone Warfare: Video evidence of a Ukrainian FPV drone targeting Russian infantry in the Kharkiv region, resulting in one soldier killed and another wounded.
Luhansk Region
Russian Advances: Russian forces are advancing near Ivanivka and towards the western border of the Luhansk People's Republic.
Drone Warfare
Extensive Activity: Reports indicate drone activity in Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Sumy, Poltava, Cherkasy, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts, as well as in several regions in Russia.
Engels Oil Depot Strike: Confirmed drone attacks are ongoing in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.
Nizhnekamsk Oil Refinery Evacuation: Russian forces are evacuating workers from an oil refinery in Nizhnekamsk, Tatarstan, following reports of drone threats and explosions in the area.
New Drones: Reports of new Russian drones equipped with fiber-optic control systems, which are resistant to electronic warfare.
Geopolitical Landscape
EU Sanctions: The EU is preparing new sanctions against Russia, with discussions set to begin next week.
German Preparations: German media reports on preparations for a potential war with Russia, including the formation of a territorial defense division and the possible reinstatement of compulsory military service.
US-Russia Relations: Russian Foreign Ministry states that hostile actions by the US will not go unpunished and will be considered in Russia's foreign policy strategy.
Other Developments
Explosions: Reported in Samara (Novomoskovsk), Dnipropetrovsk Oblast.
Air Raids: Ukrainian Air Force reports activity of Russian tactical aviation in the north-eastern direction, with a threat of the use of air weapons. A missile was reported to be heading towards Konotop from Kursk, and then towards Chernihiv. Repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation were reported in the Donetsk and Sumy regions.
Forced Retreats: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a difficult situation along the entire frontline and forced retreats to new defensive lines in the Dnipropetrovsk region.
Alleged War Crimes: Two Crimean marine brigades, the Ukrainian 36th and the Russian 810th from Sevastopol, reportedly clashed in the Kursk region.
New Messages Analysis
Bryansk Region Attack: Three civilians were injured in a Ukrainian attack using multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in the village of Novye Yurkovichi, Klimovsky district, Bryansk region. The attack caused significant damage to an administrative building. This indicates a continuation of Ukrainian cross-border attacks and the targeting of civilian infrastructure.
HIMARS Strike: Images were shared of the aftermath of a building destruction in Novye Yurkovichi, with a caption claiming it was the result of a HIMARS attack. This, if confirmed, suggests the use of precision-guided munitions by Ukrainian forces to target specific buildings in Russia.
These new messages highlight the escalation of cross-border attacks and the use of advanced weaponry, such as HIMARS, to target infrastructure within Russia. The attack on a civilian area and the resulting casualties will likely further inflame tensions and could lead to retaliatory actions.
