Updated Situation in Ukraine: January 9, 2025, 03:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing their offensive in the Donetsk region and making significant gains. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, and drone warfare continues to be a dominant feature.

Donetsk Region: Critical situation with continued Russian advances.
- Toretsk: Ukrainian control reduced to under 15%. Russian forces consolidating positions and advancing.
- Kurakhove & Pokrovsk: Continued Russian advances, with a possible redeployment of Russian forces from Kurakhove to Myrnohrad, towards Pokrovsk.
- Further Russian gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Russian advances in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne.
- New Update: Launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation reported in the Donetsk region.
Kursk Region: Heavy fighting continues, with high casualties.
- Makhnovka & Sverdlikovo: Intense fighting with high casualties.
- Ukrainian counteroffensive continues, but the ISW reports Russian advances.
- Video evidence suggests a weakening of Ukrainian defenses near Sverdlikovo.
- Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces.
Drone Warfare: Remains central to the conflict.
- Extensive use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
- New drone threats identified across multiple regions.
- Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
- Significant Development: Discussion on procuring 200,000 fiber-optic control systems for FPV drones from China to counter electronic warfare.
- New Update: Airborne threat of attack drones has been deactivated across all regions.
Geopolitical Landscape: Complex and evolving.
- International support for Ukraine continues, but concerns regarding China's support for Russia and potential divisions among European nations are notable.
- Uncertainty surrounding continued US support.
Other Key Developments:
- Explosions reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
- Russian sniper activity reported in the Polohy direction.
- DeepState map updated, reflecting Russian advances and adjustments to the contact line in Kursk.
- Reports of Russian "Vostok" grouping claiming the destruction of six Ukrainian drone control points and inflicting heavy losses.
- Allegations of atrocities in Selidovo by Ukrainian forces.
- Arrest of an individual for allegedly preparing to sabotage the Trans-Siberian Railway.
- New Update: Traffic restrictions lifted on the "Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Amursk" highway due to improved weather conditions.
- New Update: Threat of ballistic weaponry from the north-east in regions with an air alarm.

Detailed Analysis

Donetsk Region

The situation in the Donetsk region is critical. Russian forces are making significant advances, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk.

Toretsk: Less than 15% of the city remains under Ukrainian control, with Russian forces consolidating positions on the outskirts and advancing along major streets. The situation is dire for Ukrainian defenders.
Kurakhove & Pokrovsk: The ISW reports continued Russian advances near Kurakhove. There's a possibility of Russian forces redeploying from Kurakhove to Myrnohrad, indicating a strategic shift towards Pokrovsk.
Other Advances: Russian forces have made further gains near several settlements, including Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. They are also advancing in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne.
New Update: The Ukrainian Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by Russian tactical aviation in the Donetsk region. This indicates continued and potentially intensified air attacks, further pressuring Ukrainian defenses.

Kursk Region

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region is ongoing but marked by heavy fighting and losses. The ISW confirms Russian advances, contradicting earlier reports of Ukrainian progress.

Makhnovka & Sverdlikovo: Intense fighting continues near these settlements, with high casualties reported on both sides.
Ukrainian Counteroffensive: While the counteroffensive continues, the ISW report of Russian advances suggests a shift in momentum.
Russian Consolidation: Video evidence indicates a weakening of Ukrainian defenses near Sverdlikovo, suggesting Russian forces are making progress in consolidating their positions.
Artillery & Drones: Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective. The destruction of a Ukrainian 122-mm 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer by a "Lancet" drone, after being identified by a "Zala" drone, highlights the successful integration of these systems. Crimean paratroopers' "Hyacinth-B" reportedly destroyed camouflaged Ukrainian artillery, further demonstrating the impact of Russian artillery.

Drone Warfare

Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with both sides heavily relying on drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.

New Threats: New drone threats have been identified across multiple regions, including west of Okhtyrka towards Sumy, towards/through Nikopol, the left bank of Kherson Oblast, southwestern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from occupied Zaporizhzhia, approaching Sumy from the south, Sumy Oblast (north through Sumy), central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (north-east), towards Dnipro from the southwest, northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (eastern), and the Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv Oblast border (west/northwest).
Air Defenses: Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats, particularly around Kyiv.
Fiber-Optic Control Systems: The discussion on procuring 200,000 fiber-optic control systems for FPV drones from China is a significant development. If successful, this could neutralize current electronic countermeasures and significantly enhance the effectiveness of Ukrainian FPV drones.
New Update: The Ukrainian Air Force reports that the threat of enemy attack drones has been deactivated across all regions. This provides a temporary reprieve from drone attacks, but the threat is likely to persist.

Geopolitical Landscape

The geopolitical situation remains complex. International support for Ukraine continues, with a recent meeting between US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron highlighting ongoing efforts. However, concerns remain regarding China's support for Russia's defense industry and potential divisions among European nations. The Pentagon's statement about unspent aid for Ukraine underscores the uncertainty surrounding continued US support.

Other Key Developments

Explosions: Explosions were reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts, likely related to drone activity and air defense engagements.
Russian Sniper Activity: Night hunts on enemy infantry were reported in the Polohy direction by the 35th Army "East" group, using thermal/night-vision scopes. This indicates ongoing close-quarters combat and Russian efforts to target Ukrainian personnel.
DeepState Map Update: The DeepState map has been updated to reflect Russian advances and adjustments to the contact line in Kursk. This provides a visual representation of the changing battlefield dynamics.
"Vostok" Group Claims: The Russian "Vostok" grouping claims to have destroyed six Ukrainian drone control points and inflicted heavy losses on Ukrainian forces in terms of personnel and equipment. While these claims need verification, they suggest continued Russian offensive operations and attempts to disrupt Ukrainian drone capabilities.
Allegations of Atrocities in Selidovo: A video has surfaced with a woman claiming Ukrainian forces committed atrocities against civilians in Selidovo, including holding people captive and killing a family of five. If true, these allegations could have significant implications for the conflict's narrative and international perception.
Arrest for Transsiberian Railway Sabotage: A resident of the Amur region was arrested for allegedly preparing to sabotage a section of the Trans-Siberian Railway. This indicates potential internal security threats within Russia and efforts to disrupt critical infrastructure.
New Update: Restrictions on bus movement on the "Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Amursk" highway have been lifted due to improved weather conditions. While seemingly unrelated, this could potentially facilitate logistics and troop movements in Russia's Far East. However, its connection to the Ukraine conflict is indirect.
New Update: The Ukrainian Air Force reports a threat of ballistic weaponry from the north-east in regions where an air alarm has been declared. This indicates a potential threat of missile attacks, requiring heightened alert and readiness from Ukrainian air defenses.

Conclusion

The military situation in Ukraine is highly dynamic and unfavorable for Ukraine. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region appears to have stalled. Drone warfare remains a central feature of the conflict, with both sides heavily reliant on these systems. The potential procurement of fiber-optic control systems for Ukrainian FPV drones from China could be a game-changer, potentially neutralizing current electronic countermeasures. The geopolitical landscape is complex, with continued international support for Ukraine but also concerns about the level and consistency of this support. The new updates regarding the launches of guided aerial bombs in Donetsk, the deactivation of the drone threat, the lifting of traffic restrictions in the Khabarovsk region, and the threat of ballistic missiles further emphasize the volatility and complexity of the situation.

Situation Report