Military Situation in Ukraine: Analysis and Assessment

Major Updates as of January 9, 2025, 02:33 UTC

Donetsk Region

• Toretsk: Ukrainian control reduced to under 15%. Russian forces consolidating positions on the outskirts and advancing along Istorychna Street (northwest) and at the Rizdviana/Kozhedua intersection.
• Kurakhove & Pokrovsk: Continued Russian advances reported by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) near Kurakhove. Possible redeployment of Russian forces from Kurakhove to Myrnohrad, towards Pokrovsk.
• Russian Advances: Further gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Russian forces are also advancing in Pisky and the eastern outskirts of Dachne.

Kursk Region

• Intense Fighting: Ongoing heavy fighting near Makhnovka and Sverdlikovo, with high casualties reported on both sides.
• Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The counteroffensive continues, but the ISW reports Russian advances.
• Russian Consolidation: Video evidence suggests a weakening of Ukrainian defenses near Sverdlikovo.
• Russian Artillery: A Ukrainian 122-mm 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer was destroyed by a "Lancet" drone after being identified by a "Zala" drone. Crimean paratroopers' "Hyacinth-B" reportedly destroyed camouflaged Ukrainian artillery.

Drone Warfare

• Dominant Feature: Extensive use of drones by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
• New Drone Threats:
  • West of Okhtyrka towards Sumy.
  • Towards/through Nikopol.
  • Left bank of Kherson Oblast.
  • Southwestern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from occupied Zaporizhzhia.
  • Approaching Sumy from the south.
  • Sumy Oblast (north through Sumy), central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (north-east).
  • Towards Dnipro from the southwest.
  • Northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (eastern).
  • Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv Oblast border (west/northwest).
• Air Defenses: Active, especially around Kyiv.
• Electronic Warfare: Discussion on procuring 200,000 fiber-optic control systems for FPV drones from China to counter electronic warfare.

Geopolitical Landscape

• US-France Meeting: US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron discussed support for Ukraine and concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
• BRICS: Potential appearance of BRICS New Development Bank contract data on a public procurement website.
• US Legal Action: A Canadian citizen was sentenced to 3.5 years for allegedly exporting electronic equipment to Russia illegally.
• Migration Crisis: Western countries, particularly English-speaking ones, are facing a significant migration crisis with potential impacts on labor, housing, and social spending.
• Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak Prime Minister Fico praised his visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies and accusing Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
• Western Support Debate: A Foreign Policy op-ed suggests a future "Who Lost Ukraine" debate among Kyiv's Western supporters.
• Canadian Politics: Over 80% of Canadians reportedly support Prime Minister Trudeau's decision to resign.

Other Key Developments

• Explosions: Reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
• Russian Sniper Activity: Night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction by the 35th Army "East" group, using thermal/night-vision scopes.
• DeepState Map Update: Reflects Russian advances and adjustments to the contact line in Kursk.
• Russian Propagandist's Health: Tigran Keosayan is reportedly in a coma after clinical death due to heart problems.
• Russian Tactical Aviation: Activity observed in the eastern direction, with a threat of using airborne weapons.
• US Aid: The Pentagon reports that a few billion dollars of aid for Ukraine will remain unspent and be left for the new administration.
• Traffic Restrictions Lifted: Restrictions on bus movement on the "Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Amursk" highway have been lifted due to improved weather conditions.
• Russian "Vostok" Grouping Claims: Reports of the destruction of six Ukrainian drone control points, along with claims of inflicting heavy losses on Ukrainian forces in terms of personnel and equipment.
• Allegations of Atrocities in Selidovo: A video surfaced with a woman claiming Ukrainian forces committed atrocities against civilians in Selidovo, including holding people captive and killing a family of five.
• Arrest for Transsiberian Railway Sabotage: A resident of the Amur region was arrested for allegedly preparing to sabotage a section of the Trans-Siberian Railway.
• Airborne Threats Deactivated: Ukrainian Air Force reported that the threat of enemy attack drones has been deactivated across all regions.

Updated Situation Analysis

The military situation remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukraine. Russian forces continue to make significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control and Russian forces advancing further. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region is ongoing but marked by heavy fighting and losses, with the ISW confirming Russian advances.

Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, with the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces in the Kursk region highlighting the use of "Zala" and "Lancet" drones. Drone warfare remains central, with new threats identified across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The discussion on procuring fiber-optic control systems for FPV drones from China indicates a significant development in drone warfare, potentially neutralizing current electronic countermeasures.

The geopolitical landscape is complex. International support for Ukraine continues, but concerns regarding China's support for Russia and potential divisions among European nations are notable. The Pentagon's statement about unspent aid for Ukraine highlights the uncertainty surrounding continued US support.

The new claims from the Russian "Vostok" grouping about destroying Ukrainian drone control points and inflicting heavy losses, while needing verification, suggest continued Russian offensive operations. The allegations of atrocities in Selidovo, if true, could have significant implications for the conflict's narrative and international perception. The arrest of an individual for allegedly preparing to sabotage the Trans-Siberian Railway indicates potential internal security threats within Russia. Finally, the deactivation of the airborne threat by the Ukrainian Air Force provides a temporary reprieve from drone attacks.

The lifting of traffic restrictions in the Khabarovsk region, while seemingly unrelated, could potentially facilitate logistics and troop movements in Russia's Far East. However, its connection to the Ukraine conflict is indirect.