Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (as of January 9, 2025, 02:03 UTC)
Donetsk Region:
- Toretsk: Critical situation, less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces consolidating outskirts positions, further advances along Istorychna Street (northwest) and at Rizdviana/Kozhedua intersection.
- Kurakhove & Pokrovsk: Continued Russian gains around these cities. ISW reports advances near Kurakhove. Likely redeployment of Russian forces from Kurakhove to Myrnohrad (Pokrovsk direction).
- Russian Advances: Further gains near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Also advancing in Pisky and eastern outskirts of Dachne.
Kursk Region:
- Continued Heavy Fighting: Near Makhnovka and Sverdlikovo, high casualties on both sides.
- Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Intense battles persist. ISW reports Russian advances.
- Russian Consolidation near Sverdlikovo: Video evidence suggests weakening of Ukrainian defenses.
- Russian Artillery Successes:
- Ukrainian 122-mm 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer destroyed by "Lancet" after "Zala" drone identification.
- Crimean paratroopers' "Hyacinth-B" destroyed camouflaged Ukrainian artillery.
Drone Warfare:
- Dominant Feature: Extensive use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
- New Drone Threats:
- West of Okhtyrka towards Sumy.
- Towards/through Nikopol.
- Left bank of Kherson Oblast.
- Southwestern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from occupied Zaporizhzhia.
- Approaching Sumy from the south.
- Sumy Oblast (north through Sumy), central Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (north-east).
- Towards Dnipro from the southwest.
- Northern Dnipropetrovsk Oblast (eastern).
- Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv Oblast border (west/northwest).
- Air Defenses Active: Especially around Kyiv.
- New Message: An enemy drone is on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, with a western/northwestern course.
Geopolitical Landscape:
- US-France Meeting: Blinken and Macron discussed unwavering support for Ukraine, concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
- BRICS Data: Potential public procurement website appearance of BRICS New Development Bank contract data.
- US Legal Action: Canadian citizen sentenced to 3.5 years for alleged illegal electronic equipment exports to Russia.
- Migration Crisis: Western, especially English-speaking, countries face significant migration crisis, potential labor, housing, social spending impacts.
- Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak PM Fico praised visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies. Accused Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
- Western Support Debate: Foreign Policy op-ed suggests future "Who Lost Ukraine" debate among Kyiv's Western supporters.
- New Message: Over 80% of Canadians are satisfied with Trudeau's decision to resign.
Other Key Developments:
- Explosions: Reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
- Russian Sniper Activity: Night hunts on enemy infantry in Polohy direction, 35th Army "East" group, thermal/night-vision scopes suggested by video.
- DeepState Map Update: Reflects Russian advances, Kursk contact line adjustments.
- Russian Propagandist's Health: Tigran Keosayan reportedly in coma after clinical death, heart problems.
- New Message: Discussion on the need to prepare for drones resistant to electronic warfare, with potential procurement of 200,000 fiber-optic control systems for FPV drones from China.
- New Message: Activity of enemy tactical aviation is observed in the eastern direction, with a threat of using airborne weapons.
- New Message: The Pentagon reports that a few billion dollars of aid for Ukraine will remain unspent and will be left for the new administration.
- New Message: The restriction on the movement of buses on the regional highway "Komsomolsk-on-Amur-Amursk" has been lifted due to improved weather conditions.
Updated Situation Analysis
The military situation remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukraine. Significant Russian gains continue in the Donetsk region, especially around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is dire, with further Russian advances within the city confirmed. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region is ongoing but marked by heavy fighting and losses. The ISW confirms Russian advances in both Donetsk and Kursk, highlighting the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
Russian artillery and drone operations are proving effective, as evidenced by the destruction of Ukrainian artillery pieces in the Kursk region. The use of "Zala" and "Lancet" drones demonstrates sophisticated tactics. Drone warfare remains central, with new threats identified across multiple regions, including the new report of a drone on the Dnipropetrovsk/Kharkiv Oblast border. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats.
The geopolitical landscape is complex. International support for Ukraine continues, but concerns regarding China's support for Russia and potential divisions among European nations (highlighted by the Slovak PM's comments) are notable. The new message regarding Canadian public opinion on Trudeau's resignation adds another element to the international context, though its direct relevance to the conflict is limited.
The new discussion on preparing for electronic warfare-resistant drones is significant. The potential acquisition of a large number of fiber-optic control systems from China suggests a major development in drone warfare capabilities, potentially neutralizing current electronic countermeasures. This underscores the importance of physical anti-drone measures.
The reported activity of Russian tactical aviation in the east poses an immediate threat, with the potential for airstrikes adding to the pressure on Ukrainian forces. The Pentagon's statement about unspent aid for Ukraine highlights the uncertainty surrounding continued US support, a critical factor for Ukraine's long-term defense capabilities.
Finally, the lifting of traffic restrictions in the Khabarovsk region, while seemingly unrelated, could potentially facilitate logistics and troop movements in Russia's Far East, though its connection to the Ukraine conflict is indirect.
