Major Updates on the Military Situation in Ukraine (as of January 9, 2025, 01:33 UTC)
Donetsk Region:
- Toretsk: The situation remains critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are consolidating their positions on the outskirts and have made further advances within the city, particularly along Istorychna Street in the northwest and at the intersection of Rizdviana and Kozhedua streets.
- Kurakhove & Pokrovsk: Russian forces continue to make gains, particularly around Kurakhove and Pokrovsk. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reports further Russian advances near Kurakhove. Russian forces are likely redeploying from the Kurakhove direction to the Myrnohrad area in the Pokrovsk direction.
- Russian Advances: Further advances reported near Vozdvyzhenka, Baranivka, Solone, Slovyanka, Petropavlivka, Novoelizavetivka, and Kurakhove. Russian forces are also advancing in Pisky and to the eastern outskirts of Dachne.
Kursk Region:
- Continued Fighting: Heavy fighting continues near multiple settlements, including Makhnovka and Sverdlikovo. Both sides are suffering heavy losses.
- Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The counteroffensive continues, with intense battles persisting. The ISW reports Russian advances in the Kursk region.
- Russian Consolidation near Sverdlikovo: Video evidence suggests Russian forces are working to weaken Ukrainian defenses near Sverdlikovo.
- Russian Artillery Successes:
- A 122-mm 2S1 "Gvozdika" self-propelled howitzer belonging to the Ukrainian Armed Forces was identified by a "Zala" drone and subsequently destroyed by a "Lancet" loitering munition.
- A "Hyacinth-B" howitzer operated by Crimean paratroopers successfully destroyed a camouflaged Ukrainian artillery piece in the Kursk border area.
Drone Warfare:
- Dominant Feature: Drone warfare remains a central element, with extensive use by both sides for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks.
- New Drone Threats:
- One drone is flying west of Okhtyrka towards Sumy.
- One new drone is heading towards/through Nikopol.
- One drone is on the left bank of Kherson Oblast.
- Enemy drones are entering the southwestern part of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast from the temporarily occupied territories of Zaporizhzhia.
- An enemy drone is approaching Sumy from the south.
- Enemy drones are observed in Sumy Oblast (moving north through Sumy) and in the center of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, course - north-east.
- A new drone is reported moving towards Dnipro from the southwest.
- One drone is observed in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast with an eastern course.
- An enemy drone is observed on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, with a western/northwestern course.
- Air Defenses Active: Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, particularly around Kyiv.
Geopolitical Landscape:
- US-France Meeting: US Secretary of State Blinken and French President Macron discussed unwavering support for Ukraine and concerns about China's support for Russia's defense industry.
- BRICS Data: Data on contracts of international organizations, primarily the BRICS New Development Bank, may appear on the public procurement website.
- US Legal Action: A US court has sentenced a Canadian citizen to 3.5 years in prison for allegedly illegally exporting electronic equipment to Russia.
- Migration Crisis: Western countries, particularly English-speaking ones, are facing a significant migration crisis, with potential impacts on labor, housing, and social spending.
- Slovak-Russian Relations: Slovak Prime Minister Fico has praised his visit to Russia, citing stable gas supplies as a positive outcome. He also accused Ukraine of harming Slovakia's energy security.
- Western Support for Ukraine: A Foreign Policy op-ed by Stephen Walt suggests that supporters of Kyiv in the West may soon face a debate on "Who Lost Ukraine" after the conflict ends.
Other Key Developments:
- Explosions: Explosions have been reported in Kyiv and Cherkasy Oblasts.
- Russian Sniper Activity: Russian sniper pairs from the 35th Army of the "East" group are conducting night hunts on enemy infantry in the Polohy direction. Video evidence suggests they are using thermal or night-vision scopes.
- DeepState Map Update: The map has been updated, reflecting Russian advances in multiple locations and adjustments to the contact line in the Kursk region.
- Russian Propagandist's Health: Prominent Russian propagandist Tigran Keosayan is reportedly in a coma after suffering clinical death due to heart problems.
Updated Situation Analysis
The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are making significant gains in the Donetsk region, particularly around Kurakhove, Pokrovsk, and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is especially critical, with reports indicating further Russian advances within the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region continues, but with heavy fighting and significant losses on both sides. The ISW report confirms Russian advances in both the Donetsk and Kursk regions, underscoring the pressure on Ukrainian defenses.
The new video evidence of Russian artillery successfully targeting and destroying Ukrainian artillery pieces in the Kursk region demonstrates the effectiveness of Russian counter-battery operations and the use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. This development further emphasizes the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region, where they are already struggling to counter Russian advances. The 56th Airborne Regiment and "Northerners" are actively engaging Ukrainian forces, successfully targeting and eliminating artillery systems. The use of "Zala" drones for reconnaissance and "Lancet" drones for strikes underscores the sophisticated tactics employed by Russian forces.
Drone warfare remains a dominant feature of the conflict, with new reports of drone movements across multiple regions. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging these threats. The new report of a drone in the north of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, along with a drone on the border of Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv Oblasts, adds to the list of areas under threat. The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with continued international support for Ukraine and concerns about China's role in supporting Russia's military industry. The Slovak Prime Minister's comments highlight the potential for diverging views among European nations regarding relations with Russia and the impact of the conflict on energy security.
The new messages confirm the ISW's assessment of Russian advances in the Donetsk and Kursk regions. They also highlight the likely redeployment of Russian forces from the Kurakhove direction to the Myrnohrad area in the Pokrovsk direction, suggesting a potential shift in Russian operational focus. The continued drone activity, particularly the new threat in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast, underscores the persistent danger posed by Russian drones. The Slovak Prime Minister's comments regarding stable gas supplies from Russia and his criticism of Ukraine add another layer of complexity to the geopolitical situation, potentially indicating a growing divide among European nations on how to approach the conflict and relations with Russia.
The deteriorating situation for Ukrainian forces in several areas, including further advances in Toretsk and the Kursk region are further confirmed by the DeepState map update and video evidence of Russian positions near Sverdlikovo.
The new messages also introduce information about a migration crisis affecting Western countries, particularly English-speaking ones. This crisis could potentially impact these countries' ability to support Ukraine in the long term, as it may strain resources and create social and economic challenges.
Finally, the reported health condition of a prominent Russian propagandist could potentially impact the information war being waged alongside the physical conflict. The new information regarding a potential debate on "Who Lost Ukraine" among Western supporters of Kyiv adds another layer to the geopolitical analysis. This suggests a growing concern about the outcome of the conflict and potential future political ramifications.
