Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is increasingly precarious for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces are achieving significant gains in the Donetsk region, notably with the capture of Kurakhove and the critical situation in Toretsk, where Ukrainian control has diminished to less than 15% of the city. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with Russian forces consolidating their positions and inflicting heavy losses, estimated as high as 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with extensive drone activity across multiple oblasts, including reports of drones near Dnipro, Poltava, and Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, particularly around Kyiv. The Ukrainian Air Force is providing updates on drone movements.

The geopolitical landscape is complex, with conflicting narratives and competing interests. Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," signal a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Continued military aid from Western countries underscores ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies, and reports of Europe buying record amounts of Russian LNG highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. Environmental concerns, including new oil spills in Crimea and the Black Sea, add another layer of complexity. The situation in Chad, while seemingly contained for now, highlights the potential for regional instability and the involvement of external powers.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway. Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that the city is "factually lost."
Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are advancing, controlling the southern and northern parts and reportedly conducting clean-up operations. The most intense fighting is occurring in the city center, the "Zabalka" microdistrict, near the "Tsentralna" mine, and the northwestern outskirts.
Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk. In the area of Vozdvyzhenka, Russian assault units advanced towards road junctions leading to ravines. Russian units entered Baranovka from the southern and eastern outskirts, initiating an assault. In Yelizavetovka, Russian units are launching attacks, increasing pressure on the enemy.
Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: The 114th brigade of Russian forces has reportedly liberated Shevchenko, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove. Russian forces have also reportedly captured Ivanivka in Donetsk Oblast.
Heroic Battle near Pokrovsk: A Russian tank, accompanied by two BMPs, engaged two Ukrainian tanks at close range near Yelyzavetivka, east of Pokrovsk. The Russian tank destroyed one Ukrainian tank, while the second retreated. Russian infantry subsequently secured positions in Yelyzavetivka.

Kursk Region

Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment. The Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports indicating that up to 50% of Ukrainian infantry in the area may consist of prisoners, including those forcibly mobilized.
Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino.
Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian forces are consolidating positions, entering Malaya Loknya and advancing in Makhnovka. Russian assault groups are operating in Malaya Loknya. Makhnovka is being actively stormed by the Russian army with reports of heavy fighting. Russian forces are completing the clearing of Berdin. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya. Russian forces report that the Sudzha border area (Berdin and surroundings) has been cleared.
Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.
Intense Aerial Bombardment: Reports indicate an unprecedented number of Russian air sorties, with bombers continuously striking Ukrainian positions. Ukrainian sources dispute the intensity of the air attacks.

Luhansk Region

Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Kharkiv Region

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area of Kharkiv Oblast.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, and Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defense forces successfully detected and neutralized about ten hostile drones near Kyiv.
Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out multiple strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.
New Drone Activity:
- Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the eastern part, moving southeast and in the southeast, moving northwest.
- Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are present in the center, moving west.
- Poltava Oblast: Drones are reported in the east, west and southeast, moving west/northwest. City of Poltava is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the southeast.
- Cherkasy Oblast: Drones are located in the north and southwest, moving southwest/north and in the northeast, moving northwest.
- Sumy Oblast: Drones are spotted in the south, moving north and in the center, moving north. City of Sumy is under threat from enemy drones approaching from the west.
- Zhytomyr Oblast: Drones are reported in the northern part, moving west. One drone was reported east of Zviahel, moving southwest.
- Kyiv Oblast: Drones are present in the northern part, moving west. Three drones are reported to be circling in the north, with one approaching Boryspil and one having flown past Obukhiv towards Kyiv.
- Kirovohrad Oblast: Drones are present in the eastern part, moving southwest.
- Dnipropetrovsk Oblast: One drone is reported to be in the Kryvyi Rih district with a trajectory towards the Kherson region, and another is flying over Dolynska in a southerly direction. One drone is also reported to be circling over Samara.
Remaining Drones:
- 2 drones from Cherkasy Oblast are moving to Kyiv Oblast.
- 1 drone is circling near Pryluky.
- 1 drone is circling east of Poltava.
- 1 drone is circling west of Sumy.

Geopolitical Developments

Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely.
Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy.
BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.
Trudeau's Resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party, effective after his successor is chosen.
US Special Representative's Visit Postponed: The US Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, has postponed his visit to Kyiv until after Trump's inauguration.
NATO Maritime Security: NATO countries are forming the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) to protect underwater infrastructure, using British software to monitor specific vessels, including those suspected of being part of a "shadow fleet."
EU Crisis: The Financial Times reports that the EU is facing a security crisis due to Russia and Trump's indifference to Europe.
China's Potential Technological Advantage: China claims a major breakthrough in laser communication "satellite-to-ground," potentially surpassing Elon Musk's Starlink.
Legal Action Against Von Der Leyen: A Belgian court will consider whether European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has legal immunity against corruption allegations related to the purchase of COVID-19 vaccines.
German Foreign Minister on Aid to Syria: German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has made the provision of aid to Syria under new authorities dependent on respect for women's rights, stating that the EU will not send money "to Islamist structures."
North Korean Missile Launch: North Korea has reportedly launched a suspected ballistic missile, according to the Japanese coast guard. The missile fell outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone in the Sea of Japan.
Trump's Potential Pardon: Former US President Donald Trump has reportedly promised to pardon around 1,000 people involved in the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot.
Medvedev's Statement on Zelensky: Dmitry Medvedev, a prominent Russian figure, has intensified his rhetoric against Zelensky, stating that the Russian people's disdain for him should not end with his removal from office.
Hungarian Foreign Minister's Statement: Hungary has resumed the operation of its embassy in Syria, according to Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó.
US Congress confirms Trump's victory: The US Congress has confirmed Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election.
Macron on Iran's Nuclear Program: French President Emmanuel Macron stated that Iran's nuclear program is "approaching the point of no return."
Trump-Xi Contact: Trump has reportedly been in contact with Xi Jinping and hopes for a mutual understanding.

Other Significant Developments

Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
Explosion in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses.
Capture of US Army M577: Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region.
Explosions in Kremenchuk and Poltava: Explosions were reported in the Kremenchuk community and Poltava Oblast.
Chad: Reports of an attack on the presidential palace in N'Djamena, Chad, by "Boko Haram" militants, following the withdrawal of French troops. 19 people, including 18 of the attackers, were killed during the attack on the presidential palace. The situation in Chad seems to have calmed down for now.
Greenland: The Danish Foreign Ministry announced the possibility of Greenland separating from Denmark. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated that the EU will not allow Trump to "invade" Greenland.
Mexico: The President of Mexico called on the US to return territories previously belonging to Mexico, following Trump's statements about Greenland.
Tigran Keosayan's Health: Margarita Simonyan reported that her husband, Tigran Keosayan, experienced clinical death and is currently in a coma.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. Russian forces continue to make significant gains in the Donetsk region while Ukrainian forces face severe challenges in the Kursk region, where their counteroffensive has stalled. The intense fighting in Makhnovka, Kursk region, underscores the ongoing struggle for control over key locations, with Russian forces pushing forward despite fierce resistance from Ukrainian defenders. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports continued drone threats across multiple regions, with specific warnings for cities like Dnipro, Poltava, and Kremenchuk. The reported explosions in the Kremenchuk community and Poltava Oblast underscore the ongoing threat to civilian areas.

The fighting in the Kursk region appears to be intense, with Russian forces successfully repelling Ukrainian attacks and inflicting heavy losses. The reported capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment highlight the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in the area. The potential morale issues within the Ukrainian military, as suggested by the captured soldiers' statements and the reports of forced mobilization, could further complicate their efforts to regain lost ground.

The humanitarian situation in conflict zones remains dire, with civilians in Mariupol and Pokrovsk facing significant hardships. The protests by homeless residents in Mariupol and the need for humanitarian aid in Pokrovsk underscore the ongoing challenges of providing assistance and restoring normalcy in areas affected by the fighting.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with conflicting narratives and competing interests among various actors. The attack on the presidential palace in Chad and the subsequent deaths, along with the contained situation, highlight the potential for regional instability and the involvement of external powers. The ongoing tensions between Russia and the West, as evidenced by the statements regarding military exercises near North Korea's borders, further complicate the situation.

The information war continues unabated, with both sides utilizing propaganda and disinformation to shape public perception and influence morale. The leak of personnel rosters from Ukrainian Regional Territorial Recruitment and Social Support Centers, as reported by Colonelcassad, provides insights into the structure and staffing of these centers, potentially revealing vulnerabilities in the Ukrainian mobilization system. The blocking of Russian state-controlled TV channels by Google represents a significant development in this regard, potentially limiting Russia's ability to spread its narrative within Europe.

Overall, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable, with the potential for further escalation or de-escalation depending on the actions of the involved parties and the response of the international community. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for a negotiated settlement or a protracted war of attrition.

Situation Report