Situation Report

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine is exceedingly precarious. Russian forces are making substantial gains in the Donetsk region, notably with the capture of Kurakhove and the dire situation in Toretsk, where Ukrainian control has dwindled to less than 15% of the city. The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has been decisively repelled, resulting in substantial losses estimated as high as 48,000 casualties. Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with widespread drone activity across multiple oblasts, including reports of drones near Dnipro, Poltava, and Kremenchuk. Ukrainian air defenses are actively engaging drones, with the Ukrainian Air Force providing updates on their movements.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with Zelensky's statements on NATO membership and potential negotiations, along with Macron's call for "realistic discussions," signaling a potential shift in the approach to the conflict. Continued military aid from Western countries underscores ongoing international support for Ukraine. However, the termination of Russian gas transit through Ukraine, Serbia's search for alternative energy supplies, and reports of Europe buying record amounts of Russian LNG highlight the broader economic and geopolitical implications of the conflict. Environmental concerns, including new oil spills in Crimea and the Black Sea, add another layer of complexity.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region

• Fall of Kurakhove: Russian forces have captured Kurakhove, consolidating their positions and posing a direct threat to the strategic Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway.
• Critical Situation in Toretsk: The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are advancing, controlling the southern part and reportedly conducting clean-up operations.
• Russian Advances: Russian forces are making gains near Chasiv Yar, Belogorovka, Ukrainka, Novyi Trud, Ivan-Daryevka, Slavyanka, Petropavlovka, Myrolyubivka, Vodyane Druhe, Baranivka, Zelene Pole, and Tymofiivka. They are intensifying attacks on the Pokrovsk-Konstantinovka highway and making progress in Novovasylivka. Russian forces are approaching the western and northwestern outskirts of Dzerzhynsk.
• Ukrainian Resistance: Ukrainian forces are resisting the Russian advance, reporting the repulsion of a Russian assault near Velyka Novosilka and pushing Russian forces out of the southern part of Novoielizavetivka. Street fighting continues in Toretsk. Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military equipment and personnel, with a mass drone attack reported in the Pokrovsk direction.
• Chasiv Yar: Fighting is reported at the "Chasiv Yar Refractory Plant," with Russian forces claiming new positions in the northern part of Chasiv Yar and an advance of up to 1.5 km.

Kursk Region

• Major Ukrainian Offensive and Losses: A major Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region has resulted in severe Ukrainian losses, estimated at 48,000 casualties. Russian forces have successfully repelled these attacks, inflicting significant damage on Ukrainian equipment.
• Russian Counterattack: Russian forces report repelling a Ukrainian counterattack near Berdin and claim to have destroyed multiple Ukrainian vehicles, including a British Challenger tank. They are engaged in battles near Leonidovo, Alexandria, and Kruglenkoye, with ongoing assaults towards Viktorovka.
• Continued Fighting: Fighting continues near Berdin and Malaya Loknya, with Russian advances in the Sudzha area, particularly near Makhnovka. Russian paratroopers have reportedly pushed Ukrainian forces out of Novosotnitskoe and prevented them from approaching Berdino. Leonidovo has been taken under Russian control. Assault operations are ongoing in Alexandria and in the direction of Nikolsky. Russian forces claim to have destroyed a Ukrainian S-300 air defense system near Malaya Loknya.
• Ukrainian Retreat: Approximately 40 Ukrainian soldiers reportedly retreated from Berdin to Cherkasskoye Porechnoye.

Luhansk Region

• Russian Capture of Ivanivka: Russian forces have captured Ivanivka near Terny, marking a significant advance. They are also attempting to capture heights beyond Ivanovka near Terny and are storming Zahryzove.
• Repelled Infiltrations: Russian forces have repelled over 30 attempts by Ukrainian forces and foreign mercenaries to penetrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses.

Drone Warfare and Aerial Attacks

• Extensive Drone Activity: Drone warfare is a dominant feature of the conflict. Ukrainian forces report successful drone strikes on Russian targets, including a command post near the Toretsk mine and a Russian "Buk-M1" anti-aircraft missile system. FPV drones are being used extensively, particularly by Russian forces.
• Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of drone activity near Kyiv, Dnipro, Poltava, and Kremenchuk.
• Missile Attacks: Reports indicate the use of high-speed missiles, potentially KN-23 type, targeting Chernihiv. The Russian Ministry of Defense claims to have carried out multiple strikes with high-precision weapons and UAVs, targeting Ukrainian military-industrial complex facilities, airfields, arsenals, and other targets. The Ukrainian Air Force reports the use of guided aerial bombs (KABs) in the direction of Kharkiv and Donetsk.
• New Drone Activity:
  • Chernihiv Oblast: Drones are observed in the eastern part, moving southeast.
  • Kharkiv Oblast: Drones are present in the center, moving west.
  • Poltava Oblast: Drones are reported in the east and west, moving west/northwest.
  • Cherkasy Oblast: Drones are located in the north and southwest, moving southwest/north.
  • Sumy Oblast: Drones are spotted in the south, moving north.

Geopolitical Developments

• Zelensky's Statements: Zelensky has indicated a willingness to limit the scope of potential NATO membership to Ukrainian-controlled territory and expressed openness to attending Trump's inauguration if invited.
• Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest that German Chancellor Scholz may meet with Russian President Putin before February 23.
• US Aid: A new US military aid package for Ukraine is expected to be announced soon, but the US has indicated that they will not be able to provide all military aid to Ukraine before January 20th.
• Macron's Statement: Macron has called on Ukrainians to engage in "realistic discussions" on territorial issues, suggesting that a quick and easy solution in Ukraine is unlikely.
• Moldova and Ukraine: Media outlets from Moldova and Ukraine are reportedly attempting to undermine Transnistria's trust in Russia, according to the Russian embassy.
• BRICS: The Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced Indonesia's accession to BRICS as a full member.
• Trudeau's Resignation: Justin Trudeau has announced his resignation as Prime Minister of Canada and leader of the Liberal Party, effective after his successor is chosen.

Other Significant Developments

• Casualty Reports: Ukrainian forces report significant Russian casualties, while Russian sources claim even heavier Ukrainian losses in the Kursk region, reaching 48,000.
• Troop Mobilization: Ukraine has reportedly mobilized 200,000 troops in 2024, falling short of the 500,000 called for by former Commander-in-Chief Zaluzhny.
• Environmental Concerns: Oil spills from sunken tankers in the Black Sea have reached the coasts of Crimea, causing the deaths of dolphins.
• Serbia's Energy Supply: Serbia is seeking new oil and gas supply routes due to the threat of US sanctions.
• Czech Republic Military Aid: The Czech Republic issued 40 permits for Czech citizens to fight for Ukraine in the past year but rejected nearly twice as many applications.
• Explosion in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky: An air raid alert was declared in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov region, followed by a column of smoke rising near military-technical property warehouses.
• Capture of US Army M577: Russian forces claim to have captured a US Army M577 command post vehicle in the Kursk region.
• Explosions in Kremenchuk and Poltava: Explosions were reported in the Kremenchuk community and Poltava Oblast.
• Chad: Reports of an attack on the presidential palace in N'Djamena, Chad, by "Boko Haram" militants, following the withdrawal of French troops. The situation in Chad seems to have calmed down for now.
• Greenland: The Danish Foreign Ministry announced the possibility of Greenland separating from Denmark. French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné stated that the EU will not allow Trump to "invade" Greenland.
• Mexico: The President of Mexico called on the US to return territories previously belonging to Mexico, following Trump's statements about Greenland.
• Tigran Keosayan's Health: Margarita Simonyan reported that her husband, Tigran Keosayan, experienced clinical death and is currently in a coma.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing to make gains in the Donetsk region while Ukrainian forces face significant challenges in the Kursk region. Drone warfare remains a dominant feature, with both sides employing drones for reconnaissance, targeting, and attacks. The Ukrainian Air Force reports continued drone threats across multiple regions, with specific warnings for cities like Dnipro, Poltava, and Kremenchuk. The reported explosions in the Kremenchuk community and Poltava Oblast underscore the ongoing threat to civilian areas.

The fighting in the Kursk region appears to be intense, with Russian forces successfully repelling Ukrainian attacks and inflicting heavy losses. The reported capture of Ukrainian soldiers and the destruction of Ukrainian equipment highlight the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in the area. The potential morale issues within the Ukrainian military, as suggested by the captured soldiers' statements, could further complicate their efforts to regain lost ground.

The humanitarian situation in conflict zones remains dire, with civilians in Mariupol and Pokrovsk facing significant hardships. The protests by homeless residents in Mariupol and the need for humanitarian aid in Pokrovsk underscore the ongoing challenges of providing assistance and restoring normalcy in areas affected by the fighting.

The geopolitical landscape remains complex, with conflicting narratives and competing interests among various actors. The situation in Chad, while seemingly contained for now, highlights the potential for regional instability and the involvement of external powers. The ongoing tensions between Russia and the West, as evidenced by the statements regarding military exercises near North Korea's borders, further complicate the situation.

The information war continues unabated, with both sides utilizing propaganda and disinformation to shape public perception and influence morale. The blocking of Russian state-controlled TV channels by Google represents a significant development in this regard, potentially limiting Russia's ability to spread its narrative within Europe.

Overall, the situation remains fluid and unpredictable, with the potential for further escalation or de-escalation depending on the actions of the involved parties and the response of the international community. The coming days and weeks will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the conflict and the potential for a negotiated settlement or a protracted war of attrition.