Sitrep 2025-01-08 15:37:28

Updated Situation in Ukraine - January 8th, 2025, 15:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile. Russian forces are making significant advances in the Donetsk region, particularly in Toretsk (less than 15% under Ukrainian control) and Pokrovsk. Kurakhove has been fully captured. The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of heavy losses (estimated up to 48,000 casualties). A renewed Russian offensive is underway in the Kursk region near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina, with advances reported near Novaya Sorochina. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.

Drone warfare remains a central element, with widespread activity and new tactics reported. A confirmed Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, marks a significant escalation. The fire at the oil depot in Engels is intensifying, with reports of new explosions and a state of emergency declared.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine. Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects strained relations.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region: Intense Fighting and Russian Advances

Toretsk Under Severe Pressure: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Battles continue along major streets, with Russian forces advancing.
Kurakhove "Factually Lost": Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that Kurakhove is "factually lost," with Ukrainian forces struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have reportedly captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk.
Continued Clashes: Fighting continues near Velyka Novosilka, Dachne, Ulakly-Konstantinopol-Razliv area, Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, and Shevchenko. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 111 combat clashes since the beginning of the day, particularly in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. The enemy is using all available forces and means to achieve its goals. On the Kramatorsk direction, the invaders carried out airstrikes on Vasyukivka, Priville, Markove and Nikiforivka, dropping seven KABs. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy concentrated its offensive efforts in the areas of Toretsk and Diliivka, where five combat clashes took place, at this time the battle is raging. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of the day, the occupiers have already made 26 attempts to push our defenders out of their positions in the areas of the settlements of Myrolyubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Novy Trud, Kotlyne and Nadiyivka. The defense forces are holding back the onslaught, at this time 21 enemy attacks have been repelled, five combat clashes are still ongoing. The enemy's losses are being clarified. Fighting continues near Dachny, Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, Slavyanka and Yasenove in the Kurakhove direction. Fierce fighting is going on. Enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in Novovasylivka, Slavyanka, near Neskuchny and Yantarny. The new messages confirm that Russian forces are continuing their attacks, with reports of six settlements in the Belgorod region coming under fire. This suggests a pattern of cross-border attacks by Ukrainian forces, potentially in retaliation for Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory. The reported damage to civilian homes and infrastructure further emphasizes the impact of the conflict on civilians caught in the crossfire. The use of drones in these attacks, as mentioned in the governor's report, highlights the increasing role of unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare.

Kursk Region: Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Renewed Russian Offensive

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of heavy losses. Russian forces are consolidating positions and repelling Ukrainian attacks. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Kursk region, with attacks near Nikolaevka and the outskirts of Staraya Sorochina near Malaya Loknya. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced near Novaya Sorochina, Kursk region. Russian channels report that the situation near Makhnovka is as follows: "Statements about the complete liberation of the settlement are premature. There are heavy oncoming battles. Moreover, the enemy understands that the loss of Makhnovka and Zamostya will greatly complicate the defense of Sudzha, therefore it is putting up fierce resistance, actively working with artillery, there are no escapes from positions. Nevertheless, our men are literally gnawing out every meter of land. There will be good news, let's be patient."
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves.

Kharkiv Region: Limited Activity

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area. Enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in Dvurichna.
Road Closure in Kherson Suburbs: Bus traffic has been temporarily suspended in the suburbs of Kherson (Naddniprianske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne) due to increased shelling by Russian forces.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River).

Drone Warfare: Continued Activity and Deep Strikes

Confirmed Drone Attack in Engels, Saratov Region: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels has been confirmed, marking a significant escalation and demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot in Engels is intensifying. Locals suggest the cause is another burning reservoir. The fire at the oil depot in Engels, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones, continues to burn fiercely, with reports of new explosions. The fire has not been extinguished for over 14 hours. A state of emergency will be introduced in Engels, Saratov region in connection with a fire at an industrial enterprise after a drone attack, the governor said. Two people died during the fire. The new messages confirm that Russian forces have successfully repelled over 30 Ukrainian attempts to infiltrate the Luhansk People's Republic in the past week, resulting in significant Ukrainian losses. The new messages also highlight a potential information operation by Ukrainian sources, falsely claiming a hack of Rosreestr (the Russian Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre, and Cartography). The debunking of this claim by a pro-Russian hacker ("Joker DPR") underscores the ongoing information warfare between the two sides. The use of old data and fabricated reports to create panic and sow discord is a common tactic in such operations. The emphasis on not believing these "injections" further demonstrates the importance of media literacy and critical thinking in the current conflict environment. The historical anecdotes and propaganda pieces shared by various channels provide context and insight into the ongoing information warfare and attempts to shape public opinion. The new messages also highlight that Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with reports of a drone being shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia. This further emphasizes the widespread use of drones in the conflict and the ongoing threat they pose to both military and civilian targets.
Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles used for ammunition resupply near Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. Also, the Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the Donetsk region. The new messages confirm that Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with reports of a drone being shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia and an attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region. These incidents further emphasize the widespread use of drones in the conflict and the ongoing threat they pose to both military and civilian targets.

Geopolitical Developments: Shifting Alliances and Diplomatic Maneuvers

France Calls for Action Against Elon Musk: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk.
Ukraine Offers to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
Closure of Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg: The Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been officially closed.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd. A TASS representative from the entourage of the next American leader said that Trump's transition team believes it is possible for Russia and the United States to reach a major security deal after the upcoming change of power in Washington.
Poland's Defense Minister on Ramstein Format: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
EU on US-Greenland Relations: The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. Germany claims that the US cannot simply take and change the borders of one of the EU countries by annexing Greenland to itself. In fact, they can, because there is a precedent with Cyprus, when one NATO country took a piece of territory from another NATO country.
Greenland's Prime Minister to Meet with Danish King: Amid statements from Trump about a possible takeover of Greenland, the Prime Minister of Greenland is scheduled to meet with the King of Denmark.
EU spokesperson on Ukraine-Russia gas transit: An EU spokesperson urged respect for the sovereignty of countries after Trump's statements on Greenland. "This is also our diplomatic value and a key principle by which we work. This also applies to Denmark," said EU spokeswoman Anita Hipper. She also stated that the termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe is unacceptable and contradicts its intentions to join the European Union, said Peter Szijjártó. The new messages also highlight a statement from Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó, who claims that Ukraine's termination of Russian gas transit to Europe is unacceptable and contradicts its intentions to join the European Union. This statement further emphasizes the geopolitical tensions surrounding energy supplies and the potential impact on relations between Ukraine, Russia, and the EU.

Other Significant Developments

Weather Forecast: A warming trend is forecasted for Ukraine, which could impact military operations, particularly in terms of ground mobility and logistics.
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: One person was killed and six were wounded in a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia. The number of wounded has risen to six. The number of wounded in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to thirty. The new messages confirm the continuation of attacks on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of one person killed and six wounded. The attacks seem to be primarily targeting civilian infrastructure, as indicated by the damage to the industrial infrastructure and the tram. The warnings from Ukrainian officials to remain in safe places underscore the ongoing danger to civilians in the region. The involvement of the Ukrainian Air Force in issuing alerts about incoming guided aerial bombs indicates that they are actively monitoring the situation and attempting to provide early warnings. The number of wounded in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to thirty.
Russian Information Operation Debunked: A Russian information operation regarding a "blogger registry" has been debunked as a Ukrainian fabrication. Enemy's psychological operation: Hackers claimed to have hacked Rosreestr and stolen the database of the state real estate register (EGRN) in two billion lines. "We can state a successful information and psychological operation of the Ukrainians. No one hacked Roskomnadzor and did not receive lists of bloggers," writes the pro-Russian hacker Joker DNR. 1. The enemy did not accidentally choose Rosreestr (consonant with the RKN, with the register of bloggers, etc.). 2. The hacking of the real estate register posted on the network is a compilation of old data. 3. The গুজব of enemy channels about the fall of knd.gov.ru are not related to the real estate registry. There were really glitches in the system due to primitive DDOS attacks by Ukrainian schoolchildren. 4. Everything is OK with the real estate register and with knd.gov.ru with the register of bloggers (which, I repeat, is not connected with the real estate register in any way). Nobody stole it." "The injections may continue with collages of old leaks and fabricated data. Don't believe it..." - sums up the Joker DNR.
Internal Political Maneuvering in Ukraine: Reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, could impact the country's leadership and decision-making during the conflict. The Office of the President of Ukraine is trying to convince Valery Zaluzhny not to participate in the presidential elections in order to ensure the re-election of Zelensky. According to the publication "Telegraph", in case of refusal, Zaluzhny is threatened with criminal cases, but in case of agreement, he is offered first place in the list of the Zelensky party in the parliamentary elections and the post of speaker of the Verkhovna Rada. Zelensky, as it is claimed, has already decided to run for a second term, but his plans may be under threat, since Zaluzhny is considered the favorite according to opinion polls.
Arrest of Mercenaries in Venezuela: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries," including three Ukrainian citizens.
Asset Reclassification in Moscow: 146 specially protected natural areas in Moscow have been reclassified, removing them from federal protection and allowing for construction.
Legal Action Against Ukrainian MP: A Ukrainian MP and his former assistant are facing trial for organizing illegal border crossings.
Rheinmetall IFV: Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine.
Six settlements in the Belgorod region were attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the governor: On January 8, the villages of Voznesenovka, Shebekinsky district, the village of Cheremoshnoye, Belgorod region, the village of Yasnye Zori, the village of Oktyabrsky, the village of Grafovka, Krasnoyaruzhsky district and the village of Kukuyevka, Valuysky district, came under fire. Several houses and cars were damaged. There is no information about the victims at the moment, Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
New Ukrainian brigade: Drapaty reported to Zelensky regarding the 155th brigade: He clarified the situation, named the reasons, those responsible. "I met with the brigade command and French journalists who are currently working in the unit, visiting positions to see with their own eyes how the soldiers of "Anna of Kyiv" perform combat missions and operate the weapons provided by France. All the events with the creation of the 155 brigade happened before my appointment to the KSV. However, I consider it my duty to respond to the problems of the subordinate unit and solve them systematically - at all levels that depend on me," the commander said. Drapaty noted that the formation and arming "from scratch" of a new brigade together with a foreign country took place for the first time and in a fairly short time - in just a few months. "Currently, the focus is on recruiting experienced officers and commanders of all ranks. I am personally engaged in this matter. I am ready to consider everyone, contact this e-mail address: 155bde@mil.ua. The personnel of the brigade underwent coordination in difficult conditions. This was not enough to create comrades from the recruits. I was in a similar situation as a commander and I know how important it is. Especially when the brigade is already at war. Therefore, a special group of psychologists is working to strengthen the brigade commander in the units. There are certain results, for example, the return of servicemen who voluntarily left the unit. AWOL. The situation is not simple. The main challenge faced by the brigade is the low efficiency and motivation of middle-level commanders who directly manage people. This, as well as the involvement of units in combat operations, determines the number of AWOLs in the 155th Brigade. I must note that I did not observe mass cases of soldiers leaving their combat positions. Instead, I observe a certain substitution of concepts when the number of AWOLs equals cases of desertion. There is no simple recipe here - it is necessary to work on solving all the problematic issues that cause AWOL, not only in the Ground Forces, but in general in the Armed Forces. The number of AWOLs in the brigade will decrease in proportion to the decisions that will affect the combat capability and motivation of the personnel. This is a common task of the authorities and the Defense Forces, and all those responsible have received instructions," Drapaty emphasized. He announced that from today a special hotline of the Ground Forces commander for servicemen of the 155th Brigade will work. Phone: 0800-500-410 (after listening - number 5). It works from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily. "And finally. I believe that the 155th brigade named after Anna of Kyiv is promising and will show itself. Yes, it takes time and the efforts of many to correct the mistakes made during the formation. But the newly created Ukrainian brigade named after Anna of Kyiv can and should become a real "Gallic rooster" - a symbol of France: proud, unbreakable, and ready to fight for freedom," the commander summarized.

The new messages confirm the continuation of attacks on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of thirty wounded. The attacks seem to be primarily targeting civilian infrastructure. The warnings from Ukrainian officials to remain in safe places underscore the ongoing danger to civilians in the region. The involvement of the Ukrainian Air Force in issuing alerts about incoming guided aerial bombs indicates that they are actively monitoring the situation and attempting to provide early warnings.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant advances in the Donetsk region and Ukrainian forces facing challenges in maintaining their defensive lines. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region signifies a shift in momentum. The continued pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian defensive lines. The intensification of drone warfare underscores the evolving nature of the conflict. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, represents a significant development and a potential turning point in Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets. The fire at the oil depot in Engels continues to burn fiercely, with reports of new explosions.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects the strained relations between Russia and Western countries.

The new information regarding the Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post, the ongoing drone attacks, and the geopolitical developments further emphasizes the complexity and volatility of the situation. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict.

The new messages also highlight that Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with reports of a drone being shot down over the Bryansk region of Russia and an attack on the village of Rzhevka in the Belgorod region. Additionally, there is a report of a family injured in a drone attack on a car in the Belgorod region. These incidents further emphasize the widespread use of drones in the conflict and the ongoing threat they pose to both military and civilian targets. The use of drones to target civilians, as reported in the Belgorod region, is a concerning development that could further escalate the conflict and lead to increased civilian casualties.

The new messages also highlight that the fire at the oil depot in Engels, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones, continues to burn fiercely, with reports of new explosions. The fire has not been extinguished for over 14 hours, and a state of emergency has been declared in the region. This incident further underscores the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory and the potential for long-range drone strikes to disrupt military operations and logistics. The reported deaths of two emergency responders during the firefighting efforts highlight the risks associated with such incidents.

The new messages also highlight that Ukrainian forces are continuing their drone attacks, with new videos showing the fire at the oil depot in Engels from various perspectives. The videos confirm that the fire is still burning and that new explosions are occurring, underscoring the severity of the attack and the challenges faced by emergency responders. The use of drones to target critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory, as seen in the Engels attack, represents a significant escalation in the conflict and highlights the evolving nature of warfare. The new messages also highlight a report from the Ukrainian General Staff, stating that the enemy is particularly active in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. This information further emphasizes the ongoing intense fighting in the Donetsk region and the challenges faced by Ukrainian forces in maintaining their defensive lines. The reported high number of combat clashes (111 since the beginning of the day) underscores the intensity of the conflict and the determination of both sides to achieve their objectives. The new messages also highlight that Ukrainian forces have released a new video showing the aftermath of a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia. The video, reportedly filmed by a driver's dashcam, captures the moment of the attack and the resulting damage. This footage provides further evidence of the ongoing attacks on civilian areas and the impact of the conflict on the civilian population. The release of such videos by Ukrainian sources serves to document the attacks and potentially garner international support. The new messages also highlight a report from Russian media outlet TASS, stating that leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. This development further emphasizes the shifting geopolitical landscape and the potential impact on international relations. The statement from German Chancellor Scholz, emphasizing the principle of inviolability of borders, underscores the concern among European leaders regarding any potential changes to the status quo. The new messages also highlight a report from the Ukrainian Air Force, stating that repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation have been detected in the direction of Sumy. This information further emphasizes the ongoing threat posed by Russian air attacks and the use of guided munitions. The continued use of such weapons underscores the need for enhanced air defense capabilities and early warning systems. The new messages also highlight a report from the Ukrainian Air Force, stating that repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation have been detected in the direction of Sumy. This information further emphasizes the ongoing threat posed by Russian air attacks and the use of guided munitions. The continued use of such weapons underscores the need for enhanced air defense capabilities and early warning systems. The new messages also highlight a video reportedly showing Ukrainian soldiers distributing food to civilians in Niger. The video, shared by the Rybar Telegram channel, is presented as evidence of the positive role of Ukrainian forces in Africa. However, the report also mentions that local authorities expressed dissatisfaction with the incident, and that the soldiers were reprimanded by their command for their unauthorized actions. This incident underscores the complexities of operating in foreign environments and the importance of coordinating with local authorities. It also highlights the potential for such actions to be misinterpreted or used for propaganda purposes by opposing sides. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the Russian Ministry of Defense, reportedly showing Russian troops undergoing training in the rear area of the Zaporizhzhia region. The video, which focuses on countering enemy drones, underscores the importance of training and adapting to the evolving nature of warfare. The emphasis on counter-drone measures highlights the growing threat posed by unmanned aerial systems and the need for effective countermeasures. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the Russian Ministry of Defense, reportedly showing Russian helicopters engaging Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region border area. The video, which features Mi-28nm, Ka-52m, and Mi-8PSG helicopters, demonstrates the continued use of air power by Russian forces in the conflict. The reported rocket strike on Ukrainian manpower and materiel underscores the ongoing fighting in the region and the use of air assets to support ground operations. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the Colonelcassad Telegram channel, reportedly showing two captured Ukrainian soldiers who were trapped in a bunker near Kurakhove. The video, which features the soldiers thanking Russian forces for their rescue and urging an end to the conflict, is likely intended for propaganda purposes. The release of such videos by Russian sources aims to portray a humane image of their forces and potentially influence public opinion. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the "Операция Z: Военкоры Русской Весны" Telegram channel, reportedly showing Russian forces engaging Ukrainian infantry on the Kurakhiv direction. The video, which features drone footage of strikes on Ukrainian positions, underscores the continued fighting in the region and the use of drones for reconnaissance and targeting. The reported involvement of the 255th regiment highlights the specific units involved in the operations. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the ASTRA Telegram channel, reportedly showing a drone attack on a car in the Belgorod region, resulting in injuries to a civilian couple. This incident further emphasizes the use of drones in the conflict and the potential for civilian casualties. The reported involvement of Ukrainian forces in the attack underscores the cross-border nature of the conflict and the ongoing threat to civilian populations in border regions.

Overall, the situation requires close monitoring and a reassessment of strategic objectives and resource allocation in light of the recent developments, particularly the renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region, the continued intensification of drone warfare, and the evolving geopolitical landscape. The new messages also highlight that Ukrainian forces have released a new video showing a fire at an oil depot in Engels, Russia, following a drone attack. The video, shared by the Butusov Plus Telegram channel, confirms that the fire is still burning and that new explosions are occurring. This incident further underscores the vulnerability of critical infrastructure deep inside Russian territory and the potential for long-range drone strikes to disrupt military operations and logistics. The reported involvement of the "Krystal" oil depot, which supplies fuel to the Engels-2 airbase, highlights the strategic importance of the target. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the "Шеф Hayabusa🫡🇺🇦" Telegram channel, reportedly showing further explosions at the oil depot in Engels. The video, which features the caption "😎🇺🇦 бочки продовжують вибухати. Ух, двіжуха, як і хотіли)" (😎🇺🇦 barrels continue to explode. Oh, the movement, as they wanted)), underscores the ongoing nature of the attack and the continued threat to the facility. The use of emojis and informal language suggests a sense of satisfaction or accomplishment on the part of the Ukrainian forces involved in the operation. The new messages also highlight a report from the TASS news agency, stating that leaders of European countries have expressed misunderstanding towards recent statements by Trump regarding Greenland and the Panama Canal. This development further emphasizes the shifting geopolitical landscape and the potential impact on international relations. The statement from German Chancellor Scholz, emphasizing the principle of inviolability of borders, underscores the concern among European leaders regarding any potential changes to the status quo. The new messages also highlight a video shared by the "Оперативний ЗСУ" Telegram channel, reportedly showing further explosions at the oil depot in Engels. The video, which features the caption "🔥В Енгельсі конкретна ДВІЖУХА" (🔥There is a real movement in Engels), underscores the ongoing nature of the attack and the continued threat to the facility. The use of informal language suggests a sense of satisfaction or accomplishment on the part of the Ukrainian forces involved in the operation. The new messages also highlight a report from the Ukrainian Air Force, stating that there is a threat of enemy tactical aviation activity in the north-eastern direction. This information further emphasizes the ongoing threat posed by Russian air attacks and the need for enhanced air defense capabilities and early warning systems. The new messages also highlight a report from the Russian Ministry of Defense, stating that another Ukrainian missile has been shot down over the Kursk region. This incident further emphasizes the ongoing cross-border attacks and the use of missiles in the conflict. The reported involvement of air defense forces underscores the importance of protecting critical infrastructure and population centers.

Recommendations

Urgently reinforce Toretsk and Pokrovsk: Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems to counter the Russian advance. Prioritize the deployment of anti-tank weapons and units capable of countering armored thrusts.
Address the information leak: Investigate the alleged leak of information about the Kursk counteroffensive and take measures to prevent future breaches.
Enhance counter-drone capabilities: Deploy advanced counter-drone systems and develop tactics to mitigate the effectiveness of Russian FPV drones. Continue to invest in and develop drone technology for precision strikes.
Secure critical infrastructure: Enhance the protection of critical infrastructure, particularly nuclear power plants. Deploy additional air defense systems and security personnel.
Address troop mobilization challenges: Take steps to address any shortcomings in troop mobilization efforts to ensure sufficient manpower.
Strengthen international support: Seek further military and financial assistance from international partners. Emphasize the need for advanced weapons systems, long-range missiles, air defense systems, and counter-drone technology. Leverage Zelensky's positive comments about Elon Musk to encourage further support.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian disinformation and propaganda efforts by providing accurate and timely information. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses. Exploit any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media. Develop a strategy to counter Colonelcassad's propaganda efforts. Analyze the new propaganda videos released by Colonelcassad and develop counter-messaging.
Logistical Preparedness: Ensure the availability of sufficient supplies, ammunition, and equipment. Anticipate and mitigate logistical challenges, particularly in the face of increased drone attacks.
Intelligence Gathering: Enhance intelligence-gathering capabilities to monitor Russian troop movements, identify potential threats, and anticipate future actions. Utilize all available sources, including satellite imagery, signals intelligence, and human intelligence. Pay particular attention to the situation in Sumy Oblast.
Training and Adaptation: Continuously train troops on the latest tactics and technologies, with a particular focus on drone warfare and counter-drone measures. Adapt strategies and tactics based on the evolving nature of the conflict. Leverage the experience gained from the training of Ukrainian soldiers in Britain.
Exploit Russian Weaknesses: Capitalize on any internal disagreements or conflicting narratives within Russian media to sow confusion and undermine morale.
Enhance Counter-Tank Capabilities: Deploy additional anti-tank weapons and units to areas where armored engagements are likely.
Monitor and Respond to Developments: Closely monitor the situation in all regions, particularly where Russian forces are making advances or Ukrainian forces are conducting offensive operations. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed.
Prepare for Potential Escalation: Given the increased drone activity in Sumy Oblast and the fighting in the Kursk region, prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations.
Maintain Operational Security: Emphasize the importance of operational security to prevent Russian forces from gaining intelligence on Ukrainian troop movements, deployments, and intentions.
Prioritize Troop Welfare: Ensure that troops are adequately equipped, supplied, and supported to maintain morale and combat effectiveness. Address any issues related to troop welfare, including medical care, rest, and rotation.
Develop a Clear Strategic Vision: Ensure that all military operations are aligned with a clear strategic vision and long-term objectives. Regularly assess the effectiveness of current strategies and make adjustments as needed.
Foster Innovation: Encourage innovation and the development of new technologies and tactics to counter emerging threats and maintain a competitive advantage. Invest in research and development, particularly in drone warfare, counter-drone measures, and electronic warfare.
Enhance defenses in Sumy Oblast: Reinforce defenses and prepare for potential incursions or escalations in this region. Deploy additional troops, anti-tank weapons, and air defense systems as needed.
Counter Russian advances in Donetsk region: Prioritize efforts to halt Russian progress and stabilize the front lines. Deploy reinforcements, enhance defensive positions, and conduct counterattacks where feasible.
Exploit Russian vulnerabilities in Vremivka direction: Explore opportunities to exploit any vulnerabilities in Russian positions and conduct counteroffensives to regain lost territory.
Address potential widening of conflict along the border: Prepare for the possibility of the conflict widening along the border. Develop contingency plans for responding to potential Russian incursions or escalations in these areas.
Enhance cooperation with international partners: Strengthen diplomatic efforts with international partners to ensure continued support for Ukraine and address any potential shifts in policy or allegiances.
Monitor and respond to developments in other regions: Continue to monitor the situation in other regions, such as Zaporizhzhia. Be prepared to adjust strategies and redeploy forces as needed.
Prepare for potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape: Anticipate any potential shifts in the geopolitical landscape that could impact the conflict. Develop contingency plans for various scenarios and strengthen diplomatic efforts to maintain international support.
Counter Russian information operations: Counter Russian information operations by providing accurate and timely information to the public. Highlight Ukrainian successes and Russian losses to maintain morale and international support.
Address potential impact of Turkish naval developments: Assess the potential impact on the regional balance of power, particularly in the Black Sea. Develop strategies to counter any potential threats and strengthen cooperation with other regional partners.
Prepare for potential escalation in drone warfare: Anticipate further escalation in drone warfare. Invest in counter-drone technologies and develop tactics to counter the threat posed by enemy drones.
Address potential humanitarian crisis: Prepare for a potential humanitarian crisis. Coordinate with international organizations and NGOs to provide assistance to affected populations and address any potential refugee flows.
Enhance cybersecurity measures: Enhance cybersecurity measures to protect critical infrastructure, communication networks, and sensitive data from cyber attacks and espionage.
Address potential economic consequences: Develop strategies to mitigate any potential economic consequences for Ukraine. Seek international support to address any potential economic challenges.
Prepare for potential shifts in Russian strategy: Anticipate any potential shifts in Russian strategy or tactics. Monitor troop movements and deployments to identify any changes in their approach to the conflict.
Counter the narrative of a "bad" peace deal: Develop a communication strategy to counter the narrative of a "bad" peace deal that could weaken Ukraine and embolden Russia. Emphasize the importance of a strong and just peace that ensures Ukraine's security and territorial integrity.
Prepare for potential negotiations: Prepare for potential negotiations with Russia. Develop a clear set of objectives and principles for any peace talks, and coordinate with international partners to ensure a united front.
Address the reported destruction in Toretsk: Assess the humanitarian needs of the civilian population and

Situation Report