Updated Military Situation in Ukraine - January 8th, 2025, 15:03 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces continuing their offensive in the Donetsk region and Ukrainian forces struggling to maintain their defensive lines. The situation in Toretsk is critical, with less than 15% of the city under Ukrainian control. Russian advances are also reported near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, which has been fully captured. In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has stalled, with reports of heavy losses. Drone warfare remains a central element of the conflict, with both sides utilizing drones for reconnaissance and attacks. A significant development is the confirmed Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory. The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region: Intense Fighting and Russian Advances

Toretsk Under Severe Pressure: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control. Battles continue along major streets, with Russian forces advancing into the western and northern parts of the city. The enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in Toretsk (Dzerzhinsk). The channel "Whisper of the Front" reports: "As it were, Toretsk is all, Krymskoye is left." According to Russian channels, the Toretskaya mine and its terricones "still remain under the control of the Ukrainian Armed Forces."
Kurakhove "Factually Lost": Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that Kurakhove is "factually lost," with Ukrainian forces struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant. Enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in Kurakhove.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have reportedly captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast. This facility was reportedly used by Russian forces to coordinate attacks against Ukrainian forces and civilians, particularly in Kurakhove.
Continued Clashes: Fighting continues in various locations, including near Velyka Novosilka, Dachne, Ulakly-Konstantinopol-Razliv area, Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, and Shevchenko. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that there have been 111 combat clashes since the beginning of the day. The situation on the front is characterized by particular activity of the enemy in the Pokrovsky and Kurakhiv directions. The enemy is using all available forces and means to achieve its goals. The defense forces are acting professionally and efficiently, inflicting significant losses on the enemy. On the Kramatorsk direction, the invaders carried out airstrikes on Vasyukivka, Priville, Markove and Nikiforivka, dropping seven KABs. On the Toretsk direction, the enemy concentrated its offensive efforts in the areas of Toretsk and Diliivka, where five combat clashes took place, at this time the battle is raging. On the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of the day, the occupiers have already made 26 attempts to push our defenders out of their positions in the areas of the settlements of Myrolyubivka, Baranivka, Yelyzavetivka, Lysivka, Zelene, Zvirove, Novy Trud, Kotlyne and Nadiyivka. The defense forces are holding back the onslaught, at this time 21 enemy attacks have been repelled, five combat clashes are still ongoing. The enemy's losses are being clarified. Fighting continues near Dachny, Kurakhove, Shevchenko, Petropavlivka, Slavyanka and Yasenove in the Kurakhove direction. According to updated information, 18 of the 25 attacks by the occupying army have already been repulsed today. Fierce fighting is going on. The enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in Novovasylivka, Slavyanka, near Neskuchny and Yantarny.
Ukrainian Counterattack near Malynivka: Ukrainian forces reportedly repelled a Russian attack in the direction of Malynivka, damaging or destroying several Russian armored vehicles.

Kursk Region: Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Renewed Russian Offensive

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of heavy losses. Russian forces are consolidating positions and repelling Ukrainian attacks. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports that in Kurshchyna today, Ukrainian defenders repelled 16 enemy attacks, six combat clashes continue.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Kursk region, with a significant concentration of attacks near Nikolaevka and the outskirts of Staraya Sorochina near Malaya Loknya. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. Enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced near Novaya Sorochina, Kursk region. Russian channels report that the situation near Makhnovka is as follows: "Statements about the complete liberation of the settlement are premature. There are heavy oncoming battles. Moreover, the enemy understands that the loss of Makhnovka and Zamostya will greatly complicate the defense of Sudzha, therefore it is putting up fierce resistance, actively working with artillery, there are no escapes from positions. Nevertheless, our men are literally gnawing out every meter of land. There will be good news, let's be patient."
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves.
Air and Missile Activity: Air raid alerts have been issued for Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts due to aviation and missile threats. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.

Kharkiv Region: Limited Activity

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area. Enemy channel Deep State reports that the Russian Armed Forces have advanced in Dvurichna.
Road Closure in Kherson Suburbs: Bus traffic has been temporarily suspended in the suburbs of Kherson (Naddniprianske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne) due to increased shelling by Russian forces.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River).

Drone Warfare: Continued Activity and Deep Strikes

Confirmed Drone Attack in Engels, Saratov Region: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels has been confirmed, marking a significant escalation and demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory. The fire at the oil depot in Engels is intensifying, with reports of another fuel tank catching fire. Locals suggest the cause is another burning reservoir. The fire at the oil depot in Engels, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones, continues to burn fiercely, with reports of new explosions. The fire has not been extinguished for over 14 hours.
Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles used for ammunition resupply near Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic. The Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports repeated launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aircraft in the direction of Zaporizhzhia. Also, the Air Force reports launches of guided aerial bombs by enemy tactical aviation in the Donetsk region.

Geopolitical Developments: Shifting Alliances and Diplomatic Maneuvers

France Calls for Action Against Elon Musk: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk.
Ukraine Offers to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
Closure of Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg: The Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been officially closed.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd. A TASS representative from the entourage of the next American leader said that Trump's transition team believes it is possible for Russia and the United States to reach a major security deal after the upcoming change of power in Washington.
Poland's Defense Minister on Ramstein Format: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
EU on US-Greenland Relations: The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland. Germany claims that the US cannot simply take and change the borders of one of the EU countries by annexing Greenland to itself. In fact, they can, because there is a precedent with Cyprus, when one NATO country took a piece of territory from another NATO country.
Greenland's Prime Minister to Meet with Danish King: Amid statements from Trump about a possible takeover of Greenland, the Prime Minister of Greenland is scheduled to meet with the King of Denmark.
EU spokesperson on Ukraine-Russia gas transit: An EU spokesperson urged respect for the sovereignty of countries after Trump's statements on Greenland. "This is also our diplomatic value and a key principle by which we work. This also applies to Denmark," said EU spokeswoman Anita Hipper. She also stated that the termination of the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine to Europe is unacceptable and contradicts its intentions to join the European Union, said Peter Szijjártó.

Other Significant Developments

Weather Forecast: A warming trend is forecasted for Ukraine, which could impact military operations, particularly in terms of ground mobility and logistics.
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: One person was killed and six were wounded in a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia. The number of wounded has risen to six. The number of wounded in the Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia has increased to thirty.
Russian Information Operation Debunked: A Russian information operation regarding a "blogger registry" has been debunked as a Ukrainian fabrication. Enemy's psychological operation: Hackers claimed to have hacked Rosreestr and stolen the database of the state real estate register (EGRN) in two billion lines. "We can state a successful information and psychological operation of the Ukrainians. No one hacked Roskomnadzor and did not receive lists of bloggers," writes the pro-Russian hacker Joker DNR. 1. The enemy did not accidentally choose Rosreestr (consonant with the RKN, with the register of bloggers, etc.). 2. The hacking of the real estate register posted on the network is a compilation of old data. 3. The গুজব of enemy channels about the fall of knd.gov.ru are not related to the real estate registry. There were really glitches in the system due to primitive DDOS attacks by Ukrainian schoolchildren. 4. Everything is OK with the real estate register and with knd.gov.ru with the register of bloggers (which, I repeat, is not connected with the real estate register in any way). Nobody stole it." "The injections may continue with collages of old leaks and fabricated data. Don't believe it..." - sums up the Joker DNR.
Internal Political Maneuvering in Ukraine: Reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, could impact the country's leadership and decision-making during the conflict. The Office of the President of Ukraine is trying to convince Valery Zaluzhny not to participate in the presidential elections in order to ensure the re-election of Zelensky. According to the publication "Telegraph", in case of refusal, Zaluzhny is threatened with criminal cases, but in case of agreement, he is offered first place in the list of the Zelensky party in the parliamentary elections and the post of speaker of the Verkhovna Rada. Zelensky, as it is claimed, has already decided to run for a second term, but his plans may be under threat, since Zaluzhny is considered the favorite according to opinion polls.
Arrest of Mercenaries in Venezuela: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries," including three Ukrainian citizens.
Asset Reclassification in Moscow: 146 specially protected natural areas in Moscow have been reclassified, removing them from federal protection and allowing for construction.
Legal Action Against Ukrainian MP: A Ukrainian MP and his former assistant are facing trial for organizing illegal border crossings.
Rheinmetall IFV: Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine.
Six settlements in the Belgorod region were attacked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine - the governor: On January 8, the villages of Voznesenovka, Shebekinsky district, the village of Cheremoshnoye, Belgorod region, the village of Yasnye Zori, the village of Oktyabrsky, the village of Grafovka, Krasnoyaruzhsky district and the village of Kukuyevka, Valuysky district, came under fire. Several houses and cars were damaged. There is no information about the victims at the moment, Vyacheslav Gladkov said.
New Ukrainian brigade: Drapaty reported to Zelensky regarding the 155th brigade: He clarified the situation, named the reasons, those responsible. "I met with the brigade command and French journalists who are currently working in the unit, visiting positions to see with their own eyes how the soldiers of "Anna of Kyiv" perform combat missions and operate the weapons provided by France. All the events with the creation of the 155 brigade happened before my appointment to the KSV. However, I consider it my duty to respond to the problems of the subordinate unit and solve them systematically - at all levels that depend on me," the commander said. Drapaty noted that the formation and arming "from scratch" of a new brigade together with a foreign country took place for the first time and in a fairly short time - in just a few months. "Currently, the focus is on recruiting experienced officers and commanders of all ranks. I am personally engaged in this matter. I am ready to consider everyone, contact this e-mail address: 155bde@mil.ua. The personnel of the brigade underwent coordination in difficult conditions. This was not enough to create comrades from the recruits. I was in a similar situation as a commander and I know how important it is. Especially when the brigade is already at war. Therefore, a special group of psychologists is working to strengthen the brigade commander in the units. There are certain results, for example, the return of servicemen who voluntarily left the unit. AWOL. The situation is not simple. The main challenge faced by the brigade is the low efficiency and motivation of middle-level commanders who directly manage people. This, as well as the involvement of units in combat operations, determines the number of AWOLs in the 155th Brigade. I must note that I did not observe mass cases of soldiers leaving their combat positions. Instead, I observe a certain substitution of concepts when the number of AWOLs equals cases of desertion. There is no simple recipe here - it is necessary to work on solving all the problematic issues that cause AWOL, not only in the Ground Forces, but in general in the Armed Forces. The number of AWOLs in the brigade will decrease in proportion to the decisions that will affect the combat capability and motivation of the personnel. This is a common task of the authorities and the Defense Forces, and all those responsible have received instructions," Drapaty emphasized. He announced that from today a special hotline of the Ground Forces commander for servicemen of the 155th Brigade will work. Phone: 0800-500-410 (after listening - number 5). It works from 9:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily. "And finally. I believe that the 155th brigade named after Anna of Kyiv is promising and will show itself. Yes, it takes time and the efforts of many to correct the mistakes made during the formation. But the newly created Ukrainian brigade named after Anna of Kyiv can and should become a real "Gallic rooster" - a symbol of France: proud, unbreakable, and ready to fight for freedom," the commander summarized.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile, with Russian forces making significant advances in the Donetsk region and Ukrainian forces facing challenges in maintaining their defensive lines. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region signifies a shift in momentum, with intense fighting reported near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress in the Kursk region, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. The continued pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian defensive lines. The intensification of drone warfare, with reports of new tactics and widespread activity, underscores the evolving nature of the conflict. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, represents a significant development and a potential turning point in Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets. The fire at the oil depot in Engels, which was attacked by Ukrainian drones, continues to burn fiercely, with reports of new explosions. The fire has not been extinguished for over 14 hours. A state of emergency will be introduced in Engels, Saratov region in connection with a fire at an industrial enterprise after a drone attack, the governor said. Two people died during the fire.

The geopolitical landscape is increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects the strained relations between Russia and Western countries.

The new information regarding the Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post, the ongoing drone attacks, and the geopolitical developments further emphasizes the complexity and volatility of the situation. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict. The new messages confirm the continuation of attacks on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of thirty wounded. The attacks seem to be primarily targeting civilian infrastructure. The warnings from Ukrainian officials to remain in safe places underscore the ongoing danger to civilians in the region. The involvement of the Ukrainian Air Force in issuing alerts about incoming guided aerial bombs indicates that they are actively monitoring the situation and attempting to provide early warnings. The new messages also confirm that Russian forces are continuing their attacks, with reports of six settlements in the Belgorod region coming under fire. This suggests a pattern of cross-border attacks by Ukrainian forces, potentially in retaliation for Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory. The reported damage to civilian homes and infrastructure further emphasizes the impact of the conflict on civilians caught in the crossfire. The use of drones in these attacks, as mentioned in the governor's report, highlights the increasing role of unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare. The new messages also highlight a potential information operation by Ukrainian sources, falsely claiming a hack of Rosreestr (the Russian Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre, and Cartography). The debunking of this claim by a pro-Russian hacker ("Joker DPR") underscores the ongoing information warfare between the two sides. The use of old data and fabricated reports to create panic and sow discord is a common tactic in such operations. The emphasis on not believing these "injections" further demonstrates the importance of media literacy and critical thinking in the current conflict environment. The historical anecdotes and propaganda pieces shared by various channels provide context and insight into the ongoing information warfare and attempts to shape public opinion.

Overall, the situation requires close monitoring and a reassessment of strategic objectives and resource allocation in light of the recent developments, particularly the renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region, the continued intensification of drone warfare, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Situation Report