Updated Military Situation in Ukraine - January 8th, 2025, 14:33 UTC

Strategic Overview

The military situation in Ukraine remains extremely critical for Ukrainian forces. Russian troops are making considerable progress in the Donetsk region, having fully captured Kurakhove and advancing towards Pokrovsk and Toretsk. The situation in Toretsk is particularly dire, with less than 15% of the city remaining under Ukrainian control.

In the Kursk region, a Ukrainian counteroffensive has been effectively stalled by Russian forces, with reports of heavy Ukrainian losses. The renewed Russian offensive in this area signifies a shift in momentum and a potential escalation of the conflict in the north.

Drone warfare continues to be a central element of the conflict, with extensive use by both sides. Ukrainian forces confirmed a drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, Saratov region of Russia, showcasing their capability to strike deep within Russian territory.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine.

Key Developments

Donetsk Region: Russian Advances and Critical Situation in Toretsk

Toretsk Under Severe Pressure: Less than 15% of Toretsk remains under Ukrainian control, with battles ongoing along major streets. Russian forces are reportedly advancing into the western and northern parts of the city.
Kurakhove "Factually Lost": Ukrainian journalist Butusov reports that Kurakhove is "factually lost," with Ukrainian forces struggling to defend a narrow area, including a thermal power plant.
Russian Advances Towards Pokrovsk: Russian forces are intensifying attacks near Pokrovsk, with progress reported in Novovasylivka, Yelizavetovka, and Baranovka.
Shevchenko and Ivanivka Captured: Russian forces have reportedly captured Shevchenko and Ivanivka, continuing their advance beyond Kurakhove.
Ukrainian Strike on Russian Command Post: The Ukrainian General Staff reports a successful high-precision strike on a command post of the 8th Guards Combined Arms Army of the Russian Federation in Khartsyzk, Donetsk Oblast. This facility was reportedly used by Russian forces to coordinate attacks against Ukrainian forces and civilians, particularly in Kurakhove.
Continued Clashes: Fighting continues in various locations, including near Velyka Novosilka, Dachne, Ulakly-Konstantinopol-Razliv area, Andreyevka, Petropavlovka, and Shevchenko.

Kursk Region: Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive and Renewed Russian Offensive

Stalled Ukrainian Counteroffensive: The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kursk region has stalled, with reports of heavy losses. Russian forces are consolidating positions and repelling Ukrainian attacks.
Renewed Russian Offensive: Russian forces have resumed offensive operations in the Kursk region, with a significant concentration of attacks near Nikolaevka and the outskirts of Staraya Sorochina near Malaya Loknya. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov.
Intense Fighting: Intense fighting is reported in Pogrebki, Orlovka, Staraya Sorochina, and Novaya Sorochina, with Ukrainian forces deploying reserves.
Air and Missile Activity: Air raid alerts have been issued for Voronezh, Belgorod, and Kursk Oblasts due to aviation and missile threats. Ukrainian air defenses reportedly intercepted a Ukrainian missile over Kursk Oblast.

Kharkiv Region: Russian Advances and Road Closure

Russian Advances: Russian forces report advances towards Lozova in the Izyum area.
Road Closure in Kherson Suburbs: Bus traffic has been temporarily suspended in the suburbs of Kherson (Naddniprianske, Molodizhne, Inzhenerne) due to increased shelling by Russian forces.

Luhansk Region

Russian Advances: On the Krasnolimansk direction, units of the Russian Army are developing success in Ivanovka (right bank of the Zherebets River).

Drone Warfare: Escalation and Deep Strikes

Confirmed Drone Attack in Engels, Saratov Region: A Ukrainian drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels has been confirmed, marking a significant escalation and demonstrating Ukraine's ability to strike deep inside Russian territory.
Continued Drone Activity: Reports of drone movements across multiple oblasts, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Chernihiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Kirovohrad, Odesa, Mykolaiv, Zhytomyr, Vinnytsia, and Kherson.
Air Defense Engagements: Ukrainian air defense forces are actively engaging hostile drones, with reports of activity near Kyiv and successful interceptions. Five drones were shot down in the Rostov region of Russia.
New Drone Targets: Russian drones are targeting Chernihiv and Nizhyn.
Drone Strikes: Drone operators of the 36th Army of the "Vostok" group reportedly struck a concentration of enemy personnel near Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces conducted a successful drone operation in the Kursk region, targeting a Russian T-90 tank and an ammunition depot. Russian FPV drones reportedly destroyed two Ukrainian vehicles used for ammunition resupply near Terny in the Donetsk People's Republic.

Geopolitical Developments: Shifting Alliances and Diplomatic Maneuvers

France Calls for Action Against Elon Musk: French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot has called on the European Commission to take strong measures against Elon Musk.
Ukraine Offers to Replace Hungary in EU and NATO: The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has stated that Ukraine is ready to take Hungary's place in the EU and NATO if Hungary decides to leave.
Closure of Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg: The Polish Consulate General in St. Petersburg has been officially closed.
Potential Meeting Between Scholz and Putin: Reports suggest a possible meeting between German Chancellor Scholz and Russian President Putin before February 23rd.
Poland's Defense Minister on Ramstein Format: The Polish Defense Minister suggests that the current Ramstein format for coordinating military aid to Ukraine may be the last of its kind.
EU on US-Greenland Relations: The EU, through French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot, has stated that it will not tolerate any attacks on its sovereign borders, in response to reports of US ambitions in Greenland.
Greenland's Prime Minister to Meet with Danish King: Amid statements from Trump about a possible takeover of Greenland, the Prime Minister of Greenland is scheduled to meet with the King of Denmark.

Other Significant Developments

Weather Forecast: A warming trend is forecasted for Ukraine, which could impact military operations, particularly in terms of ground mobility and logistics.
Casualties in Zaporizhzhia: One person was killed and six were wounded in a Russian attack on Zaporizhzhia.
Russian Information Operation Debunked: A Russian information operation regarding a "blogger registry" has been debunked as a Ukrainian fabrication.
Internal Political Maneuvering in Ukraine: Reported internal political maneuvering within Ukraine, particularly regarding Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, could impact the country's leadership and decision-making during the conflict.
Arrest of Mercenaries in Venezuela: Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro announced the arrest of seven foreign "mercenaries," including three Ukrainian citizens.
Asset Reclassification in Moscow: 146 specially protected natural areas in Moscow have been reclassified, removing them from federal protection and allowing for construction.
Legal Action Against Ukrainian MP: A Ukrainian MP and his former assistant are facing trial for organizing illegal border crossings.
Rheinmetall IFV: Rheinmetall will begin field testing its new Lynx infantry fighting vehicle in Ukraine.

Updated Situation

The military situation in Ukraine remains highly volatile and unfavorable for Ukrainian forces. The renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region signifies a shift in momentum, with intense fighting reported near Nikolaevka and Staraya Sorochina. Russian paratroopers are reportedly making progress in the Kursk region, pushing Ukrainian forces out of Makhnovka and Dmitryukov. The continued pressure on Toretsk and Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region highlights the ongoing threat to Ukrainian defensive lines, with Russian forces making incremental gains. The intensification of drone warfare, with reports of new tactics and widespread activity, underscores the evolving nature of the conflict. The confirmed drone attack on an industrial facility in Engels, deep inside Russian territory, represents a significant development and a potential turning point in Ukraine's ability to strike strategic targets.

The geopolitical landscape is becoming increasingly complex, with potential shifts in US and European support for Ukraine. The closure of the Polish Consulate in St. Petersburg further reflects the strained relations between Russia and Western countries.

The new information regarding the Ukrainian strike on the Russian command post, the ongoing drone attacks, and the geopolitical developments further emphasizes the complexity and volatility of the situation. The coming days and weeks will be critical in determining the future trajectory of the conflict. The new messages confirm the continuation of attacks on Zaporizhzhia, with reports of one dead and six wounded. The attacks seem to be primarily targeting civilian infrastructure. The warnings from Ukrainian officials to remain in safe places underscore the ongoing danger to civilians in the region. The involvement of the Ukrainian Air Force in issuing alerts about incoming guided aerial bombs indicates that they are actively monitoring the situation and attempting to provide early warnings. The new messages also confirm that Russian forces are continuing their attacks, with reports of six settlements in the Belgorod region coming under fire. This suggests a pattern of cross-border attacks by Ukrainian forces, potentially in retaliation for Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory. The reported damage to civilian homes and infrastructure further emphasizes the impact of the conflict on civilians caught in the crossfire. The use of drones in these attacks, as mentioned in the governor's report, highlights the increasing role of unmanned aerial systems in modern warfare. The new messages also highlight a potential information operation by Ukrainian sources, falsely claiming a hack of Rosreestr (the Russian Federal Service for State Registration, Cadastre, and Cartography). The debunking of this claim by a pro-Russian hacker ("Joker DPR") underscores the ongoing information warfare between the two sides. The use of old data and fabricated reports to create panic and sow discord is a common tactic in such operations. The emphasis on not believing these "injections" further demonstrates the importance of media literacy and critical thinking in the current conflict environment. The historical anecdotes and propaganda pieces shared by various channels provide context and insight into the ongoing information warfare and attempts to shape public opinion.

Overall, the situation requires close monitoring and a reassessment of strategic objectives and resource allocation in light of the recent developments, particularly the renewed Russian offensive in the Kursk region, the continued intensification of drone warfare, and the evolving geopolitical landscape.

Situation Report